COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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RU848789

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What was the phrase? "Don't let the perfect get in the way of the great?". 99.8% will live. The curve was flattened, you can see for yourself. Enjoy summer in your bubble.
Wrong. The infection fatality rate is about 0.7-0.8%, based on NY data, which is the only statewide date we have and that translates to roughly 1MM deaths and several million serious infections, eventually, if 60% become infected in the US (if no cure/vaccine). Is that what you really want?
 

T2Kplus10

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Wrong. The infection fatality rate is about 0.7-0.8%, based on NY data, which is the only statewide date we have and that translates to roughly 1MM deaths and several million serious infections, eventually, if 60% become infected in the US (if no cure/vaccine). Is that what you really want?
At the end of the day it will be much closer to ~0.2%. Highest infection rates are currently in LTC, which have the most at risk patients and thus have a higher fatality rate than the norm.

Also, death #'s are starting to be independently reviewed. CO just revised down their death totals. Look for more states to do the same as consistent guidelines are implemented.
 

bac2therac

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have we discussed the Hong Kong flu here for comparison?

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[14] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969-70.[15] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older.

The disease was allowed to spread through the population without restrictions on economic activity, until a vaccine became available four months after it started.[8]
 

LC-88

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Apr 24, 2010
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The great thing about opening up is that people can choose for themselves what they want to engage in. If you still want to stay at home, fine. If you want to go to a restaurant, fine. Etc. It's all up to you.
#freedom
I'm 55, diabetic, high bp and had quintuple bypass surgery. I'm at high risk for this virus. I agree with you. It's my problem to stay alive. Can't destroy the world and domestic economies for us high risk people. Everyone except the ultra rich are in deep $hit if this shutdown keeps going. More people will end up starving to death, than would ever die from covid. Wait and see how much "stimulus money" gets doled out AFTER the November elections. I know ill get flamed by some for my stance, but so be it.
 

RUBOB72

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...and kill an extra 500,000-1,000,000 Americans over the next 12-24 months, assuming no cure/vaccine...
Now assuming no cure or vaccine ... sounds
I'm 55, diabetic, high bp and had quintuple bypass surgery. I'm at high risk for this virus. I agree with you. It's my problem to stay alive. Can't destroy the world and domestic economies for us high risk people. Everyone except the ultra rich are in deep $hit if this shutdown keeps going. More people will end up starving to death, than would ever die from covid. Wait and see how much "stimulus money" gets doled out AFTER the November elections. I know ill get flamed by some for my stance, but so be it.
Keep Chopping LC 88 you will make it . I agree after the election in November many things will disappear especially “ stimulus money” and they will make a push to dismantle many governmental programs aimed at the poor.
 

T2Kplus10

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I'm 55, diabetic, high bp and had quintuple bypass surgery. I'm at high risk for this virus. I agree with you. It's my problem to stay alive. Can't destroy the world and domestic economies for us high risk people. Everyone except the ultra rich are in deep $hit if this shutdown keeps going. More people will end up starving to death, than would ever die from covid. Wait and see how much "stimulus money" gets doled out AFTER the November elections. I know ill get flamed by some for my stance, but so be it.
+1
Common sense POV. You can always keep yourself safe as you see fit.
 

formerlyknownasrutgers100

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Dec 8, 2009
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have we discussed the Hong Kong flu here for comparison?

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[14] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969-70.[15] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older.

The disease was allowed to spread through the population without restrictions on economic activity, until a vaccine became available four months after it started.[8]
killed 100,000 in 1.5 years in the USA, without any lockdowns. Corona killed at least 89,000 in the USA in 3 months with lockdowns. What is to compare?
 

formerlyknownasrutgers100

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Dec 8, 2009
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Now assuming no cure or vaccine ... sounds

Keep Chopping LC 88 you will make it . I agree after the election in November many things will disappear especially “ stimulus money” and they will make a push to dismantle many governmental programs aimed at the poor.
yup thats what the republicans would do if they win because they don't care about people. luckily biden will win though and he cares as do the dems. So we good.
 

RU848789

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At the end of the day it will be much closer to ~0.2%. Highest infection rates are currently in LTC, which have the most at risk patients and thus have a higher fatality rate than the norm.

Also, death #'s are starting to be independently reviewed. CO just revised down their death totals. Look for more states to do the same as consistent guidelines are implemented.
I provide crystal clear data and you provide nothing. Let's see your source for 0.2% IFR. I'm sure the wait will be quite long.
 

RU848789

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Some good news on the immune response front, from a paper published by folks from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology mostly. It shows that in mildly infected and then recovered COVID patients, robust levels of CD8+ and CD4+ T cells (a subtype of white blood cells called lymphocytes made in the thymus) were found - these are indicative of an "adaptive" immune response to viral antigens, which is really important for immunity and for making effective vaccines.

They also observed "cross-reactivity" where some people not exposed to the virus had SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ cells (likely from exposure to other human coronaviruses, like the common cold), which could mean that some level of coronavirus immunity exists in a fraction of the human population - this would be very important if it can be confirmed, but it will take some time to figure that out. The excerpt below is from the actual paper and the second excerpt is from the long blog entry by Derek Lowe explaining the significance of this paper.

SUMMARY: Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide ‘megapools’, circulating SARS-CoV-2−specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ~70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+ T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike and N proteins each accounted for 11-27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARSCoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674(20)30610-3


Below is an excerpt from Derek Lowe's blog - it's essentially the take home message. The blog post is quite lengthy and includes a really good primer on immunology and adaptive immune responses to viral infections, especially from the cellular side of the immune system (as opposed to the antibody side). He and others think the findings in this paper are very encouraging signs for the development of an effective vaccine, since it's becoming pretty clear many humans can fight the virus off effectively, by adapting their immune systems to the virus, which is exactly what is needed from a vaccine - it just primes the body to get the immune system ready to fight off the virus. Still a long way to go, but encourging. It's also worth noting that there are still no signs of antibody-dependent enhancement from these patients, which is very good. He also discussed the cross-reactivity observation in some detail.

So overall, this paper makes the prospects for a vaccine look good: there is indeed a robust response by the adaptive immune system, to several coronavirus proteins. And vaccine developers will want to think about adding in some of the other antigens mentioned in this paper, in addition to the Spike antigens that have been the focus thus far. It seems fair to say, though, that the first wave of vaccines will likely be Spike-o-centric, and later vaccines might have these other antigens included in the mix. But it also seems that Spike-protein-targeted vaccines should be pretty effective, so that’s good. The other good news is that this team looked for the signs of an antibody-dependent-enhancement response, which would be bad news, and did not find evidence of it in the recovering patients (I didn’t go into these details, but wanted to mention that finding, which is quite reassuring). And it also looks like the prospects for (reasonably) lasting immunity after infection (or after vaccination) are good. This, from what I can see, is just the sort of response that you’d want to see for that to be the case. Clinical data will be the real decider on that, but there’s no reason so far to think that a person won’t have such immunity if they fit this profile.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...-the-human-immune-response-to-the-coronavirus
 

RU4Real

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At the end of the day it will be much closer to ~0.2%. Highest infection rates are currently in LTC, which have the most at risk patients and thus have a higher fatality rate than the norm.
These two sentences have absolutely nothing to do with each other.
 

RUtrumpet92

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Feb 5, 2003
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These two sentences have absolutely nothing to do with each other.
They can be related. I think he is assuming the percentage of patients in the most vulnerable population is higher now that it will be when all is said and done. If those most likely to die from the disease are the first to catch it, then it stands to reason that the percentage of patients who die from it would decrease as the demographics of future patients changes. I'm not saying I agree that will happen, or that the true IFR would stabilize at 0.2%, but I think that is what he meant.
 

RU4Real

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They can be related. I think he is assuming the percentage of patients in the most vulnerable population is higher now that it will be when all is said and done. If those most likely to die from the disease are the first to catch it, then it stands to reason that the percentage of patients who die from it would decrease as the demographics of future patients changes. I'm not saying I agree that will happen, or that the true IFR would stabilize at 0.2%, but I think that is what he meant.
You give him too much credit, he never knows what he means. Any resemblance to coherence is completely accidental.
 

T2Kplus10

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They can be related. I think he is assuming the percentage of patients in the most vulnerable population is higher now that it will be when all is said and done. If those most likely to die from the disease are the first to catch it, then it stands to reason that the percentage of patients who die from it would decrease as the demographics of future patients changes. I'm not saying I agree that will happen, or that the true IFR would stabilize at 0.2%, but I think that is what he meant.
Yup. I would think this is a simple concept to grasp. Biased sample so far, regression to the mean is coming.
:ThumbsUp
 

mdMoose

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So your argument is that the mortality rate will decrease once the virus runs through 70m of our elders and removes them from the remaining susceptible population (either because they have already died or have recovered).

Wouldn’t there be new cohorts of olds taking their place as time goes on?
 

LETSGORU91

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Jan 29, 2017
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There is no doubt in my mind that I've suffered some kind of lung damage or perhaps developed some blockage. Almost a month and a half since testing positive, suffering, and now "recovered", I still can't go up a one floor stair without feeling extreme shortness of breath with my chest feeling like it's burning. Any extreme physical activity is a no no. This isn't how a fairly fit 46 year old should be. Thankfully, xray, ekg and stress test said lung and heart were ok. But doc has scheduled me for echocardiogram - he's also considering doing a nuclear stress test.
You are on the right path. Keep working every day to improve. Do your breathing exercises and get as much physical activity as you can safely handle. Increase your activity levels as tolerated and get your rest. You should be on aspirin at the bare minimum if not a stronger blood thinner, assuming you dont have any bleeding disorders. Get well soon.

I’m a 42 year old fit 90lb. Female this hit me hard in April, I’m still feeling it.
See above and keep working at it to get better. What you are experiencing is not uncommon in those severely affected by this virus.

What was the phrase? "Don't let the perfect get in the way of the great?". 99.8% will live. The curve was flattened, you can see for yourself. Enjoy summer in your bubble.
I like the phrase...the rest of your response is questionable. Hopefully you aren't implying the flattened curve means life goes back to normal right now. That type of behavior will lead to a jump in cases, a surge in hospitalizations, and more/new restrictions. If someone wants to be in a bubble for their own or family's protection, so be it. It's a smart and prudent decision which may even help balance the knuckleheads who could put us back into quarantine.

That's not good news and hopefully only a one day spike for their sake. Georgia and Florida will be interesting to watch in the next couple of weeks as well.

have we discussed the Hong Kong flu here for comparison?

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[14] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969-70.[15] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older.

The disease was allowed to spread through the population without restrictions on economic activity, until a vaccine became available four months after it started.[8]
As noted below, the veracity of CV-19 has inflicted its damage and is approaching 100k deaths in 2.5 months...with quarantine/social distancing. Using a simple ratio and assuming about a 20 month time span for the Hong Kong flu, you would need about 800,000 total deaths to equate it to CV-19. And that's with no social restrictions.

killed 100,000 in 1.5 years in the USA, without any lockdowns. Corona killed at least 89,000 in the USA in 3 months with lockdowns. What is to compare?
Bingo!
 

T2Kplus10

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You are on the right path. Keep working every day to improve. Do your breathing exercises and get as much physical activity as you can safely handle. Increase your activity levels as tolerated and get your rest. You should be on aspirin at the bare minimum if not a stronger blood thinner, assuming you dont have any bleeding disorders. Get well soon.



See above and keep working at it to get better. What you are experiencing is not uncommon in those severely affected by this virus.



I like the phrase...the rest of your response is questionable. Hopefully you aren't implying the flattened curve means life goes back to normal right now. That type of behavior will lead to a jump in cases, a surge in hospitalizations, and more/new restrictions. If someone wants to be in a bubble for their own or family's protection, so be it. It's a smart and prudent decision which may even help balance the knuckleheads who could put us back into quarantine.



That's not good news and hopefully only a one day spike for their sake. Georgia and Florida will be interesting to watch in the next couple of weeks as well.



As noted below, the veracity of CV-19 has inflicted its damage and is approaching 100k deaths in 2.5 months...with quarantine/social distancing. Using a simple ratio and assuming about a 20 month time span for the Hong Kong flu, you would need about 800,000 total deaths to equate it to CV-19. And that's with no social restrictions.



Bingo!
Good thread going on about the Hong Kong flu pandemic:
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/1968-69-hong-kong-flu.196679/

As per one of the posts:
The 100,000 that died in 1968 would be equivalent to 285,000 people today when you factor in population 199 million vs 327 million and people over 65. 19.9 million (10%) vs 52 million (16%). The number would be much higher if you take into account obesity rate, 15% vs 40%.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/
 

RU-05

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Good thread going on about the Hong Kong flu pandemic:
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/1968-69-hong-kong-flu.196679/

As per one of the posts:
The 100,000 that died in 1968 would be equivalent to 285,000 people today when you factor in population 199 million vs 327 million and people over 65. 19.9 million (10%) vs 52 million (16%). The number would be much higher if you take into account obesity rate, 15% vs 40%.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/why-life-went-on-as-normal-during-the-killer-pandemic-of-1969/
Now you just need to figure out a cockamamie way to equate 18 months in 1968 to 2 months in 2020, and you'll have us all convinced.
 

T2Kplus10

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Now you just need to figure out a cockamamie way to equate 18 months in 1968 to 2 months in 2020, and you'll have us all convinced.
Convinced about what? I don't believe I made any conclusions or statements. Just posted some interesting facts about a topic being discussed by another poster.
 
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RUfubar

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Certain township employees are being offered antibody testing without proper counseling and explanation; proper concurrent viral testing is imperative - in my opinion- as well for the sake of the individual and their families. I have echoed this to officials and my concern about them offering/sending people to get antibody testing without ruling out active viral shedding. It is potentially dangerous - I don't know how to put it any other way. And the same goes for major labs who are offering direct to consumer antibody testing based upon the patient's own words that they have no symptoms. And you already know that you can be asymptomatic and have a viral load.

Using seroprevalence (antibody positivity) for population studies and potential return to work activity is one thing, but people are also individuals with different levels of risk and family structures. I just saw case yesterday where a prison guard thought he/she was in good shape (despite widespread outbreak in the facility and unfortunately delayed facility testing) since he/she had an antibody test that was positive "done somewhere" and he/she has been having what he/she thought was allergy symptoms. Guess what. Not allergy but Covid positive when tested for virus.
 

RU-05

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Just heard on TV that Harvard and MIT scientists are saying 77 degrees is a bit of a magic # over which the virus has a hard time of spreading.

So of course here in the northeast we have high's in the 60's for the rest of the week.
 

RU-05

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This does not explain why Brazil is the world's fastest growing hot spot.
True. Doesn't sound like "Magic" is a fitting term.

I think crowded conditions outweigh much of these other factors that limit the spread.
 

RU4Real

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True. Doesn't sound like "Magic" is a fitting term.

I think crowded conditions outweigh much of these other factors that limit the spread.
I posted this on April 4th, when I saw that dense populations was the viruses playground, Brazil was the first place that popped in my head that was going to be in big trouble:

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/vaccine-might-be-on-the-way.193945/#post-4489694
Yes, we know how those Brazilians are. :)
 
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