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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

bac2therac
RU848789 said:
Please try to read and understand before posting. I never said you were biased with your bracketology posts. What I said was that simply discussing possibilities as you do in those threads and I do in these threads doesn't equate to bias. The rest of your post above is gobbledygook crap. I've mentioned all of those possibilities and I've said uncertainty is high and a whiff or mostly rain are risks. And I've only started mentioning the Euro AIFS model this winter because it's finally available on Pivotal and is doing quite well. And I look at the ICON as simply another input, which is flawed, but has shown some accuracy in some situations (like most models). You are, however, quite biased against snow and it shows regularly in your posts and is why you get banned on the weather boards.
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im not banned on americanwx so what are you talking about.....if 33 and rain banned me it was because i question climate change policies and they seem to have a free speech issue...do they even have a board anymore

again the ICON is considered a joke by most, yet all of a sudden this year you are referencing it when I really do not recall you paying attention to it
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

bac2therac
WhiteBus said:
I guess you never watched the Philly news stations. They aren't lazy. They all talk about what all models are saying are saying. As I already said it was mentioned by one (6ABC) this morning. The don't rely on one or two. They are actual professional meteorologists. That wasn't always the case. We did have John Bolaris here years ago who was a worst case scenario weatherman. Besides other issues he was finally fired after a horrendous Memorial Day weekend forecast that called for heavy rains and people cancelled plans. Instead in reality it was a partly sunny weekend.
Sadly we lost Chris Sowers, who was excellent, to a station in West Palm a few months ago.
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I remember the days of Herb Clarke who guided me through my favorite storm of all time the February 1983 snowdump.
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

WhiteBus
RU848789 said:
No, they're just generally biased towards the Euro and GFS and IMO ignoring the rest of the guidance and not even mentioning snow possibility is just lazy. But you're absolutely right that bitter cold next week is a lock, while several inches of snow on Sunday is still in question - I've said that several times. I also see no issue in discussing snowfall possibilities, though, either. And I have no clue what you're saying about the NWS - as of 4 am, they're still saying any snowfall would likely be minor - but they'll change that tune by 4 pm, should we see the 12Z models come to a decent consensus on a moderate snowfall, especially the Euro and GFS.
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I guess you never watched the Philly news stations. They aren't lazy. They all talk about what all models are saying are saying. As I already said it was mentioned by one (6ABC) this morning. The don't rely on one or two. They are actual professional meteorologists. That wasn't always the case. We did have John Bolaris here years ago who was a worst case scenario weatherman. Besides other issues he was finally fired after a horrendous Memorial Day weekend forecast that called for heavy rains and people cancelled plans. Instead in reality it was a partly sunny weekend.
Sadly we lost Chris Sowers, who was excellent, to a station in West Palm a few months ago.
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OT: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January

bac2therac
RU848789 said:
Mid-single digits in Central Park's UHI (urban heat island) likely means below 0F readings almost everywhere else. It's going to get quite cold if the Euro is right, as per below and we're only 5-6 days out so this is a solid forecast. We also don't often see a CPC graphic for the next 6-10 days being that cold...

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early January 2014 was quite cold actually it was the 7th and 8th time frame, we had a funeral for my great aunt and the temps at 10AM was like 7 degrees with alot of wind so only a few strong men went to the actual site for the burial leaving the women and old folk behind at the church. Remember stretch of days in the teens for highs, that may be the last sustained frigid we had but I could be wrong on that..i know we have had other days in the teens for highs since.

The first frigid episode began on the 3rd, when late in the evening Walpack (Sussex) dropped to -12° and Pequest (Warren) reached -8°. By the morning of the 4th the temperature bottomed out at -13° in Walpack and -12° at Pequest. Kingwood (Hunterdon) was -10° and 28 other stations dropped below zero on the 4th. The “mildest" location in the state was Atlantic City Marina (Atlantic) at 13°. Walpack fell to -8° on the 5th and Pequest -5°.

Following the brief warm up on the 6th, minimums again fell below zero at some locations on the 7th, including -6° at High Point Monument (Sussex) and -5° at High Point (300 feet lower than the Monument station). Accompanying the cold on the 7th was strong wind that resulted in dangerous wind chills as low as -27° at the Monument at 11 AM, when the temperature was -4° with a wind speed of 20 mph. Wind chills of -10° to -20° (colder in gusts) were common across NJ during the daylight hours of the 7th, when thermometers across most of the state sat in the single digits. For instance at noon, temperatures ranged from -3° at High Point Monument to 12° in West Cape May (Cape May). These were the coldest daylight hours in NJ since January 19, 1994. The cold continued into the 8th, with lows of -4° at Walpack and -3° at the Monument, an interesting pair of minimums. The cold at Walpack is indicative of cold air pooling in valleys while High Point Monument is often the coldest location when cold air sweeps into the region, with winds at these times stirring up the lower atmosphere and minimizing cold air drainage into valleys.
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

RU848789
bac2therac said:
what biases do i have in my bracketology...bring receipts on that. I treat Rutgers and the Big 10 fairly Bracketology and weather are not the same. You are rooting for a moderate type event here and it shows. That CMC solution on the maps would be big trouble for our area with big slops. You are rushing to the ensembles to try and explain away the OP of gfs /euro and bringing up the Euro AI in a way to try to justify a bigger event. And yes the Euro AI has scored well of late, its just that I really dont recall you bringing it up much before and I also dont recall you using the Icon regularly like you do now. Its been all over the map with this event thus far and is trash like the JMA. Its only used in the winter by weenies on the weather boards really. This isnt a tropical event. When was the last winter storm that someone said boy the Icon sure bitchslapped the other models on this event.
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Please try to read and understand before posting. I never said you were biased with your bracketology posts. What I said was that simply discussing possibilities as you do in those threads and I do in these threads doesn't equate to bias. The rest of your post above is gobbledygook crap. I've mentioned all of those possibilities and I've said uncertainty is high and a whiff or mostly rain are risks. And I've only started mentioning the Euro AIFS model this winter because it's finally available on Pivotal and is doing quite well. And I look at the ICON as simply another input, which is flawed, but has shown some accuracy in some situations (like most models). You are, however, quite biased against snow and it shows regularly in your posts and is why you get banned on the weather boards.
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OT: New York Mets 2024-2025 Off Season Thread

cubuffsdoug
Zak57 said:
Right but you dont know what numbers are real and what aren't. You have no idea if Stearns is beating Alonso into the ground. If they end up making a deal it will be palatable for both sides. If they don't then by all means flame on.
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Enough info from both sides have been leaked to know now it's a "who has the bigger set of balls." You know as well as everyone else knows the Mets were clear they were willing to pay a little more as long as it was a short term deal. Pete and Boras have blinked and the years are in the Mets favor. Now it the dollar amount that must be settled. The Mets put out a number a few weeks ago and now it seems Boras has come back with similar numbers, but it seems the Mets have moved the goal post once again. I'm not in favor of either side because it's part of doing business in a professional sport. Still, you have be in denial to see the Mets are playing with fire after having won the battle they had with Boras and Pete. Any opportunity to strengthen the lineup is disappearing as other options sign with other teams. Stringing Pete along for $2 or $3 million less a year goes to the old saying, "swallow elephants whole, while choking to death over a gnat."
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Legal NIL Turning The Tide Towards The B1G

bigmatt718
www.cbssports.com

The Big Ten's weaponization of clean cash -- and lots of it -- is shifting power dynamics from South to North

The Big Ten can pay players now -- guilt-free. Does it mean the end of the SEC's utter dominance?
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

B1G played chess, the SEC played checkers, and the ACC played Chutes and Ladders in the game of conference expansion/realignment. Now finish the job circa 2030 by getting UVA/UNC to shut out the SEC in VA/NC, two growing states.
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

RU848789
Mid-single digits in Central Park's UHI (urban heat island) likely means below 0F readings almost everywhere else. It's going to get quite cold if the Euro is right, as per below and we're only 5-6 days out so this is a solid forecast. We also don't often see a CPC graphic for the next 6-10 days being that cold. Just posted this in the pattern thread, but that one will likely fall by the wayside a bit soon.

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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

R
chickenpatty2 said:
Reminds me of my dad dropping me back off from winter break during my freshman year. Got there early, dorms not open yet as confirmed by a maintenance guy doing some shoveling. Dad took me to Burger King down on Easton Ave. in Somerset. Bonding moment.

Make some memories, and safe travels.
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Is that where you got your board handle from? Did BK offer chicken sandwiches at the time?
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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

rutgersguy1
T2Kplus20 said:
UNH with the rare expectations miss on earnings (slightly). This may have been some sandbagging and a PR move in light of recent events.
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I think it was approaching that 550 resistance level as well which is more reason for a pullback.

I don’t think it’s out of the regulatory woods yet either. It was in a trading range for awhile until a somewhat recent breakout but now back in that range once it definitively broke down through 550.
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

bac2therac
RU848789 said:
Yes, they were quite skeptical at 4 am. They won't be if the 12Z global models come in hot, like the first one just did with the ICON showing much more snow than previous runs (a general 3-5"). We'll know in about 2 hours...
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again with the Icon, in fact when has Mt Holly even referenced the Icon, for that matter when has any met on tv or radio or zarrow even mentioned the Icon

they may shift the forecast because duh...because anything over 72 hours isnt reliable on the models but its not going to be because of what the Icon spit out on a clown map
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

bac2therac
RU848789 said:
No bias to simply discuss possibilities - what model have I hugged? None, just shared the outcomes and noted that people will remain skeptical of the other models if the Euro/GFS aren't on board, which you know is true - and reporting that the 6Z Euro and GFS are snowy instead of nearly nada is a big change.

There's also zero issue with mentioning snow ratios possibly being high IF temps are in the 20s, but I forgot to add the caveats I had in previous posts on ratios, so I just put those into the first post. Good catch, but I simply forgot - wasn't a bias issue.

I also find it odd that you say I'm biased for simply discussing possibilities, yet you do that all the time in your bracketology posts, knowing some of the possibilities you discuss will prove right and some will prove wrong.
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what biases do i have in my bracketology...bring receipts on that. I treat Rutgers and the Big 10 fairly Bracketology and weather are not the same. You are rooting for a moderate type event here and it shows. That CMC solution on the maps would be big trouble for our area with big slops. You are rushing to the ensembles to try and explain away the OP of gfs /euro and bringing up the Euro AI in a way to try to justify a bigger event. And yes the Euro AI has scored well of late, its just that I really dont recall you bringing it up much before and I also dont recall you using the Icon regularly like you do now. Its been all over the map with this event thus far and is trash like the JMA. Its only used in the winter by weenies on the weather boards really. This isnt a tropical event. When was the last winter storm that someone said boy the Icon sure bitchslapped the other models on this event.
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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

RU848789
retired711 said:
FWIW, here is the current forecast discussion from the Philly NWS:

A strong arctic cold front is expected to arrive sometime
Sunday, with a much colder airmass advecting in behind it. Still
watching the potential for a low to develop on the front once
it is south and east of our region, which could bring some
snowfall to the region. The 00Z suite of guidance backed off
again on this potential (similar to the trend from 24 hours
ago). Given that there has been poor run to run consistency on
this system, stayed close to a blend of guidance and previous
forecast. Even if it develops, the system will be rather weak
and progressive, so snowfall totals and resulting impacts appear
minor.
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Yes, they were quite skeptical at 4 am. They won't be if the 12Z global models come in hot, like the first one just did with the ICON showing much more snow than previous runs (a general 3-5"). We'll know in about 2 hours...
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