OT: 2023 Tropical Weather: Predictions Upped (7/6) to Above Normal...Atlantic Basin Heating Up (8/21/23)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Duh, it's obvious! Demolish Beverly Hills and make it a reservoir for LA.
Things continue to heat up in the Atlantic Basin. We now have TS Emily (~50 mph winds and not forecast to strengthen much) in the eastern Atlantic, which is fortunately forecast to be a fish storm only threatening shipping, and we have TD#6 in the central Atlantic, which is likely to dissipate before being named.
More importantly, we have a strong tropical wave in the Caribbean, which is likely to become a TS in the next 12-24 hours and could threaten Hispaniola in the next couple of days and then perhaps the Bahamas, but looks like it could stay out to sea (but way too far in advance to know for sure), and we have another area of disturbed weather near Key West, which some models show becoming a TS as it meanders towards the Texas/Mexico coasts over the next several days - more likely to be a big rainmaker (and that area needs some rain) than a hurricane. And there's another strong wave which just came off the coast of Africa, which has potential to become a TS in a few days.
Hilary is being discussed in the Hilary thread, but it sure looks like a lot of rain in SoCal and the desert SW, where they almost never see rain in August, so flooding is the major concern.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
More importantly, we have a strong tropical wave in the Caribbean, which is likely to become a TS in the next 12-24 hours and could threaten Hispaniola in the next couple of days and then perhaps the Bahamas, but looks like it could stay out to sea (but way too far in advance to know for sure), and we have another area of disturbed weather near Key West, which some models show becoming a TS as it meanders towards the Texas/Mexico coasts over the next several days - more likely to be a big rainmaker (and that area needs some rain) than a hurricane. And there's another strong wave which just came off the coast of Africa, which has potential to become a TS in a few days.
Hilary is being discussed in the Hilary thread, but it sure looks like a lot of rain in SoCal and the desert SW, where they almost never see rain in August, so flooding is the major concern.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Last edited:
That TD just became TS Franklin, which is likely to hit Haiti/Dominican Republic (Hispaniola) in a couple of days as a strong TS, before eventually being picked up by the huge trough over the NE and North Atlantic and pushed to the NE, heading harmlessly out to sea, although the storm is forecast to become a Cat 1 hurricane in the Atlantic.
We're just about to have TS Harold, as the tropical wave in the GOM is now a tropical depression and is very likely to become a minor TS with 45-50 mph winds before landfall tomorrow morning in south Texas bringing heavy rains (2-4") from Corpus Christi to Brownsvill and west of there. These are much needed rains and there's only a modest flooding threat, so this is truly a "good" TS - just wish it would bring rain to extreme drought areas north of there, as El Paso, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Midland, etc. are not going to get any rain from this.
The other noteworthy storm is Franklin, which is stationary south of Hispaniola and forecast to slowly move north over the island on Wednesday as a strong tropical storm with ~60-70 mph winds, but the major threat is a slow moving system with torrential rains falling on a mountainous area bringing 5-10" or more of rain and causing major to catastrophic flooding. Even Puerto Rico, well to the east of the storm, will likely get 1-4" of rain. Beyond that the storm will likely strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane south of Bermuda and beyond the 5-day forecast, some of the ensemble members of the major models are showing the track coming uncomfortably close to the US east coast (after coming close to Bermuda), although the mean of the ensemble runs has the track a few hundred miles off the coast. Worth watching closely.
And that little TD east of the Caribbean became TS Gert very early this morning and is back to being a tropical depression and about to dissipate, while there's another strong wave just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, which has a good chance of becoming a named storm. So, if you're keeping score, we're up to 8 named storms (I'm assuming we have Harold shortly) and one unnamed TS, so 9 storms for the season, so far, and we haven't even gotten to September, historically the busiest month of the season. With sea surface temps so abnormally high in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, any storms that form will bear watching as that kind of fuel could make for some powerful tropical systems. Possibly.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The other noteworthy storm is Franklin, which is stationary south of Hispaniola and forecast to slowly move north over the island on Wednesday as a strong tropical storm with ~60-70 mph winds, but the major threat is a slow moving system with torrential rains falling on a mountainous area bringing 5-10" or more of rain and causing major to catastrophic flooding. Even Puerto Rico, well to the east of the storm, will likely get 1-4" of rain. Beyond that the storm will likely strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane south of Bermuda and beyond the 5-day forecast, some of the ensemble members of the major models are showing the track coming uncomfortably close to the US east coast (after coming close to Bermuda), although the mean of the ensemble runs has the track a few hundred miles off the coast. Worth watching closely.
And that little TD east of the Caribbean became TS Gert very early this morning and is back to being a tropical depression and about to dissipate, while there's another strong wave just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, which has a good chance of becoming a named storm. So, if you're keeping score, we're up to 8 named storms (I'm assuming we have Harold shortly) and one unnamed TS, so 9 storms for the season, so far, and we haven't even gotten to September, historically the busiest month of the season. With sea surface temps so abnormally high in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, any storms that form will bear watching as that kind of fuel could make for some powerful tropical systems. Possibly.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
82/61F is what climatology says for the avg high/low for 9/3 - best guess this far out...
As expected, we now have TS Harold as of 5 am this morning with 45 mph winds and the storm will make landfall in south Texas this afternoon, probably with 50 mph winds. As mentioned yesterday, this will largely be a beneficial storm, as most of south Texas (and adjacent Mexico) are suffering drought conditions, and the storm will bring 1-4" of rain to that area, but unfortunately, the rain will stay well south of a El Paso to San Antonio to Houston arc.
Given how warm the GOM waters are and how low the shear is in that area, we're very lucky Harold didn't form 2-3 days ago, as that's a recipe for rapid intensification into a major hurricane. The warm sea surface temps throughout the Atlantic Basin are why this season is capable of having some major hurricanes forming, but it's not a given. Harold is the 9th storm of the season, which is now about 3 weeks ahead of a "normal" pace.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-21-tropical-storm-harold-forecast-texas-gulf
Given how warm the GOM waters are and how low the shear is in that area, we're very lucky Harold didn't form 2-3 days ago, as that's a recipe for rapid intensification into a major hurricane. The warm sea surface temps throughout the Atlantic Basin are why this season is capable of having some major hurricanes forming, but it's not a given. Harold is the 9th storm of the season, which is now about 3 weeks ahead of a "normal" pace.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-21-tropical-storm-harold-forecast-texas-gulf
So, Harold delivered the expected and needed rains to south Texas and northern Mexico, while Franklin is making landfall now on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic with 50 mph winds, but the biggest risk for the entire island of Hispaniola is catastrophic flooding from 5-10" (locally more) of rain, especially in the mountainous areas. Even western Puerto Rico is getting 2-4" of rain, which likely isn't enough for much flooding, fortunately.
The big question with Franklin is where does the storm go next? Looks like it will emerge off of Hispaniola tonight and then move mostly northward (likely bringing TS force winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos), but then bend back NW towards Bermuda, while strengthening into a Cat 1 or maybe Cat 2 hurricane over the next 5 days - the track cone includes Bermuda, although it's just on the edge of the cone. Beyond that most models show the storm churning between the US east coast and Bermuda and probably turning NE towards the Canadian Maritimes (with heavy surf the only expected impact to the US) - too early to predict landfalls 10 days out, but that area should be on alert.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
The big question with Franklin is where does the storm go next? Looks like it will emerge off of Hispaniola tonight and then move mostly northward (likely bringing TS force winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos), but then bend back NW towards Bermuda, while strengthening into a Cat 1 or maybe Cat 2 hurricane over the next 5 days - the track cone includes Bermuda, although it's just on the edge of the cone. Beyond that most models show the storm churning between the US east coast and Bermuda and probably turning NE towards the Canadian Maritimes (with heavy surf the only expected impact to the US) - too early to predict landfalls 10 days out, but that area should be on alert.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Looks like Franklin is going to follow the path the models have been showing the past couple of days, i.e., curving NNW, west of Bermuda, followed by being picked up by the big Canadian trough by mid-next week and heading NE towards Newfoundland, staying several hundred miles off the US east coast, meaning the only impacts will be heavy surf. The storm currently has 60 mph winds, but should strengthen to near Cat 3 status (110 mph winds; Cat 3 starts at 111 mph) as it passes west of Bermuda.
The next area of concern for the US is the area of disturbed weather with broad low pressure and disorganized convection in the NW Caribbean, which the NHC thinks has a good chance of eventually organizing into a tropical storm over the next 5-7 days (or even hurricane) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the west coast of Florida. Since we don't even have a storm yet, predictions on formation, track and intensity have very high uncertainty, but that's what some of the models are saying. Interests in the eastern GOM need to watch this one, which could become Idalia, which is kind of a bad omen, as "I" named storms are the most retired names in history (the worst storms).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The next area of concern for the US is the area of disturbed weather with broad low pressure and disorganized convection in the NW Caribbean, which the NHC thinks has a good chance of eventually organizing into a tropical storm over the next 5-7 days (or even hurricane) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the west coast of Florida. Since we don't even have a storm yet, predictions on formation, track and intensity have very high uncertainty, but that's what some of the models are saying. Interests in the eastern GOM need to watch this one, which could become Idalia, which is kind of a bad omen, as "I" named storms are the most retired names in history (the worst storms).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Looks like Franklin is going to follow the path the models have been showing the past couple of days, i.e., curving NNW, west of Bermuda, followed by being picked up by the big Canadian trough by mid-next week and heading NE towards Newfoundland, staying several hundred miles off the US east coast, meaning the only impacts will be heavy surf. The storm currently has 60 mph winds, but should strengthen to near Cat 3 status (110 mph winds; Cat 3 starts at 111 mph) as it passes west of Bermuda.
The next area of concern for the US is the area of disturbed weather with broad low pressure and disorganized convection in the NW Caribbean, which the NHC thinks has a good chance of eventually organizing into a tropical storm over the next 5-7 days (or even hurricane) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the west coast of Florida. Since we don't even have a storm yet, predictions on formation, track and intensity have very high uncertainty, but that's what some of the models are saying. Interests in the eastern GOM need to watch this one, which could become Idalia, which is kind of a bad omen, as "I" named storms are the most retired names in history (the worst storms).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I just finished reading “Issac’s Storm” by Erik Larson, for the 2nd time. I read most of it about 20 years ago and read it entirely now as a retiree. This is a fantastic story about meteorologist Issac Cline and the infamous 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed upwards of 8000 and destroyed Galveston, Texas which at the turn of the 20th century was poised to be the next great port city in the US. A great testament to the arrogance and self assurance of people at that time and place. I highly recommend it.
Well it’s early, the next 6 weeks will be the high point. Every year is different and you don’t know. However, it only takes 1 big land falling storm to change everything. The danger to me is underestimating rather than ridiculing the forecasts.
He's a troll, as discounting an almost unprecedented SoCal tropical storm is just dumb. The season is moderately ahead of normal for the season, so far, and the forecasts are only for activity, not impact, as it's impossible to predict impacts with any accuracy. Last season, for example, underperformed vs. seasonal forecasts, but had that one huge, catastrophic landfalling hurricane in Ian, so it ended 3rd worst ever in damage costs.
Looks like Franklin is going to follow the path the models have been showing the past couple of days, i.e., curving NNW, west of Bermuda, followed by being picked up by the big Canadian trough by mid-next week and heading NE towards Newfoundland, staying several hundred miles off the US east coast, meaning the only impacts will be heavy surf. The storm currently has 60 mph winds, but should strengthen to near Cat 3 status (110 mph winds; Cat 3 starts at 111 mph) as it passes west of Bermuda.
The next area of concern for the US is the area of disturbed weather with broad low pressure and disorganized convection in the NW Caribbean, which the NHC thinks has a good chance of eventually organizing into a tropical storm over the next 5-7 days (or even hurricane) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the west coast of Florida. Since we don't even have a storm yet, predictions on formation, track and intensity have very high uncertainty, but that's what some of the models are saying. Interests in the eastern GOM need to watch this one, which could become Idalia, which is kind of a bad omen, as "I" named storms are the most retired names in history (the worst storms).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
So, no major forecast changes for now Hurricane Franklin (75 mph winds), which is still expected to "split the uprights" between the US east coast and Bermuda, coming closer to Bermuda, which will very likely at least feel some tropical storm conditions and some storm surge late Monday into Tuesday, being on the NE/stronger side of the storm. The intensity forecast was increased a bit with the storm likely becoming a major hurricane with ~120 mph winds by Tuesday.
Fortunately, the storm should stay several hundred miles off the coast of the US, although there will likely be heavy surf and rip currents for much of next week. Even Newfoundland might escape without major impacts as the storm looks like it will head SE of there while transitioning to an extratropical storm.
Other than potential Idalia (a separate thread was created for that storm, which will likely form and impact the eastern US Gulf Coast in several days), the rest of the Atlantic Basin has quieted down a bit, but will likely heat up again soon, as we approach the peak of the season in September.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Franklin is a beast of a storm with 150 mph winds, but will fortunately miss Bermuda by over 100 miles and miss the Canadian Maritimes. But it's pretty to look at unless you're on a nearby ship...
In case people missed it, after Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia (and TS Harold) kind of stole the show, we've had Gert, Jose, and now Katia and as per the graphic below, more tropical systems might be on the way. If anyone is interested in a seasonal summary to date, Wikipedia does a nice job with that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Gert was a TS that formed on 8/21, but was short-lived, becoming just a remnant storm 2 days later; however, its remnants then regenerated into a TS again on 9/1 and has meandered around the central Atlantic for days (never getting above 55 mph) and should dissipate, finally, in the next day or so.
Jose became a TS on 8/31, well SE of Bermuda and topped out at about 60 mph winds before dissipating into nothingness 2 days later in the central Atlantic. And we now have TS Katia, which became a TS on 9/2 in the eastern Atlantic and topped out at about 60 mph as it headed north and is about to dissipate in the next day or so.
We're also about to head into the peak of the tropical season (9/5-9/15) and it looks like we have a couple of strong tropical waves, including Invest 95L, which is a Cape Verde system coming off the coast of Africa a few days ago, which the NHC puts at a 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next several days (would likely be named Lee). The models are almost all showing this storm becoming a TS and then hurricane (possibly a major hurricane within 5 days) with some potential to skirt the Lesser Antilles in 5-7 days and then possibly taking aim at the US east coast in 10+ days, although more models show the storm staying well off the coast - but this one needs to be watched very closely, given the huge track uncertainties beyond 6-7 days. The AmericanWx thread, below, is a good one if interested in tracking this system.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-invest-95l-70-2-day90-5-day-development-odds/page/3/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Gert was a TS that formed on 8/21, but was short-lived, becoming just a remnant storm 2 days later; however, its remnants then regenerated into a TS again on 9/1 and has meandered around the central Atlantic for days (never getting above 55 mph) and should dissipate, finally, in the next day or so.
Jose became a TS on 8/31, well SE of Bermuda and topped out at about 60 mph winds before dissipating into nothingness 2 days later in the central Atlantic. And we now have TS Katia, which became a TS on 9/2 in the eastern Atlantic and topped out at about 60 mph as it headed north and is about to dissipate in the next day or so.
We're also about to head into the peak of the tropical season (9/5-9/15) and it looks like we have a couple of strong tropical waves, including Invest 95L, which is a Cape Verde system coming off the coast of Africa a few days ago, which the NHC puts at a 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next several days (would likely be named Lee). The models are almost all showing this storm becoming a TS and then hurricane (possibly a major hurricane within 5 days) with some potential to skirt the Lesser Antilles in 5-7 days and then possibly taking aim at the US east coast in 10+ days, although more models show the storm staying well off the coast - but this one needs to be watched very closely, given the huge track uncertainties beyond 6-7 days. The AmericanWx thread, below, is a good one if interested in tracking this system.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-invest-95l-70-2-day90-5-day-development-odds/page/3/
If you're going to troll, at least try to do it well, instead of mailing it in with lame barbs. The season is well ahead of the busy season forecast, to date, and is about to get busier.
Much better...even if still wrong, lol...Season =
As of now. :)
As expected, Invest 95L has already become a tropical depression as of 11 am and will very likely soon become Tropical Storm Lee - and it won't be long before future Lee becomes a hurricane and likely a major hurricane within 3-4 days. One doesn't often see a NHC forecast going from TD to major hurricane in 3 days. This is a testament to the abnormally warm ocean temps and the low shear, moist environment in the storm's path. This one will likely need its own thread shortly.In case people missed it, after Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia (and TS Harold) kind of stole the show, we've had Gert, Jose, and now Katia and as per the graphic below, more tropical systems might be on the way. If anyone is interested in a seasonal summary to date, Wikipedia does a nice job with that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Gert was a TS that formed on 8/21, but was short-lived, becoming just a remnant storm 2 days later; however, its remnants then regenerated into a TS again on 9/1 and has meandered around the central Atlantic for days (never getting above 55 mph) and should dissipate, finally, in the next day or so.
Jose became a TS on 8/31, well SE of Bermuda and topped out at about 60 mph winds before dissipating into nothingness 2 days later in the central Atlantic. And we now have TS Katia, which became a TS on 9/2 in the eastern Atlantic and topped out at about 60 mph as it headed north and is about to dissipate in the next day or so.
We're also about to head into the peak of the tropical season (9/5-9/15) and it looks like we have a couple of strong tropical waves, including Invest 95L, which is a Cape Verde system coming off the coast of Africa a few days ago, which the NHC puts at a 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next several days (would likely be named Lee). The models are almost all showing this storm becoming a TS and then hurricane (possibly a major hurricane within 5 days) with some potential to skirt the Lesser Antilles in 5-7 days and then possibly taking aim at the US east coast in 10+ days, although more models show the storm staying well off the coast - but this one needs to be watched very closely, given the huge track uncertainties beyond 6-7 days. The AmericanWx thread, below, is a good one if interested in tracking this system.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-invest-95l-70-2-day90-5-day-development-odds/page/3/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Best guess right now is that future Lee will head just north of the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles (PR/Hispaniola/Cuba) by Days 5-7 and then likely turn a bit towards the north, probably well east of the Bahamas and perhaps west of Bermuda and east of the US coast (like Franklin), but after that we're into Days 8-9 and beyond, where model divergence is too great for much confidence in the track.
Because of this high uncertainty, there is some chance (10-20%?) that the storm could strike the Canadian Maritimes and possibly even SE New England (which means eastern LI would be in play, too) and then Atlantic Canada. Obviously, if New England is possible, the rest of the east coast, including our area, has a small chance of also being possible, given how far out the storm is.
Keep in mind that Irma in 2017, when it was at a similar longitude as future Lee is was expected to stay off the US east coast by most models/ensembles and most will remember that the storm actually hit northern Cuba, then rode up the western side of Florida - different setup than this storm, but the point is that 8+ day forecasts can be pretty far off.
Really good post on AmericanWx discussing some of the possibilities...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ry-forthcoming/?do=findComment&comment=6994107
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
We now have TS Margot way out in the eastern Atlantic, just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Margot is expected to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane in the next few days, but is not expected to threaten anything but shipping and fishes. This is the 14th tropical storm+ this season, which is the about the number we'd expect in a normally active full season, so odds are pretty high that this season will be above normal, as forecast.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
In case folks are curious, Hurricane Nigel, which formed on Friday and peaked at 100 mph winds yesterday, is a fish storm out in the central Atlantic, heading NE towards Iceland, but will become a much weaker extratropical storm well before that.
We also have the non-tropical low off the east coast of Florida, which could develop at least subtropical characteristics over the next several days, as it meanders slowly northward, bringing some rain and some wind from FL to our area over the next several days, especially for the Carolinas (rain won't get here until Saturday, but could bring off/on rains through Sunday).
And finally, there's a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa that the NHC has as 70% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days, as it skirts south of the Cabo Verde Islands and starts heading west across the Atlantic. Way too early to predict anything, although this could be one of the last chances for a tropical system to form near the Cabo Verde islands, as such storms become a lot less likely in October, when development becomes more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf, although the El Nino effect might limit development there.
We also have the non-tropical low off the east coast of Florida, which could develop at least subtropical characteristics over the next several days, as it meanders slowly northward, bringing some rain and some wind from FL to our area over the next several days, especially for the Carolinas (rain won't get here until Saturday, but could bring off/on rains through Sunday).
And finally, there's a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa that the NHC has as 70% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days, as it skirts south of the Cabo Verde Islands and starts heading west across the Atlantic. Way too early to predict anything, although this could be one of the last chances for a tropical system to form near the Cabo Verde islands, as such storms become a lot less likely in October, when development becomes more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf, although the El Nino effect might limit development there.
Any idea on how this might impact the yellow jacket population?In case folks are curious, Hurricane Nigel, which formed on Friday and peaked at 100 mph winds yesterday, is a fish storm out in the central Atlantic, heading NE towards Iceland, but will become a much weaker extratropical storm well before that.
We also have the non-tropical low off the east coast of Florida, which could develop at least subtropical characteristics over the next several days, as it meanders slowly northward, bringing some rain and some wind from FL to our area over the next several days, especially for the Carolinas (rain won't get here until Saturday, but could bring off/on rains through Sunday).
And finally, there's a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa that the NHC has as 70% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days, as it skirts south of the Cabo Verde Islands and starts heading west across the Atlantic. Way too early to predict anything, although this could be one of the last chances for a tropical system to form near the Cabo Verde islands, as such storms become a lot less likely in October, when development becomes more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf, although the El Nino effect might limit development there.
More good calls by the models and the NHC, as the non-tropical low off the coast of Florida did eventually become Ophelia on Friday, which everyone became familiar with, and that Cabo Verde system became Phillipe on Saturday, which has been meandering around the east/central Atlantic for days and is currently not expected to become a hurricane and is forecast to stay east of Bermuda before turning N, then NE and heading towards the North Atlantic.In case folks are curious, Hurricane Nigel, which formed on Friday and peaked at 100 mph winds yesterday, is a fish storm out in the central Atlantic, heading NE towards Iceland, but will become a much weaker extratropical storm well before that.
We also have the non-tropical low off the east coast of Florida, which could develop at least subtropical characteristics over the next several days, as it meanders slowly northward, bringing some rain and some wind from FL to our area over the next several days, especially for the Carolinas (rain won't get here until Saturday, but could bring off/on rains through Sunday).
And finally, there's a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa that the NHC has as 70% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days, as it skirts south of the Cabo Verde Islands and starts heading west across the Atlantic. Way too early to predict anything, although this could be one of the last chances for a tropical system to form near the Cabo Verde islands, as such storms become a lot less likely in October, when development becomes more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf, although the El Nino effect might limit development there.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
And we have another wave about 400 miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, which looks like it will likely become a named system (Rina, which would be our 18th tropical storm/hurricane of the season, making this an above average season, as predicted by CSU in their 7/6/23 update) in the next few days and eventually a hurricane, likely to follow Phillipe's footsteps as a fish storm. We're almost into October, so climatologically, we still would expect a few more named storms, which could get us over 20 for the season. Fortunately, so far, apart from Idalia, Lee and Ophelia, the US has been mostly spared from significant impacts this season, with Idalia the only storm to really bring major to catastrophic impacts, so far.
Thank God. I don't know how anyone can live without all of your knowledge and expertise.
Wow, never thought you thought of me as a "weather god." Thanks.
All kidding aside, you have no idea how stoked my wife is for "Rina" since she takes a lot of arty photos, some of which involve her tiny plastic ballerinas, which she and her crew refer to as the Rinas.
Wow, two huge compliments in 10 minutes from you and BigRedRU - my most special day, which I'll cherish always.
Rina Lipa, 22 yr old sister of Dua Lipa. I'll allow it. (I'm sure WeatherKing Bac would've known this lol.)
Last edited:
Wouldn't have pegged Nimbersan for Lipa fans. They aren't Asian.
We now have Phillipe and Rina, both fairly weak tropical storms, in the western Atlantic, not far from the Lesser Antilles. They're close enough to be exhibiting the famed tropical tango known as the Fujiwhara Effect, when two tropical systems are near each other and can kind of rotate around each other (or their common "center"). Neither storm is expected to become a hurricane and both are likely to peter out in the central Atlantic.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...lippe-rina-2023-fujiwhara-effect/70990667007/
Last edited:
So, Rina dissipated, but Phillipe is still around, just north of the Puerto Rico as a fairly weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but it is forecast to strengthen a bit to maybe a 60 mph storm, as it moves quickly north, reaching Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days (possibly hitting the same location that Lee hit) as the storm transitions to an extratropical storm. Since this storm isn unlikely to become a hurricane, it will probably not get the level of attention that Lee got, which is fair. No current threats on the horizon after Phillipe, but we still have about 30% of the seasonal activity left in Oct/Nov.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
