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Ace Bailey - Big Ten Home vs Road Performance Oddities

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

My Pike critiques from today

1. Biggest one is he took out Acuff in the first half when he’s the only guy scoring from outside.
2. Bury grant in the second half when Jeremiah couldn’t go? Huh?
3. Dortsch was so active in the first half and we bury him in the second.
The loss today wasn’t AS much on Pike as it usually is, but he did contribute. But hey, we won a game in the tourney four years ago.

OT: RU Alum Matt Pinfield Suffered A Stroke Leaving Him "Incapacitated"

This is horrible news for a very nice and very cool Rutgers alum. Former WRSU DJ, DJ at The Melody, DJ and program director at the groundbreaking FM 106.3 WHTG, host of 120 Minutes on MTV. This sucks. He posted this on January 6, the day he had the stroke:

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GAME 22 MICHIGAN: They battled

Not going to be a long one. Seems like I keep saying that. At this point in the season with NCAA hopes over and no Dylan Harper, learning to watch the games with little expectation helps a little. Rutgers gets a A for effort today. They battled harder to me than they did in any other game this year. That was more like an old school Pikiell rock fight played at the pace that he loves. Unfortunately in reality it was more like a Kevin Bannon game from the late 90s. Keeping it close but never quite getting over the hope to seriously threaten to win. RU several times had it to one or two possessions yet kept coming up short. Pikiell just did not have the horses while Dusty May had a stable of stallions. Make no mistake, Michigan did not play well at all today. Some of that Rutgers tough D and scrappiness but alot of it just them careless at times and not working hard enough on the boards. The Wolverines are well coached and in the end they responded when it counted much like MSU did last weekend. They went to Goldin and Wolf who hit big time shots. Meanwhile RU lacked any shotmakers in the bakery.

Ace was not the Ace from the other night. Obviously May made the right choice double teaming Ace right from the get go and even Ace couldnt find the space to his some miracle NBA type shots. On the other hand it wasnt all the double team. There were shots Ace had that either he passed up when open or flat out missed when he had room. These were shots he made on some other nights. Frustrating overall but I think Ace could have worked harder and Pike could have perhaps tried to find other ways to get him easier shots. That is experience right there. You can be the most talented player out there but if you have never been in that spot where a double team frustrates you all night, its tough to find that in your memory bank on how to overcome it and I think thats what happened with Ace tonight. Dreadful numbers from 3....0-7 and just 3-15 overall for 10 points with 3 turnovers. For Rutgers to win today they needed much more than Ace. Cannot win with the supporting cast who played admirably but they simply are not good enough to carry this team.

First of all the start was awful by Rutgers. In fact Michigan was sloppy themselves but RU could not take advantage. Early on it appeared that RU was going to get blown out but the switch to J Mike and Acuff in the lineup provided a boost. J Mike on both ends provided energy and unexpected shooting prowess. Acuff hit back to back 3s and J Mike scored on 3 straight RU possessions. Unfortunately RU struggled in the last 5 minutes of the first half offensively and trailed by 7. Not insurmountable but considering they were outboarding Michigan and taking more shots, it was going to take a big effort in the 2nd half to comeback. It was a struggle to put the ball in the hoop. At one point in the 2nd half, RU had taken 17 more shots than Michigan yet both made the same at 16....16-34 vs 16-51. Tyson and J Mike battled valiantly to keep RU around and after back to back 3s by PJ and Zak hit 3s and RU trailed by just 2. For a brief moment I believe that the RAC hocus pocus was working and something good was going to happen. Ace Bailey would deliver some big shots and the frenzied RAC would take us home to victory. Alas that did not happen. Instead it become a similar movie that Rutgers fans have seen a hundred times over the years...nice try Rutgers but not good enough. With RU cutting the defecit to 48-46, from then on it was the Wolf/Goldin show and RU was powerless to stop it. The two combined for 15 points in a decisive 6 minute stretch and grabbed a couple of key offensive rebounds which resulted iin 2nd chance points. RU's D which had done a yeomens job all day allowed Michigan scores on 6 of 7 Wolverine possessions. That was just enough. RU very sporadic with buckets in that period. Lathan hit one and JD was tough as nails drawing fouls and hitting 3 of 4 free throws. Ace and Acuff missed 3s in big spots and that was it. Credit Pike for stretching things out a bit and having his team fight the very end chipping away to cut it to 3 at the buzzer with 3s by Acuff and J Mike. Its a spot during crunch time you want to lean on Ace but that did not happen

Some may quibble that Grant/Dortsch needed to play more and why did Zak play 27 minutes and Derkack 23 minutes. I thought both of them played so tough even if their shots were not always there. That level of toughness from Zak defending Goldin you were not going to see from Grant. Derkack had a key stretch getting to the line. Perhaps Acuff could have played a few minutes more but could be a case of Pike giving him a break conditioning wise and also his D not quite as good as Derkack or J Mikes. Experience over youth if you want to grind it out. Grant was 1-6 fg, I do not think him jacking shots would have been the answer nor Dortsch even as he was rebouding well. Thats literally throwing them to the wolves against Wolf and Vlad. J Will didnt have much early and then wasnt even on the bench..was he sick from the other night? Lathan frustrating at times but did play better in the 2nd half. Just cannot be taking 3s anymore and do not know why Pike gives him the green light to continue to do it. Unfortunately this is a game where another body in EO would make a big difference. Of course Dylan would hve made a difference but then again the whole game would have been played at a different pace.

J Mike finally put back to back performances together and this his best ever. Really confident in his shot 8-14 fg for 20 points....4-7 from 3 and 4 steals. Heroic effort on both ends of the court and here is a guy who answered the call "next man up" with Dylan out. Can we get this consistently from him...that is the big question but no doubt if J Mike didnt elevate his game today, this would have been a big loss. Tyson 5-10 fg, keeping RU in the game with timely shooting. 4-8 from 3 and 14 points another back to back game from him. Good thing to see from both because the two of them are filling the Harper spot. As I said I loved toughness from Zak who only hit 1-4 but it was a big 3 as was PJ who was 1-3 although he put a dreadful 3 before halftime. Jordan was 0-3 fg but 5-6 at the line with 3 assists, 3 steals and 4 rebounds. Lathan 3-8fg was up and down as usual but i was encouraged but his 2nd half play. Grant/Dortsch 1-8 fg combined not the best matchup for them tonight. J Will didnt have it and left the game and bench.

Take heart in the effort tonight. Pike hasnt lost the team and they are not getting blown out like some other schools. Good to battling yet do not think this rock fight type game will be applicable to Illinois. To me its game that could get ugly if Ace is not on his game scoring 25 plus. No one knows when Dylan comes back. Can the last holdouts accept the fact this team is not making the NCAA as an at large and will need to run the table in the Big 10 tournament to get there. Lets just focus on making the Big 10 tourney and take the winnable games left...3 at the RAC vs Iowa, USC, Minnesota and at Washington...get all of them and they make it, take 3 of 4 and pretty good shot but could depend on tiebreakers.

Oh and the amount of Michigan fans were nauseating..quiet for much of the game until late but really our fans are soft. In fact too many bandwagon rutgers fans actually leaving the RAC down 6 with RU shooting foul shots with 54 seconds left...dumbass fans that is an eternity and given RU hit a shot at the buzzer to cut it to 3 you see why a game is never over til its over. If there were maybe 2 seconds left who knows if RU causes a turnover and has one last shot. Again dumbass fans, why watch the whole game and then scurry to the exits before its over, makes me wonder how many REAL FANS as opposed to casual fans the program has.

Post Mortem by Lion - RU vs Michigan

Sigh ... yet another "what might have been" ... which means RU found another way to NOT win (or lose).

Before the game I posted a preview in which I talked a bit about the defense, and laid out FIVE (5) keys on the offense. Those 5 keys:

1) Bailey shoot well (not otherworldly, but well).
2) Take care of the ball and cause turnovers to have at least a +5 turnover rate vs UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards.
4) Have at least 2 other players besides Bailey step up offensively (3 would be better).
5) RU home crowd be very good.

So ... 4 of 5, eh? But RU needed ALL FIVE to win this game. I'll comment on each of the 4 quantitative offensive keys - plus the defense.

I am going to start with the defense, actually, then go to the 4 offensive keys, then player comments.

Defense:

The defense was actually decent, FOR THE MOST PART ... even with occasional miscommunications and errors, and some poor close-outs ... still it was at least decent, and good enough to win ... almost. As a note, in my preview I felt Bailey primarily would cover a WF/Guard - which he did most of the game, mainly Burnett to begin with, as well as Pippen and Jones - but he did also cover the 6'10" 3-point shooter Walters (who hit 2-2 3's): Those 4 players were a combined 5-14, so it was not Bailey's DEFENSE that was the issue in this game ... and yes, I know, others covered those 4 players at times as well.

1) RU's 1st half defense was very good, holding UM to 44% FG ... and most importantly, holding UM to its lowest First Half scoring total of the season. In the 1st half it was RU's offense that was the problem - and not only Bailey (outside of Bailey, who was 2-9 FG, the rest of the team was just 33% FG and 3-12 from 3 point range. Wolf, Gayle and Burnett has 6 points COMBINED in the 1st half on 3-10 FG (3 double digit scorers).

2) RU forced 17 UM turnovers, with 11 of them coming in the 2nd half. That was what they needed to do for RU to have a chance in this game, and did so. Davis had 4 steals, Derkack and Sommerville 3 each, with Grant, Bailey and Hayes also getting steals - 13 in all.

3) Though it appeared from the box score that UM's offense in the 2nd half was very efficient (52.6% FG), it was solely because of ONE 4 minute span when RU's defense failed. It is a reminder that against a good team, you simply cannot have lapses for stretches. When and what happened? Here it is, starting with 6:45 left in the game, after Derkack hit 2-2 FT to bring RU to within 2 points again, at 46-48, here is what happened in 7 UM possessions over 4:30 on the clock ... FYI the RU line-up at this point was Sommerville, Martini, Bailey, Derkack and Davis:

a) UM possession 1: Wolf 3-pointer - terrific offensive set by UM, with Donaldson on one wing, UM had Wolf at the opposite f3-point line, Sommerville defending (Martini defending Goldin - who was camped in the far corner). UM having Gayle and Jones initially bunched: Jones just below the foul line extended - Derkack on him, Gayle midway between the foul line extended and the 3-point line (Bailey on him), Sommerville straddling the top of the foul line circle on Wolf - but with space (Derkack and Bailey were both very tight on their men). Wolf took a half step to look like he was setting a screen on Bailey for Gayle to pop out to the 3, but quickly stepped out at an angle to the 3-point line, Gayle moving closer to the center of the foul lane extended, at the top of the foul line circle, setting a screen on BOTH Bailey and Sommerville ... maybe there could have been better communication between Bailey and Sommerville, but I am not sure - because Bailey was covering Gayle to prevent the inside face cut down the lane, so when Wolf faded OUTSIDE, Bailey was naturally screened to prevent a switch - plus Sommerville got screened. And Derkack would have had to leave his man entirely to even have a chance to help at the 3-point line - because Jones was drifting towards the corner. I think, just a really good set up play by UM, and Wolf made the open 3. UM 46-51.​
b) UM Possession 2: After RU 1-2 FT, UM's Wolf missed a lay-up, but Goldin got the offensive rebound and lay-up. UM started with the IDENTIOCAL set up as the prior possession - but this time Martini was on Wolf, Sommerville on Goldin. UM changed the play, running a high screen with Jones and Wolf - Martini and Derkack switched - but with poor communication, so Derkack ended up chasing Wolf to the corner as Wolf received the ball ... Derkakc was out of position and Wolf drove and though Derkakc recovered decently forcing a wild lay-up try that Wolf missed, Sommerville kind of sat in the middle of the lane watching, losing Goldin as Goldin slid from the opposite low post to the other low post, and grab the offensive rebound and lay it in. Goldin's 1st 2H points, FYI. UM 47-53.​
c) UM Possession 3: After a nice Sommerville move and FG, UM created the same set up to trigger their offense. Sommerville was caught on a switch and was covering Jones, who slipped to the corner. Sommerville kind of drifted with him, Derkack rotating down the line to front Goldin, Martini on the opposite low post block to give him an angle to help underneath, but also time to get out to Wolf in the opposite corner if needed. The Sommerville INEXPLICABLY drifted back to the low post AWAY from the corner shooter Jones, causing Derkack to leave Goldin to try to run at Jones ot contest the 3 (way too far ot run to get to him) ... and at the same time Sommerville ALSO reversed himself to run out at Jones. Jones missed the 3, but Martini chose to slide to box out a now completely uncovered Goldin, allowing Wolf to crash the opposite side and over an attempt by Davis to rotate down and box out the 7'0" Wolf, just leaped and tipped the ball out to Gayle at the top of the circle (open because Bailey left him to crash the boards), followed by a quick pass and easy lay-up to Wolf open under the basket for a lay-up. UM 49-55.
d) UM Possession 4: After 1-2 FT by Bailey, UM runs the shot clock down a bit, RU (Sommerville and Martini) defend the 2-man game of Wolf and Goldin well, switching and forcing Goldin to take a difficult 12'-13' turnaround and fadeaway shot over Martini. UM still 50-55.​
e) UM Possession 5: After Davis missed a wide opne 3 at the top of the key, from a penetrating Derkack, Sommerville fouled Goldin on the rebound, allowing Goldin FT's ... 2-2 FT. Frankly, it was not much of a foul, if a foul at all. Goldin grabbed the rebound and as he turned to outlet the pass, stumbled and fell down, successfully passing the ball ... Upon looking at the replay several times, it looked more like a travel than any contact between either Sommerville or Derkack (also there) vs Goldin. It was a bang-bang call, so cannot really fault either the refs or Sommerville - could have been a UM turnover, though, and TRU ball rather than 2 FT's. Even so ... UM 50-57.​
f) UM Possession 6: After a Davis 3-pointer (from Bailey) against the zone - a nice play by both, UM possession. A complete RU breakdown in communication on screens allowing an easyt wide open lay-up by Goldin. Not sure who was at fault - after rewatching it several times I think it was probably Bailey's mistake, followed by Sommerville. Davis was covering Donaldson, and Gayle (Bailey's man) set a screen at the left logo (well above the 3-point line) but Bailey stayed at the foul line corner, not going out on Gayle as Gayle drifted up to the 3-point line. Donaldson kept dribbling sideways, Goldin set a 2nd screen for Donaldson and Sommerville switched. Bailey then drifted more, sliding towards the basket into the foul lane as if to cover Goldin cutting down the middle of the foul lane after his screen - but Davis did not go BACK to Gayle, now on the wing at the 3-point line. So when Donaldson passed to an open Gayle, Sommerville was at the 3-point line with Donaldson, and Bailey suddenly had to run out to challenge the wide open Gayle at the 3-point line/ Acuff was stuck defending the opposite corner unable to help and Goldin was WIDE OPEN on his cut for an easy lay-up from an easy pass from Gayle. Goldin was so open that even though Bailey actually TIPPED Gayle's pass, it still got to him in easy scoring position. UM 53-59.​
g) UM Possession 7: After 2-2 FT by Bailey (2:40 left), UM set up and forced multiple switches with motion, then Davis was caught on a back screen as Burnett cut around Goldin while Goldin had the ball, Goldin's back to the basket - Bailey having pushed Goldon out to the 3-point line (looked like good Bailey defense at first) ... Davis was caught in no man's land - and Bailey could not switch because Goldin had the ball and passed too quickly ... led to a baseline cut and drive with Davis trailing. Derkack had to leave Wolf at the high post to help Davis, and Wolf cut to the rim to receive the good pass and easy lay-up (Martini could not help as he was covering a UM player at the 3-point line). UM 55-61 ... 2:13 left.​
And that was the game. In that 4:30 time span, UM had 7 possessions, and was 5-7 FG and 2-2 FT, with 1 offensive rebound - scoring on 6 of the 7 possessions, pushing the lead from 46-48 to 55-61.​
And I know that you cannot really play this game with stats, but for perspective, OTHER THAN THAT 4:30 STRETCH, RU held UM to 43.5% FG shooting on the game. If RU had held UM ot 43% shooting even in that 4 minute stretch, UM would have been 3-7 .. and the score would have been 55-57, RY ball with 2 minutes left, and potentially TIED at 57-57 (or even RU ahead 57-56 if RU had stopped Wolf's initial 3) with 47 seconds left after several stops by RU followed by 2-2 FT by Derkack ... a totally different end game. Not clear RU would have own, but a very different end game, eh? And regardless, unless it went into overtime, RU would likely have held UM to its lowest point total of the season, rather than its 2nd lowest total, and maybe under 60 points. At which poitn we'd all be saying this was RU's best defensive effort of the season.​
Offense and Four Keys:

1) Bailey shooting well. This did not happen. Michigan should get a tone of credit here. They played terrific defense on Bailey. Even so, Bailey had a number of good opportunities he just missed. Was he hurried? rattled? Maybe. This resembled the 2nd half of the Wisconsin game, where Wisconsin put the smaller but quicker Leal on Bailey and it worked pretty well - denying him the ball and then aggressively doubling him as he tried ot back in or drive against the smaller player. Again in this game Bailey was a willing passer, and did get 2 assists - but he passed more than that and his teammates just missed often. Obviously, when a player misses as many shots at Bailey missed, there are a lot of "might have beens", such as TWO additional made shots and RU is tied or in the lead in the last 1-2 minutes of the game. But he did not, so RU was not. FAIL.

2) Take care of the ball, and cause turnovers, to have a +5 turnover rate. Mission accomplished - though RU WAS a little too careless in the 1st half with 8 turnovers - mostly in the 1st 12-14 minutes of the game, cleaning it up mostly after that : RU had just 1 turnover in the last 7 minutes of the 1st half, and only 3 or 4 in the entire 2nd half ... so 4 or 5 turnovers in the last 27 minutes of the game. Conversely, RU forced 17 UM turnovers, 10-11 in the 2nd half, and they forced them getting 13 steals. Sommerville actually did pretty well here, with 3 steals (other defensively shortcomings aside). Davis and 4 steals and Derkack was a very disruptive force, especially in the 2nd half. SUCCESS.

3) Hold their own on the Boards. RU outrebounded a very good rebounding Michigan team 37-36, including getting 15 offensive rebounds (to UM's just 5 offensive rebounds). That helped partly compensate for RU's poor shooting, as RU rebounded 15 of their 45 misses ... but only partly, since 45 misses is WAY too many to fully ocmpensate for. And, unfortunately, that 30% offensive rebound rate in this game was LOWER than the 33% offensive rebound rate RU averaged coming into the game. Still, RU did hold their own on the Boards. SUCCESS.

4) Have at least 2 players other than Bailey deliver offensive production (preferably 3). Mission accomplished ... except with Bailey's very poor shooting night RU needed 3 - but only got 2. Still, a career night by Davis (offensively) and a very good night by Acuff. But Grant was just 1-6 FG (0-3 3-point) on a night RU needed that extra couple of baskets ... and Martin and Hayes, though each hitting important 3's, were a combined 2-7 from the field (all 3's) ... and Derkack was 0-3 (though 506 FT). The combo of Hayes, Martini, Grant, Derkack and Sommerville were a combined 6-24 FG (2-12 3-point FG). Still .. PARTIAL SUCCESS.

Players:

1) Bailey ... sigh ... See my post about his strange oddity of home vs road games in the Big 10 (https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...oad-performance-oddities.288711/#post-7122404). He simply did not have it vs UM. Part of it was certainly excellent defense by UM (mentioned above). But part of it was he simply missed a number of FG tries he can and often makes - in particular open or catch and shoot 3's. RU won't win many games if Bailey is 3-15 FG (0-7 3-pointers), especially without Harper. It is a credit to the rest of the team they came clsoe in this game. He WAS a willing passer, got 3 assists and could have had more if his teammates hit some open shots after he passed it. He was okay defensively. He did make some errors, but MOSTLY, the players he covered did little offensive damage (also covered above). He was okay rebounding - not dominant, but okay.

2) Davis He gets second listing here. Great game. Yes, he missed a couple of 3's and yes he missed a critical 2-pointer near the end (tough play with the game clock running down, that he somehow got more open than not). But very, very hard for anyone to complain at 20 points (okay, the last 3 was meaningless, but still ...) 4 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 assists and 0 (ZERO) turnovers), in 31 minutes. And though Donaldson hit some key baskets, and had 6 assists, he only had 10 points overall, and 3 turnovers.

3) Acuff: He did not start, but the last 2 games RU is now seeing the Acuff the staff obviously hoped for. Maybe his foot is finally 100% healthy, eh? Anyway a good game. No obvious defensive errors, 14 points on 5-10 FG, 2-4 3-pointers. Much needed. He did miss a crucial 3 after Bailey missed an open 3 in one sequence. But it iis tough to complain too much.

4) Sommerville: he was ... okay. Positive: He had 3 steals, 5 rebounds, and battled hard all game against the 2 UM 7 footers. And hit a couple of very important buckets. But he was also just 3-8 FG, took 2 ill-advised very deep shots (yes, open - only 1 counted as a 3, apparently), got called for a foul in the end game that really hurt (though as I explained above I am not sure it was actually a foul).

5) Derkack: If he had hit 1 3 and 1 2, it would have been a GREAT game ... but he did not, so it was merely a solid game, with times when he was a big difference maker with his steals and energy ... 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 5-6 FT all good. 0-3 FG (0-2 from 3) and 2 bad turnovers were not so good. He was not the reason for the loss, for sure.

6) Grant: Did not play well, which is why he was not in the game in the last 10 minutes or so - though he was not that poor either. He was 0-3 from 3 - when RU really needed a couple of makes. He forced several other shots. He was okay on defense, but did not stand out the way he has in other games (though he was a factor holding Wolf to just 2 1st half points). His game was more "meh" than bad this game.

7) Martini: He played quite well for the most part. The one exception was RU really needed more than the 1 3 he did make - they really needed one more (all his 3's were wide open). He played with great grit and heart on defense, and was at least solid. yes, he was occasionally overmatched one on one with Wolf or Goldin. But he played them decently a fair amount of time also.

8) Williams: We probably have to give a pass as he was simply too ill, and did not play at all in the 2nd half.

9) Hayes - got real playing time, and was not hurtful. He did hit an important 3 - and forced a 3 (I think he had to as the shot clokc was winding down) and missed an open 3. He did have a turnover in limited time, but also an assist and a steal. Okay.

10) Dortch: He played with energy and was GREAT rebounding in the 1st half in particular - 5 rebounds in the 1st half, 3 offensive. But he struggled holding onto the ball - as freshmen bigs often do. He obviously need to get stronger - and will by next year.

OT: New Music (Released January 2020 or Later)

Any good new songs or albums released this year?

Biggest surprise and solid release on June 23, 2020 by the band Hum (famous for the 1995 song Stars), which had not released an album since 1998.

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Car Seat Headrest has also released a new album, which is not as strong as the last album:

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Badly Drawn Boy- Banana Skin Shoes
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Elvis Costello- No Flag - very solid song

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BPMD- American Made

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RU v Michigan Preview

Posted this deep in anotehr thread, thought worth posting separately.

Bad match-up for RU, especially short-handed (no Ogbole for interior, no Harper, maybe Williams still not 100%).

Without putting a prediction forward, here is what may be:

Defense:

The initial match-ups will have Sommerville on Goldin and I presume Grant on the other 7 footer, and the stretch PF Wolf. I presume whoever is RU's starting PG (Williams or Derkack) will be on Tre Donaldson, UM's 2nd leading scorer and playing really well offensively right now - BUT susceptible to the turnover (43 in 20 games). A healthy Williams would actually be a decent match-up for RU (Williams pressures well). I presume Bailey will be initially matched up vs Burnett - UM's designated 3-point sniper (65% of FG attempts from 3, 44% FG% from 3) - Bailey has been assigned a perimeter player in each of the last 3 games, presumably to use his length to bother the shooter - and with Grant and Sommerville starting, Bailey is the 3, the WF. That leaves the other starter to cover Gayle - though he has taken 50+ 3-pointers (31% of his attempts), is more an athletic slasher ... does Acuff start? Or Derkack ... Derkack is athletic enough to cover Gayle (if he maintains his defensive discipline) - and Derkack COULD be a good match as Gayle turns the ball over A LOT (44 times in 20 games, and Derkack CAN cause chaos. Acuff would likely be abused by Gayle - Gayle is WAY too athletic for Acuff.

Off the bench, Martini will have the biggest issue, as I am not even sure he is 6'6" (though listed at 6'8" ... I have no idea how he can defend Goldin or Wolf. Which means Dortch, even skinny, may have to really step up and defend Wolf, at least (using his height and length to defend against the stretch PF Wolf. If coming off the bench, Acuff needs to be solid, at least and Davis needs to be very strong defensively (he has been so in some games, not as much in other games).

The thing is ... Michigan is REALLY REALLY good offensively, so this is a real challenge. They shoot 50% FG, 37% 3-point and are a strong rebounding team. They take 44% of their FG's from 3-point range - BUT ... have a strong offensive post player in Goldin and at times Wolf. They have SEVEN (7) players who take 50% or more of their FG's from 3: Donaldson (well, just under 50% at 49% of his FG's from 3), Burnett (65% of FG tries from 3), Tschetter - a 6'9" reserve getting 15 mpg (55% of FG's from 3), Walters - a 6'10" reserve getting 13 mpg (82% of FG from 3), Cason - a 6'3" reserve - 11 mpg (55% of FG from 3), Ruben Jones - a 6'5" reserve getting 20 mpg (68% of FG from 3) and Pippen - 6'3" reserve getting just 7 mpg (70% of his 30 FG tries from 3).

On the bright side, while UM is relatively deep, they have 7 players averaging 20 mpg or more, and the remaining 4 reserves play between 7 and 15 mpg - so not consistent. More importantly, UM CAN be turnover prone - averaging almost 15 turnovers per game (the BTN earlier today pointed out UM had the most turnovers/game of any Big Ten team - and the gap between them and the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 was bigger than the gap between the 2nd worst team and the 18th worst team. So ... RU probably HAS ot force UM into turnovers to have a chance. ... or hope from a really poor 3-point FG% performance from UM. That CAN happen, though not often. UM shot 30% from 3 vs Wake Forest, and lost ... 27% vs Tarleton St (and still won going away - but Tarleton St) ... 29% vs Virginia Tech - but won by 12 ... 24% vs Wisconsin - but win by 3 ... 20% vs Iowa - and lost (but only by 2) ... 14% vs Oklahoma - and lost, but only by 1 ... 26% vs NW - and won in OT ... 21% vs Purdue and got killed ... they lost at Minny despite shooting 11-22, 50%, from 3 - not sure how they lost that game (UM had a better FG%, better 3-pt FG%, many more FT and out-rebounded Minny - the difference was 6 Minny turnovers to UM's 13 - not even a lot of UM TO's).

Offense:

Well ... pretty simple to "model", not so simple to execute:

1) Need Bailey to be very good (not necessarily other-worldly as he was in 2 of the last 3 games - but very good like in 5 of the last 6 games ... He has a 4-15 ish game, I think it would be very tough for RU to win or even keep it close ... presuming Harper is out.

2) Take care of the ball - really limit the turnovers to 10 or fewer - and more importantly, have at least a +5 turnover margin related to UM.

3) Hold their own on the boards (do not have to WIN the rebounding battle, but need to be at least adequate.

4) At least TWO other players step up offensively (3 would be better), hopefully 1 of those scoring 13-15 points, and another 1-2 players scoring 8-12 points.

5) ADDED: Have the RU home crowd be the 6th man.
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