Every game is weighted equally. It would be absurd to change this IMO.
You know what actually weights non-conference more than conference games? Looking at specifically non-conference SOS and wins.
BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***
- Thread starter bac2therac
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You know what actually weights non-conference more than conference games? Looking at specifically non-conference SOS and wins.
You’re not crazy. If this is accurate then 10, 11 and even 12 seeds advance to the sweet 16 more often than 8’s and 9’s.
12 seeds have over a 3x greater chance getting to the sweet 16 compared to a 9! 11 seeds almost have a 4x greater chance!
BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?
March Madness: What are the odds? A tool for bracketologists.
non conference wins are important IMO...the amount by what you beat up on turds is meaningless You arent better because you win by 30 instead of 16
I guess the net net of what I was saying is that we MUST WIN tonight. And if we don't completely new calculations need be made and while the NW may then decide things in our favor with a win, against us with another loss.. I think the Big Ten tourney may then become the final deciding factor.
So it is not the opposite day... and the whole discussion will, hopefully, be proven moot with a decisive victory tonight. I just have that nagging feeling that if we do not look as good as we once were this season.. a possible 4-5 seed look.. that the committee will hold off discussing our case long enough to make the late-season negatives look worse than the early-season positives. I don't think the whole-season resume will be the deciding factor. I think the committee will pick and choose what standard to apply to what team's case. They have done similar things in teh past with seeming sure-thing invites getting snubbed because of some late-season flaws.
it wouldnt have moved their actual metrics much although it gives them an extra quad 1 win but in reality that win is meaningless because Ohio State now sucks so RU would be a lock right now but probably still an 8
Plus SHU residual. Two more wins, two less losses, ranked and probably a six seed looking lovingly at a possible 5 seed.
That's a separate discussion though.. for some teams the conference games are the turds.
What if we were undefeated?
This team doesn’t deserve to make it. Not even the least bit upset. We stink
This will be the 4th Q3 loss for Rutgers....RU will be just 11-12 in Q1/2/3
The NET is going to drop, just how much is the question. RU was 8 heading into tonight, would have stayed an 8 if they won, I need to see all the numbers tomorrow. By eyeballing RU could end up on the 10 line tomorrow.
The NET is going to drop, just how much is the question. RU was 8 heading into tonight, would have stayed an 8 if they won, I need to see all the numbers tomorrow. By eyeballing RU could end up on the 10 line tomorrow.
Give me that non Dayton 11 seed.
But I do think we're out entirely if we lose the next two.
But I do think we're out entirely if we lose the next two.
especially when say they can take Utah State or Oral Roberts if they lose or Florida Atlantic. Hell even Charleston
Everyone better root hard for Purdue here as Wisconsin is on the verge of pulling a major upset that will likely lock them in unless they lose at Minnesota
Good news is ASU is getting beat up by UCLA
Good news is ASU is getting beat up by UCLA
Purdue missing every wide open 3 (they get so many wide open looks) and wisky hot from 3 the first 30 minutes.
Ok so we win at Wisc a week ago. Yet if they beat Purdue they are locked in and we aren’t. This stuff is beyond silly.
Wisconsin absolutely deserves to be ahead of us if they beat Purdue, and probably even if they don't.
because they have a better resume..they dont have 4 Q3, losses, they have 2 non conference wins of note and they dont play a trash ooc schedule.
For me, that was the ideal Wisconsin result...take the loss, but hopefully hold steady in the NET to stay a Q1 (home)/Q2 (road) game, at least for now.
hey look..Purdue actually guarded the inbound and made them work for it and they had to throw a mid court shot...i know 1.4 more seconds but really shows how horrific RU executed that last play. I mean Battle had such an easy open look
anyhow Wisconsin falls and now down to 16-13 with a game at Minnesota to finish...must win for them. We will see tomorrow whether they and Michigan are still in the field but I tend to lean they are
Arizona State loses to UCLA and they get USC this weekend which is their chance to state their case
USC hosting Arizona now. Root hard for Zona because a USC win will lock them in and put them above RU on the seed lines
Memphis is finishing off SMU and they are starting to solidify their bid even without beating Houston this weekend. Not a lock but likely
anyhow Wisconsin falls and now down to 16-13 with a game at Minnesota to finish...must win for them. We will see tomorrow whether they and Michigan are still in the field but I tend to lean they are
Arizona State loses to UCLA and they get USC this weekend which is their chance to state their case
USC hosting Arizona now. Root hard for Zona because a USC win will lock them in and put them above RU on the seed lines
Memphis is finishing off SMU and they are starting to solidify their bid even without beating Houston this weekend. Not a lock but likely
Means nothing to the bubble, but Liberty-Kennesaw St should be a good one for the A-Sun title on Sunday. Liberty the better team, but have to go on the road to Kennesaw where they lost a few weeks ago (and it will obviously be an amped up crowd).
You must be kidding me and just started watching college basketball. But not this year because you are just a little blind. The same thing happened to MSU just 1 week ago. There have been some incredible results with unranked teams beating ranked teams at a record rate. Our total play this year definitely deserves the NCAA and we slid from 8 to 9 or 10. We have been in a ton of close games going into last minute or two Purdue , NW , Wisconsin , Indiana away , Penn State away , Ohio State ,away Minnesota ,away MSU at MSG . We won some and lost some in the second best conference inthe country. You think we do not deserve it compared to who. Get a grip and get some logic in your opinion
I think there are a lot of teams that are more deserving on pure wins/losses. Much like last year we are getting rewarded for inconsistency, i.e. beating good teams and losing to bad ones.
its Minnesota though, we didnt lose to Iowa in a crazy well played high performance game. This was an awful finish and choke to a god awful team
thats why I never want the tourney expanded because all you would do is take a bunch of medicore teams who on a good day can get a win but they also can play like crap.
RU is somwhat like Auburn who has tanked their year end. They played awful vs Kentucky and some other sec scrub in Q3 but they played Alabama down to the wire...but eye test, which isnt a criteria but the committee does watch games...they see Auburn fighting at Alabama and they see RU choking at Minnesota
Well at least one bracketoligust had us out prior to this game…many had us as an 11 seed…and I’d assume will drop us out. We disagree. Relax
no this doesnt drop us out as of today
the guy who had us out is using a computer system to do his brackets
Dayton has a cool arena but I think once there in my lifetime is enough.
I wouldnt even put us in last four in now, we are above that...pickings are scarce...Wisconsin losing helped alot...they are only 16-13, Michigan who i have in but most dont is 17-13, Ok state is 16-14
North Carolina has only 1 Q1 win....better hope they dont beat Duke because if they do they are in
North Carolina has only 1 Q1 win....better hope they dont beat Duke because if they do they are in
Arizona holds off USC but the Trojans dont lose any ground by losing and will stay in the field.
Oregon wins big over California and will get a big NET boost and now can throw their hat back in the ring at 17-13
Oregon wins big over California and will get a big NET boost and now can throw their hat back in the ring at 17-13
107 on bracketmatrix and you ignore 106 of them. We were on average the first 9 seed. I will relax but just get your facts like correct before the opinion that follows so you don’t look foolish.
tonights results wil not appear in the matrix til tomorrow evening so thats when you need to look
So then if we win one more game (our loss would be q2 or q1) by definition we stay in. Correct?
if we beat Northwestern we stay in for now but I would hesitate to call it a stone cold lock when there are 4 Q3 losses, odds are more than 75% its enough without having to beat Ill/NW/Mich/MD/Ind in Big 10 tourney opener
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