OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM

[RUkrazy89]

I think I remember that one. They were predicting a big surge for that one too. And it played out the exact opposite.

That was a detail that stuck in my mind and now when i see a forecast with winds blowing due west across Tampa yet still hearing predictions of 15’ of surge? I don’t know about that.

Looks like a shit ton of rains going to hit Tampa though. Which is something you’ll see on that quadrant of the storm.

They dialed the surge back in Tampa to 8-12 but that would still break the record from a few weeks back. We have heard the Dunes in Long Boat Key have been decimated so I am curious how that will factor in as well.

 

[RU-05]

They dialed the surge back in Tampa to 8-12 but that would still break the record from a few weeks back. We have heard the Dunes in Long Boat Key have been decimated so I am curious how that will factor in as well.

I saw one actual model which predicted surge last night. And Tampa was in the zero level. Given winds that made sense.

Betts on TWC just hinted at that possibility.

South of TB including Fort Myers looked to be in trouble. From both surge and wind

Not sure about eye wall size but TB could be hit by the easterly winds of the northern edge of that.

 

[RU848789]

Summary: Milton is still a Cat 5 160 mph storm (907 mbar), but looks like it's starting to be affected by shear on the NW side due to the approaching trough/front to its NW, which will hopefully weaken the storm to the 130 mph forecast at landfall somewhere between Tampa Bay and Siesta Key, with the forecast track center having landfall in the Bradenton area. Damage from surge, winds and inland flooding will be major to catastrophic for much of Central Florida, especially along the Gulf Coast, of course, but those impacts will be much less, but still substantial even on the east coast (with much less surge and much lower winds) and the inland flooding risk is catastrophic for a wide swath along and north of the storm’s track; plus there’s the usual risk of scattered small tornadoes along/south of the track; downed trees/power lines and power outages will be widespread, especially for the western half of Central Florida.

Track: Florida needs to catch a break and have this storm weaken significantly, as predicted, to the 130 mph (Cat 3/4 border; Cat 4 is 130 mph and above) now forecast at landfall, just about in Bradenton around 12-2 am on Thursday morning, as the track forecast center nudged back north a bit vs. 11 pm last night (was Sarasota); see the zoomed in track forecast below. Note that there are still about 1/3 of the models showing landfall into Tampa Bay (with the rest from about Bradenton down to Siesta Key), which is why the forecast cone still goes from Tarpon Springs to North Port Charlotte, including Tampa. After landfall, the track center forecast takes Milton over to the Melbourne area as a Cat 1 storm (80 mph there), so obviously, the storm will be weakening from 130 mph to 80 mph as it traverses the peninsula.

Storm Surge: The storm surge forecast finally has been reduced to the Tampa Bay area as of 8 am, from 10-15' to 8-12", which would still shatter the modern record of 7 feet set in Tampa Bay during Helene (was an unofficial 10' for the 1921 hurricane), acknowledging the greater likelihood of landfall just south of Tampa Bay. The surge from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande is still forecast to be a catastrophic 10-15' and a potentially catastrophic surge of 8-12' down to Bonita Beach and even 5-8' down to Chokoloskee, which includes Naples and Marco Island.

Winds/Tornadoes: The damage from the winds, especially at the coast and even inland 30-50 miles (while it's still a Cat 2) will be major to catastrophic and will even be major towards the east coast as the storm weakens. And, as usual, there will be scattered small tornadoes along and south of the track for much of central/south Florida. The winds, combined with some tornadoes will lead to widespread downed trees/power lines and power outages, likely for more than 1 million people

Rainfall/Flooding: In addition, the rainfall of 8-12" and locally up to 16" for a large swath of central Florida, especially along and north of the storm's track (due to enhanced convection due to interaction with the approaching front from the NW), as per the graphic below, will produce major to catastrophic inland flooding. Note the 4th graphic below from the WPC showing the large swath of high flash flooding risk in purple (this level is rarely forecast) - the vast majority of flooding deaths have occurred in regions forecast to have "high" flash flooding risk.. The usual links are below. Ugh.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...on-forecast-landfall-florida-storm-surge-wind
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61170-category-five-hurricane-milton—160-mph907-mb/page/52/

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Briefest of updates based on the 11 am NHC advisory. Milton has weakened to 145 mph and further weakening to about 125 mph at landfall is expected. Track center shifted a few miles south, now aimed at Sarasota, but Tampa Bay is still inside the cone (and there are still models showing the storm's center going into Tampa Bay). No appreciable change in the storm surge or rainfall forecasts. Here's the language from the NHC on the uncertainty of the track and surge, still...

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

 

[RUGuitarMan]

The storm is now a category 3 hurricane, the pressure is up to 950 mbs. Winds are at 125 mph. The weakening is better for the coast, however looking at the radar, it looks like the forward speed has increased and it seems to be moving due NE, don’t see that projected move to the east. Untrained eye here but it looks to me right now that the center may move right over Tampa Bay.

 

[RUkrazy89]

The storm is now a category 3 hurricane, the pressure is up to 950 mbs. Winds are at 125 mph. The weakening is better for the coast, however looking at the radar, it looks like the forward speed has increased and it seems to be moving due NE, don’t see that projected move to the east. Untrained eye here but it looks to me right now that the center may move right over Tampa Bay.

I thought they expected a hard hook E soon?

 

[RU-05]

The storm is now a category 3 hurricane, the pressure is up to 950 mbs. Winds are at 125 mph. The weakening is better for the coast, however looking at the radar, it looks like the forward speed has increased and it seems to be moving due NE, don’t see that projected move to the east. Untrained eye here but it looks to me right now that the center may move right over Tampa Bay.

I thought they expected a hard hook E soon?

Accuweather just showed a track that had the storm heading NE before a hard hook east after it makes landfall at Tampa just at Guitar suggests.

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Been out all afternoon, but saw that there were 11 active tornadoes when I left around 1 pm; 53 is insane and they're just all over Florida. Going to be a mess just from tornadoes and hopefully people are well sheltered, but even a decent house can be destroyed by an EF2 or EF3 tornado (Iike the one in Port St. Lucie, near my dad in Vero; most hurricane-induced tornadoes are more minor EF1's). Damn.

 

[RU848789]

Briefest of updates based on the 11 am NHC advisory. Milton has weakened to 145 mph and further weakening to about 125 mph at landfall is expected. Track center shifted a few miles south, now aimed at Sarasota, but Tampa Bay is still inside the cone (and there are still models showing the storm's center going into Tampa Bay). No appreciable change in the storm surge or rainfall forecasts. Here's the language from the NHC on the uncertainty of the track and surge, still...

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

Another brief update as I've been out all afternoon and we have people over for dinner...Anyway, the 5 pm update shows the weakening expected or even more, as Milton is down to a 120 mph Cat 3 and is expected to be down to 90 mph in 12 hrs once it's about 50-60 miles inland. Landfall is expected to be very close to the entrance to Tampa Bay, but will likely be between Bradenton and Sarasota in about 4 hours, i.e., by 10-11 pm, probably as a weak Cat 3 (115 mph?); it also could wobble harder east (could go 10-20 miles south of Sarasota). Surge forecasts were decreased for Tampa Bay to 6-9', comparable to Helene's, but are still 9-13' south of Tampa down to Port Charoltte, roughly and 5-8' from there through Naples/Marco Island, as per the graphic. Rainfall graphic is also below and is similar to past forecasts. And plenty more tornadoes.

 

[RU-05]

Another brief update as I've been out all afternoon and we have people over for dinner...Anyway, the 5 pm update shows the weakening expected or even more, as Milton is down to a 120 mph Cat 3 and is expected to be down to 90 mph in 12 hrs once it's about 50-60 miles inland. Landfall is expected to be very close to the entrance to Tampa Bay, but will likely be between Bradenton and Sarasota in about 4 hours, i.e., by 10-11 pm, probably as a weak Cat 3 (115 mph?); it also could wobble harder east (could go 10-20 miles south of Sarasota). Surge forecasts were decreased for Tampa Bay to 6-9', comparable to Helene's, but are still 9-13' south of Tampa down to Port Charoltte, roughly and 5-8' from there through Naples/Marco Island, as per the graphic. Rainfall graphic is also below and is similar to past forecasts. And plenty more tornadoes.

Current storm surge in clear water and st petersburg is zero. Winds are blowing west. Just don’t see how Tampa gets a storm surge.

 

[rurichdog]

Current storm surge in clear water and st petersburg is zero. Winds are blowing west. Just don’t see how Tampa gets a storm surge.

If the winds are blowing out of the east towards the west, that is an EAST wind not a west wind.

 

[RUBigFrank]

North of landfall is the weak part of the storm. Comparing to Super storm sandy an east landing storm meant less damage to the south of landfall. Milton being a storm landing on the west side of land bears less damage to the north,

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Updated to 98 tornado warnings issued today in Florida through 6 pm. Nuts.

 

[RU848789]

Latest NHC...northern eyewall coming ashore near Tampa/St. Pete and that's where the worst winds and rain are. Most of the time the right side of the storm is strongest, but for Milton, due to the enhanced instability and convection from the strong trough to the NW of the storm, the N and NW side is strongest - very unusual.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move
onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg
where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in
place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread
the region.

A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph
(114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway
Fishing Pier.

The next update will be the intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT
(0000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

Extreme Wind Warning until 9:30 pm (and will likely be extended as per Dr. Knabb on TWC) for most of Tampa Metro...they're also getting hellacious rainfall rates, so flash flooding is going to be serious there and, in general, north of the track of the storm, which I've noted several times. St. Pete just had an 89 mph gust (and remember, winds are never as high on land as they are over the ocean, where the hurricane winds are being measured, due to frictional effects for land being much greater than for water.

Extreme Wind Warning
FLC057-081-103-100130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.EW.W.0001.241009T2236Z-241010T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
636 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
Manatee County in west central Florida...
Pinellas County in west central Florida...
Hillsborough County in west central Florida...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 635 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Milton,
were moving onshore along a line extending from 6 miles southwest
of South Bradenton to 25 miles southwest of Anna Maria to 52 miles
southwest of Saint Armands Key, moving northeast at 30 mph. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

 

[Postman_1]

 

[RU-05]

If the winds are blowing out of the east towards the west, that is an EAST wind not a west wind.

I said they were blowing west. Not a westerly wind. Nor out of the west.

Its a semantics issue but i think i stated my point clearly.

 

[RU848789]

We just had landfall on Siesta Key about 5 miles S of Sarasota and 20 miles S of the mouth of the Tampa Bay. Sustained winds of 78 mph reported and gusts up to 100 mph, so far. Storm surge is rising fast from just south of Siesta Key to Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, etc. to the south, as expected. And rainfall of 10+ inches has already been reported through much of Tampa Metro where flooding is major. Over 600K power outages, so far and we had our first fatalities near Fort Pierce from that EF3 tornado.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
830 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA....
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has
made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west
coast of Florida.

A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156
km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing
Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport.

The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

Current storm surge in clear water and st petersburg is zero. Winds are blowing west. Just don’t see how Tampa gets a storm surge.

Major storm surge in Tampa Bay was always dependent on the track being into or north of Tampa Bay so predominant winds would be out of the west, on-shore. The problem, all along, as I've been discussing, is that it simply wasn't known for sure where landfall would be until maybe 3 hours ago, when it became clear it was going to be south of Tampa Bay, leading to minor storm surge at landfall, so the NHC couldn't drop the storm surge forecast for Tampa until they were sure a Tampa landfall was out of the question. Track errors are still 20-30 miles at 12 hours before landfall, so Tampa wasn't out of the question until the last 3-6 hours. However in several hours winds will come back out of the west after Milton is east of Tampa and that will likely lead to 4-6' of surge (exacerbated by high tide), which will be below the 7' seen for Helene.

 

[RU848789]

North of landfall is the weak part of the storm. Comparing to Super storm sandy an east landing storm meant less damage to the south of landfall. Milton being a storm landing on the west side of land bears less damage to the north,

That would normally be the case, but is not for Milton; see some of my earlier posts/graphics on how the approaching trough/jet from the NW both sheared Milton, weakening it some, but has also juiced up the north side of the storm, which is why the winds and rain have been the worst on the north side (Tampa/St. Pete and that will continue as the storm moves inland), which is not what one would normally see. The exception to that is the surge is still much worse to the south of the storm's track and the tornadoes have been much worse south of the track. This is a very unusual setup for Milton.

 

[RU-05]

Major storm surge in Tampa Bay was always dependent on the track being into or north of Tampa Bay so predominant winds would be out of the east, on-shore. The problem, all along, as I've been discussing, is that it simply wasn't known for sure where landfall would be until maybe 3 hours ago, when it became clear it was going to be south of Tampa Bay, leading to minor storm surge at landfall, so the NHC couldn't drop the storm surge forecast for Tampa until they were sure a Tampa landfall was out of the question. Track errors are still 20-30 miles at 12 hours before landfall, so Tampa wasn't out of the question until the last 3-6 hours. However in several hours winds will come back out of the west after Milton is east of Tampa and that will likely lead to 4-6' of surge (exacerbated by high tide), which will be below the 7' seen for Helene.

doesn’t explain the forecast for surges further north which would be outside the cone and assuredly easterly winds.

Been doubting these Tampa surge forecasts as the storm made landfall. Also doubting a 4-6’ surge on the backside of the storm.

Also winds out of the east would we offshore winds on the west coast of Florida. Not on shore.

 

[RU848789]

Footage of the EF3 tornado near Ft. Pierce as it was crossing 95 - I'm sure that scared the crap out of many motorists. This was the tornado that reportedly killed a few people at Spanish Lakes Country Club in Ft. Pierce, about 2 miles south of where my dad and brother are, in Vero Beach.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Does Anderson Cooper have a death wish?

 

[RU-05]

TWC reporting up to 5” per hour in Tampa.

 

[RU848789]

doesn’t explain the forecast for surges further north which would be outside the cone and assuredly easterly winds.

Been doubting these Tampa surge forecasts as the storm made landfall. Also doubting a 4-6’ surge on the backside of the storm.

Also winds out of the east would we offshore winds on the west coast of Florida. Not on shore.

The surges of 1-3/2-4' north of the Tampa area were always due to backside winds being out of the NW/W after Milton was well inland. Most knew Tampa's surges would be much less if the storm went south of Tampa (I've been talking about it for days), but they couldn't drop the surge forecast while it wasn't clear if Milton would make landfall in Tampa Bay (it ended up only 20 miles south of the bay); however, the backside surge possibility in Tampa is real, but not 6-9'.

Yes, typo in my post - corrected, thanks.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

TWC reporting up to 5” per hour in Tampa.

Weather Channel guys. it’s ok to announce from the studio. Web cams would be fine.

 

[RU#1fan]

Footage of the EF3 tornado near Ft. Pierce as it was crossing 95 - I'm sure that scared the crap out of many motorists. This was the tornado that reportedly killed a few people at Spanish Lakes Country Club in Ft. Pierce, about 2 miles south of where my dad and brother are, in Vero Beach.

View embedded media

My Dad is few miles north in Sebastian, FL

 

[RU848789]

1.2MM out of power in FL and rising fast.

 

[RU848789]

TWC reporting up to 5” per hour in Tampa.

The amount of rain (10-14" reported and probably more has fallen in some places with more to come) is just nuts. NWS in Tampa just issued a Flash Flood Emergency for most of the Tampa/St. Pete area, which is rarely used - it's what was issued in our area when Ida's remnants unleashed that deadly deluge on CNJ/NNJ/NYC a few years ago.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
926 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ST. PETERSBURG, TAMPA, RIVERVIEW,
AND PALMETTO...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Hillsborough County in west central Florida...
Northern Manatee County in west central Florida...
Southeastern Pinellas County in west central Florida...

* Until 230 AM EDT.

* At 926 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 10 and 14 inches of
rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for St. Petersburg, Tampa,
Riverview, and Palmetto. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Bradenton, Pinellas Park, Temple
Terrace, Seminole, Palmetto, Downtown Saint Petersburg, Saint
Petersburg, Fort Desoto Park, Brandon, St. Petersburg, St. Pete
Beach, Anna Maria, Gandy, Macdill Air Force Base, West And East
Lealman, Feather Sound and Tampa International Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

 

[RU-05]

Weather Channel guys. it’s ok to announce from the studio. Web cams would be fine.

Boring. Props to the weather geeks for getting out in it.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

 

[RU848789]

Another Flash Flood Emergency issued by the NWS for potentially catastrophic flooding for the I-4 corridor NE of Tampa into the center of the state from 8-12", so far, and more on the way.

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1011 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LAKELAND, WINTER HAVEN, WESLEY CHAPEL...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Polk County in central Florida...
Southeastern Sumter County in central Florida...
Southwestern Hernando County in west central Florida...
Northern Hillsborough County in west central Florida...
Pasco County in west central Florida...
Pinellas County in west central Florida...

* Until 400 AM EDT.

* At 1011 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 8 and 12 inches of rain
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lakeland, Winter Haven, Wesley
Chapel. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Tampa, Spring Hill, Lakeland, Plant City, Winter Haven, Haines
City, Bartow, New Port Richey, Lake Wales, Auburndale,
Zephyrhills, Dade City, Brandon, Lutz, Fish Hawk, Hudson, Holiday,
St. Leo, Zephyrhills South and Zephyrhills North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

 

[ashokan]

Gator warnings - and expert says they can hold breath for 6 hours

"As millions try to evacuate or hunker down ahead of the storm making landfall, a wildlife expert has warned people in at-risk areas to watch out for deadly creatures such as alligators, which could be carried miles by rushing floodwaters.

Christopher Gillette, who runs an animal sanctuary in Putnam County, northern Florida, issued the warning on his Instagram account.

"There will be lots of disturbed animals on the move, they're trying to survive the storm too," he wrote.

Gillette warned that alligators pose a particular threat because they are able to hold their breath for up to six hours at a time..."

Terrifying alligator warning as hurricane to spark surge in sightings

DEVASTATING flooding caused by Hurricane Milton could bring another danger to affected people – alligators. A wildlife expert warned about the deadly creatures being carried miles by rushing …

www.the-sun.com

 

[RU848789]

Does Anderson Cooper have a death wish?

Just now he was standing near a river in Bradenton that is connected to the Tampa Bay and with the winds having shifted to the NW, the water was starting to surge towards him and was hammering him in waves and went from ankle depth to past his knees and he had his back to the water and kept looking back nervously. After a couple of minutes of this he said they were going to move to higher ground - thought we might get to see him swept away...

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Just now he was standing near a river in Bradenton that is connected to the Tampa Bay and with the winds having shifted to the NW, the water was starting to surge towards him and was hammering him in waves and went from ankle depth to past his knees and he had his back to the water and kept looking back nervously. After a couple of minutes of this he said they were going to move to higher ground - thought we might get to see him swept away...

I’ve been thinking about him being a gator attack victim.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

As expected, major damage to Tropicana Field

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

At last check, this Florida man presumably still alive.

 

[RU848789]

3.1 million customers without power now. Gonna take awhile to get that fixed.

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

 

[RU848789]

Milton about to exit the FL east coast ~10 miles north of Cape Canaveral (pretty close to the forecast from yesterday) as an 85 mph Cat 1 hurricane still. We'll begin to really see the extent of the damage at the coast and inland across the peninsula with sunrise soon.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...STRONG WINDS SPREAD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CENTER
OF MILTON NEARS CAPE CANAVERAL...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a gust to 92 mph (148
km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland.
A sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South
Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust
of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at buoy 41069 near Ponce
de Leon Inlet. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 84
mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International
Airport.

This will be the final hourly position update for Milton since the
center of the hurricane is moving offshore of the east coast of
Florida. The next full forecast advisory for Milton will be at 500
AM EDT (0900 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES