OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
- Thread starter RU848789
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Yeah, the NHC forecast has the track center pointed in that direction, but at this point, as per the models and the NHC, everywhere from TX to FL is in play, especially given the quite high uncertainty at this point, as per the NHC discussion this morning...
Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is
rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6
kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly,
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical
cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well
known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual
uncertainty in the track forecast.
The FL peninsula is looking safe, but everywhere from the FL Panhandle to east Texas is definitely in play, with somewhere in Louisiana looking most likely.
Some are citing Hurricane Ida (the one in 2009) as a good analog for Rafael. Ida was a hurricane in the northern Caribbean/southern GOM, but was weakened considerably by westerly shear from a strong trough, similar to what's expected for Rafael, and made landfall as a TS near Mobile AL on 11/10/2009. Would be nice if this one turned out like Ida, which wasn't terribly damaging.
https://www.weather.gov/mob/Ida2009
Maybe not down there, but up here Ida wreaked some serious havoc. I know you meant otherwise, but please let this one be nothing like Ida.
You're thinking of Ida in 2021, whose remnants produced incredible flooding in NJ/NY. I was talking about 2009 Ida, as I mentioned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ida
Here is a link to some of the information I see at work (hope link works).
go.everstream.ai
5 Minute Forecast
As expected Rafael became a TS at 5 pm yesterday and has slowly intensified to a 60 mph TS since then. The storm will brush Jamaica as a strong TS late tonight, then hit the Cayman Islands as a near hurricane tomorrow afternoon and then will strike western Cuba Weds morning as a likely Cat 1 hurricane (Cat 2 is possible as conditions are favorable for further strengthening for the next 2-3 days).We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one, both with regard to track and intensity, although the northern Gulf Coast (TX to FL) seems to be the area of greatest risk of landfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
After that Rafael will enter the GOM and head mostly NW, but will eventually encounter strong westerly shear from an approaching major trough (and dry air entrainment) and is forecast to weaken considerably before landfall, which will likely (NHC forecast doesn't go out that far) be as a weakening tropical storm somewhere between east TX and the western tip of the FL Panhandle, with Louisiana looking most likely, probably by Monday. It's quite possible the shear will shred Rafael completely before landfall, which would be the best case outcome. Regardless, the likely biggest impact from Rafael will be heavy, but likely not torrential, flooding rains across much of the Gulf coast and inland. We may get some moisture from Rafael's remnants feeding a separate low pressure system, which could give us our first measurable rains in 40+ days for most late on Sunday into Monday (nothing huge, but needed rain).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
I know it's way too early but a storm bringing rain across a large section after landfall, maybe a chance to put a dent in our drought at the cost of a disaster across the Louisiana gulf coast.
I have no idea why people deny that global warming is changing the worlds weather for the worse!
I have no idea why people deny that global warming is changing the worlds weather for the worse!
As expected Rafael became a TS at 5 pm yesterday and has slowly intensified to a 60 mph TS since then. The storm will brush Jamaica as a strong TS late tonight, then hit the Cayman Islands as a near hurricane tomorrow afternoon and then will strike western Cuba Weds morning as a likely Cat 1 hurricane (Cat 2 is possible as conditions are favorable for further strengthening for the next 2-3 days).
After that Rafael will enter the GOM and head mostly NW, but will eventually encounter strong westerly shear from an approaching major trough (and dry air entrainment) and is forecast to weaken considerably before landfall, which will likely (NHC forecast doesn't go out that far) be as a weakening tropical storm somewhere between east TX and the western tip of the FL Panhandle, with Louisiana looking most likely, probably by Monday. It's quite possible the shear will shred Rafael completely before landfall, which would be the best case outcome. Regardless, the likely biggest impact from Rafael will be heavy, but likely not torrential, flooding rains across much of the Gulf coast and inland. We may get some moisture from Rafael's remnants feeding a separate low pressure system, which could give us our first measurable rains in 40+ days for most late on Sunday into Monday (nothing huge, but needed rain).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
Big forecast changes for Rafael since yesterday afternoon, with Rafael now a Cat 2 nearing Cuba, but it's not even forecast to strike the US, at least not in the 5-day NHC forecast, as the storm is forecast to slow down in the GOM and the track has shifted significantly southward, due to the expected effects of a stronger ridge to the storm's north in 4-5 days. However, the track model divergence is huge after 5 days with the model ensembles split between the storm heading SW towards S Texas/Mexico vs. heading NE towards LA/MI/AL/FL Panhandle, although even if that still occurs, the storm will be a weak TS at best.
Just as importantly, just about every model shows Rafael being sheared apart (along with dry air entrainment, plus the waters in the central/northern GOM are not nearly as warm as in the Caribbean) once it reaches the central GOM and the forecast has the storm only being a 40 mph weakening TS in 5 days and it's quite possible we won't even have a TS beyond 5 days, which is the best case scenario.
At this point, the rainfall forecast for the Gulf Coast and inland in the SE US from Rafael has been significantly decreased, so flooding isn't a huge concern right now (there is a lot of rain forecast for GA/SC/FL Panhandle the next 2-3 days, but that's not really from Rafael directly) and the biggest impacts may end up being TS force winds in the SW Florida Keys and the possibility of isolated tornadoes in the Keys and SW FL, while Rafael is well off-shore, but still fairly strong. For much of the southern US, any rains will actually be beneficial, given how dry it's been there, also.
Unfortunately, for now, Rafael has strengthened quite a bit and is up to 100 mph as it approaches western Cuba and it could even reach Cat 3 status (forecast is for top end Cat 2 at 110 mph) at landfall there. Weakening will then occur from land interactions and then less favorable environmental conditions in the GOM.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
With regard to the seasonal forecast, it is interesting to note that the 2nd half of the tropical season was very active and while it looked like the season might have below normal activity back in early September, we’re now up to 17 named storms (14.4 avg), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg). This is a bit above normal in named storms (but somewhat below most seasonal forecasts) and well above normal for hurricanes and major hurricanes (and very close to seasonal forecasts), plus it's still possible we see 1-2 more named storms in November. And unfortunately, the US impacts were huge from several hurricanes, including Beryl, Debby and Francine, but especially from Helene and Milton, and at the end of the day, impacts are far more important than numbers.
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So after striking Cuba on Wednesday as a 115 mph Cat 3 hurricane causing considerable damage and killing 4 people, Rafael has again strengthened to a 120 mph hurricane in the central GOM, but fortunately it is forecast to start encountering increased shear and dry air entrainment and is expected to rapidly weaken to TS strength in 36-48 hours and to become a sheared out remnant in 5 days without ever coming close to the US Gulf Coast. This is one example of the NHC forecast track from a few days ago being pretty far off, which happens on occasion. The US dodged a bullet with this one with the only impacts being heavy surf and dangerous rip currents throughout the GOM.Big forecast changes for Rafael since yesterday afternoon, with Rafael now a Cat 2 nearing Cuba, but it's not even forecast to strike the US, at least not in the 5-day NHC forecast, as the storm is forecast to slow down in the GOM and the track has shifted significantly southward, due to the expected effects of a stronger ridge to the storm's north in 4-5 days. However, the track model divergence is huge after 5 days with the model ensembles split between the storm heading SW towards S Texas/Mexico vs. heading NE towards LA/MI/AL/FL Panhandle, although even if that still occurs, the storm will be a weak TS at best.
Just as importantly, just about every model shows Rafael being sheared apart (along with dry air entrainment, plus the waters in the central/northern GOM are not nearly as warm as in the Caribbean) once it reaches the central GOM and the forecast has the storm only being a 40 mph weakening TS in 5 days and it's quite possible we won't even have a TS beyond 5 days, which is the best case scenario.
At this point, the rainfall forecast for the Gulf Coast and inland in the SE US from Rafael has been significantly decreased, so flooding isn't a huge concern right now (there is a lot of rain forecast for GA/SC/FL Panhandle the next 2-3 days, but that's not really from Rafael directly) and the biggest impacts may end up being TS force winds in the SW Florida Keys and the possibility of isolated tornadoes in the Keys and SW FL, while Rafael is well off-shore, but still fairly strong. For much of the southern US, any rains will actually be beneficial, given how dry it's been there, also.
Unfortunately, for now, Rafael has strengthened quite a bit and is up to 100 mph as it approaches western Cuba and it could even reach Cat 3 status (forecast is for top end Cat 2 at 110 mph) at landfall there. Weakening will then occur from land interactions and then less favorable environmental conditions in the GOM.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Rafael has been blown to bits more quickly than expected and was no longer a TS, even, this morning and should be completely dissipated shortly. Amazing what shear and dry air can do.
As feared and predicted by many in September, this backloaded tropical season ain't over yet, as TS #18, Sara, is 90% likely to form in the central/western Caribbean in the next couple of days. Yesterday, several models were showing a major hurricane emerging into the GOM and threatening SW FL in 7-9 days, but last night the models mostly backed off on the intensity and a track hitting Florida eventually, although it's still possible - key question is whether the storm hits Honduras/Belize or the Mexican Yucatan and weakens a lot (or completely dissipates inland), which would be good for FL. Since we don't even have a storm yet, hard to answer that, but interests in Central America/Mexico, in particular, and in Cuba/Florida, eventually, need to pay attention to this one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61273-invest-99l/page/2/#comments
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61273-invest-99l/page/2/#comments
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Our models show northwest/north path which would take it into northern Mexico, Texas, Louisiana.
Well, nobody was close to right for Rafael and models are literally all over the map for this one with everything from a dissipating storm in Mexico to a weak TS near LA eventually to a Cat 1 striking the FL central Gulf Coast and more. This is what sometimes happens when a storm hasn't even formed yet, which means the initial and boundary conditions being fed into the models are much more inaccurate than when we have a defined storm, which means, in turn, that the model outputs are hugely uncertain.
We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 (Future Sara) in the Caribbean and the initial NHC forecast has Sara becoming a strong TS in a few days as it slowly skirts the northern coast of Honduras, which, sadly, is likely to result in catastrophic flooding and mudslides from 15-30" of rain (even if the storm doesn't become a hurricane). If the track stays offshore, the NHC thinks the storm could strengthen into a hurricane (some models have a Cat 2/3), but if it makes landfall or stays very close to Honduras, the storm likely remains a TS until it curves NW and likely makes another landfall along the Yucatan in about 5 days, which is the end of the NHC forecast period.
Beyond that the uncertainty is very high as there are models that have it recurve towards the FL Gulf Coast and/or Cuba and there are also models that have it largely dissipate in Mexico or perhaps emerge into the western GOM as a weak TS or remnant with a very uncertain future. Based on climatology, it's unlikely that a hurricane will strike the US anywhere in November as only 3 have done that in recorded history, but this year, the near record GOM water temps would clearly support development of a hurricane - the bigger question might be whether we'd see the kind of shear that ripped Rafael apart before it could reach the US Gulf Coast. Too early to know, which is why this system needs to be watched closely, especially for those on the FL Gulf Coast and SW Keys.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023539.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...estern-caribbean-possible-tropical-storm-sara
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
Beyond that the uncertainty is very high as there are models that have it recurve towards the FL Gulf Coast and/or Cuba and there are also models that have it largely dissipate in Mexico or perhaps emerge into the western GOM as a weak TS or remnant with a very uncertain future. Based on climatology, it's unlikely that a hurricane will strike the US anywhere in November as only 3 have done that in recorded history, but this year, the near record GOM water temps would clearly support development of a hurricane - the bigger question might be whether we'd see the kind of shear that ripped Rafael apart before it could reach the US Gulf Coast. Too early to know, which is why this system needs to be watched closely, especially for those on the FL Gulf Coast and SW Keys.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023539.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...estern-caribbean-possible-tropical-storm-sara
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
Our models continue to show the storm turning east towards Florida the middle of next week with a chance to become category 1 hurricane.
When you say “our” models? What are you referring to?
I appreciate all the valuable input
Thanks
We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 (Future Sara) in the Caribbean and the initial NHC forecast has Sara becoming a strong TS in a few days as it slowly skirts the northern coast of Honduras, which, sadly, is likely to result in catastrophic flooding and mudslides from 15-30" of rain (even if the storm doesn't become a hurricane). If the track stays offshore, the NHC thinks the storm could strengthen into a hurricane (some models have a Cat 2/3), but if it makes landfall or stays very close to Honduras, the storm likely remains a TS until it curves NW and likely makes another landfall along the Yucatan in about 5 days, which is the end of the NHC forecast period.
Beyond that the uncertainty is very high as there are models that have it recurve towards the FL Gulf Coast and/or Cuba and there are also models that have it largely dissipate in Mexico or perhaps emerge into the western GOM as a weak TS or remnant with a very uncertain future. Based on climatology, it's unlikely that a hurricane will strike the US anywhere in November as only 3 have done that in recorded history, but this year, the near record GOM water temps would clearly support development of a hurricane - the bigger question might be whether we'd see the kind of shear that ripped Rafael apart before it could reach the US Gulf Coast. Too early to know, which is why this system needs to be watched closely, especially for those on the FL Gulf Coast and SW Keys.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023539.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...estern-caribbean-possible-tropical-storm-sara
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
Tropical Storm Sara was named at 1 pm, but the good news is that the NHC is now calling for Sara to not strengthen beyond ~50 mph winds given how close it will be to the Honduran coast, and to dissipate in the next 4-5 days near the end of its journey across the Yucatan Peninsula, as per their discussion below. This is great news for Florida, although all of the models don't show complete dissipation (most do); let's see if that forecast continues before celebrating, though. The bad news continues to be the torrential rains of 10-25" expected for northern Honduras and far northern Nicaragua, which will bring catastrophic flooding/mudslides.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al19/al192024.discus.005.shtml?
Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Sometimes I have no idea why you post in these threads, especially when you make useless posts like this one, showing jet stream winds in a week making a sharp trough in the center of the country, but providing no context to it at all (presumably it's in this thread as those winds would be very hostile to the structure of any tropical system in the central/northern GOM).
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The company I work for. We work with a meteorology group. I guess technically, it's their models. We just don't go on NOAA website and download stuff. Sometimes we are in alignment, sometimes not.
Most of the 12Z models now show dissipation of Sara over the Yucatan and that's now the official NHC forecast. That forecast could be wrong, as not all models show that, but the chances for any significant tropical storm or hurricane surviving to Florida are greatly reduced. Let's see if that forecast holds, as Sara has already had a few surprises.
TS Sara is hammering Honduras, northern Nicaragua and soon Belize/Mexico with torrential flooding rains, with totals in northern Honduras forecast to be 15-30", as it crawls along the northern Honduran coast. Fortunately, confidence is now high in Sara dissipating as it crosses the Yucatan and its remnants not regenerating as they enter the GOM, so the US Gulf Coast (especially Florida) looks to have dodged a bullet. Even if Sara somehow survives into the GOM, the forecast is for high wind shear and dry air over most of the GOM, so the odds on any named system surviving that are very low. However tropical moisture from Sara's remnants is likely to stream NE-ward likely bringing mostly beneficial rains to the SE US including Florida. An excerpt from the NHC discussion is below.Tropical Storm Sara was named at 1 pm, but the good news is that the NHC is now calling for Sara to not strengthen beyond ~50 mph winds given how close it will be to the Honduran coast, and to dissipate in the next 4-5 days near the end of its journey across the Yucatan Peninsula, as per their discussion below. This is great news for Florida, although all of the models don't show complete dissipation (most do); let's see if that forecast continues before celebrating, though. The bad news continues to be the torrential rains of 10-25" expected for northern Honduras and far northern Nicaragua, which will bring catastrophic flooding/mudslides.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al19/al192024.discus.005.shtml?
Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/150255.shtml?
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous
forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle
of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
While flooding damage from 15-30+" of rain in northern Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize was substantial to catastrophic in some areas (including 4 deaths in Honduras and Nicaragua), fortunately, Sara has dissipated to a non-tropical entity in Mexico and will have no further development in the GOM, as per the last advisory on Sara's remnants this morning, below. Sara could very well be the last storm of the Atlantic Basin season, based on the look ahead from the NHC. If so, the season would end with 18 named storms (14.4 avg), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), all of which are well above average and would mean the seasonal forecasts from most sources, like CSU and NOAA were reasonably accurate, despite the slow start to the season. Will wait for the season to be over for a full look back.
Very interesting post-mortem in the link below from Tomer Burg (a well respected young meteorologist) on what went wrong with Sara's forecast, which, about 5 days ago was showing significant potential for a hurricane/TS to emerge from the Caribbean into the GOM and eventually track towards the Gulf coast somewhere between LA and FL, with FL being the most likely target. The models showing these outcomes were obviously wrong, for several reasons including Sara forming close to Central America (Honduras) than originally thought and moving further SW towards the Honduran coast preventing strengthening - a stronger storm further offshore would've been more likely to survive the trek over the Yucatan and emerge into the GOM with a chance to then head towards the US Gulf Coast.
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/blog/post.php?date=20241116
Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no
longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning
to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While
strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical
development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with
an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the
expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Very interesting post-mortem in the link below from Tomer Burg (a well respected young meteorologist) on what went wrong with Sara's forecast, which, about 5 days ago was showing significant potential for a hurricane/TS to emerge from the Caribbean into the GOM and eventually track towards the Gulf coast somewhere between LA and FL, with FL being the most likely target. The models showing these outcomes were obviously wrong, for several reasons including Sara forming close to Central America (Honduras) than originally thought and moving further SW towards the Honduran coast preventing strengthening - a stronger storm further offshore would've been more likely to survive the trek over the Yucatan and emerge into the GOM with a chance to then head towards the US Gulf Coast.
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/blog/post.php?date=20241116
Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no
longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning
to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While
strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical
development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with
an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the
expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
