COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU848789]

Finally, some data are starting to trickle in on convalescent plasma from the blood of infected/recovered COVID patients. A study in Italy with 46 patients reported a decrease in mortality from 15% typically observed to 6% for those receiving the plasma, which is huge. Not a "cure" but potentially huge. Not a lot of medical details in the attached translated article (so it's choppy), but this could be the most promising news yet on plasma. The intend to publish their findings on Thursday.

We've now treated almost 9000 patients with plasma at various participating hospitals in a program being overseen by the Mayo Clinic - dying to see results, although there have been lots of great success stories in the media so far.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/milano/cronaca/coronavirus-cura-plasma-1.5144652

 

[LETSGORU91]

This virus is only the beginning of what is predicted... we have no clues... the so called experts don’t have a plan... the scientists saying 18 months for a vaccine are guessing... if the vaccine isn’t at least 70% effective then we still have a big problem... 60% won’t cut it... you’re the expert here....at what level does a vaccine need to be at ? or do you expect a combo of several vaccines?

Based on the effective rates of the yearly flu vaccines and if SARS-CoV-2 rates are remotely similar, may I be the first to say "Uh oh!".

 

[RUfubar]

So there's been a fair amount of talk here about the "EVMS" protocols posted by the physicians in Virginia. Their protocols focus on treating inflammation (with steroids and vitamin C) and hypercoagulation/blood clotting (with heparin or similar). Martenson was talking about another treatment protocol called MATH+ which is very similar. I'm providing links to it below. It also focuses on using steroids (methyl-pred in particular) and very high doses of IV vitamin C, along with heparin.

Wondering if any of the MDs here (@RUfubar for one) can talk about whether these types of treatments are being used in their hospitals and if so, whether they are seeing better results. The claim from some of the doctors using the MATH+ protocol is that if treatment is started as early as possible (when someone shows up in the ER, not when they get sent to the ICU) it significantly reduces the need for intubation and lowers the death rate.

https://covid19criticalcare.com/ (main page including a short video)

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Kory-2020-05-06-REVISED.pdf (description from one of the doctors involved)

As I've said before, I'm not an MD but all of this sounds very logical to me so I'm wondering if it's being used with success around the country.

Also, here's an interesting blog account of what it was like in the NYC ERs/ICUs during the surge phase of the epidemic:

https://emupdates.com/surge/

Yes this protocol is now pretty much standard except for we keep running out of vitamin c.
The thing is patients are presenting later so it's easy to make the decision to use the steroid and the switch was made to methylprednisolone from hydrocortisone a few weeks ago I believe. modest doses short periods of time. the decision or discussion or debate really centers around the use of steroids earlier during the viral replication phase because we all get scared about feeding the virus at that phase and raising the blood sugar. I'm now using lovenox even on outpatients if they're inflammatory markers are way up. and I wish I started doing this a lot earlier. heparin also has anti-inflammatory effects. anecdotally, I hate to admit it but I do think early on the zithromax and plaquenil help. it's all about timing. I had a feisty94-year-old lady who I remember we had plaquenil for some possible rheumatoid arthritis and she had stopped it as she does with all her other medicines but doesn't throw medications out . her daughter got sick a day just after her infusion for colitis. she ended up in the hospital but did okay luckily. The husband has severe oxygen dependency COPD and it was funny because the old lady and son-in-law were actuallyfighting over the leftover plaquenil as his wife was in the hospital. And with the zithromax and plaquenil started early the highest risk patient of all got like minimal symptoms from the infection. we did have to stick the elderly lady in the hospital a couple days but she did fine and she shouldn't have.
actually anecdotally I'm going back in or looking at some of the patients we saw in February who were negative for the flu and sick and some of them had likely covid. I'm calling them back and starting to do antibody test on them. a couple of them had pneumonia and it was different than we normally see and I remember I used levaquin on a few of them since they were so ill but did quite well.
it turns out that levaquin has effects on the interleukin 6 I believe. these days I try to stay away from the quinolones but they were quite ill.

 

[RUfubar]

Finally, some data are starting to trickle in on convalescent plasma from the blood of infected/recovered COVID patients. A study in Italy with 46 patients reported a decrease in mortality from 15% typically observed to 6% for those receiving the plasma, which is huge. Not a "cure" but potentially huge. Not a lot of medical details in the attached translated article (so it's choppy), but this could be the most promising news yet on plasma. The intend to publish their findings on Thursday.

We've now treated almost 9000 patients with plasma at various participating hospitals in a program being overseen by the Mayo Clinic - dying to see results, although there have been lots of great success stories in the media so far.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/milano/cronaca/coronavirus-cura-plasma-1.5144652

we had a guy and he's been on the vent for what seems like forever now and we recently gave him plasma and he got worse in my opinion with increasing inflammatory markers and all I can think about was that study you showed me in China about the hyper IGG patients and how we might be making certain subgroups worse.

 

[ArminRU]

Finally, some data are starting to trickle in on convalescent plasma from the blood of infected/recovered COVID patients. A study in Italy with 46 patients reported a decrease in mortality from 15% typically observed to 6% for those receiving the plasma, which is huge. Not a "cure" but potentially huge. Not a lot of medical details in the attached translated article (so it's choppy), but this could be the most promising news yet on plasma. The intend to publish their findings on Thursday.

We've now treated almost 9000 patients with plasma at various participating hospitals in a program being overseen by the Mayo Clinic - dying to see results, although there have been lots of great success stories in the media so far.

https://www.ilgiorno.it/milano/cronaca/coronavirus-cura-plasma-1.5144652

Are there any trials looking at people getting the antibody treatment before they get sick and how it works as more of a “vaccine”?

I saw Regeneron has trials starting next month.

I hope we can scale up antibody treatments for this fall by the millions.

 

[dvb91]

Concerning contact tracing, I wonder how this will be done without HIPAA & privacy issues. Currently work part-time at Amazon at one of their processing centers. We have been issued several alerts that some of our co-workers have contracted the virus and given a last date they worked. Granted, as an employer, they must abide by HIPAA and can't exactly divulge too much information, but you would hope they would at least provide shift information, not just last day in the facility. They supposedly will privately contact those that work closely with said employees, but wouldn't that give away the identity, thus violating some rules? I'm sure the government will be less constrained, but there could still be some issues.

We see all these data points, but unless there are articles written about a person, we tend to be in the dark as to who has it and whether you or someone close to you has been in contact. Maybe we see posts on social media of those contracting the virus but you never know how many degrees of separation you have between you & the afflicted.

 

[RU848789]

Are there any trials looking at people getting the antibody treatment before they get sick and how it works as more of a “vaccine”?

I saw Regeneron has trials starting next month.

I hope we can scale up antibody treatments for this fall by the millions.

Two placebo-controlled trials are starting this week at Johns Hopkins with plasma as a preventative in health care workers at high risk of infection (although maybe they should use prisoners or meatpacking plant employees) and in mildly symptomatic patients being treated at home. The article didn't say how long the trials will go on for and when we'll have results.

https://www.healio.com/infectious-d...ood-plasma-for-covid-19-treatment-prophylaxis

I know the ongoing plasma treatments in moderate to severely ill COVID patients have hit almost 9000 and the original emergency use authorization for this said these patients would be part of an "adaptive design" clinical trial, where I think they'll just be comparing outcomes vs. similar patients who didn't get plasma (without a prospective control), but there are also standard placebo (plasma without antibodies)-controlled, randomized double-blind studies going on now for these patients. Have had a hard time finding out when any of these will be revealed.

https://ccpp19.org/healthcare_providers/component_3/index.html

Regeneron is starting clinical trials in June on its engineered antibody cocktail and is, at risk, planning to have hundreds of thousands of doses available by the end of summer, if they get approval then and they expect their NY facility to be able to produce 1MM doses a month after that. They're also in discussions with other manufacturers to make more, should the approach work and approval be given.

While it would be great to have enough for everyone, certainly having 100,000+ doses is more than enough for people who are in the hospital, at least. I also think plasma could be easily scale for everyone in hospitals. Scaling to 330MM is a different story and may be left for vaccines, if we can treat all sick people and use antibody treatments for front line workers (millions, not 330MM).

https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/05/11/Regeneron-devotes-facility-to-COVID-treatment

 

[cohwx]

Yes this protocol is now pretty much standard except for we keep running out of vitamin c.
The thing is patients are presenting later so it's easy to make the decision to use the steroid and the switch was made to methylprednisolone from hydrocortisone a few weeks ago I believe. modest doses short periods of time. the decision or discussion or debate really centers around the use of steroids earlier during the viral replication phase because we all get scared about feeding the virus at that phase and raising the blood sugar. I'm now using lovenox even on outpatients if they're inflammatory markers are way up. and I wish I started doing this a lot earlier. heparin also has anti-inflammatory effects. anecdotally, I hate to admit it but I do think early on the zithromax and plaquenil help. it's all about timing. I had a feisty94-year-old lady who I remember we had plaquenil for some possible rheumatoid arthritis and she had stopped it as she does with all her other medicines but doesn't throw medications out . her daughter got sick a day just after her infusion for colitis. she ended up in the hospital but did okay luckily. The husband has severe oxygen dependency COPD and it was funny because the old lady and son-in-law were actuallyfighting over the leftover plaquenil as his wife was in the hospital. And with the zithromax and plaquenil started early the highest risk patient of all got like minimal symptoms from the infection. we did have to stick the elderly lady in the hospital a couple days but she did fine and she shouldn't have.
actually anecdotally I'm going back in or looking at some of the patients we saw in February who were negative for the flu and sick and some of them had likely covid. I'm calling them back and starting to do antibody test on them. a couple of them had pneumonia and it was different than we normally see and I remember I used levaquin on a few of them since they were so ill but did quite well.
it turns out that levaquin has effects on the interleukin 6 I believe. these days I try to stay away from the quinolones but they were quite ill.

Thanks for the update from the front lines. I imagine it's a difficult line to walk when it comes to timing of steroids. Sounds like the protocols are advocating other options (remdesivir, maybe HCQ) early on but most patients don't show up that early, right? At least during the surge phase everyone was told to stay home unless/until they got really sick. Is there any attempt being made now to treat people earlier? Perhaps through primary care offices? I know there isn't really any strong evidence from controlled trials concerning the use of HCQ early on but there is a lot of anecdotal stuff. Sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire.

I do think that based on what I know now, if I came down with covid I'd be willing to try a course of HCQ as early as possible. Would definitely ask my doctor about it.

 

[goru7]

Thanks for the update from the front lines. I imagine it's a difficult line to walk when it comes to timing of steroids. Sounds like the protocols are advocating other options (remdesivir, maybe HCQ) early on but most patients don't show up that early, right? At least during the surge phase everyone was told to stay home unless/until they got really sick. Is there any attempt being made now to treat people earlier? Perhaps through primary care offices? I know there isn't really any strong evidence from controlled trials concerning the use of HCQ early on but there is a lot of anecdotal stuff. Sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire.

I do think that based on what I know now, if I came down with covid I'd be willing to try a course of HCQ as early as possible. Would definitely ask my doctor about it.

While you are at it ask your doctor about Leronlimab, the monoclonal antibody presently fast tracked in trials.

 

[RU848789]

we had a guy and he's been on the vent for what seems like forever now and we recently gave him plasma and he got worse in my opinion with increasing inflammatory markers and all I can think about was that study you showed me in China about the hyper IGG patients and how we might be making certain subgroups worse.

Yep, doubtful it's a "cure" but if the results of reducing mortality by ~60% from Italy are confirmed in larger trials, that's still light years beyond what any other treatment is showing right now. Not sure if there will be anything that will be a cure for someone so sick as to be on a ventilator.

 

[RUBOB72]

You're right that we're probably in about the top of the 3rd inning on this one, with a long way to go. However, most of the experts I know of absolutely have a plan, which is essentially the South Korea plan, which is essentially the US Pandemic Playbook, i.e., massive testing/tracing/isolating, with mask-wearing and social distancing, while doing a phased reopening of most of the economy/society.

That can work to detect and stamp out flare-ups, while keeping new infections and deaths low, until there's a cure or vaccine. Nobody knows how long that will take, but it's the one area I'm optimistic on, given my career in pharma and seeing the incredible level of scientific publication and collaboration going on across the world.

Convalescent plasma results, anecdotally have been very good, but it would be nice to see something more formal shared - this has the potential to at least prevent a large % of deaths. And engineered antibodies (more potent/selective than CP) has the potential to be just about a cure (and a preventative for some) and we should see some of these available by the end of the summer (for at least those on the front lines). I also think we'll see a commercial vaccine by the end of the year, especially if we go the "human challenge" route and it's very likely a coronavirus vaccine would be far more effective than the ones for influenza and last longer (far less mutation in CV vs. flu). This is what I see, but none of it is a given.

Thank You very much for that response. In these times we need to be smart and at the same time perhaps a little more aggressive in treating the virus.

 

[RU-05]

Todays reported deaths for NJ were 77, which is up from 65 last Monday. So it will be interesting to see the #'s tomorrow, last Tuesday they reported 341. The Tuesday prior they reported 398.

191 deaths reported today. So a very big drop from previous tuesday reports.

 

[Akron Buck]

https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article242646006.html

plasma therapy, wonder how much this is being used

 

[Akron Buck]

https://www.targetedonc.com/view/leronlimab-shows-further-promise-for-covid-19-treatment-study-shows

Leronlimab shows more promise

 

[RU848789]

https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article242646006.html

plasma therapy, wonder how much this is being used

I've posted several plasma therapy updates in the last page or two...

 

[Akron Buck]

I've posted several plasma therapy updates in the last page or two...

but you were posting about plasma with anti bodies correct? the article I posted was about plasma without anti bodies that seemed to be helping

 

[Akron Buck]

The problem is these studies just take to long

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/11/whats-up-with-ivermectin

 

[ArminRU]

Things are starting to hit the fan for Illinois. They might be the new NY/NJ.

 

[RU-05]

Things are starting to hit the fan for Illinois. They might be the new NY/NJ.

4000 new cases. But they also tested a record # of people 29K I think, when they have only topped 20K once before(or something like that).

We are seeing bigger #'s in a bunch of states, but the increased testing does need to be considered when looking at the #'s.

 

[ArminRU]

4000 new cases. But they also tested a record # of people 29K I think, when they have only topped 20K once before(or something like that).

We are seeing bigger #'s in a bunch of states, but the increased testing does need to be considered when looking at the #'s.

That’s true.....hopefully the positive test result rates aren’t increasing and it’s just due to more testing.

 

[RU848789]

but you were posting about plasma with anti bodies correct? the article I posted was about plasma without anti bodies that seemed to be helping

Sorry, only skimmed your link and thought it was standard convalescent plasma - didn't realize it was therapeutic plasma exchange. A lot less has been done on this technology, but like CP it's old and has had some success in the past (and should be safe), so it's certainly worth trying more given some promising results. Based on the article below a combo of TPE and CP might be worth trying...

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/11/2006691117

 

[RU848789]

The problem is these studies just take to long

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/11/whats-up-with-ivermectin

Sent this to my Merck colleagues I worked on ivermectin with 30 years ago, but figured it wasn't worth posting here, as Derek Lowe has very low confidence in it. Ivermectin is a fantastic anti-parasitic for animals mostly (Heartgaard), at very, very low doses but it's doubtful it's that effective at low doses as an anti-viral - would be cool though (very difficult synthesis though).

 

[ArminRU]

Moderna’s vaccine flying through. Phase 3 starting as early as next month.

 

[knightfan2000]

Just want to post a thank you to RU848789 for your very informative and detailed posts which I look forward to every day. I am also in the pharma industry and am privvy to some insider information on what's happening with research and clinical testing. I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the timeline for a vaccine and I am impressed with the unprecedented level of research initiatives and funding.

For those who think it's time to "re-open" I would say it is simply too early. Another huge spike will set us back in ways that will make it difficult to recover from. Everyone hates where we are now but we need patience, resilience, and unselfishness to get us through the next 6-12 months. Our parents, grandparents and great grandparents suffered through incredibly challenging times, from the Spanish flu, WW1, the Great Depression, WW2, 1968, Viet nam, 9/11 and more - people pulled together to help each other and work for the greater good. I hope we can do the same

 

[RUhasarrived]

The virus has saved some people in NYC:It's been 58 days since a pedestrian was killed by a vehicle,the longest stretch since the Model-T.

 

[wisr01]

@wisr01 - Following your posts it really sounds like you believe HCQ to be a game changer if not a true cure but that big pharma is hiding it from the population for financial reasons. Is that a correct statement of your thoughts?

This treatment that has been talked about for many months, studied by many universities, hospitals and almost every developed country in the world. It is being studied by the best medical minds on earth. The race to find a cure/treatment/vaccine is probably the largest project ever in the history of the planet and spans corporations, religions, cultures, politlical dogmas, etc. How do you think such an easy treatment could be covered up by so many?

 

[AntiG]

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

 

[RUhasarrived]

A hopeful sign:Indiana has set a July 4th date to allow fan attendance at their race tracks.Racing without fans should begin there on June 14th.

 

[RU848789]

The latest (5/4) projections are out from the U of Washington/IHME and they're very bad, with the US deaths predicted to jump from the 72K in the 4/27 model to 134K through the end of July in the 5/4 model run. NY deaths are modeled to increase from 24K in the 4/27 model to 32K in the 5/4 model (more distancing modeled, hence the smaller increase vs. the US) and NJ deaths are modeled to increase from 7,2K in the 4/27 mode to 16K in the 5/4 model (not clear why NJ wasn't treated like NY).

They've completely overhauled the model and are now factoring in an increase in deaths due to expected significant increases in transmissions related to significant relaxation of stay at home policies and social distancing efforts, as well as slower than expected declines in deaths everywhere, once peaks are reached and passed. Haven't had time to go through it all, as there's a ton of new info, but did include the updated US/NY/NJ graphics. Will update this post with more later...

In addition, the Times obtained an internal CDC report from internal modeling, which is also predicting roughly a doubling of deaths from the current 68K (that would be 136K) by mid-summer, but the Administration is pushing back on that saying the report hasn't been fully vetted yet. However, President Trump on Sunday said deaths could reach 100K, so it certainly seems like forecasts are getting worse, even if not final yet. In that CDC report, it shows deaths per day increasing from the current ~2000/day to over 3000 per day by June.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html#link-32993cff
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...f7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

As I have been saying for the past week or so and which the Wharton model clearly confirmed on Friday, if restrictive policies are relaxed and social distancing lessened significantly, as looks to be happening, without an infrastructure to test massively and rapidly to detect outbreaks and to trace contacts and isolate positives and contacts, like South Korea and Taiwan have done (which we don't appear to be ready/willing to implement), deaths will get far worse than most have been projecting (including me). If one assumes a 60% infection endpoint (near herd immunity) and a very conservative 0.2% infection fatality rate (NY is at 0.7% now), then about ~400K US deaths would occur in the next 6-12 months if we open it all back up, but if we use an IFR of 0.5% (plausible), the estimate would be 1000K US deaths, which is pretty damn close to Wharton's 950K estimate in their model with limited controls/distancing.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-94#post-4539724

The only other hope we have to not hit the modeled numbers of deaths in the next 2 months is if we have a bona fide cure (or close to it) in place in the next month or so. We all better hope convalescent plasma is as good as the anecdotal reports are indicating, since that can help now, whereas even the engineered antibodies, which could be available by late summer, will be too late to prevent many of these deaths, and a vaccine is at least several more months beyond late summer.

The latest (5/12) projections are out from the U of Washington/IHME and they've gotten a bit worse with the US deaths predicted to jump from the 134K in the 5/4 model to 147K through the end of July in the 5/12 model run. Recall that the model had been bouncing around in the 60-85K range for weeks prior to the 5/4 model run, which was the first one incorporating significant opening up of many states with reduced controls and social distancing expected. The 13K increase in this model run reflects even worse performance due to even less adherence to social distancing (and mask wearing) expected.

NY deaths are modeled to increase slightly from 32K in the 5/4 model to 34K in the 5/12 model (was just 24K in the 4/27 model) and NJ deaths dropped a bit from 16K in the 5/4 model to 14.6K in the 5/12 model (vs. 7,2K in the 4/27 model). Most of the increased deaths are in states projected to have more deaths due to opening up before having controlled their outbreaks.

As mentioned in the previous post, they completely overhauled the model and are now factoring in an increase in deaths due to expected significant increases in transmissions related to significant relaxation of stay at home policies and social distancing efforts, as well as slower than expected declines in deaths everywhere, once peaks are reached and passed. Sadly, we're simply not following the pandemic playbook we ignored the first time around (and had in our back pockets, while South Korea, Taiwan and others followed it perfectly), of aggressive testing, tracing, and isolating to stamp out inevitable flare-ups, along with mask-wearing and social distancing to prevent/limit them further, while opening things up in controlled phases. We'd likely have a few thousand deaths if we had, instead of 82K and growing.

Keep in mind, these are just deaths through the end of July. Over the next 18 months or so, assuming no cure/vaccine and assuming little interventions being practiced, the Wharton model predicts 950K deaths, The JHU model predicts at least 500K deaths and my simple calcs show that if NY's deaths are translated to the rest of the country (NY has the most complete data of anywhere in the world, with a known infection fatality rate in the 0.7% range vs. statewide antibody testing) it would result in 1.3MM deaths if 60% of 330MM in the US became infected.

Of course, it's possible many more are truly infected and we're missing that data and/or it's possible that "effective" herd immunity could be much less than the 50-80% postulated by most experts (some other epidemiologists have said maybe only 20-40% will achieve herd immunity), meaning many fewer would die (but still 250K+). I also think we'll have close to a cure (antibodies) in the next few months and a vaccine by the end of the year, but that may also be wrong, so hard to count on it.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

 

[cohwx]

Some really simple math...we are at 84k deaths now. There are 11 weeks until the end of July, so we'd only require about 800 deaths per day (that's 16 per state on average) to get to 147k. Considering we're averaging over 1000/day right now and many states are relaxing restrictions, it's hard to see the death rate falling significantly.

What could help...if people keep social distancing and wear masks, if there is a "summer lull" in virus transmission, if especially vulnerable populations are protected, if evolving treatment protocols reduce death rates.

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Martenson has been an interesting watch since the beginning, being one of the first to say this would likely become a full blown pandemic and getting many other things right, but he also has his blind spots, such as his bias for HCQ (he only ever discusses studies that make it look good) and his giving credence to the rumor mongering about the virus being created or released from a lab.

I prefer to go with Fauci, as per the excerpted interview below, and the best evolutionary virologists in the world who mostly say that this evolved naturally, as as per the post I made on this awhile back, linked below, and nothing has changed since then on this that matters that I know of.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...he-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-61#post-4496710

One topic in the news lately has been the origins of SAR-CoV-2. Do you believe or is there evidence that the virus was made in the lab in China or accidentally released from a lab in China?

If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats, and what's out there now is very, very strongly leaning toward this [virus] could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated—the way the mutations have naturally evolved. A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that it evolved in nature and then jumped species.

Sure, but what if scientists found the virus outside the lab, brought it back, and then it escaped?

But that means it was in the wild to begin with. That's why I don't get what they're talking about [and] why I don't spend a lot of time going in on this circular argument.

It's impossible to "prove" that the virus couldn't have come from a lab (hard to disprove a negative), but Trump/Pompeo and others ought to have more evidence than internet sources, especially when the top infectious disease expert in the US and US intelligence have dismissed the idea - frankly it's embarrassing.

Also, given the threat of future pandemics from other coronaviruses that likely could originate from bats in China (~7MM people in SE Asia eat bats) and/or intermediate hosts, like pangolins, it's disappointing that we're axing funding of EcoHealth, which had been working with the Wuhan Lab on investigating potential future virus threats. China has been a very bad actor in many ways with its lack of transparency and lies about the outbreak, but we have future threats that are possibly even worse and could very easily come from China - I'd much rather remain engaged in those efforts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...d0d642-8f3c-11ea-8df0-ee33c3f5b0d6_story.html

 

[RU848789]

Some really simple math...we are at 84k deaths now. There are 11 weeks until the end of July, so we'd only require about 800 deaths per day (that's 16 per state on average) to get to 147k. Considering we're averaging over 1000/day right now and many states are relaxing restrictions, it's hard to see the death rate falling significantly.

What could help...if people keep social distancing and wear masks, if there is a "summer lull" in virus transmission, if especially vulnerable populations are protected, if evolving treatment protocols reduce death rates.

Yep, easy to see even at reduced deaths per day vs. a week or two ago and I doubt we're going to do enough social distancing/mask-wearing in many states.

 

[RU848789]

US announces "Warp Speed" a plan to have 300MM doses of a commercially available vaccine (or multiple vaccines) by the end of the year. I love the enthusiasm, financial/scientific support, and audacity of it all, but am troubled by the US first approach, given that this is a worldwide pandemic that needs a global solution IMO, the potential to shortchange safety, and the decision to not collaborate at all with the Chinese, especially if they end up being first with a vaccine.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ouse-s-america-first-push-coronavirus-vaccine

Warp Speed has already narrowed its list of vaccine candidates to 14 and plans to push ahead with eight, the official says. “The idea for us is to pick a diversified portfolio” of vaccines made with different technologies, or platforms. Organizers were concerned that other government vaccine investment has been “heavily weighted” toward just two candidates: one made with messenger RNA encoding the coronavirus surface “spike” protein and the other using a cold-causing adenovirus to deliver the same protein’s gene. Neither technology, the official notes, has yet led to approved vaccines for any disease.

The official declined to identify Warp Speed’s vaccine candidates, but he stressed two key criteria: safety and the potential to make hundreds of millions of doses quickly. “We don’t have time to debug manufacturing issues here,” he says. By July, Warp Speed hopes to have its eight lead candidates in human trials. At the same time, it will fund a large-scale comparison of their safety and efficacy in hamsters and monkeys to help winnow down that group. “If something’s really bad, we’ll get rid of it,” he says.

In parallel with the trials, the project will lay the groundwork for “heavy duty manufacturing” of as many as four different vaccines. More than one may prove worthy, and multiple options guard against contamination incidents and other supply concerns.

 

[rutgersguy1]

4000 new cases. But they also tested a record # of people 29K I think, when they have only topped 20K once before(or something like that).

We are seeing bigger #'s in a bunch of states, but the increased testing does need to be considered when looking at the #'s.

Usually I think hospitalizations are the measure to get a better real time picture of what might be happening. New cases can be related to increased testing like you say so it might not be the most accurate picture at the moment. I haven't paid attention to those stats but this morning on the news they did say hospitalizations in the middle america are still going up. Also that if you take out the NY area the numbers are still going up around the country.

 

[brad1218]

What happened to the vaccine that Oxford had already tested in Monkeys? That one seemed promising and moving along. Is that not a part of what we are doing? Why would t we be working together?

 

[wisr01]

Martenson has been an interesting watch since the beginning, being one of the first to say this would likely become a full blown pandemic and getting many other things right, but he also has his blind spots, such as his bias for HCQ (he only ever discusses studies that make it look good) and his giving credence to the rumor mongering about the virus being created or released from a lab.

I prefer to go with Fauci, as per the excerpted interview below, and the best evolutionary virologists in the world who mostly say that this evolved naturally, as as per the post I made on this awhile back, linked below, and nothing has changed since then on this that matters that I know of.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...he-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-61#post-4496710

One topic in the news lately has been the origins of SAR-CoV-2. Do you believe or is there evidence that the virus was made in the lab in China or accidentally released from a lab in China?

If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats, and what's out there now is very, very strongly leaning toward this [virus] could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated—the way the mutations have naturally evolved. A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that it evolved in nature and then jumped species.

Sure, but what if scientists found the virus outside the lab, brought it back, and then it escaped?

But that means it was in the wild to begin with. That's why I don't get what they're talking about [and] why I don't spend a lot of time going in on this circular argument.

It's impossible to "prove" that the virus couldn't have come from a lab (hard to disprove a negative), but Trump/Pompeo and others ought to have more evidence than internet sources, especially when the top infectious disease expert in the US and US intelligence have dismissed the idea - frankly it's embarrassing.

Also, given the threat of future pandemics from other coronaviruses that likely could originate from bats in China (~7MM people in SE Asia eat bats) and/or intermediate hosts, like pangolins, it's disappointing that we're axing funding of EcoHealth, which had been working with the Wuhan Lab on investigating potential future virus threats. China has been a very bad actor in many ways with its lack of transparency and lies about the outbreak, but we have future threats that are possibly even worse and could very easily come from China - I'd much rather remain engaged in those efforts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...d0d642-8f3c-11ea-8df0-ee33c3f5b0d6_story.html

Did you watch the video? From your response it does not seem like it. I have read the explanations the "experts" have given and they are laughable. Watch the video, preferably with an open mind. The same US scientist (Baric) who collabs with Wuhan Lab is also the author of No See'm technology and has published Coronavirus GOF research through chimeric virus creation. In fact his work 2014 is what caused GOF research to be stopped here in the US. Again, watch the video.

FYI, I came to the same conclusion as CM weeks before he did. I posted a thread on the CE board a month ago laying several of the pieces out. Wuhan Lab is the most elegant and also most likely explanation. The whole Wuhan Lab blackout from Oct 7-24 seems to fit this puzzle nicely.

 

[ArminRU]

What happened to the vaccine that Oxford had already tested in Monkeys? That one seemed promising and moving along. Is that not a part of what we are doing? Why would t we be working together?

That one is moving along quickly too. The 3 furthest along are Chinese’s CanSino, UK Oxford, and US Moderna. There are 8 too ones that the WHO tracks here https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

Thing that worries me is that Trump isn’t really involved in the Global effort, so if China and UK come out first, we might be screwed.

 

[RUhasarrived]

According to their website,Minnesota is going to allow fans to attend the Running Aces harness track this Saturday Night.This should be a good test to check peoples' fear vs their need to get out and around-if the Governor goes through with this decision.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

According to their website,Minnesota is going to allow fans to attend the Running Aces harness track this Saturday Night.This should be a good test to check peoples' fear vs their need to get out and around-if the Governor goes through with this decision.

Must also be a casino, too?

 

[RU-05]

Usually I think hospitalizations are the measure to get a better real time picture of what might be happening. New cases can be related to increased testing like you say so it might not be the most accurate picture at the moment. I haven't paid attention to those stats but this morning on the news they did say hospitalizations in the middle america are still going up. Also that if you take out the NY area the numbers are still going up around the country.

Ya, fully agree. I've been using Worldometer just because they have very up to date stats, along with up to date graphs showing trends for all countries and a few states. So it is helpful, but yeah you have to read through some noise.

Another reason I use it is because I know it, while I don't know a site that has comparable stats for hospitalizations. If anyone has a link to a site that has that stat it would be much appreciated.