COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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RU-05

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Based on a visit to 2 bar in your town? My experience suggests the opposite. Bars would be the last place most sane people would visit.
That I think is the central part of the "economic recovery" Certain segments of the economy are on fire. While others are dying.

It's getting hard to find building materials because of how high the demand currently is.

Beer and liquor in general is probably OK, but those sales are all in retail, not in bar settings.

Sounds like Auto demand is high, but obviously airlines not so much.

Online retail(see amazon) doing great brick mortar in big trouble.

So maybe the question is not will those failing industries survive, but more, how long will it take for the thriving industries to absorb the failing ones?
 

rutgersguy1

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Based on a visit to 2 bar in your town? My experience suggests the opposite. Bars would be the last place most sane people would visit.
The other day saw article of an outbreak of 85 cases tied to a bar in Michigan with possibility of more cases and they were asking everyone who visited that bar to self quarantine iirc.
 

wisr01

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I dunno about this theory. I'm putting Germany in the South Korean boat. They responded better.

Granted that is only one leg of the theory, but in general if you allow it to run unabated in a densely packed city, it will run wild. If you close it down, it will slow the spread, if you reopen it will speed back up. Lots of evidence supporting this idea.
NYC began re-opening three weeks ago. My son said the last two weeks people have been out and about and not everyone wearing masks. With all that here is the data:

 

RU-05

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NYC began re-opening three weeks ago. My son said the last two weeks people have been out and about and not everyone wearing masks. With all that here is the data:

True, but as we saw with Florida it does take awhile for those #'s to tick back up. Especially when the #'s are as low as NYC's have been.
 

RUBOB72

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The public health / economic risk presented by coronavirus is/was enormous...from January on, hundreds of thousands of lives known to be at stake / depression risk presented to the economy...I don’t think the public will be receptive to an Administration that wants to debate the scope of it ‘obligations’ in such a crisis.
Why not? Let’s have that debate since your reply is asymptomatic of why we are where we are... people in state governments passing the buck...for example in this state , New Jersey has been underfunded and overspent for years filling the pockets of lobbyists , politicians and union leaders is that the Federal Government’s fault ? We still keep borrowing, spending and this after what ? The highest taxed state in the USA...All one needs to see is the BS article in the NJ Advance regarding why The American Dream Mall is still good... good for whom? It is not the soul responsibility of the President and Federal Government to take a daily tally of what a state lacks or needs... that’s why you and I and others elect what we hope is a governor and a state Administration of competent people... Health , Finance, Social Services, Safety... then we also have to look around at the hospital system which really screwed this up... Hospital CEO making big $$$$ not following health guidelines...listen people blame the guy in the White House but include the lackadaisical, inept that were on the ground in their respective states.
 

wisr01

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True, but as we saw with Florida it does take awhile for those #'s to tick back up. Especially when the #'s are as low as NYC's have been.
We will see, but Florida's numbers were slightly increasing over the first three weeks after re-opening and then exploded the past two weeks. NYC the last three weeks has continued down:

 
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RU-05

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On the bright side, and a bit of an explanation for the increased cases in FL, they did increase their testing by over 50% week over week. After hovering around 230K tests per week for the last 5 weeks. This week they tested 370K. Pretty sure they combine virus testing #'s with antibody #'s, but no doubt about it, that is a big jump in tests.

On the not so bright side is the positivity rate increased from 8.47 last week to 9.31 this week(and again they combine tests so the antibody results likely pull that # down a bit).

As Friedman noted, the virus is now entrenched, so those #'s will stay high for a bit, even if they implemented strict mitigation practices immediately, but at least, between increased testing, and the reclosing of bars, it does appear they are taking it more seriously.

All in all I think that is some good news.
 

RU-05

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We will see, but Florida's numbers were slightly increasing over the first three weeks after re-opening and then exploded the past two weeks. NYC the last three weeks has continued down:

When did NYC bars open? 2 weeks agoish?

But what do we think was the impetus to the downward trend? Ran out of possible hosts or mitigation measures? I thin it is way to coincidental that cases dropped not long after mitigation(and increased testing) were implemented.
 
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RU-05

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Why not? Let’s have that debate since your reply is asymptomatic of why we are where we are... people in state governments passing the buck...for example in this state , New Jersey has been underfunded and overspent for years filling the pockets of lobbyists , politicians and union leaders is that the Federal Government’s fault ? We still keep borrowing, spending and this after what ? The highest taxed state in the USA...All one needs to see is the BS article in the NJ Advance regarding why The American Dream Mall is still good... good for whom? It is not the soul responsibility of the President and Federal Government to take a daily tally of what a state lacks or needs... that’s why you and I and others elect what we hope is a governor and a state Administration of competent people... Health , Finance, Social Services, Safety... then we also have to look around at the hospital system which really screwed this up... Hospital CEO making big $$$$ not following health guidelines...listen people blame the guy in the White House but include the lackadaisical, inept that were on the ground in their respective states.
C'mon Rob, the American Dream? You know darn well this kind of post should not be here.
 
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Barnaby&Neill

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Why not? Let’s have that debate since your reply is asymptomatic of why we are where we are... people in state governments passing the buck...for example in this state , New Jersey has been underfunded and overspent for years filling the pockets of lobbyists , politicians and union leaders is that the Federal Government’s fault ? We still keep borrowing, spending and this after what ? The highest taxed state in the USA...All one needs to see is the BS article in the NJ Advance regarding why The American Dream Mall is still good... good for whom? It is not the soul responsibility of the President and Federal Government to take a daily tally of what a state lacks or needs... that’s why you and I and others elect what we hope is a governor and a state Administration of competent people... Health , Finance, Social Services, Safety... then we also have to look around at the hospital system which really screwed this up... Hospital CEO making big $$$$ not following health guidelines...listen people blame the guy in the White House but include the lackadaisical, inept that were on the ground in their respective states.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conflation
 

wisr01

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When did NYC bars open? 2 weeks agoish?

But what do we think was the impetus to the downward trend? Ran out of possible hosts or mitigation measures? I thin it is way to coincidental that cases dropped not long after mitigation(and increased testing) were implemented.
Florid's bars opened June 5th and within two weeks the daily cases had doubled. NYC after two weeks the cases have gone down almost in half.
 

RUBOB72

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I’m probably much older than you though I do still remember Val Barnaby and Ryan Neil... as far as the Wikipedia link ... number one do you actually still believe anything on Facebook , Twitter, Google etc. are worth the time ? If you are attempting to disprove that NJ has stumbled and bumbled since Robert Meyner you would be wrong ... This state has always had ineffective leadership at the top both Republican and Democrats... it is why we have no money... remember this fact... the garbage you put into a system usually comes out the same way... and it depends immensely on the person or persons who are inputting those facts... that has never changed...save the link for your future minions who believe anything they are told or taught in school... why do any research ... why not think it out for yourself?
 

ashokan

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Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections.
Looks like transmission of an airborne, respiratory illness is minimized by covering mouth and nose. WHO could have guessed?

It was "the people" who recognized that masks were needed, and started using them despite the "experts" flubbing most basic understanding.

The "we needed masks for medical workers" thing is hollow because by not having people use coverings, a much bigger epidemic was created - more viral load/exposure for staff.

There were actually hospitals telling nurses they risked being fired for wearing masks because they "intimidated others." CDC was used to support this nonsense. This is why people take their lives in their hands with "medical experts."

Kaiser threatened to fire nurses for wearing their own masks
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/nursing/kaiser-threatened-fire-nurses-wearing-their-own-masks
 
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RU848789

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According to Friston's model he suggests that number is 50-80% and that it varies for each population. His example is he believes his model suggests that Germans had a larger non-susceptible portion than the UK. So the two neighborhoods in the Bronx that were slammed with over 40% have a different population makeup than other locations that were not hit as hard so his theory still stands. BTW, the Bronx has recently been averaging about 60 cases a day with a population of 1.4M in a small geographic region. As things have slowly opened the cases have not increased over the last month or so. In fact they are going down. Would suggest not many susceptibles left.
I recall reading his stuff awhile back (and Leavitt's - we had a huge exchange on Leavitt's theories back in March in this thread and on the CE board) and being at least intrigued, being a math/probability guy. In fact, if you go back to March/April, I was taking some of their approach and the data from he Diamond Princess (where ~20% became infected) to postulate that the max infected could end up being 20%. But then as things got worse and worse in Europe and the NE US and we saw some populations with 50-80% infections by PCR testing (prisons and meatpacking plants) and then saw 20% in NYC and up to 40-45% in parts of the Bronx (33% overall in the Bronx) by antibody testing, I moved more towards thinking that maybe the 55-80% being infected would be correct.

It was also hard to have high faith in a purely DCM-based (dynamic causal modeling) probabilistic approach to epidemiology for me, without some shred of scientific evidence showing how only 20% or so might truly be affected/infected. But in the last 6 weeks or so, since that first cross-reactivity finding was published (see the link below) in mid-May, I've found it to be at least more plausible, which is why in most of my long-winded sets of calcs of potential deaths, I now put in the caveat about cross-reactivity (and cures/vaccines and virus weakening) potentially greatly reducing infections/deaths, if confirmed.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-116#post-4563258

Friston may be confident about all this, but I'm certainly not and until we have hard evidence of actual immunity from cross-reactivity (we don't yet) I think governments still have to plan for 55-80% true infections with an IFR of 0.5-10.%, which means millions of deaths worldwide being at least plausible.

Also, I take exception with his comments about variability in populations - it's hard to think that that could be so large as mean that 20% are "susceptible" (i.e., no "natural immunity" to the virus) in the UK and 33% in the Bronx. The simpler explanation is that people in the Bronx were subject to the most transmission risk, because it's a poorer area, where people often have more public-facing jobs and have to utilized public transit vs., say, Manhattan or SI, which had much lower infection rates (16-17% via antibody testing). But we can't "know" for sure which scenario is correct.

And I think he greatly overlooks the power of masking/social distancing (which are really the same thing, i.e., measures to prevent transmission). If those didn't matter, he needs to find a way to explain why most of the East Asian countries only have 50-250 cases/1MM, while Europe, the US and many others have 2500-10,000 cases/1MM, about 40-50X more (and similarly much greater deaths per 1MM) - most experts believe that masking/distancing are a huge part of why those countries have such low transmission rates. I can't believe that Friston would chalk up the fact that Tokyo only has 0.1% of its population having antibodies vs. the Bronx having 33% with antibodies being due to differences in native immunity; I assume the same will be true in SK, Taiwan and elsewhere in East Asia, but haven't seen antibody test results from those places yet. Meaning he's wrong about distancing/masking and if he's wrong about that, maybe his modeling isn't perfect either.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/16/national/science-health/tokyo-coronavirus-antibodies/

Edit: one more point: even if only 20% of 330MM are "susceptible" at 0.5-1.0% IFR, that would still be 330-660K US deaths, which is simply unacceptable, so it doesn't change what we should be doing, IMO, which is universal masking and a much better job of tracing/isolating any positives and contacts of positives. We can do all that without having shutdowns.
 
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RU848789

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Ewww...




Study: COVID-19 Is Also Spread by Fecal-Oral Route

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85315
Sorry but that headline is, ahem, crap, especially since the actual paper says, "Therefore, fecal-oral transmission could be an additional route for viral spread," which is much different from the article headline you copied (not your fault). We already know the virus is far, far more likely to be transmitted in respiratory droplets vs. from surfaces and viral levels on surfaces are far more likely to be touched than viral levels in poop, ergo fecal-oral transmission is likely zero. Also, if fecal-oral were a real route, then just plain oral from food would be a route and all the experts say food with viruses on it is not a risk when ingested.

https://www.gastrojournal.org/artic...pagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85315
 

RU848789

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April 3rd Fauci interview. So not at the very beginning, but still early on and touching on the points I mentioned.



Is left wing media reveling in panic porn? Absolutely.

Is the right wing media(maybe moreso the extreme right wing internet community) engaged in an unwarranted disinformation campaign regarding Fauci? Absolutely.

Fauci even touches on the Un American aspect of forcing people to wear masks.

The attacks on this guy shine a very negative light on where we are in our political discourse.
I barely watch any TV because I dislike the relentless focus on Trump and how bad things are in most of the "mainstream" media and I can't abide, at all, the misstatements and misleading information (especially bad scientific info) on most right wing media. I'll take largely accurate hype over inaccuracy every day, though.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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I’m probably much older than you though I do still remember Val Barnaby and Ryan Neil... as far as the Wikipedia link ... number one do you actually still believe anything on Facebook , Twitter, Google etc. are worth the time ? If you are attempting to disprove that NJ has stumbled and bumbled since Robert Meyner you would be wrong ... This state has always had ineffective leadership at the top both Republican and Democrats... it is why we have no money... remember this fact... the garbage you put into a system usually comes out the same way... and it depends immensely on the person or persons who are inputting those facts... that has never changed...save the link for your future minions who believe anything they are told or taught in school... why do any research ... why not think it out for yourself?
I believe NJ’s financial condition is irrelevant to my earlier point; and by bringing it up, you were conflating issues (hence the wikipedia link).
 

ashokan

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Also, if fecal-oral were a real route, then just plain oral from food would be a route and all the experts say food with viruses on it is not a risk when ingested.

https://www.gastrojournal.org/article/S0016-5085(20)30282-1/pdf?referrer=https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85315
"Experts" lol. Experts have failed miserably and reversed themselves often. If someone with CV sneezes on a steak and you put it in your mouth you think you're safe? Lol.

NYC has to actually warn people not to put their mouths on peoples stinkers.

NYC declares war on ‘rim jobs’

“Rimming (mouth on anus) might spread COVID-19. Virus in feces may enter your mouth,” the city warned in the section titled, “Take care during sex.”

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nyc-declares-war-on-rim-jobs-in-graphic-health-department-memo/
 
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RobertG

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He had to hedge because his intention was to presever PPE in the hands of medical pros.

He says exactly this.
I understand his intensions but his communications on this was very poor. Lying is not a good communications strategy. If he had phrased it like they are currently phasing it and asked people to pitch in and save n95 and surgical for the frontline people would have responded.
 

RU848789

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Not a milestone anyone wanted to see, but the World reached 10,000,000 positive viral cases (which likely means 50-100MM actual infections) and 500,000 deaths yesterday (that's a 5% case fatality ratio, which is just about identical to the US's, with 128K dead in 2.6MM cases). Most experts are pretty sure that countries like Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, Mexico and more are significantly under-reporting deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 
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WhiteBus

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And you don't get this either. If we had 100% mask wearing (it's so easy yet so many refuse to consider their neighbors, friends or just fellow citizens) our case and death rates would be near zero, like they are in most of east Asia. We don't "have" to live with this level of cases, illnesses, or deaths. It's beyond mind boggling that there's not a Federal mandate to wear masks.
Who is going to enforce it? You act like masks are the sole reason other countries are doing better which is a bunch of horse crap.
 

TroothSkr

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@WhiteBus: to the best of my knowledge, I don’t know you personally nor you me. I only know one poster on this thread personally but have formed my own opinions on most of the regular posters and their inclinations/biases etc.

You puzzle me.

While you do occasionally come across as brusque and irritated or angry and insist that others spell out and do a lot of the work, you do often ask eminently reasonable questions. For example I understood – or so I think – your reason for insisting on knowing deaths versus cases in all of these new outbreak states. You, I believe, want to know if these additional cases are actually translating into deaths or if treatments have made COVID-19 much less dangerous, or if the virus has potentially mutated to a less virulent form, or whatever else. I think that is a fair question and well worth understanding. And I can tell you are frustrated by what you consider fear mongering.

Fine. But I remain truly puzzled by your attitude toward masks.

I am no expert on COVID and am learning or unlearning (!) something or the other about it every day. But when I know that COVID is an airborne contagion and I read stuff like how Hong Kong has a ridiculously low number of deaths and/or Seoul and Tokyo’s subways are full of people every day and they have kept their cases and deaths low, I am forced to believe that masks make a huge difference. I have visited Tokyo and Hong Kong and the population density on a day-to-day basis in terms of their commutes etc. often exceeds even NYC. And yet, their results not just in deaths but also more importantly in CASES are so much lower!

Could I ask you what else if not masks you think is different there to make CASES so low per capita when everything would suggest otherwise? It doesn’t actually matter WHY they are wearing masks as opposed to us, does it? Doesn’t the simple fact that they wear them and their case counts are so much lower mean something? If, say, you believe that wearing masks wasn’t the only thing that caused these stunningly different results – after all I can’t “prove” that it did – what else could be responsible for such a difference? Better tracing, better quarantining, what? And since no one can "prove" it is any of those things either, what is it about wearing masks that seems to so bug you?

What am I missing? I ask to understand and not to debate or fight about this.
 
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ashokan

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Why is New York allowing graduations?
Most of the local ones I've seen have been in parking lots of parks and malls. People are spread out (some even stay in parked cars) and wearing masks. Restaurants are back open. There's no need to keep the people locked-up right now. NY has been through the mill, and most people take things vastly more serious than people in some other states. Wearings masks solves a lot of problems. If people riot night after night then kids can graduate
 
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LETSGORU91

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Looks like transmission of an airborne, respiratory illness is minimized by covering mouth and nose. WHO could have guessed?

It was "the people" who recognized that masks were needed, and started using them despite the "experts" flubbing most basic understanding.

The "we needed masks for medical workers" thing is hollow because by not having people use coverings, a much bigger epidemic was created - more viral load/exposure for staff.

There were actually hospitals telling nurses they risked being fired for wearing masks because they "intimidated others." CDC was used to support this nonsense. This is why people take their lives in their hands with "medical experts."

Kaiser threatened to fire nurses for wearing their own masks
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/nursing/kaiser-threatened-fire-nurses-wearing-their-own-masks
Well said.

[QUOTE="ashokan, post: 4620922, member:

NYC has to actually warn people not to put their mouths on peoples stinkers.

NYC declares war on ‘rim jobs’

“Rimming (mouth on anus) might spread COVID-19. Virus in feces may enter your mouth,” the city warned in the section titled, “Take care during sex.”

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nyc-declares-war-on-rim-jobs-in-graphic-health-department-memo/[/QUOTE]

...just when I thought the NY Post couldn't get any slimier with their reporting.
 
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