Tropicana was supposed to be either a shelter or housing for clean up crews. Or both maybe?
Being critiqued now as the skin on that roof is a fiberglass fabric of some sort.
OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Being critiqued now as the skin on that roof is a fiberglass fabric of some sort.
Update on the tornado from yesterday in Fort Pierce: it has been confirmed that 4 people died in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village development in the Lakeland Park area of northern Ft. Pierce (only a mile or so from Vero Beach, so this kind of scared my dad and my brother and my sister, who all live in Vero in separate locations) from that EF3 (estimated) tornado that ripped through the area. Tornadoes are common with hurricanes, often well away from the storm in outer bands, as these were, but strong tornadoes are very unusual (EF3 is much stronger than the EF1's that are typical) and the number of tornadoes was also unusual, with 125 tornado warnings issued and 38 actual tornadoes touching down.
https://www.wpbf.com/.../officials-multiple.../62561027
https://www.wpbf.com/.../officials-multiple.../62561027
Our first report on damage is 50,000+ homes needing roof repair, 20,000+ homes needing replacement roof.
Report out of siesta Key - storm surge less than Helene.
Gulf did not breach the inter coastal
Gulf did not breach the inter coastal
Storm track being south definitely helped.
NE quadrant of a storm tracking east is not going to produce a surge.
Wonder what the levels were in Fort Myers?
Helene had more repairs, less replacement. But Helene also went across a larger area of the country. I actually thought numbers would be higher. They may still go up as these numbers are only hours after the storm passed. With this info we are already beginning to move inventory.
Sounds like much less damage than expected. Not fun, but many feared it would be worse.
The track forecast for Milton was impressive, as it was only off by 12 miles at landfall vs. the first advisory and over the 5 days Milton was being tracked the landfall forecast was always within a 40-mile wide spread from St. Pete to about Siesta Key. And the intensity forecast was quite good, as even the 2nd advisory had Milton being a major hurricane in ~2 days and then at landfall with ranges of 115-135 mph at landfall and the final number was 120 mph. The forecast missed Milton intensifying to a Cat 5, but that's a minor miss, as it generally had Milton reaching Cat 4 over the GOM, but a Cat 3 at landfall and the landfall forecast being correct is far more important.
Also, the forecast captured the impact of the approaching front from the NW well a few days in advance, predicting it would weaken the storm from Cat 5 to Cat 3 by landfall, which it did, and predicting a few days in advance that the storm would have the unusual characteristic of heavier rainfall and winds north of the storm's track, due to interactions with the front enhancing convection/rainfall/winds.
And I would not call the forecast a "miss" on the storm surge for Tampa Bay, as the track was too close of a call to back off on those 9-13' surge forecasts until the last minute - even 6 hours before landfall, Milton started a move north, which if it had been sustained for 2 more hours, would have likely led to a Tampa Bay landfall instead of a Siesta Key landfall, about 20 miles south of Tampa Bay: forecast track errors 6-12 hours out are still 15-20 miles. It is a shame, however, that the uncertainty on track/surge led to evacuating tens of thousands from the coast to shelters inland that ended up with major flooding due to the rains.
The biggest "surprise" to some extent was the unprecedented number of tornado warnings and actual tornadoes - the forecast highlighted a significant tornado risk south of the track, which is typical with landfalling hurricanes, but I don't think anyone thought we'd have that many.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
Also, the forecast captured the impact of the approaching front from the NW well a few days in advance, predicting it would weaken the storm from Cat 5 to Cat 3 by landfall, which it did, and predicting a few days in advance that the storm would have the unusual characteristic of heavier rainfall and winds north of the storm's track, due to interactions with the front enhancing convection/rainfall/winds.
And I would not call the forecast a "miss" on the storm surge for Tampa Bay, as the track was too close of a call to back off on those 9-13' surge forecasts until the last minute - even 6 hours before landfall, Milton started a move north, which if it had been sustained for 2 more hours, would have likely led to a Tampa Bay landfall instead of a Siesta Key landfall, about 20 miles south of Tampa Bay: forecast track errors 6-12 hours out are still 15-20 miles. It is a shame, however, that the uncertainty on track/surge led to evacuating tens of thousands from the coast to shelters inland that ended up with major flooding due to the rains.
The biggest "surprise" to some extent was the unprecedented number of tornado warnings and actual tornadoes - the forecast highlighted a significant tornado risk south of the track, which is typical with landfalling hurricanes, but I don't think anyone thought we'd have that many.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
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Our Valdosta, GA plant has been down since Helene. Our Tampa plant was down and supposed to restart this week. It suffered more damage so will be down for a few weeks. Means we have to ship roofing materials in from our other plants. Also, Florida requires Miami Dade certification so we can only ship materials labeled with that certification.
I would say less damage than expected in the most vulnerable, highest population/greatest property value area (Tampa Metro), since the storm ended up ~20 miles from what could have been a beyond catastrophic landfall up Tampa Bay, but "much less damage" is simply wrong. Nearly 4 MM people lost power, 16 died (vs. 19 in Florida from Helene), and there has been an estimated $50 billion worth of damage in FL (similar to Helene), especially due to catastrophic river flooding in the Tampa region and catastrophic storm surge damage from about Sarasota southward, plus the incredible damage from nearly 40 tornadoes all over the state in the biggest tornado outbreak ever in Florida.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/florida-in-hurricane-milton-damage
Update on the tropics. We now have Invest 94L in the Atlantic and the NHC puts this system (which has a nice low level circulation, but doesn't have much in the way of convection surrounding it) at a 40% chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 7 days as the wave move towards the Leeward Islands/PR/Bahamas. Worth watching as some models develop this into a hurricane, but some models show no significant development.
On another note, we're now up to just about an average season (13 named storms vs. 14.4 on average), but we're unlikely to get to well above average this season (like 18 or so), as forecasted by CSU, NOAA and others, so the seasonal forecasts will likely be wrong on that count. However, many would argue that the predictions for hurricanes and major hurricanes are at least as important as total storms and on that count, we're a bit above average and could still get to the well above normal predictions, as we've had 9 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 avg).
On another note, we're now up to just about an average season (13 named storms vs. 14.4 on average), but we're unlikely to get to well above average this season (like 18 or so), as forecasted by CSU, NOAA and others, so the seasonal forecasts will likely be wrong on that count. However, many would argue that the predictions for hurricanes and major hurricanes are at least as important as total storms and on that count, we're a bit above average and could still get to the well above normal predictions, as we've had 9 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 avg).
Is this storm headed to Florida ? I hope not ! 🙏Update on the tropics. We now have Invest 94L in the Atlantic and the NHC puts this system (which has a nice low level circulation, but doesn't have much in the way of convection surrounding it) at a 40% chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 7 days as the wave move towards the Leeward Islands/PR/Bahamas. Worth watching as some models develop this into a hurricane, but some models show no significant development.
On another note, we're now up to just about an average season (13 named storms vs. 14.4 on average), but we're unlikely to get to well above average this season (like 18 or so), as forecasted by CSU, NOAA and others, so the seasonal forecasts will likely be wrong on that count. However, many would argue that the predictions for hurricanes and major hurricanes are at least as important as total storms and on that count, we're a bit above average and could still get to the well above normal predictions, as we've had 9 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 avg).
Way too early to speculate, but if PR/Bahamas are possible, then so is Florida. But let's see if there's even a storm before worrying about this one.
Down graded to 10%. late last night now back up to 30%. Was this expected before a possible strengthening? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
How do those materials differ from non-certified materials? Payoffs to Miami officials?
What's keeping the plant down?
Both plants suffered damage. Valdosta significant wind damage to the building (no issues with roof). Tampa had significant flooding causing damage to electrical units, motors, etc. Water level was up to 5 feet within the plant itself.
For Miami Dade certification, the materials of construction of the shingle. Specifically the tear strength of the shingle and the adhesives used. Contrary to what most people think, the nails the roofer bangs into the roof when installing a shingle does not hold the shingle to the roof during a storm. Must pass wind testing requirements, minimum 146 mph for a 3 second gust. Non-certified materials may pass the wind testing, but cannot put it on the label with approval from Miami Dade. Without the certification on the label sellers of roofing shingles will not purchase the materials. You can install non-certified materials but don't think insurance will cover the loss.
- Product approval
All building products must meet Florida Product Approval or receive a Notice of Acceptance (NOA) from Miami-Dade County.
- Testing
Testing must be performed at an ISO/IEC 17025 accredited laboratory and be specific to the roofing material, manufacturer, and finished profile. Tests should not be older than six months from the time of completion.
Ugh! That would explain the down time. I'm guessing a lot of that equipment needs to be replaced.
Unfortunately yes for motors and electrical components. The major manufacturing equipment which is primarily above the conveyor belts weren't damaged.
Update on the tropics. We now have Invest 94L in the Atlantic and the NHC puts this system (which has a nice low level circulation, but doesn't have much in the way of convection surrounding it) at a 40% chance to develop into a tropical storm in the next 7 days as the wave move towards the Leeward Islands/PR/Bahamas. Worth watching as some models develop this into a hurricane, but some models show no significant development.
On another note, we're now up to just about an average season (13 named storms vs. 14.4 on average), but we're unlikely to get to well above average this season (like 18 or so), as forecasted by CSU, NOAA and others, so the seasonal forecasts will likely be wrong on that count. However, many would argue that the predictions for hurricanes and major hurricanes are at least as important as total storms and on that count, we're a bit above average and could still get to the well above normal predictions, as we've had 9 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 avg).
As of yesterday, forecasts were for Invest 94L approaching Cuba to likely be a non-entity and for the small blob near the Yucatan to probably not form a TS and then boom, now we have tiny Hurricane Oscar and TS Nadine. Oscar became a TS at 11 am this morning with 40 mph winds and rapidly intensified to a hurricane with 80 mph winds by 2 pm and is taking aim at Cuba with ~90 mph winds likely at a possible landfall early Monday morning: will be a very close call if Oscar makes landfall before thankfully, looking to make a quick u-turn and head NE and out to sea, while steadily weakening instead of making a run at Florida. It's an incredibly tiny storm with hurricane force winds only extending out about 5 miles from the center and TS force winds only going out about 30 miles and this is one case where the hurricane hunter data is much better than the satellite data, as per the discussion below.
TS Nadine made landfall about 6 hours ago in Belize as a minimal TS with 40-45 mph winds, after just being named very early this morning. Nadine should dissipate quickly and the big risk from Nadine is torrential rain and flooding/mudslides. Obviously, this tropical season ain't over yet - and the medium range models (especially the Euro, which has been quite accurate in the 2-4 week timeframe) are still showing above normal activity through early November, so we may still have a few more storms.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.
Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.
The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
"And what hurricane is the gfs trying to cook up here on its long range model to welcome November? Just something to watch for now..."
You'd get banned on a weather board for posting a 15 day operational model run..."And what hurricane is the gfs trying to cook up here on its long range model to welcome November? Just something to watch for now..."
Sigh…I wonder whatever happened to her?As of yesterday, forecasts were for Invest 94L approaching Cuba to likely be a non-entity and for the small blob near the Yucatan to probably not form a TS and then boom, now we have tiny Hurricane Oscar and TS Nadine. Oscar became a TS at 11 am this morning with 40 mph winds and rapidly intensified to a hurricane with 80 mph winds by 2 pm and is taking aim at Cuba with ~90 mph winds likely at a possible landfall early Monday morning: will be a very close call if Oscar makes landfall before thankfully, looking to make a quick u-turn and head NE and out to sea, while steadily weakening instead of making a run at Florida. It's an incredibly tiny storm with hurricane force winds only extending out about 5 miles from the center and TS force winds only going out about 30 miles and this is one case where the hurricane hunter data is much better than the satellite data, as per the discussion below.
TS Nadine made landfall about 6 hours ago in Belize as a minimal TS with 40-45 mph winds, after just being named very early this morning. Nadine should dissipate quickly and the big risk from Nadine is torrential rain and flooding/mudslides. Obviously, this tropical season ain't over yet - and the medium range models (especially the Euro, which has been quite accurate in the 2-4 week timeframe) are still showing above normal activity through early November, so we may still have a few more storms.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.
Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.
The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Douglass girl. Really nice person, natural beauty, sweet voice. Looked like Marilyn Monroe when MM was still a redhead.
Good thing this ain't a weather board I guess.
Kind of fun to see how well a forecast that far out comes to pass.
I can just about guarantee it won't pan out, as 15-day forecasts almost never do for any specific weather, let alone a hurricane. It's just useless drivel to post it. In the 8 GFS model runs since the one TT posted, the model has been all over the map with regard to potential tropical systems in the Caribbean, GOM, and Atlantic in the next 12-15 days.
Some showed no system, some showed weak to moderate to strong systems in various locations, but there has been little consistency, which is what one should expect this far out, given the chaotic nature of numerical weather prediction, where very minor perturbations in initial conditions can have huge downstream implications (the butterfly effect). That's why I see no point in posting such maps.
Spent the afternoon yesterday with our meteorology people. Here is a quick summary.
- November temperatures across the country are expected to be warmer than normal.
- Record lack of precipitation across the country for past 30 days.
- 2024 is the 3rd lowest number of significant hail events since 2000. We are entering a La Nina weather pattern which will suppress hail events so in the next 3 months the number of incidents is expected to be lower than normal. Then it will depend on when we begin to transition out of La Nina.
- Over the next 7 days, we are expected to have increased weather severity across the central plains and southern plains. During days 7 through 14 this will begin to advance eastward to lower Mississippi Valley.
- More rain activity is expected across the central US and Pacific Northwest over the next 7 days. This will shift during days 8-14 to southern US, southeastern US and Pacific Northwest.
There's a lot of talk, not necessarily from the usual sources, about this low down by the Yucatan Peninsula. Thoughts on development?
The NHC has been monitoring this for days and the probability of development into a named system has crept up from 20% to 50% over this time with several models showing at least a TS forming in the next 4-7 days (see their discussion below), but only one model shows a storm headed into the Gulf of Mexico eventually (GFS threatens northern GOM in about 8-9 days as a strong TS or maybe Cat 1 hurricane, but that's way too far out to rely on).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Well, Subtropical storm Patty spun up really quickly today, being named at 9 am out in the central Atlantic and it's up to 65 mph as it nears the Azores, which will get slammed pretty hard with TS force winds and rain (it's not supposed to become a hurricane).
After that Patty will become a non-tropical storm and will likely bring stormy weather to Spain, which doesn't need any more rain after their catastrophic flooding last week, which has killed at least 205 people mostly in the Valencia area, which got a year's worth of rain (nearly 20") in 8 hours, which is just crazy. Don't know if there's a thread on that, but figured I'd mention it here, including links to a heartbreaking video and story.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/climate/spain-valencia-floods.html
And the tropical wave in the Caribbean is now 80% likely to form a named storm in the next several days and if so this will be called Raphael. Unfortunately, some of the models (especially the ensembles, which are usually best for the longer term) show there is the potential for a this system to move into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening Florida somewhere between the Panhandle and SW FL (the spread is quite large); fortunately, the models currently show this system remaining just a tropical storm, but intensity forecasts are low confidence this far out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L
After that Patty will become a non-tropical storm and will likely bring stormy weather to Spain, which doesn't need any more rain after their catastrophic flooding last week, which has killed at least 205 people mostly in the Valencia area, which got a year's worth of rain (nearly 20") in 8 hours, which is just crazy. Don't know if there's a thread on that, but figured I'd mention it here, including links to a heartbreaking video and story.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/climate/spain-valencia-floods.html
And the tropical wave in the Caribbean is now 80% likely to form a named storm in the next several days and if so this will be called Raphael. Unfortunately, some of the models (especially the ensembles, which are usually best for the longer term) show there is the potential for a this system to move into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening Florida somewhere between the Panhandle and SW FL (the spread is quite large); fortunately, the models currently show this system remaining just a tropical storm, but intensity forecasts are low confidence this far out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L
Not enough data to say it will hit Florida or Florida panhandle. Right now it may hit anywhere from northern Mexico to Florida.Well, Subtropical storm Patty spun up really quickly today, being named at 9 am out in the central Atlantic and it's up to 65 mph as it nears the Azores, which will get slammed pretty hard with TS force winds and rain (it's not supposed to become a hurricane).
After that Patty will become a non-tropical storm and will likely bring stormy weather to Spain, which doesn't need any more rain after their catastrophic flooding last week, which has killed at least 205 people mostly in the Valencia area, which got a year's worth of rain (nearly 20") in 8 hours, which is just crazy. Don't know if there's a thread on that, but figured I'd mention it here, including links to a heartbreaking video and story.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/climate/spain-valencia-floods.html
And the tropical wave in the Caribbean is now 80% likely to form a named storm in the next several days and if so this will be called Raphael. Unfortunately, some of the models (especially the ensembles, which are usually best for the longer term) show there is the potential for a this system to move into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening Florida somewhere between the Panhandle and SW FL (the spread is quite large); fortunately, the models currently show this system remaining just a tropical storm, but intensity forecasts are low confidence this far out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L
Of course not. I never said it was going to hit anywhere in particular, since we don't even have a storm yet. I just said there was the potential for it to move into the GOM and threaten Florida as per some of the models.
We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one, both with regard to track and intensity, although the northern Gulf Coast (TX to FL) seems to be the area of greatest risk of landfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
