After last year's 3rd busiest tropical season ever, with 21 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, many of which wreaked havoc for numerous locations in the Atlantic Basin and the US, with 8 tropical systems making US landfalls, including, of course, Henri and Ida, which brought record rainfall and flooding to parts of our area, both CSU (Colorado State U, home of the late, great Dr. Gray, who pioneered seasonal tropical forecasting for the Atlantic Basin nearly 40 years ago) and NOAA are predicting a somewhat to well above average tropical season in the Atlantic this year. This is just two years after 2020's record smashing tropical season, featuring 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. Busy cycle we're in.
CSU's prediction is for 20 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 10 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA issued their forecast 2 weeks ago and it's a little bit lower than CSU's, but still somewhat above average with predictions of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 17.5 named storms (20 from CSU), 8 hurricanes (10 from CSU) and 4.5 major hurricanes (5 from CSU).
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season
Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the neutral ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state, which is expected to continue (El Nino conditions inhibit tropical activity) and current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs as keys to their forecasts.
We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). If RU4Real were still around, he'd have a prediction contest...
And we're about to have tropical storm Alex named as our first storm of the season, after this low pressure system inundated much of South Florida with torrential flooding rains over the past day or so (but it didn't have enough tropical characteristics to be named yet). It's heading ENE towards Bermuda and won't strengthen much (50-60 mph, tops).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#One