Well I was doing this for quite a while last year but honestly haven't had the time or energy this year. But we are coming down to the wire so let's get it going.
I am going to use what I think is a rather expansive definition of bubble team here, which will be any team with >20% and <80% chance of an at-large berth. By this definition Rutgers is a bubble team but we are at the top level of the bubble and it is not time to panic.
The bubble, in order (note I have 37 teams above this level so we are starting at about the 38th spot here.. meaning roughly 10 of these teams will make it depending on how the conference tourneys go)
A couple other notes:
- I'm including teams here even if they are projected for an auto-bid
- I'm adjusting for remaining schedule where ever I can. For example Indiana would be in today but their remaining schedule is unfavorable.
Bubble Through 2/21:
Rutgers
Drake
Connecticut
St. Bonaventure
Colorado St.
VCU (projected A10 auto)
Seton Hall
Stanford
Utah St.
Xavier
Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Duke
Louisville
Indiana
Syracuse
SMU
Games to watch 2/22:
Syracuse at Duke - one of these teams is going to move to the coin-flip line today and one is going to drop out completely. Either way I expect this list to be one name shorter come tomorrow. I would root for Cuse because we beat them
Evansville at Drake - a Drake loss here would put them right on the coin-flip line. Drake has roughly 90% to win
I am going to use what I think is a rather expansive definition of bubble team here, which will be any team with >20% and <80% chance of an at-large berth. By this definition Rutgers is a bubble team but we are at the top level of the bubble and it is not time to panic.
The bubble, in order (note I have 37 teams above this level so we are starting at about the 38th spot here.. meaning roughly 10 of these teams will make it depending on how the conference tourneys go)
A couple other notes:
- I'm including teams here even if they are projected for an auto-bid
- I'm adjusting for remaining schedule where ever I can. For example Indiana would be in today but their remaining schedule is unfavorable.
Bubble Through 2/21:
Rutgers
Drake
Connecticut
St. Bonaventure
Colorado St.
VCU (projected A10 auto)
Seton Hall
Stanford
Utah St.
Xavier
Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Duke
Louisville
Indiana
Syracuse
SMU
Games to watch 2/22:
Syracuse at Duke - one of these teams is going to move to the coin-flip line today and one is going to drop out completely. Either way I expect this list to be one name shorter come tomorrow. I would root for Cuse because we beat them
Evansville at Drake - a Drake loss here would put them right on the coin-flip line. Drake has roughly 90% to win