COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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rutgersguy1

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Numbers posted this site 2 months ago or so and looking at the initial data he was using it seems that he was using the wrong metrics. Has this site been code reviewed, tested and proven since then? I have an issue with people hacking up some code, buying a domain name and then people pointing to it as it's authoritative. .
Didn’t see that only saw it today.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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Interesting point brought up by Arizona health expert on CNBC. Asked about capacity in AZ’s hospitals to meet coronavirus needs, he noted: there should be enough beds in the hospital system to meet the coronavirus surge, but by giving those resources to help coronavirus victims survive, you’re exhausting resources needed to save other critical care cases.

This may explain why we’ve seen more total deaths (all cause deaths) than expected (expectation = average deaths in a normal year + Covid deaths) in areas hit hard by COVID.
 
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RUhasarrived

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The Serf just put the kibosh on indoor dining.I guess that Arthur's in Hoboken is off for Thurdsay.The right sugar wasn't put in the coffee over the weekend,one would surmise.

The number in hospitals and on ventilators are at a season low.Some esoteric measure called the transmission rate was up.Deaths continue to plummet.
 
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King of S

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The Serf just put the kibosh on indoor dining.I guess that Arthur's in Hoboken is off for Thurdsay.The right sugar wasn't put in the coffee over the weekend,one would surmise.

The number in hospitals and on ventilators are at a season low.Some esoteric measure called the transmission rate was up.Deaths continue to plummet.
Governor is pushing his luck on this one. All numbers way, way down and he does this to restaurant owners??
 
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Barnaby&Neill

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The Serf just put the kibosh on indoor dining.I guess that Arthur's in Hoboken is off for Thurdsay.The right sugar wasn't put in the coffee over the weekend,one would surmise.

The number in hospitals and on ventilators are at a season low.Some esoteric measure called the transmission rate was up.Deaths continue to plummet.
I don’t live in Hoboken and can’t speak to whether or not this was the right decision, but transmission rate is probably the most important metric that exists when trying to forecast future cases. It is essentially your “return on asset” assumption when planning your retirement savings.
 

RUJohnny

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COVID update in NJ:
156 new cases yesterday (lowest since the start)
978 hospitalized (lowest since the start)
1.92% of tests were returned positive (good)
R-naught .86 (good but not as good as when we started the phase 2 reopen)
18 lives lost (good, realtively)

early week reporting caveats apply, but we are under 1k in the hospitals statewide and that's from our peak over 8k, and that's amazing.
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Nancy Messonnier from Health and Human Services gave a press conference outlining exactly what was coming to the US in late-Feb. The markets got spooked, Trump was furious. She was sidelined from public view for her candor, and nearly fired.

Up to a point, leaders need to manage fear. It would have been wildly unproductive if we sheltered for Ebola in 2014, or if every American quit flying after 9/11. Only up to a point. I think Trump and team were still trying to fight that perception battle past the point of when they should have switched gears to fighting the virus (instead of managing fear).

That’s not to say local leaders are blameless or couldn’t have pushed back harder, but in a crisis of this magnitude, we expect leadership to come from the top.
Credit Messonnier, but at the same time Fauci was telling us that we didn't need to change our behavior in the face of the chicomvirus. And that's been my main argument...there does not seem to have been any consensus among federal health officials and scientists about the situation in Jan-Mar. Remember the WHO only declared it a global pandemic on March 11. And @RU848789 kinda let the cat out of the bag that the US historically never "followed" the WHO lead. So then why would we trust their test in Jan-Feb when the danger sadly was not clear to some of the best and most experienced health professionals in the world let alone the U.S.?

I am all-in for criticizing the CDC team with the testing debacle in Jan and heads should roll. However to further ###'s analogy to firing a coach when the team fails....I'm not firing Tom Landry because Jackie Smith dropped a wide-open TD pass in the endzone in the SB only to replace him with Chris Ash.
 
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Barnaby&Neill

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i Credit Messonnier, but at the same time Fauci was telling us that we didn't need to change our behavior in the face of the chicomvirus. And that's been my main argument...there does not seem to have been any consensus among federal health officials and scientists about the situation in Jan-Mar. Remember the WHO only declared it a global pandemic on March 11. And @RU848789 kinda let the cat out of the bag that the US historically never "followed" the WHO lead. So then why would we trust their test in Jan-Feb when the danger sadly was not clear to some of the best and most experienced health professionals in the world let alone the U.S.?

I am all-in for criticizing the CDC team with the testing debacle in Jan and heads should roll. However to further ###'s analogy to firing a coach when the team fails....I'm not firing Tom Landry because Jackie Smith dropped a wide-open TD pass in the endzone in the SB only to replace him with Chris Ash.
I think in the appropriate sports analogy, the coach chucked the scouting report in the garbage, called a few flea flickers, lost interest in the game, and went into the clubhouse to watch a different sport on tv.

The assistant coaches are calling the game now.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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Nope, but you'll sure get a like from ####'s!
I’m not trying to be a jerk — I just don’t see evidence of the coaching here.

He didn’t like what he read in the scouting report (a pandemic that was going to crush the economy) — at best he ignored it until no longer possible to do so; possibly suppressed discussion of it (see earlier Messonnier comments).

He briefly got on board with a revised playbook (shut downs), but made no secret that he wasn’t in love with the idea, and by the end was pretty much actively undermining shutdowns.

Now he distances himself from the topic altogether, and basically plays the role of “I’ve moved on to more important things,” because he and his staff realized talking about it publicly is not a winner for him. And we get Pence & Co.
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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I’m not trying to be a jerk — I just don’t see evidence of the coaching here.

He didn’t like what he read in the scouting report (a pandemic that was going to crush the economy) — at best he ignored it until no longer possible to do so; possibly suppressed discussion of it (see earlier Messonnier comments).

He briefly got on board with a revised playbook (shut downs), but made no secret that he wasn’t in love with the idea, and by the end was pretty much actively undermining shutdowns.

Now he distances himself from the topic altogether, and basically plays the role of “I’ve moved on to more important things,” because he and his staff realized talking about it publicly is not a winner for him. And we get Pence & Co.
OK I'll play a little longer...there were many "playbooks" for a comeback after Jackie Smith dropped a wide freakin' open TD pass that Staubach put right in his breadbasket. You can't ask for a do-over, so you need a new gameplan to make a comeback. Even #####'s has been fairly positive on Pence and the Task Force since mid-March. Well at least not as furious since the CDC dropped the pass that cost us the Super Bowl.
 
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RU848789

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Let’s see numver guy spin in two weeks after NYC blows up. Speaking of NY, why do the my have the majority of deaths?
NYC will not be blowing up in 2 weeks - why would you even think that? I think there may be a very minor rise with reopening and, unfortunately, stupid people not wearing masks, but that's it. Care to wager? NYC cases per day have consistently been below 500 for a couple of weeks. I'll bet you $100 to be donated to the R fund by the loser that NYC rates don't average (7-day moving average) over 1000 cases per day in the next month. Over 1000 vs. <500 would be "blowing up" to me.
 

RU848789

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Really curious to see where the death rates go from here. Hoping they continue to decline in spite of the increase in cases happening. That would indicate that some combination of improving therapies/treatments, weakening virus, or herd (or pre-existing) immunity.
As per the other day, yes death rates are down in the US, which is great. Unfortunately, with case and hospitalization rates increasing considerably in many states, it's almost inevitable that death rates will also increase in those states after a 2-4 week lag, like they have everywhere else in the world (most recently in places like India, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, where deaths lagged cases, as usual), indicating that the virus is very unlikely to be weakening as a few scientists have proposed, with little proof.

Most of the states seeing case increases have seen them starting in mid-June and accelerating since then, especially in the last week, so we might start to see death rates increase a bit this week and probably more next week. Although I expect the death rate increase to not be as large, proportionally, as what we saw in the NE US, since medical procedures have improved, as well as treatment options (remdesivir, tocilizumab, dexamethasone and plasma), plus more of the case increases appear to be in younger people, who have lower death rates. Would be fantastic to see deaths increase less than they have in the past.

Don't have time to copy/paste a bunch of graphics right now, but it only takes seconds to see the cases/day and deaths per day (per date or on 3/7 day moving averages) for the US or most states by clicking on the US/state and scrolling down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
 

RU848789

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OK I'll play a little longer...there were many "playbooks" for a comeback after Jackie Smith dropped a wide freakin' open TD pass that Staubach put right in his breadbasket. You can't ask for a do-over, so you need a new gameplan to make a comeback. Even #####'s has been fairly positive on Pence and the Task Force since mid-March. Well at least not as furious since the CDC dropped the pass that cost us the Super Bowl.
Well, to be fair, I've been very negative on the Administration's performance throughout the pandemic, but have generally not posted those thoughts in this thread since maybe April (apart from the HCQ mess), out of a desire to keep the thread open and not on the CE board. But I have been crystal clear on what I think needs to be done in dozens of posts for months: testing aggressively to find out where the virus is being transmitted, tracing, and isolating to snuff out flare-ups before then become outbreaks and distancing/masking in public and at work and even in private as needed (we have friends over, but people wear masks or keep >10 feet apart) to prevent new infections. Based on studies over the past 1-2 months, I'm convinced that distancing/universal masking, combined, is enough to have near zero cases/deaths, but thsoe other capabilities are needed because there are always stupid people, even in East Asia, leading to flare-ups. There's no reason, other than lack of leadership and alignment, why we can't have case/death rates as low as South Korea's or Japan's without lockdowns. No reason.
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Well, to be fair, I've been very negative on the Administration's performance throughout the pandemic, but have generally not posted those thoughts in this thread since maybe April (apart from the HCQ mess), out of a desire to keep the thread open and not on the CE board. But I have been crystal clear on what I think needs to be done in dozens of posts for months: testing aggressively to find out where the virus is being transmitted, tracing, and isolating to snuff out flare-ups before then become outbreaks and distancing/masking in public and at work and even in private as needed (we have friends over, but people wear masks or keep >10 feet apart) to prevent new infections. Based on studies over the past 1-2 months, I'm convinced that distancing/universal masking, combined, is enough to have near zero cases/deaths, but thsoe other capabilities are needed because there are always stupid people, even in East Asia, leading to flare-ups. There's no reason, other than lack of leadership and alignment, why we can't have case/death rates as low as South Korea's or Japan's without lockdowns. No reason.
I stopped reading after you said "to be fair" lol. Have a good night.:WideSmile:
 

Caliknight

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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Why? I didn’t even mention politics. If I get banned, then Numbers should again too for responding, as wrong as he was. Even NYT is sounding alarm bells. And yes, there is an obvious correlation with Covid.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/nyregion/nyc-shootings-surge.amp.html
True:
"In New York, the police have linked the rise in gun violence to a bail law enacted this year, which limited judges’ ability to keep people in jail before trial if they had been arrested on certain charges, as well as the release of thousands of people from jail and prison to help curb coronavirus. Chief LiPetri said 17 percent of shootings involved people on probation or parole. "
 

jreinsdorf

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Are lean proteins chicken and fish? Nuts? yogurt? beans? What else?

Is there any red meat protein that is considered lean?

Thanks again!
Chicken, turkey and fish are leanest and the fish will provide you with healthy omega 3 fats but you can keep saturated fat to a minimum with lean cuts of beef like sirloin, strip and ground beef 93% and up. Think of nuts as a fat. Healthiest and best flavors are almonds, walnuts then pistachios and cashews.
 
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Proud NJ Sports Fan

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too many dudes...I'd be at another bar in my prime...hopefully with that brunette cutie in the strapless tube shirt we see blowing off the short guy near the front
In a normal year, I hear ya, I'd down one and move on to the next bar.

But it's slim pickins for bars with any tail this summer.

It's basically a washout

My buds are hosting a party this weekend in Belmar, we usually get at least 50% gals at these things, I'm really thinking about going.

I'm craving the booze, tunes and broads
 

ArminRU

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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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In a normal year, I hear ya, I'd down one and move on to the next bar.

But it's slim pickins for bars with any tail this summer.

It's basically a washout

My buds are hosting a party this weekend in Belmar, we usually get at least 50% gals at these things, I'm really thinking about going.

I'm craving the booze, tunes and broads
Oh yeah, shore house parties were where the real action was in my glory dayz...Van Halen was the king of all party bands....:Beers::Fire:ThumbsUp:WooHoo:

oh well, gotta go take the dog for a walk with my youngest kid now..[roll]
 
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RU848789

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Another excellent summary article by Derek Lowe in today's In The Pipeline, this time on the status of the major vaccine efforts worldwide. Although the non-scientific part he ends with is just as interesting as the all the science in the main part of the article. It ain't going to be boring to watch and someday I'm sure we'll see books written about this effort...and a movie with Tom Hanks in there somewhere, lol...

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/11/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-11

Finally, there are political considerations. Aren’t there always. The various companies involved all have an incentive to be the first to announce an effective vaccine, of course – that will be a huge publicity event. On top of that, there is surely a desire on the part of the current administration to be able to announce this before the election in November – and let me be clear, this would be true no matter who was in office, or from which party. I will say, though, that the President’s willingness to promote hydroxychloroquine so far during the pandemic does not bode well for his restraint when it comes to potential treatments. The election season will just make that more fraught. And internationally, one can already see some elbow-throwing between the US and China (and potentially between the US and Europe?) on the origin of the first effective vaccine as well. Russia is part of this as well. National pride is at stake, which also can lead to some otherwise-irrational behavior.

The next few months, then, are not going to be dull. Politics aside, the organization and execution of all these trials will be a huge and complex effort, as mentioned, and when the numbers start coming out of them we’re going to surely be taken by surprise. That’s what clinical trials do; this won’t be different. I’m expecting sudden reversals, and sudden bursts of hope, despair, and confusion. None of us have ever seen anything like what’s coming, and I hope we never have another opportunity to see anything like it again!
An update to the vaccine development landscape in today's blog by Derek Lowe. If you really want to know the current status and issues associated with all the major vaccine candidates and the players in the game, read this. Nobody does it better, IMO. He summarizes the efforts across the major vaccine categories: viral vectors (includes the various adenovirus approached such as the Oxford-AZ collaboration which just entered phase III trials), genetic vaccines (includes Moderna's mRNA vaccine), recombinant protein vaccines (like Novavax's) and deactivated virus vaccines (old school, but proven and only China is playing in this space). The viral vector and genetic vaccine approaches have never been successfully deployed and approved in humans before, hence the skepticism of many on these approaches. He does these every few weeks.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...navirus-vaccine-update-june-29#comment-322982
 

RU-05

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NY State reported just 5 deaths yesterday due to Covid19. NY/NJ/Conn./Pa. have done wonders in bringing all the numbers down. Beaches, parks opened for 6 weeks and no spike in any numbers. Time to open the gyms and everything else.
I'm not against it, but when the #'s start to increase you have to be prepared to close things back down.
 
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WhiteBus

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@WhiteBus: to the best of my knowledge, I don’t know you personally nor you me. I only know one poster on this thread personally but have formed my own opinions on most of the regular posters and their inclinations/biases etc.

You puzzle me.

While you do occasionally come across as brusque and irritated or angry and insist that others spell out and do a lot of the work, you do often ask eminently reasonable questions. For example I understood – or so I think – your reason for insisting on knowing deaths versus cases in all of these new outbreak states. You, I believe, want to know if these additional cases are actually translating into deaths or if treatments have made COVID-19 much less dangerous, or if the virus has potentially mutated to a less virulent form, or whatever else. I think that is a fair question and well worth understanding. And I can tell you are frustrated by what you consider fear mongering.

Fine. But I remain truly puzzled by your attitude toward masks.

I am no expert on COVID and am learning or unlearning (!) something or the other about it every day. But when I know that COVID is an airborne contagion and I read stuff like how Hong Kong has a ridiculously low number of deaths and/or Seoul and Tokyo’s subways are full of people every day and they have kept their cases and deaths low, I am forced to believe that masks make a huge difference. I have visited Tokyo and Hong Kong and the population density on a day-to-day basis in terms of their commutes etc. often exceeds even NYC. And yet, their results not just in deaths but also more importantly in CASES are so much lower!

Could I ask you what else if not masks you think is different there to make CASES so low per capita when everything would suggest otherwise? It doesn’t actually matter WHY they are wearing masks as opposed to us, does it? Doesn’t the simple fact that they wear them and their case counts are so much lower mean something? If, say, you believe that wearing masks wasn’t the only thing that caused these stunningly different results – after all I can’t “prove” that it did – what else could be responsible for such a difference? Better tracing, better quarantining, what? And since no one can "prove" it is any of those things either, what is it about wearing masks that seems to so bug you?

What am I missing? I ask to understand and not to debate or fight about this.
valid question I have answered many times but since there are 250 pages in this thread I don't expect anyone to have read it all. However I have been very consistent about masks from day one.
First off I am not against masks at all especially indoors. What I am totally against are posts that I recently replied to that say masks are a leading, and in some cases, the leading factor of stopping the spread. It is a bunch of nonsense. The #1 most important thing we can do is social distance. And it's not even close. However since masks are such a hot button in this society the focus has been nearly 100% about masks. There are countless commercials with famous local and national people telling people to mask up. I saw 3 different billboards the past 2 days in Cape May County about masks. Meanwhile. Social distancing has taken a back seat. Do you think for a second that the South is getting sick because of no masks or packed beaches and bars?
Here is my other problem with masks. We tell people to constantly wear masks but we don't tell them the correct why to wear it. In my store maybe 50% of the people are wearing it wrong. What is worse is the state law requires people to wear a mask to enter a supermarket but they are slowly figuring out that there is no law that they can be thrown out or arrested once they are in the store without one.
As for what other countries did better than the US is countless. First off they were better suited to handle it from a hospital standpoint as the US was way down on the list of ICU beds as a % population. Testing, tracing... #s and I agree on one thing 100%. The US had a playbook to implement. The current leadership choose to ignore it.
 
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RU4Real

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Some esoteric measure called the transmission rate was up
Good lord.

Rt isn't an "esoteric number". It's a key metric in predicting the rate of future case development. It's up. Spread is increasing. Not by a lot, but it's increasing. Why would you, knowing that, approve a reopening milestone that has proven to increase the infection rate?

Trump thinks like you, which is precisely the reason why we have 125,000 dead people in this country.
 

Caliknight

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How does violence in NY have anything to do with Covid? Please stop. You just can’t help yourself, it’s bizarre.
Your knee jerk reaction to everything is bizarre. Of course there is a correlation. When people were sequestered crime has been down. As soon as they weren’t, it went up. Especially in NYC where it was already on the rise. Now it’s going through the roof.
 

RUhasarrived

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Even wearing a mask,Murphy can talk out of both sides of his mouth:Restaurants can't open because the diners are sedentary while the gyms can't open because the members are active.Still,he'll be re-elected because of The Magnificent Seven(counties).
 
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