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BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***

so FAU is going to get an at large if they are upset today and yet they are an underdog to a UAB team that is nowhere to be found as a possible at-large? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Seems like FAU is a fraud…
 
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Correct. It's just a happy accident that we are rooting for favorites today (although FAU, the most important one probably, is a slight underdog in the actual betting markets)
Happy accident? If you are rooting against bid stealers and bubble teams on this weekend, they are usually going to be underdogs
 
so FAU is going to get an at large if they are upset today and yet they are an underdog to a UAB team that is nowhere to be found as a possible at-large? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Seems like FAU is a fraud…
UAB is pretty good. Getting all these teams/games confused. I think UAB had an injury, but now are healthy
 
so FAU is going to get an at large if they are upset today and yet they are an underdog to a UAB team that is nowhere to be found as a possible at-large? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Seems like FAU is a fraud…
That’s why metrics can be garbage. Teams get rewarded by beating bad teams if they beat them 100% of the time. They also get rewarded by pummeling bad teams into submission, which is just a matter of not playing your bench.
You should try to get the best 68 teams, and Cinderellas should be only for the conference champion auto-bids unless you have played a semi-competitive schedule.
 
so FAU is going to get an at large if they are upset today and yet they are an underdog to a UAB team that is nowhere to be found as a possible at-large? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Seems like FAU is a fraud…
Team quality does not equal team resume
 
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There aren't going to be four bid stealers
Talking about Dayton.

The only thing that keep us out of the 68 if the committee changes the way they do things OR they look at Rutgers post Mag and knows they aren’t a top 32-33 type team.

They had a committee member on CBSsports network (Wally Szerbiak scares me!) and he actually referenced injuries making teams worse and they want to pick the best teams.

Made me pause
 
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Talking about Dayton.

The only thing that keep us out of the 68 if the committee changes the way they do things OR they look at Rutgers post Mag and knows they aren’t a top 32-33 type team.

They had a committee member on CBSsports network (Wally Szerbiak scares me!) and he actually referenced injuries making teams worse and they want to pick the best teams.

Made me pause
Good, if they want to pick the best teams, then FAU has no shot at an at large if they lose today. Their 30 wins against mostly garbage teams would go out the window.

Also, we have proven we can be very good without Mag.
 
That’s why metrics can be garbage. Teams get rewarded by beating bad teams if they beat them 100% of the time. They also get rewarded by pummeling bad teams into submission, which is just a matter of not playing your bench.
You should try to get the best 68 teams, and Cinderellas should be only for the conference champion auto-bids unless you have played a semi-competitive schedule.
If you're referring to Florida Atlantic, you're selling them short. They definitely deserve to be in the field.
 
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The more I think about it the more I am convinced. We are the last bye…..no matter how many bid thieves we have.

They aren’t making us 20-13 and putting us ahead of PSU, but they aren’t going to send us to Dayton.

Why make a statement of there is no meaning behind it.

I’ll still root for FAU, but I am confident (not 100%, or even 80!) we are 11 seed not in Dayton.
You've been reading my posts, lol. Been saying this since it happened, i.e., the "loss" would be our tiebreaker if we were right on the edge of being in (keeping us out of Dayton) or right on the edge of being out of the tourney completely (keeping us in Dayton).

I obviously have no direct knowledge of this, but I know how humans evaluate things and everyone knows that "loss" was a once in 5-10 year event, which will likely change the review rules (and not a run-of-the-mill poor judgment call which happens all the time in games) and will be accounted for by the Committee, even if ever so slightly.
 
Good, if they want to pick the best teams, then FAU has no shot at an at large if they lose today. Their 30 wins against mostly garbage teams would go out the window.
FAU would be favored on a neutral court against many teams that will get an at-large bid if they played them tonight (most likely including Rutgers, though it would be close).
 
Good, if they want to pick the best teams, then FAU has no shot at an at large if they lose today. Their 30 wins against mostly garbage teams would go out the window.

Also, we have proven we can be very good without Mag.
Aren’t we 3-6 without him with losses to Nebraska and Michigan at home and Minnesota away?
 
Good, if they want to pick the best teams, then FAU has no shot at an at large if they lose today. Their 30 wins against mostly garbage teams would go out the window.

Also, we have proven we can be very good without Mag.
I thought no team with 29 wins has ever been left out. ? 30?
 
You've been reading my posts, lol. Been saying this since it happened, i.e., the "loss" would be our tiebreaker if we were right on the edge of being in (keeping us out of Dayton) or right on the edge of being out of the tourney completely (keeping us in Dayton).

I obviously have no direct knowledge of this, but I know how humans evaluate things and everyone knows that "loss" was a once in 5-10 year event, which will likely change the review rules (and not a run-of-the-mill poor judgment call which happens all the time in games) and will be accounted for by the Committee, even if ever so slightly.
I’d much rather be 20-13 and not be hoping the selection committee throws us a bone.
 
i

 
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Aren’t we 3-6 without him with losses to Nebraska and Michigan at home and Minnesota away?
Yes. We had an adjustment period which is to be expected. We also won games at Wisky (without Caleb also), and Penn State and most recently beat bubble-team Michigan on a neutral court and played within 5 points of a projected 1 seed.
 
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I thought no team with 29 wins has ever been left out. ? 30?
Perhaps. That doesn’t mean it’s right. Look at their schedule. It’s ridiculous. They won by 3 at Florida in the 3rd game of the season…and that’s it. Absolutely nothing else. They only played one other major conference team in Mississippi and lost by 13.
 
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Talking about Dayton.

The only thing that keep us out of the 68 if the committee changes the way they do things OR they look at Rutgers post Mag and knows they aren’t a top 32-33 type team.

They had a committee member on CBSsports network (Wally Szerbiak scares me!) and he actually referenced injuries making teams worse and they want to pick the best teams.

Made me pause

I really doubt it. How could they do that without also dismissing the Temple game where we were missing 2 32+ mpg ball handlers?

Mag is a 24 mpg guy and his paper stats aren’t eye popping. We have 3 quality wins away from home - 2road wins and a neutral. And closed out the game at MSG (more than half of it) without Mag. Just lost to a potential 1 seed by 5 while the rest of the bubble bowed out in blow out fashion.

The committee wasn’t expecting us to win @ Illinois or @ Indiana regardless. So we sucked vs Seton Hall at full strength on a given day. Not seeing the committee viewing Nebraska as different and because we lost Mag - especially since it was during a stretch when they were hot. The Minny collapse was devastating and made national news. Only RU could lose that way (they made 6 straight 3s and our +90% FT shooter bombed). Nobody is attributing the way that one ended to Mag’s absence though.
 
Yes. We had an adjustment period which is to be expected. We also won games at Wisky (I though Caleb also), and Penn State and most recently beat bubble-team Michigan on a neutral court and played wi the in 5 points of a 1 seed.
Yes but we were 3-6 and bart and kenpom would have us right around 100 over those 9 games
 
Yes but we were 3-6 and bart and kenpom would have us right around 100 over those 9 games
I think our showing in the B1G tournament trumps that. IMO, it was huge that we followed up the Michigan win with a very respectable showing vs. Purdue. We can’t be expected to beat a 1 seed but we were right there.

To me, that substantially negates the Mag factor and puts the focus back on “body of work”.
 
Aren’t we 3-6 without him with losses to Nebraska and Michigan at home and Minnesota away?

He went out in the first half of the Michigan State game. Can’t ignore that one. He was a role player on the roster from a paper perspective. We didn’t lose a “star”. Teams go through ups and downs all season. We ended with 2 solid showings.

The way we lost Minny got national attention. Mag wasn’t helping us win that game. Everyone and their mother knows that. We were up 12+ most of the game. We turned the ball over and they couldn’t miss from 3 AND Cam missed a critical FT along with I think Caleb. All those things had to happen for us to lose and Mag had nothing to do with any of them. He’s a terrible ball handler. Would not have helped us avoid those stupid turnovers.
 
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