OT: 2023 Tropical Weather: Predictions Upped (7/6) to Above Normal...Atlantic Basin Heating Up (8/21/23)

[RU848789]

After last year's underperforming tropical season, with fairly normal activity levels, including 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes (vs. the long-term 1991-2020 averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes), compared to preseason forecasts for much higher activity, the recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State (where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and NOAA are for fairly normal tropical activity levels in the Atlantic Basin this year. However, note that even in a normal year, like last year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian, to make a season impactful.

CSU's prediction is for 15 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 7 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 3 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 12-17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 14.5 named storms (15 from CSU), 7 hurricanes (7 from CSU) and 2.5 major hurricanes (3 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rida-and-2022-tropical-weather-thread.241908/

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing El Nino conditions (which usually means less tropical activity) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which usually means more tropical activity) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Now that @RU4Real is back, maybe he'll even have a prediction contest...

And we just had our second tropical storm of the season this past weekend with Arlene becoming a weak TS in the NE GOM with 40 mph winds for about 15 hours; this was after the NHC recently reassessed a strong January storm off the NE US coast and deemed it to have enough tropical character to be called a subtropical storm, which will remain unnamed, but still count towards the seasonal total.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

We’re heading to the Bahamas for a week on Wednesday (not the best time of the year but this is when the kids could get off work.). Is the jet stream causing a low pressure stall there going to persist? Thanks for your best call on this.

 

[e5fdny]

After last year's underperforming tropical season, with fairly normal activity levels, including 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes (vs. the long-term 1991-2020 averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes), compared to preseason forecasts for much higher activity, the recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State (where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and NOAA are for fairly normal tropical activity levels in the Atlantic Basin this year. However, note that even in a normal year, like last year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian, to make a season impactful.

CSU's prediction is for 15 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 7 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 3 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 12-17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 14.5 named storms (15 from CSU), 7 hurricanes (7 from CSU) and 2.5 major hurricanes (3 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rida-and-2022-tropical-weather-thread.241908/

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing El Nino conditions (which usually means less tropical activity) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which usually means more tropical activity) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Now that @RU4Real is back, maybe he'll even have a prediction contest...

And we just had our second tropical storm of the season this past weekend with Arlene becoming a weak TS in the NE GOM with 40 mph winds for about 15 hours; this was after the NHC recently reassessed a strong January storm off the NE US coast and deemed it to have enough tropical character to be called a subtropical storm, which will remain unnamed, but still count towards the seasonal total.

You would love the one on tMB as it goes back about FIVE years. 🙄

And incidentally…started by someone for this Board.

 

[RU848789]

You would love the one on tMB as it goes back about FIVE years. 🙄

And incidentally…started by someone for this Board.

I rarely go to TMB - looks like the CE board right now and didn't see any threads on tropical weather, although I'll admit I didn't look very hard. Are you saying it's one thread with 5 years of content? How on earth have you allowed that to happen? 😉 Who started the thread? I have enough places to post weather info, lol - 5 message boards and FB, plus two weather email lists.

 

[e5fdny]

I rarely go to TMB - looks like the CE board right now and didn't see any threads on tropical weather, although I'll admit I didn't look very hard. Are you saying it's one thread with 5 years of content? How on earth have you allowed that to happen? 😉 Who started the thread? I have enough places to post weather info, lol - 5 message boards and FB, plus two weather email lists.

It’s disgusting. LOL

The funny thing is, I don’t see this particular poster that much in your threads.

 

[RU848789]

It’s disgusting. LOL

The funny thing is, I don’t see this particular poster that much in your threads.

Now you made me look, lol. I saw tropical threads on TMB going back to 2020, started by sport2231, who posts occasionally here and as you said, rarely in weather threads, which seems odd given his tropical posts on TMB. I've been doing tropical weather posts here since at least the early 2000s, with the Sandy thread being the most active for obvious reasons, although the site post history ends at 2015. I do find it a bit odd that the free main board is filled with CE-board style politics and cursing/namecalling that aren't allowed on the free boards here.

 

[e5fdny]

Now you made me look, lol. I saw tropical threads on TMB going back to 2020, started by sport2231, who posts occasionally here and as you said, rarely in weather threads, which seems odd given his tropical posts on TMB. I've been doing tropical weather posts here since at least the early 2000s, with the Sandy thread being the most active for obvious reasons, although the site post history ends at 2015. I do find it a bit odd that the free main board is filled with CE-board style politics and cursing/namecalling that aren't allowed on the free boards here.

@RutgersRaRa knows how I feel about that place…some of it is hilarious, some obscene, some sad. All at the same time.

Like a real life episode of “Eastbound and Down.”

 

[DJ Spanky]

while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 12-17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes

They're really going out on a limb here, aren't they?

 

[RU848789]

They're really going out on a limb here, aren't they?

Yeah, I don't love NOAAs wide ranges, which is why I noted the range midpoints above.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yeah, I don't love NOAAs wide ranges, which is why I noted the range midpoints above.

That's like saying I think Rutgers Football will win 3-8 games this season. WOW, what a brave forecast!

 

[RU848789]

That's like saying I think Rutgers Football will win 3-8 games this season. WOW, what a brave forecast!

Not exactly. 3-8 is 50% of the 0-12 range of possible outcomes, while 12-17 is about 20% of the range of possible outcomes, given tropical seasons have ranged from 1 (1914) to 31 (2020) named systems.

 

[DJ Spanky]

3-8 is 50% of the 0-12 range of possible outcomes,

Well I said 3-8 because I think that's the possible outcomes for us this season, but if we're gonna just use 0-12 we're talking 46% not 50%. And why do you limit it to 0-12: shouldn't it be 0-15? Which would lower the percentage of possible outcomes to 37.5%. If we were talking 2024 and beyond, you have a 0-17 range of outcomes, which would leave 3-8 at 33%.

But I was trying to make a general analogy to Rutgers Football, not something explicitly equal.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Nice find - excellent discussion of the interplay between El Nino's warm equatorial Pacific waters and the warm waters in the Atlantic Basin, where having both at the same time is highly unusual - meaning uncertainty is likely greater than usual for tropical season forecasts.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I'm going with 17/7/3.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

@RutgersRaRa knows how I feel about that place…some of it is hilarious, some obscene, some sad. All at the same time.

Like a real life episode of “Eastbound and Down.”

@e5fdny I love that place for what you said it is, and also the trash talking between fanbases. You get respect if you can hold your own, admit when you're wrong, and move along. In your honor, and to your point, here are four minutes of a parallel of tMB:

 

[RU848789]

@e5fdny I love that place for what you said it is, and also the trash talking between fanbases. You get respect if you can hold your own, admit when you're wrong, and move along. In your honor, and to your point, here are four minutes of a parallel of tMB:

View embedded media

Watched some of EB&D with my son when he was a teenager and it was hilarious, but I only saw a couple of episodes each year and somehow completely missed that Will Ferrel produced the show and was in some of the episodes - might have to go back and watch a couple of those.

 

[e5fdny]

@e5fdny I love that place for what you said it is, and also the trash talking between fanbases. You get respect if you can hold your own, admit when you're wrong, and move along. In your honor, and to your point, here are four minutes of a parallel of tMB:

View embedded media

Watched some of EB&D with my son when he was a teenager and it was hilarious, but I only saw a couple of episodes each year and somehow completely missed that Will Ferrel produced the show and was in some of the episodes - might have to go back and watch a couple of those.

There were things on the show that were hilarious but at the same time your felt (just like tMB) should I really be laughing at this?

 

[RU848789]

Tropical Storm Bret was named at 5 pm today. The storm is about halfway across the Atlantic well SW of the Cape Verde Islands and is forecast to generally move west and to strengthen into a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it hits the Lesser Antilles Islands in 3-4 days and then possibly Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. Beyond that the storm is a threat to the Gulf and possibly Florida and the Atlantic, assuming it survives that far, but it's way too far out to predict where it will go beyond day 7-8. This is a very unusual storm to have out in the Atlantic this time of year, since the waters are usually cooler, but we have record warm temps in the Atlantic this season, fueling this storm.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ssion-three-tropical-storm-bret-east-atlantic

 

[e5fdny]

I will be monitoring you more than that storm…🤔

 

[RU848789]

Well, Bret has strengthened to 65 mph as it approaches the central Lesser Antilles Island chain (the north-south chain of small islands that defines the boundary between the Caribbean and the Atlantic), but is no longer to forecast to hurricane strength in the next day or so as it reaches those islands and is no longer a threat for the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba). Bret will then be encountering strong shear (thanks, El Nino) in the Caribbean, which should shred the storm into a non-entity by Saturday.

There is also a strong tropical wave (Invest 93L) about 1000 miles ESE of Bret, in the Atlantic, which the NHC says has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression and perhaps a named storm over the next several days. Most models are indicating this to likely be a fish storm that will turn north before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[e5fdny]

 

[RU848789]

Perfect case of not needing a new thread, lol...

 

[e5fdny]

Perfect case of not needing a new thread, lol...

I just like to use the .gif 🙂

 

[RU848789]

Well, Bret has strengthened to 65 mph as it approaches the central Lesser Antilles Island chain (the north-south chain of small islands that defines the boundary between the Caribbean and the Atlantic), but is no longer to forecast to hurricane strength in the next day or so as it reaches those islands and is no longer a threat for the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba). Bret will then be encountering strong shear (thanks, El Nino) in the Caribbean, which should shred the storm into a non-entity by Saturday.

There is also a strong tropical wave (Invest 93L) about 1000 miles ESE of Bret, in the Atlantic, which the NHC says has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression and perhaps a named storm over the next several days. Most models are indicating this to likely be a fish storm that will turn north before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Well, Bret hit the central Lesser Antilles yesterday as a strong TS, but is starting to weaken as expected and should dissipate, due to wind shear, by Sunday.

However, Invest 93L became TS Cindy last night, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and the storm is forecast to move NW, missing all of the islands of the NE Caribbean. Cindy will likely not make it to hurricane status and will likely dissipate in 4-5 days, also due to wind shear. Fairly active June, so far.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

 

[bac2therac]

meanwhile the models continue to be atrocious in the midrange over the past year....see the bust on the rain events here

 

[RU848789]

After last year's underperforming tropical season, with fairly normal activity levels, including 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes (vs. the long-term 1991-2020 averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes), compared to preseason forecasts for much higher activity, the recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State (where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and NOAA are for fairly normal tropical activity levels in the Atlantic Basin this year. However, note that even in a normal year, like last year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian, to make a season impactful.

CSU's prediction is for 15 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 7 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 3 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 12-17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 14.5 named storms (15 from CSU), 7 hurricanes (7 from CSU) and 2.5 major hurricanes (3 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rida-and-2022-tropical-weather-thread.241908/

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing El Nino conditions (which usually means less tropical activity) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which usually means more tropical activity) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Now that @RU4Real is back, maybe he'll even have a prediction contest...

And we just had our second tropical storm of the season this past weekend with Arlene becoming a weak TS in the NE GOM with 40 mph winds for about 15 hours; this was after the NHC recently reassessed a strong January storm off the NE US coast and deemed it to have enough tropical character to be called a subtropical storm, which will remain unnamed, but still count towards the seasonal total.

Well, CSU just came out with an updated forecast for the 2023 tropical season, increasing their forecast for named storms from 15 to 18, for hurricanes from 7 to 9 and for major hurricanes from 3 to 4. This is due to a combination of factors that they expect will overcome the El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific (which usually lead to less activity in a typical season), including the fast start to the tropical season, the near record sea surface temps throughout much of the Atlantic Basin, and the ongoing lower wind shear in the inter-tropical convergence zone (the area along where the tradewinds are, where many storms are born).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf

It's also worth noting that July 3rd to 5th were the 3 hottest days in recorded history, right on the heels of the warmest June in recorded history, both likely due to ongoing global warming combined with the El Nino conditions, which tend to make things warmer for much of the planet (we just came out of an unusually strong 3-year La Nina period, which tends to cool things a bit). Warmer planetary conditions lead to warmer ocean temps, which fuel more tropical systems (and can make them more intense), all else being equal. Probably worth a separate thread on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/...te=1&user_id=3f7a7d00850ad922736b3173646a296d

 

[e5fdny]

 

[Ronnie_B]

This summer is really pissing me off with all these thunderstorms (and I love them, but com'on already). I'm supposed to be going camping Sunday in Wharton but all forecasts are calling for a washout, is it really going to be that bad?

 

[ashokan]

meanwhile the models continue to be atrocious in the midrange over the past year....see the bust on the rain events here

Not strictly related but ever see the vid on polar vortex?
Best wind/atmosphere illustrations I ever saw

 

[newwavedave1]

Lots of weather enthusiasts on this site. Maybe we should have a separate board.

 

[RU848789]

This summer is really pissing me off with all these thunderstorms (and I love them, but com'on already). I'm supposed to be going camping Sunday in Wharton but all forecasts are calling for a washout, is it really going to be that bad?

It's very likely to be bad up there all day Sunday/Sunday night with 1-2" of rain currently in the forecast by the NWS, with a potent upper level low and a surface low combining for some heavy rains and possible strong t-storms. Less rain is likely towards the coast. This morning's discussion is below and this afternoon's models continue to show substantial rain for Sunday.

I would've posted this in the severe weather thread we had going, but that seems to have disappeared. Anyone know why?

Sunday will be wet and we will emphasize the potential for excessive
rains and severe weather for the afternoon and evening time frames.
Models agree on a potent short wave rotating around a developing
Canadian upper low and advancing towards the Middle Atlantic. A
surface low will move thru concentrating the rains across our CWA.
One to two inches of rain is possible Sunday. Pops attm will be
categorical for western/northern areas while low likely pops are
expected for Delmarva and the shore areas of NJ. The clouds and
rains will keep temperatures mostly below normal with upper 70s/low
80s for highs across the region.

 

[RU848789]

Not strictly related but ever see the vid on polar vortex?
Best wind/atmosphere illustrations I ever saw

View embedded media

Cool graphics and good explanations of the various jet streams and their relationships with other key global circulations and how these impact polar vortex outbreaks. However, I found it odd that the title of the video was "What the polar vortex will do to the Earth this decade" but that the video never really made a case for any particular predicted impact. Anyway, here's more on Milankovitch cycles, which he mentions early on and which are integral to understanding ice ages.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/...cles include:,is pointed, known as precession.

 

[RU848789]

It's very likely to be bad up there all day Sunday/Sunday night with 1-2" of rain currently in the forecast by the NWS, with a potent upper level low and a surface low combining for some heavy rains and possible strong t-storms. Less rain is likely towards the coast. This morning's discussion is below and this afternoon's models continue to show substantial rain for Sunday.

I would've posted this in the severe weather thread we had going, but that seems to have disappeared. Anyone know why?

Sunday will be wet and we will emphasize the potential for excessive
rains and severe weather for the afternoon and evening time frames.
Models agree on a potent short wave rotating around a developing
Canadian upper low and advancing towards the Middle Atlantic. A
surface low will move thru concentrating the rains across our CWA.
One to two inches of rain is possible Sunday. Pops attm will be
categorical for western/northern areas while low likely pops are
expected for Delmarva and the shore areas of NJ. The clouds and
rains will keep temperatures mostly below normal with upper 70s/low
80s for highs across the region.

@Ronnie_B - hoping you didn't try camping today/tonight up in NWNJ, where they've had 2-4" of rain already with another 1-2" on the way. Amazing gradient of rainfall with flash flood warnings (dark red) in place for 2-4" of rain (or more in spots) for everywhere along (in spots, i.e., in SEPA, but not NE of Trenton) and NW of 95. Rains finally hitting the 95 corridor and a bit SE of there now (where little has fallen so far), with maybe an inch or so coming.

Still not sure why the original thread on severe weather for the last week was deleted - anyone?

 

[Ronnie_B]

@Ronnie_B - hoping you didn't try camping today/tonight up in NWNJ, where they've had 2-4" of rain already with another 1-2" on the way. Amazing gradient of rainfall with flash flood warnings (dark red) in place for 2-4" of rain (or more in spots) for everywhere along (in spots, i.e., in SEPA, but not NE of Trenton) and NW of 95. Rains finally hitting the 95 corridor and a bit SE of there now (where little has fallen so far), with maybe an inch or so coming.

Still not sure why the original thread on severe weather for the last week was deleted - anyone?

No, I cancelled. You don't mess with thunderstorms and Widowmakers.

 

[RU848789]

Tropical Storm Don has been meandering around the Central Atlantic since being named on Friday (was a subtropical storm to start, but has transitioned to a fully tropical storm) and will continue to do so through at least Friday, with the max winds forecast to be ~50 mph over that time. The storm is no threat to land, although it could come close to Newfoundland. This is our 5th storm of the season, so far.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Also, there's TS Calvin in the Central Pacific, which is forecast to pass over the southern part of the big island of Hawaii late tonight/early Weds as a 40-45 mph storm, so impacts will likely be fairly minor, except perhaps for heavy rains.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_cp1.shtml?start#contents

 

[RU848789]

After a very quiet period (not unusual for July/early August), it looks like the tropical season in the Atlantic is showing signs of waking up, as there are a number of waves in the Atlantic Basin a couple of which have potential for becoming named storms. However, there is still a fair amount of dry/dusty air from the Sahara north of the ICTZ (intertropical convergence zone, where many storms get their start), which could continue to inhibit storm formation. We are getting close to late August and then September, when we see the peak of the season, typically.

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-08-14-atlantic-watching-tropical-development

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

 

[WhiteBus]

Meanwhile the West Coast is going to hit hard late this weekend. Hilary now a category 4 but will be a tropical storm as it hits Southern California dumping massive amounts of rain.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Meanwhile the West Coast is going to hit hard late this weekend. Hilary now a category 4 but will be a tropical storm as it hits Southern California dumping massive amounts of rain.

Again I shake my head: with decades of history and proper planning, all of the overflow from storms like this could be properly stored in reservoirs to alleviate drought conditions. But they continue to fritter away time and get nothing done.

 

[vic_torre42]

Again I shake my head: with decades of history and proper planning, all of the overflow from storms like this could be properly stored in reservoirs to alleviate drought conditions. But they continue to fritter away time and get nothing done.

Yes, my brother lives in California and has been saying the same things for years.