BACATOLGY 3/4 : NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
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St Johns wins 104-77.....will it be enough to knock Utah out of the field...keep in mind the Redmen have a win over the Utes
In the last 90 seconds, Wake has cut the 8 point defecit to just 1, 68-67. Ga Tech ball with 37 sec
Ga tech turns it over again...Wake ball and they take lead....69-68...Ga Tech ball 18 sec
a 9-0 run over the last 2 minutes fighting for their at large lives
a 9-0 run over the last 2 minutes fighting for their at large lives
Ndongo erases a billion Georgia Tech mistakes and wins it. Wake choked away their tournament spot so badly.
Baye NDongo at the buzzer for the win...Ga Tech 70-69
Wake down to 18-12 is likely out of serious contention...same collapse as two years ago
Wake down to 18-12 is likely out of serious contention...same collapse as two years ago
With Wake they do get Clemson at home on Saturday so a win there will keep them around somewhat at least in consideration but very unattractive
They’ve just got so few good wins…their biggest plus was the lack of anything approaching a bad loss, but that really took a hit tonight.
notre dame is a bad loss...and it actually might move to q3
but at least they had court storming
quite frankly this conference is complete ass....the recruiting top to bottom must be atrocious
Watched a little of Pitt-Florida State ... felt like I was watching some random mid-major game
UNLV holds on. Big win over SDSU 62-58
Post game analysis saying too little too late for UNLV with too many Q4 losses
They do still have a final game against Nevada to add another quality win but I guess that still wouldn't be enough
MW 6 bids possible still though is impressive. That should be a very entertaining conference tournament
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6 wins vs teams in field including Cteightom but THREE Quad 4 losses. Ill do a paragraph on them later
I think New Mexico is on thin ice BUT alot of bubble teams floundering too
I always suspect favor-trading going on inside the selection committee. While the reps from various conferences cannot be in the room discussing their conferences' teams when they come up you know they discuss them before they come up in private conversations.
Last year Rutgers refused to adjust its schedule for Minnesota and Michigan State and the committee has Minnesota's AD Coyle on it until 2026. He wasn't going to lobby for Rutgers.. not going to trade favors, spend his favor capital, on Rutgers. But for Ohio State? That could be useful for him as Ohio State is highly influential in his conference.
We shall see. We beat em and take it out of his hands completely.. maybe.
Last year Rutgers refused to adjust its schedule for Minnesota and Michigan State and the committee has Minnesota's AD Coyle on it until 2026. He wasn't going to lobby for Rutgers.. not going to trade favors, spend his favor capital, on Rutgers. But for Ohio State? That could be useful for him as Ohio State is highly influential in his conference.
We shall see. We beat em and take it out of his hands completely.. maybe.
Its stunning how bad this conference is beyond UNC and Duke and will get even worse with additions of Cal and Stanford
Nevada is lock easily now and flying up the seed list pecking order. The loss by Boise leaves Utah State all alone in first
Danny Sprinkle (Utah St) would be my national coach of the year...I haven't read nearly enough about the job he's done this season turning over that roster and putting such a competitive team on the floor.
Will the ACC really only have four teams in? Will they bend over backwards for Pitt?
Pitt is a distant bubble....8th team out...they have just their win at Duke and at Virginia, nothing OOC which had a sos of 343 and 2 Q3 losses highlighted by bad loss to Missouri
It's remarkable how some results here and there can make a difference....namely for St Johns in the past two weeks with the rise of Villanova in the metrics. This morning I am pushing St Johns into the field and Utah out. I had them ohsoclose in my previous bracket. Utahs win vs Wake sort of fading so that was just enough given that St Johns metrics improved as did their record at 18-12 by beating De Paul and remember the Redmen did beat Utah.
Also last night New Mexico's profile got better simply because Nevada went from a bubble type team to firmly in the field and probably a 7/8 seed. New Mexico swept the Pack this year. Now I was saying earlier in the thread that New Mexico is on thin ice and they still are not secure BUT they have a whopping EIGHT wins over teams projected in the field. Nevada 2x, Utah St, San Diego St, and Colorado St. Further down in Q3 are wins over Cal Irvine WAC AQ and La Tech CUSA AQ and now Toledo is the MAC AQ. Those movements are enough for me to keep them in the field and actually put them a notch over fading Virginia whose profile I just puke at.
LAST FOUR BYES: OKLAHOMA, MICHIGAN STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, VILLANOVA
LAST FOUR IN: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA, NEW MEXICO, SETON HALL
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, IOWA, PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: COLORADO, JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, PITTSBURGH
ON DECK: MEMPHIS, OHIO STATE, DRAKE, MISSISSIPPI, UNLV, KANSAS STATE, VIRGINIA TECH
Also last night New Mexico's profile got better simply because Nevada went from a bubble type team to firmly in the field and probably a 7/8 seed. New Mexico swept the Pack this year. Now I was saying earlier in the thread that New Mexico is on thin ice and they still are not secure BUT they have a whopping EIGHT wins over teams projected in the field. Nevada 2x, Utah St, San Diego St, and Colorado St. Further down in Q3 are wins over Cal Irvine WAC AQ and La Tech CUSA AQ and now Toledo is the MAC AQ. Those movements are enough for me to keep them in the field and actually put them a notch over fading Virginia whose profile I just puke at.
LAST FOUR BYES: OKLAHOMA, MICHIGAN STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, VILLANOVA
LAST FOUR IN: SAINT JOHN'S, VIRGINIA, NEW MEXICO, SETON HALL
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, IOWA, PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: COLORADO, JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, PITTSBURGH
ON DECK: MEMPHIS, OHIO STATE, DRAKE, MISSISSIPPI, UNLV, KANSAS STATE, VIRGINIA TECH
With respect to UNLV who I now shows up on my on deck circle. I have not been including them on my analysis the past few weeks despite them just being a game out of first in the MW because of their 3 Q3 losses. I think that is a hard sell given their NET lags at 77 rather than say 50. Losses to Loyola Marymount, Southern and Air Force. Now the Stetson team is now projected AQ from the Atlantic Sun but still. I think they could overcome 2 Q4 losses but not 3 and the one that is bothering me is the 90-58 loss to #271 Air Force which is a lead sinker for their NET
Unbelievably UNLV has won 10 of their last 11 with their only loss to red hot Nevada. The win over San Diego State last night the Rebels sit in a 3 way tie for 2nd just a half game behind Utah State. There are impressive things here 5-3 i n Q1 but only 1-4 in Q2.....6 wins vs teams in the field. Non conference win over Creighton. In league wins over SD State, 2x New Mexico, at Boise State, Colorado State. At 17-10, its probably one loss too many right now. Still there is a trip to Nevada to end the season where there is still a possibilty to gain a share of the MW regular season championship.
Unbelievably UNLV has won 10 of their last 11 with their only loss to red hot Nevada. The win over San Diego State last night the Rebels sit in a 3 way tie for 2nd just a half game behind Utah State. There are impressive things here 5-3 i n Q1 but only 1-4 in Q2.....6 wins vs teams in the field. Non conference win over Creighton. In league wins over SD State, 2x New Mexico, at Boise State, Colorado State. At 17-10, its probably one loss too many right now. Still there is a trip to Nevada to end the season where there is still a possibilty to gain a share of the MW regular season championship.
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Stetson loss is now a good loss?
Loss to Air Force is bad but doesn’t
whole body of work matter?
How many teams this season have had an 11 game winning streak in a darn good competitive conference?
If SHU gets in because of Creighton win doesn’t Nevada? Yes SHU beat UConn….when center got hurt.
Last few years this conference has been fascinating.
SHU v Nova could be a good one but I believe both in. Think Providence and St.Johns both out.
But saw a Big East Tourney bracket last night whete in the 2nd round SHU plays Nova. What does Committee do with that?
Ignore it and if they do ignore then why even play? It’s not like Rutgers beat Michigan on a neutral court last year avenging a prior bad loss… But we can’t win without Mag. What trash!
Loss to Air Force is bad but doesn’t
whole body of work matter?
How many teams this season have had an 11 game winning streak in a darn good competitive conference?
If SHU gets in because of Creighton win doesn’t Nevada? Yes SHU beat UConn….when center got hurt.
Last few years this conference has been fascinating.
SHU v Nova could be a good one but I believe both in. Think Providence and St.Johns both out.
But saw a Big East Tourney bracket last night whete in the 2nd round SHU plays Nova. What does Committee do with that?
Ignore it and if they do ignore then why even play? It’s not like Rutgers beat Michigan on a neutral court last year avenging a prior bad loss… But we can’t win without Mag. What trash!
New Mexicos has 3 Q3 losses...most schools can overcome one, you can overcome 2 if you have some great metric and quad numbers or overall record. UNLV has bad metrics, middling quad numbers in Q1/2 and poor overall record at 17-10. They have THREE...you cant lose at home to a horrible team by 32 points.
SHU is going to dance if they beat Nova, a Nova loss and they are still in the field for now but they flip spots as Nova goes to first four
i do not think conference tourney play will matter all that much
They shouldn’t even have 4. The hoos should be bounced out. I don’t get why they get the love they do. Their shooting makes Rutgers look good. I think if Iowa continues to win they could replace UVA.
It will be interesting to see. Would love to see them get screwed as a conf and only get
Would love to see the ACC fans heads explode if they are reduced to three bids.
That makes sense.
Always have suspected tournaments don’t matter and really just a gigantic money grab.
Useless. B1G biggest farce of all as firmly believe as last tourney played it hurts us.
When I rule the world every team season will end on last day. No conference tournaments. I’d make a brand new MArch Madness!
362 teams play DIV 1 hoops.
256 March Madness tourney!
256-128-64-32-16-8-4-2-1
Last 100 don’t deserve in and eliminate the dregs. It would suck to 257 but thems the breaks. Nobody would care.
Use Kempom or NeT or Committee
Still Seed as Committee deems fit 1 to 256, but to make sure regular season schedule matters your seed is determinate on your finish in conference.
So Purdue this year must be highest seeded B1G team. Committee still determines ranking/seeding/S curve yet Illinois must the be next seeded B1G team and so on. Regular season matters. Leagues could determine tiebreakers.
Play all those additional games when the conference tournament games were played.
I may have too much time on my hands and think way too much.
I suppose would dilute Power conference power but maybe not if every power conference team makes the field?
Always have suspected tournaments don’t matter and really just a gigantic money grab.
Useless. B1G biggest farce of all as firmly believe as last tourney played it hurts us.
When I rule the world every team season will end on last day. No conference tournaments. I’d make a brand new MArch Madness!
362 teams play DIV 1 hoops.
256 March Madness tourney!
256-128-64-32-16-8-4-2-1
Last 100 don’t deserve in and eliminate the dregs. It would suck to 257 but thems the breaks. Nobody would care.
Use Kempom or NeT or Committee
Still Seed as Committee deems fit 1 to 256, but to make sure regular season schedule matters your seed is determinate on your finish in conference.
So Purdue this year must be highest seeded B1G team. Committee still determines ranking/seeding/S curve yet Illinois must the be next seeded B1G team and so on. Regular season matters. Leagues could determine tiebreakers.
Play all those additional games when the conference tournament games were played.
I may have too much time on my hands and think way too much.
I suppose would dilute Power conference power but maybe not if every power conference team makes the field?
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I am stunned watching Wake collapse. UVA is not much better. Their pace is problematic but if you can adjust so beatable. Agree with you.
My only hesitancy is last year everybody said the ACC was awful. Turns out the league was quite good in the tourney. Makes me wonder if leagues are really just manipulating NET and Quadrants. Clemson coach might be on to something.
