COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RUevolution36]

PPE vending machines at the Las Vegas airport....sign of the times.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/mccarran-airport-las-vegas-ppe-vending-machines/index.html

soon they'll have them as prizes in slot machines...you can win an N95 mask, a surgical mask, goggles, gloves, or...nothing.

 

[ArminRU]

Can’t remember if already posted, but good trial results for an antiviral

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86413

 

[RUevolution36]

i know the current focus is on hospitalizations and deaths, but it seems like there are a lot of potentially long-lasting detrimental effects on recovered patients. anectodotally, my cousin has been out of the hospital for weeks and he's still finding it hard to walk a mile at a slow pace. so, while herd immunity sounds great, there may be a much longer term, more expensive impact to patient health, and thus, the nation if we just let the virus run it's course.

 

[RU2055]

Article on Sweden's approach to Covid
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/in-the-race-for-immunity-sweden-leads-the-pack/

At end of article Sweden claims that there are no known cases of reinfection in Sweden.

I know at least 8 people who were "re-infected". One of them died.

 

[ArminRU]

I know at least 8 people who were "re-infected". One of them died.

Fake news

 

[RU848789]

Article on Sweden's approach to Covid
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/in-the-race-for-immunity-sweden-leads-the-pack/

At end of article Sweden claims that there are no known cases of reinfection in Sweden.

That article is filled with misinformation, especially the claim at the end that Sweden would likely reach herd immunity within a month. That's simply a fantasy, given that the only data on prevalence from a few weeks ago is that Stockholm had ~11% infected, based on blood donor antibody testing. And the reports that 1/3 had been infected were retracted, as per the article below.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidn...ontroversial-coronavirus-report/#2cf14ff74349

Realistically, given that Stockholm is much more densely populated than the rest of Sweden, it's likely that the overall infection rate is around 2-4%, so they have a long, long way to go to reach herd immunity (50-80% depending on the true transmission rate, which is still somewhat uncertain). Also, with regard to cases and deaths per capita, Sweden is doing horribly worse than its similarly situated neighbors (who have similar overall density), as per my post from a few weeks ago, below, and it's even gotten worse since then with Sweden now having 7-9X the per capita death rates as Norway and Finland. And at 361 deaths/1MM, they're not far behind the worst cases of Italy-Spain-UK-France, which have in the 420-580 range.

The Sweden Experiment with Limited Social Distancing...

It's certainly not "over" yet, but they're doing far worse than their similarly situated, similarly low population density Nordic neighbors, Norway and Finland, especially in deaths, which is what really matters; these neighbors are also doing much more testing per capita (and tracing) and practicing much more aggressive social distancing. Cases per 1MM are less different, likely because of far less testing. I threw Denmark, Iceland and Germany in, too, even though their densities are a bit different. And Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which are just a bit above Sweden in density are also doing much better than Sweden, with all of them below 40 deaths/1MM.

Sure Sweden is doing better than some of the much more densely populated countries, but on a density basis they're pretty much a very bad outlier. Ireland, though has about 3X the density as Sweden and has similar deaths/1MM and Spain at 4-5X the density of Sweden has 2X the death rate per 1MM as Sweden. Germany is an outlier in the other direction with 10X the density of Sweden (and is more dense than all the major EU countries other than the UK), but has a death rate of only 79/1MM - they've been the model country with regard to early/aggressive testing, tracing/isolating and social distancing (along with Denmark).

Country......Cases/1MM.......Deaths/1MM........Tests/1MM.....Density (per sq mi)
Sweden..........2088......................256.....................11K.....................56
Finland.............902.......................38.......................17K....................43
Norway............1427......................39.......................31K....................41
Iceland............5266......................29......................141K.....................8
Denmark.........1580......................78.......................33K...................345
Germany.........1945......................79.......................30K...................576

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

...and What It Might Mean for Sweden and the US (and more)

Some from Sweden also recently said they thought they'd be at "herd immunity" in several weeks. My guess is that's a pipe dream. Sweden has 1800 positive viral cases per 1MM, which is 0.18%, while NY has 15K cases per 1MM, which is 1.5% viral cases and NY's antibody sampling shows 15% actually with antibodies right now (were infected) or about 10X the level of cases. If Sweden had a similar ratio, they'd have 1.8% of their population with antibodies (10X 0.18%), which is almost nothing compared to herd immunity estimates of 54% if the transmission rate, R0, is 2.2 (as thought awhile back) or 82% if R0 is 5.7 (as more are thinking now).

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22...immunity-in-weeks.html?recirc=taboolainternal

However, they're saying Stockholm has 11% with antibodies, although Stockholm is far more densely populated than the rest of the country, as the country, overall has 64 people per sq mi, (near last in Europe) vs. Stockholm's 13,000 per sq mi (200X more densely populated) - so maybe it's possible for both to be true, ie.., 11% antibodies in Stockholm (which has 22% of Sweden's population) and 1.8% of Sweden with antibodies, overall (11/1.8 = 6 and 100/22 = 4.5).

So, if Sweden, right now is only at 1.8% of the population infected with antibodies, they have a very long way to go to reach herd immunity, which looks to be 20-30X their current infection%, meaning that's theoretically 20-30X more hospitalized/dead than they have now, assuming no interventions or great treatments/cures before then. That's a worst case, as infections would slow down as an area nears herd immunity, plus very low density locations might simply not sustain infections through the population - which could also be true for swaths of middle America, although those hotspots in meatpacking plants and small town flare-ups should be scaring the crap out of Middle America, but they don't seem to be.

Same is possible in the US if we're not smart about how we reopen and are not ready to stamp out flareups as they occur (with aggressive testing/tracing/isolating). We might be at ~3% of the US that have been infected, I'd guess, just roughly based on comparison to NY's data, where 15% have antibodies and 1.5% have tested positive for the virus (10X ratio), so that the US with 0.3% tested positive for the virus (1MM of 330MM) would then be 3.0% with antibodies (10X).

So, if the US, right now is only at 3% of the population infected with antibodies, we also have a very long way to go to reach herd immunity, which looks to be 15-25X their current infection%, meaning that's theoretically 15-25X more hospitalized/dead than we have now, assuming no interventions or great treatments/cures before then. Infections should slow down quite a bit once above 30-40% infected (less targets and less infected), so I doubt we're talking truly 15-25X more hospitalized dead, but I think 10-15X more is definitely a risk. That's 10-15X the 60K deaths we've seen - over whatever time it would take to reach herd immunity if we're not practicing any interventions (probably 6+ months).

We better hope we get a spring/summer lull, like we do with the flu to give us more time to develop treatments/cures/vaccines by fall and to improve our infrastructure for massive testing/tracing and isolating, just in case the next wave is strong. If there's no seasonal lull, we're likely in for a very bad time in this country if we reopen too aggressively and without a good testing/tracing infrastructure in place. Our other hope is that maybe, somehow, our antibody tests are off and many more have been infected than we know (or are somehow immune) - but hope isn't a strategy.

 

[RU848789]

I know at least 8 people who were "re-infected". One of them died.

There have been no documented cases of "reinfection" that I know of. The ones that were reported in South Korea were found to be due to false positive PCR testing in patients from viral fragments, not active infections. If you know of documented cases of reinfection that would be huge news.

 

[RU848789]

#s. Do viruses typically become less problematic as they mutate?

Think @wisr01 and @rutgersguy1 answered your question - so far mutations have been slow and unimportant so far for CV2...

 

[RU2055]

There have been no documented cases of "reinfection" that I know of. The ones that were reported in South Korea were found to be due to false positive PCR testing in patients from viral fragments, not active infections. If you know of documented cases of reinfection that would be huge news.

What you want specific names? I just told you, uncle has tested twice for it. Friend who died got infected and tested positive, got better, fever went away, even talked about donating plasma, then got infected again and died.

 

[chickenpatty2]

I very much apologize if this has been posted. It was shared by, of all people (although she's a scientist), Lin-Manuel Miranda's wife, Vanessa Nadal. You can go to her Twitter feed to see any comments on it. @VAMNit

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

And a 2nd one she posted that gets to things at the molecular level.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7

 

[RU2055]

Fake news

Yeah people dying is fake news. Tell that to the family members.

 

[RU848789]

#'s you harp on testing/tracing/isolating, but is anyone even actually tracing in the US? Just wondering who is doing it and what kind of manpower & brain power is being tasked for this. Is someone like the CDC contacting people who have been in contact with exposed people or are we relying on word of mouth?

The NE US states are all hiring armies of tracers, since they're taking a regional approach, as previously announced. Mike Bloomberg is leading (and funding) the effort in NY and I assume the approach is being shared with those other states (NY, NJ, DE, PA, CT, RI, MA); I know NJ is also hiring a bunch of tracers too. The CDC has published guidance on how to do tracing, but the Federal Government's approach, so far, has been to leave work like this to the states.

http://longisland.news12.com/story/...berg-detail-new-yorks-contact-tracing-efforts

https://www.phillyvoice.com/coronavirus-new-jersey-covid-19-contact-tracing-testing-phil-murphy/

 

[RU848789]

What you want specific names? I just told you, uncle has tested twice for it. Friend who died got infected and tested positive, got better, fever went away, even talked about donating plasma, then got infected again and died.

I don't want anything, but if this is true and can be documented, it's huge news and would need to be shared with the medical community. As in South Korea and other similar examples like this, it's also possible there are testing issues involved.

 

[ArminRU]

Yeah people dying is fake news. Tell that to the family members.

https://bradleyfuneralhomes.com/winston-serna/

Being reinfected is fake news. If you really do have information confirming people being reinfected, I suggest you contact the appropriate people because the entire world is waiting for that information.

 

[RU2055]

I don't want anything, but if this is true and can be documented, it's huge news and would need to be shared with the medical community. As in South Korea and other similar examples like this, it's also possible there are testing issues involved.

All I know is that there is a lot we don't know about this virus. Anecdotal data of people getting sick, getting better and then getting sick again are plenty. Just talk to any doctor or nurse on the front lines. Now could it be that they simply had a relapse? Dunno. But is a two month gap considered a relapse?

This is why I asked the question to the experts in my previous post regarding the cold virus.

 

[rutgersguy1]

What you want specific names? I just told you, uncle has tested twice for it. Friend who died got infected and tested positive, got better, fever went away, even talked about donating plasma, then got infected again and died.

Most for now think it’s a problem with the test vs such quick reinfection or reactivation. They think the amount could be fragments or that went down low enough to not be detected symptoms go away but then had a resurgence and cause issues again. It can linger in the digestive tract/fecal matter longer up to a month or so even when swabs from the respiratory tract are coming back negative.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-are-some-people-testing-positive-for-covid-19-again

 

[RU848789]

Most for now think it’s a problem with the test vs such quick reinfection or reactivation. They think the amount could be fragments or that went down low enough to not be detected symptoms go away but then had a resurgence and cause issues again. It can linger in the digestive tract/fecal matter longer up to a month or so even when swabs from the respiratory tract are coming back negative.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-are-some-people-testing-positive-for-covid-19-again

Same was confirmed in Krammer's paper evaluating antibodies in plasma donors, where viral fragments remained in recovered patients for up to 28 days (but they don't think these were active viruses). Discussed at length in the post below...

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-97#post-4543546

 

[RU23]

Same was confirmed in Krammer's paper evaluating antibodies in plasma donors, where viral fragments remained in recovered patients for up to 28 days (but they don't think these were active viruses). Discussed at length in the post below...

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-97#post-4543546

Per worldometers, the Diamond Princess still has 48 active cases plus another 4 still in serious/critical condition. Bad data?

 

[RU2055]

Most for now think it’s a problem with the test vs such quick reinfection or reactivation. They think the amount could be fragments or that went down low enough to not be detected symptoms go away but then had a resurgence and cause issues again. It can linger in the digestive tract/fecal matter longer up to a month or so even when swabs from the respiratory tract are coming back negative.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-are-some-people-testing-positive-for-covid-19-again

I agree. That's why I am wondering if it is possible for the virus to linger in our system but then reactivates when our immune system weakens. I am not sure it's a black and white scenario of you either do or don't have it. But more like having it but our t-cells, NK cells, et al keeping it in check. This constant battle going on between our immune system and the virus is in play, just like the cold virus, which is a relative of cov2. In essence, testing results depends on who's winning.

 

[RU2055]

I don't want anything, but if this is true and can be documented, it's huge news and would need to be shared with the medical community. As in South Korea and other similar examples like this, it's also possible there are testing issues involved.

Most of the documented problems with testing is for false negatives. Testing positive twice doesn't jive with that. Also, people who get better aren't exactly being tested to confirm negative. So, kinda hard to look for that positive, negative, positive documented proof you are looking for. However, people who got sick, got better, then got sick again are plenty - with considerable time lapse in between. Again talk to front line nurses and doctors (I have, and actually constantly do) and they'll confirm this "anecdotal" information.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Dividers between equipment in Hong Kong...assume you'll see that in gyms here too. Still seem kinda close even with the dividers.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/photo-how-hong-kong-gym-reopened-with-safety-measures.html

 

[mikeru]

What you want specific names? I just told you, uncle has tested twice for it. Friend who died got infected and tested positive, got better, fever went away, even talked about donating plasma, then got infected again and died.

None of what you said proves reinfection.

 

[RU2055]

None of what you said proves reinfection.

Define reinfection. So someone who got sick, got better and then gets sick again isn't reinfection? Relapse then? But how long - the longest that I am aware of is 2 months in between.

 

[Wolv RU]

And yet none of the hospitalization numbers are available on the Florida dashboard that your link is identifying as "Best data source". Which begs the question of where they're getting the numbers.

Also, for everyone celebrating Florida's great accomplishment, I took the liberty of ingesting their day-to-day inpatient census numbers from your link and produced this graph, which frankly fails to suggest that they're #winning.

Looking at it, I am not sure where their current hospital count is coming from, but that seems to be what one would need, and especially compared with capacity, to see how they are doing. Even more important would be to have information on where those hospitalizations are occurring. There are some areas of Florida where there are more strict measures in effect than in others.

Based on your graph, it looks to me like the hospitalization numbers for the state overall (i.e., new daily hospitalizations) have been steady; they aren't increasing or decreasing in general. If their system has sufficient capacity to sustain that, then there seems to be a valid argument that they can at least wait and see how the present circumstances play out.

 

[brad1218]

Define reinfection. So someone who got sick, got better and then gets sick again isn't reinfection? Relapse then? But how long - the longest that I am aware of is 2 months in between.

Just stop. What you are saying is ridiculous. As RU numbers said if what you are saying happened you would be on channel 7 news tonight and that information would literally change the world. So please don’t post it in an RU board. Call someone.

 

[RU2055]

Just stop. What you are saying is ridiculous. As RU numbers said if what you are saying happened you would be on channel 7 news tonight and that information would literally change the world. So please don’t post it in an RU board. Call someone.

Ridiculous? I was the first person here who mentioned remdesivir, moderna's mrna vaccine and I vallidated guru7's post regarding leronlimab, and now it's getting press and traction.

You think I'm just making up crap regarding people got sick a second time? F U MAN.

 

[mikeru]

Ridiculous? I was the first person here who mentioned remdesivir, moderna's mrna vaccine and I vallidated guru7's post regarding leronlimab, and now it's getting press and traction.

You think I'm just making up crap regarding people got sick a second time? F U MAN.

Your theory could very well be correct (a lot we don't know about the virus), but what PROOF do you have that these people were reinfected? Saying someone got sick, felt better, got sick again with no context doesn't prove reinfection.

 

[brad1218]

Ridiculous? I was the first person here who mentioned remdesivir, moderna's mrna vaccine and I vallidated guru7's post regarding leronlimab, and now it's getting press and traction.

You think I'm just making up crap regarding people got sick a second time? F U MAN.

I 100% do. I was kidding about going to the news. If what you are suggesting actually happened the doctors that treat the people you mentioned would have already reported it and it would be headline news. I not saying bad things didn’t happen to the people you know. What I am saying is they did not have the virus, been cleared of it and then got it again. That did not happen.

 

[e5fdny]

Google/Yahoo!/Jeeves drs are the best.

 

[RU848789]

Ridiculous? I was the first person here who mentioned remdesivir, moderna's mrna vaccine and I vallidated guru7's post regarding leronlimab, and now it's getting press and traction.

You think I'm just making up crap regarding people got sick a second time? F U MAN.

Yes, you've added a lot of value to this thread. I think Brad (and myself and others) is just worrying about people getting the wrong idea and while I believe you are relaying what you've heard, I have serious doubts that your sources know the details well enough to say there is actual reinfection going on, where the virus truly disappeared and antibodies were present and then the virus was confirmed to reinfect someone.

The South Korea and other cases where they thought it was reinfection were simply lab artifacts due to false positives from the viral PCR test not being able to distinguish inactive nucleic acid fragments from the previous viral infection from actual live viruses (post linked below on this). This was similar to the observation I posted earlier from the Krammer paper.

It is quite possible that the virus can remain an active infection for over a month, which is more likely the case here and there could've been a false negative test somewhere in there too, as that can also be an issue with the PCR test as we've heard a lot more about, especially for people early in their infections, when viral titers can be below the detection limit of the usual PCR test - which was revealed to be a major problem with the fast Abbott tests the other day. Reinfection is theoretically possible in rare cases for those who don't develop enough antibodies, but it hasn't been documented yet.

Bottom line is the PCR test simply isn't very good. We need far better viral tests, probably antigen tests, that can be done instantly in very high sensitivity (so no false negatives) - only with such tests will we ever likely have large crowds for public events again (at least until we have a vaccine or a great cure), as instant testing (or at least day of testing) could at least ensure nobody with an active infection is attending.

Interesting report from South Korea - looks like the reports of viral reinfection were simply artifacts of testing as expected (very few virologists thought reinfection would be possible). However, it would be nice to see their data or a paper on this...

SEOUL, April 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korean health experts said Wednesday that recovered coronavirus patients may have tested positive again due to traces of virus fragments that have been inactivated.

As of Tuesday, a total of 277 people who recovered from COVID-19 have retested positive here, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).

The country's central clinical committee for emerging disease control said there was no live virus present in such cases, positively refuting theories like the virus being reactivated or reinfection.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200429007051320

 

[wisr01]

I would recommend reading the entire thread chain as it includes this:

 

[Upstream]

View embedded media

I would recommend reading the entire thread chain as it includes this:

View embedded media

Looking forward to the results. Note that May 6 was last patient in, not last patient out, so it could be another week or so before all patients complete the study.

In edit, it looks like they've already submitted a manuscript.

 

[RU848789]

@RU2055 - story on the "prolonged tail" of suffering/symptoms many have had. Sounds horrible and it's not rare. Another reason why people who dismiss this saying, most people recover quickly, are simply not being accurate.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...fH4Y-yFHibRo7LX1PFTeqLjcdVPkPmChkdqorETk9z7bc

 

[Scarlet4Shore]

i know the current focus is on hospitalizations and deaths, but it seems like there are a lot of potentially long-lasting detrimental effects on recovered patients. anectodotally, my cousin has been out of the hospital for weeks and he's still finding it hard to walk a mile at a slow pace. so, while herd immunity sounds great, there may be a much longer term, more expensive impact to patient health, and thus, the nation if we just let the virus run it's course.

I'm currently not working due to low patient volume as an outpatient physical therapist, but in speaking with my coworker earlier this week, we are starting to see in the outpatient setting, a few previously COVID+ people who have been discharged from either short term inpatient rehab or an acute care hospital for rehab for extreme deconditioning. We have to do a lot of documentation with vitals, more than the traditional pulmonary rehab/general deconditioning clients.

 

[wisr01]

Looking forward to the results. Note that May 6 was last patient in, not last patient out, so it could be another week or so before all patients complete the study.

In edit, it looks like they've already submitted a manuscript.

Yes both are true. The study is 14 days so the May 6th entrants will be followed until the 20th. They had enough data to write the report on the 6th and it was submitted on the 9th for review.

 

[RU#1fan]

Fake news

‘Moron.
Like many other clueless punks on this board.

 

[ArminRU]

‘Moron.
Like many other clueless punks on this board.

I’ll wait for an actual study that proves otherwise.

 

[wisr01]

@wisr01 - Following your posts it really sounds like you believe HCQ to be a game changer if not a true cure but that big pharma is hiding it from the population for financial reasons. Is that a correct statement of your thoughts?

This treatment that has been talked about for many months, studied by many universities, hospitals and almost every developed country in the world. It is being studied by the best medical minds on earth. The race to find a cure/treatment/vaccine is probably the largest project ever in the history of the planet and spans corporations, religions, cultures, politlical dogmas, etc. How do you think such an easy treatment could be covered up by so many?

Never said it was anything other than untested, especially in early treatment. However I leave you this...



Twitter is now blocking this website

https://www.covid-19research.ca/home

That is the site for a HCQ early treatment study in Canada affiliated with Boulware. Blocking a clinical trial home page for enrollment using HCQ? I find it disgusting. I guess a HCQ clinical trial for early use does not align with the narrative.

This section is for those who cannot comprehend simple language.

Try tweeting https://www.covid-19research.ca/home

You get this message and cannot link that site in a tweet.

Thank God for the ignore feature.

 

[formerlyknownasrutgers100]

Never said it was anything other than untested. However I leave you this...

View embedded media

Twitter is now blocking this website

https://www.covid-19research.ca/home

That is the site for a HCQ early treatment study in Canada affiliated with Boulware. Blocking a clinical trial home page for enrollment using HCQ? I find it disgusting. I guess a HCQ clinical trial for early use does not align with the narrative.

how can twitter block a website lol???

 

[bac2therac]

Yes