with or without Michigan......there is zero shot all 3 get in. 2 is possible. one is probable but none of them is still on the table
BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Yes and no. Head to head is big but the committee knows it’s an unbalanced schedule and we got 2 games against Minnesota. So comparing record in the standings definitely is not apples to apples.
The flip side of this of course is that NW got one more chance than us against a contender to pad their resume with an extra quality win.
The bigger point on us vs. NW isn't that it is a slam dunk that we should be over them if we win out next two, but that the resumes would be very close. Bracket matrix consensus as I type had them as a 6 and us at 9. That gap is too big IF we win out.
Its complete bullshit
They have no quad 1 wins
They are not better than Penn St Michigan or Wisconsin
They are a 7-13 team in the Big 10
It’s concerning because a NET that high has never been left out. I think 33 is the best NET to be left out and they would likely stay top 30 with say 2 more losses to Boise (1 reg 1 conference Tourn) and a conference tournament win over New Mexico. If that happens they have no business being in the tournament and SHOULD break the record for best NET to be left out.
If they win their next 2 and lose conference semis they will have a strong case but be right on the bubble. If they lose to Boise then make the conference finals same story, strong case but on the bubble. Win next 3 and they almost definitely get in. Sound right?
Keep in mind that we've only had 3 tournaments under the NET so far...under the RPI, Missouri State was once left out with an RPI of 21 (in 2006) with the same type of profile lacking high-end wins.
Utah St is just such a unique profile...I give them credit for only playing 3 Quad 4 games all season. They put together a really good non-conference schedule with solid but not spectacular teams (Utah Valley, Bradley, Oral, Washington St, Santa Clara, etc). I think if they beat Boise St, beat San Jose St in the quarters, and lose to San Diego St in the semis, it's really interesting. Winning that San Diego St game would all but lock them in (assuming they also beat Boise).
Reminder that when a committee member looks at a weird metric that disagrees with their reading of the resume the reaction is usually "Utah State's NET ranking is not indicative of their resume" and not "wow, I must be wrong about Utah State."
Utah St has wins over a bunch of quality Q2 and Q3 teams that have good or better wins and quality losses.
H 82 Utah Valley 1-2 / 3-2 / 7-2
H 57 Bradley 0-5 / 3-1 / 6-2
H 80 Santa Clara 1-5 / 3-1 / 11-1
H 47 Oral Roberts 0-4 / 1-0 / 5-0
Q3 160 Utah Tech
San Diego, San Fran, Q2 N 100 LMU 4 teams from WCC
A lot of teams that are in the top half of their next 6 / mid major conferences, or one of the favorites to be AQs, their one bad loss is an AAC loss, their three lowest rated opponents are 200, 201, 223.
N 77 Wash St 1-11 / 5-3 / 2-0, 1 win @ Arizona
Nevada 4-5 / 4-2
New Mexico 3-4 / 3-1
and middle pack MWC teams.
Their KPI is high 21 and strength of record(SOR) 51, win vs 27 Boise St Q1/2 10-5 would strengthen their resume put them much closer in than out.
Wins over and close losses to P6 teams, road or neutral, can scare off teams from scheduling them the next year.
H 82 Utah Valley 1-2 / 3-2 / 7-2
H 57 Bradley 0-5 / 3-1 / 6-2
H 80 Santa Clara 1-5 / 3-1 / 11-1
H 47 Oral Roberts 0-4 / 1-0 / 5-0
Q3 160 Utah Tech
San Diego, San Fran, Q2 N 100 LMU 4 teams from WCC
A lot of teams that are in the top half of their next 6 / mid major conferences, or one of the favorites to be AQs, their one bad loss is an AAC loss, their three lowest rated opponents are 200, 201, 223.
N 77 Wash St 1-11 / 5-3 / 2-0, 1 win @ Arizona
Nevada 4-5 / 4-2
New Mexico 3-4 / 3-1
and middle pack MWC teams.
Their KPI is high 21 and strength of record(SOR) 51, win vs 27 Boise St Q1/2 10-5 would strengthen their resume put them much closer in than out.
Wins over and close losses to P6 teams, road or neutral, can scare off teams from scheduling them the next year.
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Utah State’s RPI is 15 as of right now.
They’ve basically feasted on beating a ton of UMass Lowell types on their home floor - Utah Valley, Bradley, Santa Clara, Oral Roberts, and Loyola Maramount.
FWIW, all 5 of those teams are better than UMass Lowell (some of them significantly). The Power 5 equivalents to them would be something like Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Vandy, Florida, and Washington. Not teams that are going to dance, but teams that can certainly beat you if you have an off night (or even if you have an average night and they play well).
The SHU loss really hurts. I think but for the aftermath of the fu@k job at OSU we win that game. But who knows?
You know that the NET has to be taken as just 1 factor because it is so much bullshit. Vanderbilt goes into Rupp against a red hot Kentucky team , whose NET was 19 and Vandy’s NET was 85 , despite winning 7 of their last 8 , and wins the game. Result today. Kentucky drops from 19 to 21 , how ? Vandy goes up , wait for it ? 85 to 84. Are you f/—ing kidding me ? Vandy is a borderline bubble team playing well but that NET of 84 hangs over their head. They also have not gotten the NET credit for winning 7 of their last 8 including beating Kentucky and Florida on the road and also have wins over Tennessee , Auburn and Arkansas as well as a PITT win so at least 5 wins over teams in the field. Hope they make an SEC tourney run.
Gift that keeps giving. Cost us two games and who knows how high in the seedings.
what is happening is the non conference is simply weighted too heavily...I get its 1/3 of the season and it matters to play a tough schedule. However most teams at the beginning of the year are just figuring their teams out. Alot of these games will be closer and even in Q4 just because of this. Does it matter than Vandy is eeking out a 3 point win over Wofford so long as they win. The predictive metrics is bunk. Yet that type of metric is factored in how the NET is determined. The idea that teams do not get better as the season rolls along is totally disregarded. I get that it would hurt RU this particular year but in general it should matter if you are tanking the season like Iowa State and Auburn and you are finishing strong like Vandy. Their big misstep in this comeback was the loss at LSU if not they would be right among the last 4 out.
Sorry but it all seems like subjective BS mixed with some BS metrics to make it appear objective.
What does this even mean, in what way is the NET subjective? It's literally a math formula.
Weird how so often there's a cluster of Big Ten teams around the NET #30 line. Happening again this season.
What the NET prioritizes might have been subjectively inputted. For example, perhaps a human programmed the NET to give more weight to margin of victory on the road than margin of victory at home. I’d argue that’s irrelevant information and not objective. Even if one disagrees with my example, my point is that the NET might produce objective output based on subjective input (ie garbage in, garbage out).
It’s really hard for these types of mid-majors to go out on the road (not neutral site but true road) and win. It happens occasionally - but actually, Utah State lost one such game - Weber State one.
When SFA came to our house, we found a way to win the game. We crapped the bed in Canada like at Mohegan Sun. It’s quite a bit different. We’re not willing to play home and homes against these types of schools. Utah State is. That’s the difference. I’m sure Pike would like to get better mid majors into the RAC but it’s not that easy.
Also recall we got super unlucky with Rider. They probably lead the nation in single digit losses, including that 1 point dagger at Providence to open the season.
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I guess that’s the real answer. You have to give the Mid Majors some kind of fighting chance if you’re not going to play them home and away .
PSU also plays nothing but cupcakes out of conference and I don’t see 10-10 with a joke non conference getting the benefit.
Update
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, USC, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, PENN STATE, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE
NEXT 7 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, VANDERBILT, CLEMSON, OREGON, OKLAHOMA STATE, TEXAS TECH
Even though Pittsburgh is still technically the AQ from the ACC now in a 3 way tie, I am going to go against protocol and list them here as an at large for analysis purposes to show them dropping to the 11 line.
Auburn with a loss to Alabama moved slightly up above the last 4 byes but is still in danger
North Carolina State has now fallen to my last team in the field.
Vanderbilt has arisen from the dead to at least contend in the nether regions
Rutgers is still an 8 seed along with Texas A&M, Illinois and now Maryland dropping down into that grouping
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, WEST VIRGINIA
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, USC, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, PENN STATE, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE
NEXT 7 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, VANDERBILT, CLEMSON, OREGON, OKLAHOMA STATE, TEXAS TECH
Even though Pittsburgh is still technically the AQ from the ACC now in a 3 way tie, I am going to go against protocol and list them here as an at large for analysis purposes to show them dropping to the 11 line.
Auburn with a loss to Alabama moved slightly up above the last 4 byes but is still in danger
North Carolina State has now fallen to my last team in the field.
Vanderbilt has arisen from the dead to at least contend in the nether regions
Rutgers is still an 8 seed along with Texas A&M, Illinois and now Maryland dropping down into that grouping
not having a major non conference win is an issue for a profile like theirs on the bubble...Wisconsin has Marquette and USC, Michigan at least has Pittsburgh
How is that even possible ? Notre Dame was 188 in the Net (now 180). How is that not at least a 15 slide even with it being a road game. Nebraska is 89 . ACC has 5 or more teams above 125.
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Legit do not understand why he's on Bracket Matrix
@bac2therac At the risk of just pissing myself off, what would our seed be if the OSU shot had been waived off
Call me crazy but I think I'd rather be the first 10 than an 8/9 having to play the 1 seed round 2.
First 10 is ranked 37 vs. last 7 who is 28?
If you can't get to. 7 seed I'm not sure if better (imsho)
First 10 is ranked 37 vs. last 7 who is 28?
If you can't get to. 7 seed I'm not sure if better (imsho)
