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Now what....??? 8-4 are actual expectations??

It's been 10 days since we kicked off against Minnesota and a bunch of things have changed.

A) We removed Moses Walker from the linebacker rotation (for the most part) and a lot of the defensive breakdowns have been minimized.

B) We elevated KJ Duff and Ian Strong to true starters on the outside and and focusing on placing Miller in the slot, within the offensive gameplans.

C) The offense has actually gotten better by asking more of the WRs and AK at QB.....this is after injured players Monangai didn't play vs Minnesota, Kenny Fletcher was lost for the season and we limited snaps for now, with Benjamin Black, Chris Long and even Christian Dremel.

D) Big passing plays have taken the heat off the offensive line.....we lost Felter for the season....Needham is also out for the season.....the aggressive playcalling and WR play of Duff and Strong have reduced the need on Monangai to carry the offense, but now a big passing play OR a defensive back committing a holding penalty against Duff and Strong is almost expected once a half.

E) The general public has noticed.....RU opening as a 1.5 point underdog vs #24 Illinois AND in less than 24 hours, the line has flipped to RU as a 2 PT favorite.

The last 2 games have been the best 2 games in the Schiano 2.0 era.....not the best performances by the defense or offense....but for the 1st time in almost 5 years......we are OUT of excuses....

A) Every team has injured players out for the season....Some of the backups have not only performed but stepped up and improved the roster.

B) The coaching staff has stepped up....they have called more blitzing on defense and replaced players who were not performing up to standard or when mistakes are made, another player goes into the game and is expected to play well.

C) The loss of Monangai vs Minnesota forced the staff to look elsewhere for plays to be made. I would never advocate for it having to happen this way, but I don't feel like Benjamin or Raymond can't step in and make plays, if Kyle doesn't get 25 carries.

So, now what?? For me, anything can happen in a game on any given Saturday, but I expect to make plays now on offense vs Illinois and Michigan State. I actually feel like even a mistake or 2 on a drive, isn't the end of the world, we can make up for it with our impact WR play.

8-4 is not only in play, but unless I'm missing something, RU should be able to score 24, 27 or 30+ in both games. Doesn't mean we will win both, but I can't see any reason why RU shouldn't move the ball in the air.....(which opens up the ground attack).

I fully expect the skeptical RU fans to knock this down....but the excuses have gone away for me....we can't use injuries anymore, so it now just comes down to players and playmaking.

Fill the stadium Saturday folks, I know the 4 game streak was ugly, but now we can pass, score and look explosive on offense.....there's a reason to show up !!

OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM

The forecasts from both Colorado State University (CSU, where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been for a very busy season since early spring and now that the tropical season has officially started, the latest updates (6/5 from NHC and 6/11 from CSU) from the two major sources continue to predict an extremely active tropical season for the Atlantic Basin. Also, note that the 3rd link, below, has a summary of predictions from about 20 different sources, with all of them predicting a busy season.

CSU's prediction is for 23 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 17-25 (mean of 21) named storms, of which 8-13 (mean of 10.5) are expected to become hurricanes, including 4-7 (mean of 5.5) major hurricanes; see the graphics and links below. In comparison, last year we had a fairly active tropical season with regard to named storms with 20 named storms (vs. the 1981-2020 long-term average of 14.4), but the season was right on average for hurricanes, with 7 hurricanes (vs. an avg of 7) and 3 major hurricanes (vs. an avg of 3), compared to preseason forecasts for average activity,

However, note that even in a very busy year, what's most important, usually, is landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones (or ones with extraordinary rainfall), which is why last year's very active season wasn't particularly impactful, as only Idalia made US landfall as a major hurricane (and fortunately in the sparsely populated Big Bend area of Florida); similarly, in a below normal or normal year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian a couple of years ago, to make a season impactful.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mal-atlantic-basin-heating-up-8-21-23.261686/

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Both CSU and NHC use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing La Nina conditions (which usually means more tropical activity, due to lowered wind shear over the Atlantic Basin) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which also usually means more tropical activity and the potential for more powerful storms, as hurricanes use warmer waters as "fuel" for intensification) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Unfortunately, without @RU4Real, I'm guessing we won't have a prediction contest. Let's see how it all goes, but the predictions are a bit disconcerting, especially for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, the US (and Canada) East Coast, and the Caribbean.

Most Impressive win of the season

Look things were looking bleak after losing 4 in a row. No revisionist history could say otherwise. Both sides of the ball were looking bad. Early confidence from the first 4 games that Athan had in his throws had disappeared. To me the confidence was so shot after the Wisconsin shellshock that Rutgers was losing the UCLA and USC games before kickoff even began. It wasnt an effort more a mentality thing. The defense was being carved up from the get go. Every drive was seemingly a score for UCLA and USC and that obviously isnt a good thing for an offense that couldnt get out of its own due to mistakes and just flat out poor play calling. Injuries certainly a factor but you cannot use that to totally excuse a freefall.

I do not know what happened in that off week but RU healed a little and Greg was able to instill the keep chopping perserverance and last week we saw a much improved effort vs Minnesota. Rutgers finally made plays on the offensive end even without Kyle and the defense finally got its act together. The question was would it carry over. Beating Minnesota would be meaningless if it did not carry over vs the Terps...and oh it did. This was the best performance and most impressive performance of the season. A total complete game we have not seen from Rutgers in years from start to finish. There was no question after years of losing to Maryland and chasing them around, Rutgers was the more talented, better coached and executed on the field with more precision than Maryland. In fact to me this would rank up there as probably a top 5 win in the GS era. No Maryland isnt very good. Thats not the point. The point is controlling the game, the balance between offense and defense, the playing to win mentality with the play calling, combined with having to prove that the 4 game skid was a speed bump is a testament to how impressive the win was. The 8:45 drive was one of beauty. A mix of running and passing and poise. The confidence in knowing that we are going to score and we are going to do it slowly and you are going to suffer through it Maryland. It was almost duplicated by another 6 minute drive in the 2nd half that severely was going to impact the possessions Maryland would get.

So important after that score to go up 21-17 for RU defense to step up and thats what they did. The 3 and out they held Maryland was enormous. The annnouncers kept talking about Maryland holding serve and they could score quick but totally oblivious to how Rutgers just went on another long drive and that would limit and put pressure on Maryland to score everytime. RU up a break would end up scoring again and all but sealed the deal with the INT set up for a fg. Up 31-17, thats when I knew it was over and was not worried about Maryland being able to come back. The Terps could not execute and their QB was simply not good enough to convert the 4th down plays and even their last drive which they easily could have cut the lead to 7 to set up an onsides kick was a complete failure for them. That 2nd half is about as impressive of a half that we have seen from Greg and Kirk or from Rutgers ever in the Big 10 thus far.

I am not an Xs and Os guy so look forward to reading some commentary on what we specifically did with play calling that we were not doing vs Nebraska and UCLA and Wisconsin. Our WR finally stepping up and executing but was their more to it.

So I went from praising Greg after the first 4 wins, to calling it same old Rutgers and admittedly ready to tune out the rest of the season at 4-4, and now he has pulled me back in at 6-4. RU is going bowling. What a rollercoaster but its one alot of us go through as fans. We do not like to get our hopes up only for them to be dashed bitterly and I think I speak for many. 8-4 is within reach but understandly 6-6 is as well. Big game vs Illinois, not a sexy name opponent but given the bowl possibilities that await, this game is likely the biggest game that the program has had since the Flood Louisville game with a trip to the Sugar Bowl on the line. Staying in the running for a New Years Day type bowl vs staying in the running for the dreaded Detroit Bowl.

The Good...and Not So Good (Maryland)

Almost all good this week. Some specifics can be gleaned.

GOOD
  1. Strong and Duff-Wow. Feels like we have two mini Kenny Britts (with Strong moving towards full Britt) on the field at once. Amazing weapons and a few more developing years of this tandem could be unprecedented. Wonder if the decommit qb is rethinking pulling that trigger. If both could highpoiont a little bit it could be lights out for bds.
  2. The Dremel AND Miller at the same time effect. Have been stating since game one it didnt't need to be either Miller OR Dremel. Since USC, Miller's productictivity has gone through the roof and it's no coincidence that it occurred when Dremel was on the filed a whole lot more. There was one Miller catch yesterday where Dremel ran a great route nearby and drew interest, allowing Miller to have a cushion to be open for the catch. Miller is an excellent route runner and these diversions have changed the pass game. Kudos for using them both.
  3. Pre game prep AND Game day coaching. All well done. Kudos appropriately due. Playing two lbs primarily with more dbs instead of going to lb weak links was the right move.
  4. AK. Not sure why he doesn't get more credit. He is not just a servicable qb but has shown himself to be a weapon. His play from USC on has been nothing we've seen at qb since Teel.
  5. KM. What more can be said. Will repeat that it will be some years before we see this level of rb again. He''s now earned approriate Ray Rice comparsions.
  6. OL. With all the injuries and shuffling, just a great job pass blocking and solid on the run.
  7. DL. Made the plays that had to be made and have improved. Lewis had first impact game and good for him. Hamilton has been solid for weeks. Young guys coming on.
  8. Longerbeam. Made the plays that mattered and is a game changer. Without him the pass game of the opposition would be different.
  9. Probably missing others as so much was good including focus and intensity
NOT SO GOOD:

Really nitpicking to discuss the not so good on this day.

  1. The run up to the line by AK and rb as if it's a changed play...for a handoff to occur every time. From UCLA on it's been clear that the D is keying on the run and they have all been 2-3 yards or sometimes less. It's not deception if you never throw off of it.
  2. Using Dremel in motion to block the back side on runs. This has happened a lot in recent week. He just doesn't have the size to make that block and a few of these have been blown up for that reason. Why not Duff or a TE? It's head scratching.
  3. Execution has masked repetitive play calling. Many who watch RU can call the play in advance. It was a problem during the losing streak and the execution has addressed that in the last few weeks (and using Dremel AND Miller-kudos for that), but just a little more motion, some misdirection would make the O much more difficult to defend and not require the execution to be so exact. We have seen Duff, Miller and Strong make great plays. Would be nice to see them wide open because of confusion or misdirection rather than always having to win the one on one. (Will give KC the Strong Minnn td but can argue it was just a bad read by the LB taking a different route, but credit him on that one).
  4. Readiness at snap. Sure I wasnt the only one to notice the D looking to the sidelines as the ball was released to snap. Maryland inexplicably appeared to intentionally wait for RU to get into their stance. Recall Wisky and UCLA did not. Locksey has always had talent but his coaching and attention to detail have always been suspect and Maryland could have taken advantage but did not. Thus is something a good OC will see and needs to bea ddressed.
All in all a well played and well coached game.

OT: NCAA College Football Games Thread 11/12-11/16 Tues-Sat (Old Thread)

Tuesday, Nov. 12

Buffalo vs. Ball State, 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan, 7 p.m. | ESPN2
Toledo vs. Central Michigan, 7 p.m. | ESPNU

Wednesday, Nov. 13

Miami (OH) vs. Kent State, 7 p.m. | ESPNU
Northern Illinois vs. Akron, 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan, 7 p.m. | ESPN2

Thursday, Nov. 14

Tulsa vs. East Carolina, 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
Alabama A&M vs. Grambling, 8 p.m. | ESPNU

Friday, Nov. 15

Colorado State vs. Wyoming, 8 p.m. | CBSSN
UTSA vs. North Texas, 8 p.m. | ESPN2
North Carolina Central vs. Howard, 8 p.m. | ESPNU
Washington vs. UCLA, 9 p.m. | FOX
Arizona vs. Houston, 10:15 p.m. | FS1

Saturday, Nov. 16

No. 2 Ohio State vs. Northwestern, 12 p.m. | BTN
No. 5 Texas vs. Arkansas, 12 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 18 Pittsburgh vs. No. 23 Clemson, 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 20 Colorado vs. Utah, 12 p.m. | FOX
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech, 12 p.m. | CBSSN
Navy vs. Tulane, 12 p.m. | ESPN2
Auburn vs. UL Monroe, 12:45 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 11 Alabama vs. Mercer, 2:00 p.m. | ESPN+/SEC Network+
Illinois vs. Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. | FS1
California vs. Syracuse, 3 p.m. | The CW Network
No. 6 Penn State vs. Purdue, 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. Virginia, 3:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 13 SMU vs. Boston College, 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 15 LSU vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 22 Louisville vs. Stanford, 3:30 p.m. | ACCN
Air Force vs. Oregon State, 3:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Southern California vs. Nebraska, 4 p.m. | FOX
West Virginia vs. Baylor, 4 p.m. | ESPN 2
Old Dominion vs. James Madison, 4 p.m. | ESPNU
No. 24 Missouri vs. South Carolina, 4:15 p.m. | SEC Network
Maryland vs. Rutgers, 6 p.m. | FS1
No. 12 Boise State vs. San José State, 7 p.m. | CBSSN
No. 19 Kansas State vs. Arizona State, 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 1 Oregon vs. Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 7 Tennessee, 7:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 14 Texas A&M vs. New Mexico State, 7:45 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 17 Iowa State vs. Cincinnati, 8 p.m. | FOX
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest, 8 p.m. | ACCN
Memphis vs. UAB, 8 p.m. | ESPN 2
No. 21 Washington State vs. New Mexico, 9:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 9 BYU vs. Kansas, 10:15 p.m. | ESPN
UNLV vs. San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. | CBSSN

Athan

Major props to him. This was by far his best game of the season.
And it's not just the numbers: 20/30 for 238 yards and 2TDs.
The yardage doesn't blow you away, but damnit he stood in there and made some unbelievable throws under pressure. He made ALL the right reads and ball placement was phenomenal.
I've asked for more from this kid and he more than delivered today.

Happy to be wrong

I said Greg was stuck in old school football mode, but here we are seeing two straight weeks of aggressive offensive play.

I'm so happy to see us having fun on offense. We finally have slants and crossing routes to complement the out routes and curl backs. We no longer depend on running the ball on 2nd down after an incompletion. It's incredible to see!
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