BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***

[Greene Rice FIG]

Good wins always trump bad losses

They should be equal.

If I were NCAA president for a day it would be simple.

Take the expected win percentage of the 42nd best team against the opponent.

If you win you get + (1 minus expected win percentage)
If you lose you get - expected win percentage.

If RU beats Purdue they get +.9 points
If RU loses at Purdue they get -.1 points

If Ru beats Temple they get .25 points
If Ru beats Temple they get -.75 points

1-1 is .15 points either way
2-0 is 1.15 points either way
0-2 is -.85 points either way

Your schedule should be very important and total wins and total losses should be very important.

How did you do with the schedule you created? Not who did you beat!

 

[RUtrumpet92]

I value wins against tougher competition more than losing to top opponents while beating average ones. Show me you are capable of beating a top 20-30 team, not just avoid losses to teams in the 80-150 range. It's one reason I was skeptcial of WVU's bid chances before the win last night. Sure, they have a lot of Q1 games using the current system, but they were 4-12 in those games. Ehh... as has been said here, at some point you need to book some wins, too. Duke is another one, only 2-7 in Q1.

Back to Rutgers - as long as we win at Minnesota, I feel we are a LOCK. Beat NW and make the B1G semis and I think we can make a run at a #6 or #7 seed. Lose to NW and the first B1G game, I don't know if we fall below the 9 seed.

And I will take the "dreaded" 8/9 game ALL DAY over a return to Dayton.

 

[bac2therac]

Wins vs the field is coveted

 

[goru7]

The Committee values top wins against their top seeds to show you can play with and win to get to the Sweet 16 . Our 4 ranked wins in a row last year brought us into the tourney , as a team that could get there , plus very slightly finishing 4th in conference . Our losing to Lafayette plus other Quad 3 losses plus the first round loss in BIG 10 tourney in a blowout to Iowa got us moved from last 10 or an 11 seed not in Dayton to the First Four against Notre dame. I never thought we would be in Dayton when the regular season ended. Think we got a little screwed.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Good wins always trump bad losses

If you spell ventriloquist right and then spell cat wrong you are out of the spelling bee.

 

[bac2therac]

The Committee values top wins against their top seeds to show you can okay with and win to get to the Sweet 16 . Our 4 ranked wins in a row last year brought us into the tourney , as a team that could get there , plus very slightly finishing 4th in conference . Our losing to Lafayette plus other Quad 3 losses plus the first round loss in BIG 10 tourney in a blowout to Iowa got us moved from last 10 or an 11 seed not in Dayton to the First Four against Notre dame. I never thought we would be in Dayton when the regular season ended. Think we got a little screwed.

Thats why Illinois will get get a good seed unless they falter badly down the stretch

 

[G- RUnit]

The Committee values top wins against their top seeds to show you can okay with and win to get to the Sweet 16 . Our 4 ranked wins in a row last year brought us into the tourney , as a team that could get there , plus very slightly finishing 4th in conference . Our losing to Lafayette plus other Quad 3 losses plus the first round loss in BIG 10 tourney in a blowout to Iowa got us moved from last 10 or an 11 seed not in Dayton to the First Four against Notre dame. I never thought we would be in Dayton when the regular season ended. Think we got a little screwed.

It was ridiculous especially when Iowa won the tournament. Why they chose to punish RU was uncalled for.

 

[kcg88]

The Committee values top wins against their top seeds to show you can play with and win to get to the Sweet 16 . Our 4 ranked wins in a row last year brought us into the tourney , as a team that could get there , plus very slightly finishing 4th in conference . Our losing to Lafayette plus other Quad 3 losses plus the first round loss in BIG 10 tourney in a blowout to Iowa got us moved from last 10 or an 11 seed not in Dayton to the First Four against Notre dame. I never thought we would be in Dayton when the regular season ended. Think we got a little screwed.

Not by the committee. Virginia Tech and Richmond won their conference tournaments and created two more autobids than there would have been. Without those we would've been seeded higher. That's why being Last 4 In is always dicey.

 

[kcg88]

Clemson down 12 at Virginia. NC State down 12 at Duke. Hope everyone used pencil writing the Wolfpack in.

 

[kcg88]

Wake Forest unfortunately not helping us out, losing at home to Boston College. Could've used them climbing 7 spots in the NET to get to Q2.

 

[pigmasty83]

Indiana came out for 2nd half flying but couldn’t capitalize and Iowa destroying them now. Kupp can’t defend Murray at all.

 

[RU23]

There is a world where Clemson finishes with 24 wins and doesn’t make NCAA’s.

 

[bac2therac]

this is the kind of win that will push Iowa to the 7 line and depending how they finish maybe a 6

 

[bac2therac]

Queens looking to pull the upset and send top seed Kennesaw State to the NIT in the Atlantic Sun tourney

 

[G- RUnit]

Saw them against Cuse and they looked so good. Nice win against State. Maybe Duke wins ACC? Think they could beat Miami or Pitt. Might be too little too late.

 

[G- RUnit]

Queens looking to pull the upset and send top seed Kennesaw State to the NIT in the Atlantic Sun tourney

Where is Queens from? I don’t ever remember them?

 

[kcg88]

Where is Queens from? I don’t ever remember them?

Charlotte NC. First year in D1.

 

[GRU23]

Queens is having a great first D1 season

 

[bac2therac]

Where is Queens from? I don’t ever remember them?

Queens University of Charlotte...first year in Atlantic Sun ineligible for ncaa

 

[G- RUnit]

Aaah! Thanks all!!

Just looked it up on the Inter-web. Lol.

Queens Royals from Charlotte….

They have to play ODU!!!

 

[kcg88]

Virginia didn't make a FG in the final like 5 minutes but they're gonna hang on over Clemson. The Tigers need to win the ACC tournament to make the tournament.

 

[RU23]

Duke-NC State is over.

NC State’s resume is vomit-worthy. Similar to last 4 in USC.

They’re lucky Dayton and Vandy turned out to be decent giving them some OK non-conference wins.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

This is what puzzles me. NC St will now be 2-6 or so in Q1. And one of those was VT and two wins versus the field. if we lost out, we’d still have 6-7 wins v the field and 6 Q1. Explain why nc state would make it over us - assuming they maybe beat another q2 team and lose again in a q1.

 

[kcg88]

Wake Forest came all the way back to tie it but Boston College got this at the end to win it.

 

[bac2therac]

This is what puzzles me. NC St will now be 2-6 or so in Q1. And one of those was VT and two wins versus the field. if we lost out, we’d still have 6-7 wins v the field and 6 Q1. Explain why nc state would make it over us - assuming they maybe beat another q2 team and lose again in a q1.

well dont assume they would make it...they are in a bit of trouble. Probably need one acc tourney win to avoid that.

 

[bac2therac]

I suppose after getting to 23-7 its time to start mentioning VCU as an at large possibility if they do not win the A10 tourney. I realize there is nothing on this resume at all but....

They did beat Pitt and have two possible wins over AQs in Kennesaw State and Howard

 

[kcg88]

Queens dude just pulled from the logo to cut it to 1 with 3.7 seconds left and a timeout. ESPN+.

 

[kcg88]

I suppose after getting to 23-7 its time to start mentioning VCU as an at large possibility if they do not win the A10 tourney. I realize there is nothing on this resume at all but....

They did beat Pitt and have two possible wins over AQs in Kennesaw State and Howard

I thought about them today too. Zero Q1 wins and two Q4 losses is so ugly though.

 

[kcg88]

Kennesaw State choked hard but survives. They missed both free throws but Queens couldn't get a good look at a buzzer beater. KSU is a significant underdog to #2 seed Liberty to earn the autobid for that league.

 

[kcg88]

1 for 10!

 

[bac2therac]

Duke-NC State is over.

NC State’s resume is vomit-worthy. Similar to last 4 in USC.

They’re lucky Dayton and Vandy turned out to be decent giving them some OK non-conference wins.

the only difference is NC State has a clean resume...no loss outside of Q2, although losing to Syracuse isnt good.

But yeah actually one can say ASU and USC have better wins. Would have to think UNC could be the one taking their spot

 

[koko2315]

Queens University of Charlotte...first year in Atlantic Sun ineligible for ncaa

So if they run the table and win, conference can select their best and send yes?

 

[bac2therac]

Tennessee player went down with what looked like a bad non contact knee injury

 

[bac2therac]

So if they run the table and win, conference can select their best and send yes?

well that wont happen but I think they take the team that also made the finals

 

[CoralKnight]

According to the A-Sun rules, if either transitional team were to win the tournament, the automatic NCAA bid would go to the regular season champion. In this case, Kennesaw State.

 

[G- RUnit]

Conference tournaments are stupid.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Conference tournaments are stupid.

Conference tournaments are exciting!

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Do we want seton hall to win for our NET or lose to get no where near us if we end up near bubble.

 

[bac2therac]

not sure they are going to move up all that much, id rather not have them think they are going to gain momentum and make a run

guess you can look at it two ways but i cant root for them right now

 

[bac2therac]

Texas A&M and Mississippi State trailing bottom feeders by a point in the 2nd half