BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***

[Mr Magoo]

If you are going to punish us using the eye test then you have to do the same with Charleston if they lose. Very soft and unimpressive.

They beat VT by 2 and lost to UNC by 16. That’s it. 30-3 but garbage schedule and no impressive wins. They can’t take two from the CAA.

 

[fatsam98]

ND up 4 with 3 left

Winner of that one gets fellow bubble team NC State next.

 

[fatsam98]

If you are going to punish us using the eye test then you have to do the same with Charleston if they lose. Very soft and unimpressive.

Yeah between last night and tonight ... I was expecting way more

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

What does COC resume look like

 

[kcg88]

What does COC resume look like

Zero good wins. But a 30 win team has never been left out.

 

[kcg88]

Charleston back within 1

 

[fatsam98]

Fun game. Wish I could enjoy it without having to worry about the bubble

 

[bac2therac]

Zero good wins. But a 30 win team has never been left out.

its actually 29

 

[kcg88]

its actually 29

CBSSN broadcast has them at 30-3, I guess one was non-D1?

 

[bac2therac]

Northern Kentucky beats Cleveland State to dance from the Horizon League

 

[bac2therac]

CBSSN broadcast has them at 30-3, I guess one was non-D1?

yes...so team sheet says 29

 

[King of S]

Charleston playing tough!

 

[fatsam98]

Va Tech beats Notre Dame by 3. Mike Brey's last game in charge.

Hokies get NC State next...

 

[King of S]

FDU loses but still gets on.

 

[kcg88]

I love that they check whether time expired or if there should be 0.2 seconds left in a 5 point game but the OSU disaster was just allowed to happen. Great system, no notes.

 

[fatsam98]

Charleston prevails!

Oral Roberts up 18-5 six minutes in

 

[kcg88]

Oral Roberts out to an 18-5 start. Hopefully less of a sweat in that one.

 

[bac2therac]

Va Tech beats Notre Dame by 3. Mike Brey's last game in charge.

Hokies get NC State next...

NC State needs this game. Va Tech actually beat some of these upper level acc schools this year....take away a loss or 2 and they are not far off

 

[fatsam98]

Oral Roberts out to an 18-5 start. Hopefully less of a sweat in that one.

Caught a break that NDSU knocked off SDSU last night with this one

 

[StevieB160]

All 7pm champ games down to the last minute

 

[bac2therac]

Charleston welcome to the 12 line. I really hope they dont match them up with St Marys or San Diego State. Note Oral Roberts cannot play St Marys as they played during the regular season

 

[fatsam98]

NC State needs this game. Va Tech actually beat some of these upper level acc schools this year....take away a loss or 2 and they are not far off

Yeah, glad VaTech won tonight, hopefully they take down NCST

 

[bac2therac]

Duke can get a 5 so that would be an interesting matchup

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

I love that they check whether time expired or if there should be 0.2 seconds left in a 5 point game but the OSU disaster was just allowed to happen. Great system, no notes.

And CoC had the ball lol.

 

[fatsam98]

Oral Roberts now up 37-12 with 7 minutes left in the first half

 

[fatsam98]

Zags up on St Mary's 26-12 at the under 8 timeout

 

[Plum Street]

Gonzaga up big . Like they always seem to do against st Mary’s in this tournament .
The horn in that arena is annoying

This is a fun week to be in Vegas. Lots of options to go to games . WCC , pac 12 , MW

 

[RU23]

Oral Roberts now up 37-12 with 7 minutes left in the first half

Good.

 

[Plum Street]

Brey on postgame mentioned his comment Irish whiskey that he said after the “rutgers” game . That a bunch of people sent him whiskey after that.
Man that loss still stings

 

[bac2therac]

Gonzaga up big . Like they always seem to do against st Mary’s in this tournament .
The horn in that arena is annoying

This is a fun week to be in Vegas. Lots of options to go to games . WCC , pac 12 , MW

Oh i find it comforting ..you know we are close when you hear it

 

[Erial_Lion]

Charleston welcome to the 12 line. I really hope they dont match them up with St Marys or San Diego State. Note Oral Roberts cannot play St Marys as they played during the regular season

I won’t be surprised if Oral lands as an 11…tough matchup for whoever gets them.

 

[bac2therac]

Oral Roberts cruises

Gonzaga in a rout. Question will be is St Marys a 5 or 6

 

[Erial_Lion]

Did this analysis elsewhere, but figured I'd paste it here too...

23* of the 32 conferences have no realistic chance of a "bid stealer" (for purposes of this, I consider a bid stealer to be a team that would almost certainly miss the NCAA tourney unless they win their conference tournament...teams that could play their way in like Michigan, North Carolina, etc aren't part of this analysis). I put the (*) because I guess that VCU losing in the A10 Championship game might give them some extremely remote chance of getting a bid, but it's very unlikely...the other 22 are almost certainly safe. With the remaining 9 conferences, here are KenPom's odds of us seeing a bid stolen...

• American - ??? (Anyone other than Houston or Memphis) - Ken hasn't released this one's projections yet. Bart has it at 17.8% of one of those two losing, with the biggest challenger being Cincinnati at 7.3%.
• ACC - 6.3% (Anyone other than Miami, Virginia, Clemson, Duke, Pitt, NC St, North Carolina) - Biggest risks seem to be Wake Forest and Virginia Tech...some might argue that Virginia Tech might even have a chance with a loss in the Title game, but they should still be on the outside looking in.
• Big 12 - 2.8% (Only if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins it) - those are the only two that need to win this tourney to get in, and Texas Tech is a bit in peril. Still, I'm rooting for both of those two to win their first game, and then get knocked out.
• Big East - 6.3% (Anyone other than Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, or Providence) - this doesn't include Villanova or Seton Hall, as they both need to win it to have a realistic chance in my mind. Nova at 2.8%, Seton Hall at 2.5%, and no one else over 1%.
• Big Ten - 1.6% (Only Nebraska, Ohio St, and Minnesota) - Ohio St makes up 1.1% of it.
• Conference USA - 58.4% (Only Florida Atlantic) - you could make an argument that North Texas might be ok with a loss to FAU in the title game, but it seems like a pretty big longshot. This is obviously the big one that everyone will be sweating, as Florida Atlantic is making the field either way. North Texas is at 24.5%, UAB at 22.6% (luckily they would meet in the semi), and no one else above 5%. Go FAU!!!
• Mountain West - 8.4% (Anyone other than San Diego St, Boise St, Utah St, Nevada, and New Mexico) - Could argue that New Mexico doesn't belong here since they still might not get in with a loss in the title game (their odds of winning it are 6.9%). Otherwise, most of this 8.4% is made up of UNLV/San Jose St making a big run.
• PAC 12 - 8.9% (Anyone other than UCLA, Arizona, USC, Oregon, or Arizona St) - Washington St, Colorado, and Utah all have between a 2 and 4% chance.
• SEC - 1% (Anyone other than Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Vandy, Auburn, Miss St, or Arkansas) - Keeping Vandy in here since I see a pretty strong case should they lose in the title game (or even the semi possibly). Only team we need to realistically sweat is Myreon Jones and Florida at 1%. The other 4 are all less than .1%.

That leaves us with an expectation of about 1.1 bids stolen. The chances of having no bids stolen would be about 24%. Conference USA is the obvious one to watch, then the AAC, with four other conferences between 6 and 9 percent.

 

[motorb54]

Isn't Wisconsin 0-5 vs. the top 4 Big Ten teams?
(Rutgers is 4-3. Unbalanced scheduling.)
Can't see how the Badgers get in unless they beat Ohio State AND Iowa.

 

[fatsam98]

Well this is interesting. Bracketville Dave has us as a 12 seed in Dayton (vs Wiscy) this morning.

Win and we'd be in Albany vs #5 TCU.

 

[RUsojo]

Va Tech beats Notre Dame by 3. Mike Brey's last game in charge.

Hokies get NC State next...

ACC is a slight worry anyone can win that tournament

 

[fatsam98]

ACC is a slight worry anyone can win that tournament

I could see UNC winning it. Their path to the final avoids Miami and Duke.

 

[kcg88]

Boston College did everyone a big favor beating Wake Forest last year. They got another in the tank today?

Their big man is day to day with a sprained ankle. Didn't play against Louisville. Without him they've got no shot.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

FWIW.....Ohio State is a 2 point favorite vs Wisconsin tonight.

 

[RutgersNo1]

Boston College did everyone a big favor beating Wake Forest last year. They got another in the tank today?

Their big man is day to day with a sprained ankle. Didn't play against Louisville. Without him they've got no shot.

Steve Forbes was told by the committee that Wake Forest had to win the ACC to secure a bid last year.