BID STEALERS--I am expecting 2. (Is analysis flawed?)

[Greene Rice FIG]

I will rank conferences by probability of bid stealer. I do not count a bid stealer a team that is currently on the radar as an at large team (examples Oklahoma or Virginia)

A10 (80%) Any non Davidson team that wins the tournament is in the field along with Davidson (probably, help BAC)

OVC (60%) Any non Murray State team that wins tournament is in the field along with Murray State (probably, help BAC)

ACC (15%) Syracuse, FSU, Clem, Louis, BC, Pitt Nc St, GT win ACC. Only Duke to beat. You can argue that one of these winning directly bumps ACC team as at large

P12 (15%) Wash St, Wash, ASU, Stan,Cal,Utah, Oreg State win P12. Maybe I am discounting Arizona winning and have 15% too high for one of these to win

AMER (15%) any team except Houston, SMU or MEM winning. Maybe a AMER team winning means SMU is out

SEC (6%) South Car, MS St, Vandy, Miss,Missouri, Georgia win. No SEC team would get thrown out as none are in and close to cut line

BE (5%) Stj, Depaul, Butler, Georgetown win. Maybe Xavier close to cut line if this were to happen and it would be a net zero, probably not (BAC?)

B12 (2%) talking only KSU or WVU
B10 (2%) MD, PSU,NW,MN,NEB

Doubtful bid stealer conferences (BAC?)
MVC Loyola
CUSA North Texas

All other conferences not impacted

If you sum up the %s the expected bid stealer amount is 2. If Davidson and Murray State are on the fence with a loss that number goes down hard.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

American bid-stealer could possibly mean both Memphis and SMU out. Their resumes really depend on the quality of those wins over Houston. An early loss for Houston would hurt both of those bubble teams.

 

[kcg88]

This looks right to me. I don't think Loyola can absorb another loss and stay in the field. Ditto Noth Texas but that's a closer call.

If an AAC rando wins then they're going to collect a win over Memphis or SMU on the way. If the #4 seed (Tulane) upsets Houston and then on the other side Memphis beats SMU, and then Tulane beats Memphis... I think that makes you re-evaluate the conference as a whole. Is Memphis' win over Houston or SMU still that great? In this scenario you might only get Houston and Tulane in. (Memphis beating Houston again on Sunday would complicate this)

Davidson is kinda the key team here. If they beat Dayton in Dayton tomorrow then they're tough to keep out no matter what happens. But if they lose that game and then lose in the A10 tournament then I dunno. Their only win over a current at-large worth team is Alabama. The A10 regular season champ has always been safe but the conference is on the weaker side this year and Davidson only has the one good OOC win. Then it might come down to "how far did Davidson get in the A10 tournament before losing?" If it's against the 8/9 winner, then uh oh. If they get to the title game, then they're probably fine.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

American bid-stealer could possibly mean both Memphis and SMU out. Their resumes really depend on the quality of those wins over Houston. An early loss for Houston would hurt both of those bubble teams.

YES......but Bac has them both out right now. I do agree. Espcially since there may be 2 pairs right now. Ind-Mich AND SMU-Memphis

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This looks right to me. I don't think Loyola can absorb another loss and stay in the field. Ditto Noth Texas but that's a closer call.

If an AAC rando wins then they're going to collect a win over Memphis or SMU on the way. If the #4 seed (Tulane) upsets Houston and then on the other side Memphis beats SMU, and then Tulane beats Memphis... I think that makes you re-evaluate the conference as a whole. Is Memphis' win over Houston or SMU still that great? In this scenario you might only get Houston and Tulane in. (Memphis beating Houston again on Sunday would complicate this)

Davidson is kinda the key team here. If they beat Dayton in Dayton tomorrow then they're tough to keep out no matter what happens. But if they lose that game and then lose in the A10 tournament then I dunno. Their only win over a current at-large worth team is Alabama. The A10 regular season champ has always been safe but the conference is on the weaker side this year and Davidson only has the one good OOC win. Then it might come down to "how far did Davidson get in the A10 tournament before losing?" If it's against the 8/9 winner, then uh oh. If they get to the title game, then they're probably fine.

A Davidson loss this weekend seems huge. I'd think my 20% odds of Davidson winning A10T is probably pretty close. Davidson isnt that good and there are a decent capable A10 teams.

 

[Knight Owl]

This looks right to me. I don't think Loyola can absorb another loss and stay in the field. Ditto Noth Texas but that's a closer call.

If an AAC rando wins then they're going to collect a win over Memphis or SMU on the way. If the #4 seed (Tulane) upsets Houston and then on the other side Memphis beats SMU, and then Tulane beats Memphis... I think that makes you re-evaluate the conference as a whole. Is Memphis' win over Houston or SMU still that great? In this scenario you might only get Houston and Tulane in. (Memphis beating Houston again on Sunday would complicate this)

Davidson is kinda the key team here. If they beat Dayton in Dayton tomorrow then they're tough to keep out no matter what happens. But if they lose that game and then lose in the A10 tournament then I dunno. Their only win over a current at-large worth team is Alabama. The A10 regular season champ has always been safe but the conference is on the weaker side this year and Davidson only has the one good OOC win. Then it might come down to "how far did Davidson get in the A10 tournament before losing?" If it's against the 8/9 winner, then uh oh. If they get to the title game, then they're probably fine.

Belmont is an interesting team in the OVC, second to a very solid Murray St team. I bet if they play a third time, Belmont will keep it much closer.

 

[kcg88]

Belmont is an interesting team in the OVC, second to a very solid Murray St team. I bet if they play a third time, Belmont will keep it much closer.

I'd love it if Morehead took Belmont out today.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Pomeroy’s Twitter gives his expected chances of each team winning each conference after the bracket comes out, which is useful in this exercise.

He’s got Murray St with a 65% chance of winning the OVC, so 60% for a bid steal sounds high…

 

[Knight Owl]

I'd love it if Morehead took Belmont out today.

Yeah, as far as bubble poppers go, Belmont is certainly a risk for a lot of P-5 teams.

 

[Knight Owl]

Pomeroy’s Twitter gives his expected chances of each team winning each conference after the bracket comes out, which is useful in this exercise.

He’s got Murray St with a 65% chance of winning the OVC, so 60% for a bid steal sounds high…

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That assumes Belmont learned nothing in getting smoked twice by Murray St.. Agree that Murray is a solid team likely to get an AL bid if it comes to that.

 

[bac2therac]

I will rank conferences by probability of bid stealer. I do not count a bid stealer a team that is currently on the radar as an at large team (examples Oklahoma or Virginia)

A10 (80%) Any non Davidson team that wins the tournament is in the field along with Davidson (probably, help BAC)

OVC (60%) Any non Murray State team that wins tournament is in the field along with Murray State (probably, help BAC)

ACC (15%) Syracuse, FSU, Clem, Louis, BC, Pitt Nc St, GT win ACC. Only Duke to beat. You can argue that one of these winning directly bumps ACC team as at large

P12 (15%) Wash St, Wash, ASU, Stan,Cal,Utah, Oreg State win P12. Maybe I am discounting Arizona winning and have 15% too high for one of these to win

AMER (15%) any team except Houston, SMU or MEM winning. Maybe a AMER team winning means SMU is out

SEC (6%) South Car, MS St, Vandy, Miss,Missouri, Georgia win. No SEC team would get thrown out as none are in and close to cut line

BE (5%) Stj, Depaul, Butler, Georgetown win. Maybe Xavier close to cut line if this were to happen and it would be a net zero, probably not (BAC?)

B12 (2%) talking only KSU or WVU
B10 (2%) MD, PSU,NW,MN,NEB

Doubtful bid stealer conferences (BAC?)
MVC Loyola
CUSA North Texas

All other conferences not impacted

If you sum up the %s the expected bid stealer amount is 2. If Davidson and Murray State are on the fence with a loss that number goes down hard.

Murray State is almost locked in, then Davidson next best. Also dont forget Gonzaga can get picked off in the WCC, Santa Clara is the 3 and San Fran is the 4.

A10 might end up a two bid league but maybe not. VCU makes the final they may dance.

The ACC is mess with 5 bubbles. Cuse will play Duke in the quarters if they get by the 8/9 game, once that happens anyone can win but its likely any bid stealer comes at the expense of another ACC bubble.

The only SEC schools out with a chance to make a run would be Florida and Texas A&M...highly highly unlikely a bid steal

Dont sleep on Colorado in the Pac 12, 4/5 seed beat Oregon and Arizona and beat UCLA in finals. they just beat AZ last week

Likely only 3 schools are capable of winnin the AAC and its likely a 2 bid league

dont worry about the BE unless you think St Johns can win, if so Xavier is out.

Big 12...never say never with Oklahoma and Kansas State capable

Big 10..you think Maryland can win, I dont

 

[bac2therac]

the A10 tourney is totally wide open...

 

[fatsam98]

Pomeroy’s Twitter gives his expected chances of each team winning each conference after the bracket comes out, which is useful in this exercise.

He’s got Murray St with a 65% chance of winning the OVC, so 60% for a bid steal sounds high…

View embedded media

This, it would be a big upset if Murray State doesn't win the OVC

 

[fatsam98]

Also on the flip side of this is the MVC. If Loyola wins then doesn't that open up an at large?

Same if they lose early.

 

[bac2therac]

Also on the flip side of this is the MVC. If Loyola wins then doesn't that open up an at large?

Same if they lose early.

most dont have them in right now but Joe does, almost impossible for them to get an at large

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Maryland is going to be the #10 seed unless Penn State wins and Maryland loses on Sunday.

First opponent - rematch vs Michigan State, or an outside chance of playing Michigan.
Second opponent - Illinois or Purdue
Third opponent: Illijnois/Purdue), or one of (Iowa/Rutgers/Ohio State)
Finals: Wisconsin or one of (Iowa/Rutgers/Ohio State/Michigan)

I don't see the Terps running that gauntlet.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Murray State is almost locked in, then Davidson next best. Also dont forget Gonzaga can get picked off in the WCC, Santa Clara is the 3 and San Fran is the 4.

A10 might end up a two bid league but maybe not. VCU makes the final they may dance.

The ACC is mess with 5 bubbles. Cuse will play Duke in the quarters if they get by the 8/9 game, once that happens anyone can win but its likely any bid stealer comes at the expense of another ACC bubble.

The only SEC schools out with a chance to make a run would be Florida and Texas A&M...highly highly unlikely a bid steal

Dont sleep on Colorado in the Pac 12, 4/5 seed beat Oregon and Arizona and beat UCLA in finals. they just beat AZ last week

Likely only 3 schools are capable of winnin the AAC and its likely a 2 bid league

dont worry about the BE unless you think St Johns can win, if so Xavier is out.

Big 12...never say never with Oklahoma and Kansas State capable

Big 10..you think Maryland can win, I dont

SO......
1. You think Murray State is a LOCK
2. If Davidson wins their last regular season they are just about a lock

1 and 2 a YES pus those 2 conferences as them biggest chances (by far) of bid stealing.

I assigned a 2% probability of B10 bottom 5 winning B1Gt. I thank that is accurate. Yes MD would probably be the most likely candidate there. They are still probably 75 to 1.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Also on the flip side of this is the MVC. If Loyola wins then doesn't that open up an at large?

Same if they lose early.

NO. BAC has them out

 

[Knight Owl]

NO. BAC has them out

Loyola has a win at DePaul. If you’re Rutgers, you don’t want the last bid to come down to you or Loyola…. Perhaps luckily for Rutgers, Loyola did lose by two to Michigan St in November.

 

[fatsam98]

NO. BAC has them out

Yup didn't realize they had fallen out

 

[bac2therac]

Loyola is actually the 4th seed in the MVC

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Maryland is going to be the #10 seed unless Penn State wins and Maryland loses on Sunday.

First opponent - rematch vs Michigan State, or an outside chance of playing Michigan.
Second opponent - Illinois or Purdue
Third opponent: Illijnois/Purdue), or one of (Iowa/Rutgers/Ohio State)
Finals: Wisconsin or one of (Iowa/Rutgers/Ohio State/Michigan)

I don't see the Terps running that gauntlet.

Every team they will probably play is safely in the tournament. If I am any of those teams (including Rutgers when they might play MD) my number 1 priority is the NCAA tournament. Obviously once players are on the floor they are playing their hardest trying to win. If I am a coach I am using my bench more than normal.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Loyola is actually the 4th seed in the MVC

4th seed out of MVC means not relevant in at large discussion. Should be as simple as that.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

SO......
1. You think Murray State is a LOCK
2. If Davidson wins their last regular season they are just about a lock

1 and 2 a YES pus those 2 conferences as them biggest chances (by far) of bid stealing.

I assigned a 2% probability of B10 bottom 5 winning B1Gt. I thank that is accurate. Yes MD would probably be the most likely candidate there. They are still probably 75 to 1.

2% seems kind of high for the prospect of a BIG bottom feeder winning the BIG tourney.
Flux probably can give you real sims using his model.

If you said the 10 seed has a 25% chance of winning each game the odds for them winning 4 straight would be 0.4%. If you kept the odds at 25% for the 4 teams playing an additional out bracket and have them all 50/50 odds in the first game, they’d each have 0.2% odds. So that would be 1.2%. I think I’m probably being generous with the 25% chance Per game.

 

[kcg88]

4th seed out of MVC means not relevant in at large discussion. Should be as simple as that.

It was a 3-way tie for second place, 1 GB of first, Loyola lost the tiebreakers.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

2% seems kind of high for the prospect of a BIG bottom feeder winning the BIG tourney.
Flux probably can give you real sims using his model.

If you said the 10 seed has a 25% chance of winning each game the odds for them winning 4 straight would be 0.4%. If you kept the odds at 25% for the 4 teams playing an additional out bracket and have them all 50/50 odds in the first game, they’d each have 0.2% odds. So that would be 1.2%. I think I’m probably being generous with the 25% chance Per game.

Bart has
MD at .6%
NW .3%
PSU .2%
MN .1%
NEB 0%

That would be 1.2%

The real place to look is Murray State and Davidson...that is where the bid stealers are likely to come from.

 

[bac2therac]

4th seed out of MVC means not relevant in at large discussion. Should be as simple as that.

5 conference losses in a mid major, RU has 8

 

[G- RUnit]

A10 traditionally has been a two bid league and sometimes a three bid league. I think VCU gets in. Not sure that’s a bid stealer. And I don’t want to hear that conference affiliation doesn’t matter.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I call VCU because BAC doesnt have them on the radar

 

[G- RUnit]

I call VCU because BAC doesnt have them on the radar

I think BAC’s wrong.

 

[bac2therac]

on my last 4 out line,,,is your mask fogging your glasses 🤣

 

[G- RUnit]

I think are in already. Don’t really think a bid stealer. A10 usually gets more than one bid. Although conference is not supposed to be a factor does any one really believe that? I think NCAA will also see that VCU played Baylor and UConn OCS. Those are two of their losses, one in OT. Chattanooga isn’t a bad loss either. Only bad loss is Wagner. Pretty nice season if they end with a win over St. Louis. Not sure they are truly a bid stealer. My guess is they are 65-35 already in.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

For some reason, the committee always seems to like VCU. They’ve gotten in a bunch of times when I didn’t think they would.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

on my last 4 out line,,,is your mask fogging your glasses 🤣

oops.....no need for me to mask for at least 4-6 months

I do hate mask fogging my glasses

 

[G- RUnit]

For some reason, the committee always seems to like VCU. They’ve gotten in a bunch of times when I didn’t think they would.

My thoughts exactly. They usually also throw in a west coast or western team for geographic balance too although that’s not considered a formal factor. You know they are wishing Oregon or Colorado would do anything to justify a bid. I think they will want to reward Wyoming and San Francisco. BYU seems a shoe in for a play in.

 

[bac2therac]

I think are in already. Don’t really think a bid stealer. A10 usually gets more than one bid. Although conference is not supposed to be a factor does any one really believe that? I think NCAA will also see that VCU played Baylor and UConn OCS. Those are two of their losses, one in OT. Chattanooga isn’t a bad loss either. Only bad loss is Wagner. Pretty nice season if they end with a win over St. Louis. Not sure they are truly a bid stealer. My guess is they are 65-35 already in.

where are the wins...yeah big whoop they beat Davidson, I think they got hammered by St Bonnies. They do not deserve to go.

 

[bac2therac]

the play in games are screaming either pitting david vs goliath or the bigs against each other or the midmajors against each other

UNC-Rutgers
San Fran-VCU

 

[bac2therac]

with 5 ACC bubbles, 4 in right now and one on the outside, its almost guaranteed that one will end up in the first 4.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think BAC’s wrong.

BAC is almost never wrong....you are probably wrong

 

[bac2therac]

BAC is almost never wrong....you are probably wrong

Im wrong alot...I picked us 20-11 regular season in the initial prediction, then said only 5-15 in league then switched it 9-11 in the start of year Big 10 prediction thread.