ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Stark differences continue in comparing the outbreaks in South Korea and Italy. SK reported 483 new infections on Saturday, bringing its total caseload to 7041, including 48 deaths, for the lowest reported fatality rate anywhere in the world, of about 0.6%, which is very likely due to their highly aggressive testing rates, with over 158,000 people being tested to date - as I've posted before, this appears to confirm a likely actual lower mortality rate one would truly expect if most/all of the cases are factored in (and not just the fairly serious cases that have generally been tested for in most countries, to date). Interestingly, more than 5,000 of those infected are Daegu residents and a vast majority of them belong to the Shincheonji Church.of Jesus, which is considered a cult by many other South Korean Christian churches.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/...show&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu

In contrast, Italy, which has the worst outbreak outside of Asia, saw its number of cases rise 4,636, with 197 of them fatal, for an overall mortality rate of 4.2% (and only China has seen more deaths)! However, it should be noted that the media age of those dying from the infection is 81, which further confirms how dangerous this infection is to people over 65, as has been seen in China and other countries and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship where all the deaths were in people over 70. The government has ordered the closure of all schools for 10 days as it battles to contain the outbreak and all professional sports, including Serie A football matches, will also be played without fans in attendance until at least 4/3. NCAA Tourney, NBA, NHL, baseball, etc.?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ar-200-after-biggest-daily-jump-idUSKBN20T2ML

Testing rates are very interesting comparing countries. As of 3/2, the last date available on the World-o-Meter site for the coronavirus (a great resource for stats/stories). SK has a fairly similar number of cases to Italy, for example, but has tested about 5X as many people (110K to 23K as of 3/2 and SK is up to 158K tested now).

And guess who the worst laggard is in the list - yep, the USA with 472 tests performed as of 3/2, which I'm sure is a large part of why we've only seen 300+ cases, when that number is likely in the thousands and is also why our mortality rate is the highest I've seen (5.1% - denominator is so small). The US-CDC also stopped reporting testing rates, supposedly since States are now doing so, but I haven't seen that data and not having a country-wide dataset is unacceptable IMO.

Below are a couple of tables from that site, summarized here, with selected countries, as the tables can't be cut/pasted and I didn't feel like copying the data for every country, lol. Sorry for the ugly tables - I put hard spaces in so they'd look like tables (after finding out soft spaces were ignored). Anyone know of a way to either copy/paste the source tables or how to enter them here manually so they look like a table? Bueller?

Testing Rates as of March 2, 2020 (when the CDC stopped reporting number of tests in the US)
Country.........Tests Performed....Tests per Million....Population
China (no data in table)
S Korea........109,591................. 2,138.....................51,269,185
Italy.................23,345..................386........................60,461,826
UK..................13,525..................199.........................67,000,000
USA.................. 472....................1...........................331,000,000

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Case Rates (via confirmed tests) and Death Rates (deaths/cases) as of March 7, 2020
Country........Cases Confirmed....Deaths..Death Rate
China...........80651.......................3071.....3.8%
S. Korea.......7041.........................48.........0.7%
Italy...............4636........................197........4.2%
UK..................164...........................2.........1.2%
USA................335.........................17.........5.1%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's irresponsible to post "death rates" until the denominator is better known. Until then, these numbers are completely pointless.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rhuarc and ashokan
IMG_2632.jpeg

these threads are in dire need of humor
 
It's irresponsible to post "death rates" until the denominator is better known. Until then, these numbers are completely pointless.
I disagree completely, especially since I showed testing rates and case rates and showed there were likely interrelationships, plus these are out there for anyone to see. You dismissing this out of hand for weeks was irresponsible.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MADHAT1 and czxqa
I disagree completely, especially since I showed testing rates and case rates and showed there were likely interrelationships, plus these are out there for anyone to see. You dismissing this out of hand for weeks was irresponsible.
It's America, you have a right to be wrong and contribute to misinformation and hysteria.
 
Governor Cuomo just announced a state of emergency in all of NY. It's about to explode in these parts and you should assume that people you're contacting now could have it before having symptoms, but are still contagious. 76 people now infected in NY, including 11 in NYC with this example being the scariest and perhaps not so atypical. Things are about to go crazy around here, including a lot more cases in NJ very soon (already here, I assume) and when they go crazy in NYC/LA, the country follows.

Expect to start seeing a lot more shutdowns of everything (still think the NCAA tourney is going to be fan-less and other sports will be too, just like they're doing in Italy) and a lot more cases. Like I said the other day, I think we'll see 5000 cases in the US by next weekend (as long as we up the testing rate, which we better start doing) and over 100 deaths. Anyone over 65 should really not be going out if they're in a location that has some community spread, given the far higher death rates in older people.

On Friday night, a man who drives for taxi or ride-hailing services in Queens tested positive for the coronavirus, and the discovery of the new case prompted more than 40 doctors, nurses and other workers at a hospital there to go into self-quarantine over fears that they might have been exposed, officials said on Saturday.

The man, 33, walked into St. John’s Episcopal Hospital in the Far Rockaway section of Queens on Tuesday and reported flulike symptoms. He went home and returned later when his symptoms worsened, an official said.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-queens.html

Changed thread title from "COVID-19: virus spreading; $8.3BB spending bill; CDC lifts testing restrictions; mortality rate <1%?" to current title.
 
Last edited:
30 days supply? Dang, and I thought my two week supply was on the long end. Time for another BJs run I suppose. Interesting reading my Facebook feed, how my friends were poking fun at me for being a weird prepper two weeks ago, now posting how they were starting to get concerned and cannot buy any hand sanitizer now that they want it.
 
Governor Cuomo just announced a state of emergency in all of NY. It's about to explode in these parts and you should assume that people you're contacting now could have it before having symptoms, but are still contagious. 76 people now infected in NY, including 11 in NYC with this example being the scariest and perhaps not so atypical. Things are about to go crazy around here, including a lot more cases in NJ very soon (already here, I assume) and when they go crazy in NYC/LA, the country follows.

Expect to start seeing a lot more shutdowns of everything (still think the NCAA tourney is going to be fan-less and other sports will be too, just like they're doing in Italy) and a lot more cases. Like I said the other day, I think we'll see 5000 cases in the US by next weekend (as long as we up the testing rate, which we better start doing) and over 100 deaths. Anyone over 65 should really not be going out if they're in a location that has some community spread, given the far higher death rates in older people.

On Friday night, a man who drives for taxi or ride-hailing services in Queens tested positive for the coronavirus, and the discovery of the new case prompted more than 40 doctors, nurses and other workers at a hospital there to go into self-quarantine over fears that they might have been exposed, officials said on Saturday.

The man, 33, walked into St. John’s Episcopal Hospital in the Far Rockaway section of Queens on Tuesday and reported flulike symptoms. He went home and returned later when his symptoms worsened, an official said.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-queens.html

Changed thread title from "COVID-19: virus spreading; $8.3BB spending bill; CDC lifts testing restrictions; mortality rate <1%?" to current title.

I shudder to think about what things are going to be like in the NYC metro area. We should have been doing mass testing weeks ago. We should have had the ability to test people with atypical pneumonia weeks ago, even if they had no travel history. I think this country has (and is) handled this as badly as any "advanced" country could. Now we have to hope it turns out that the ratio of severe/deadly cases is low and that there is a spring/summer knockdown of the disease.
 
Italy had a huge jump in cases like 1200+ in a day. Deaths dropped though from previous day to 36.

From CNN

Italy coronavirus cases jump by 1,247 in a day

From Livia Borghese and Jonny Hallam

Italy saw a dramatic increase in the number of confirmed coronavirus cases today with a rise of 1,247 in a single day, the Civil Protection Department said in a statement.

The country now has a total of 5,883 cases.

The death toll also continues to climb with 36 fatalities reported on Saturday. The country has reported the most deaths outside of China, a total of 233.

Silvio Brusaferro, head of the Health Institute, said in a press conference that the majority of the deceased are male, over 80-years-old and suffered from other diseases.
 
OMG those poor people. Just yesterday I read some comments about how great China's response has been and one of the bullet points was building a hospital in a week.

For the record, that hospital suffered structual collapse and I believe was abandoned
 
I shudder to think about what things are going to be like in the NYC metro area. We should have been doing mass testing weeks ago. We should have had the ability to test people with atypical pneumonia weeks ago, even if they had no travel history. I think this country has (and is) handled this as badly as any "advanced" country could. Now we have to hope it turns out that the ratio of severe/deadly cases is low and that there is a spring/summer knockdown of the disease.
I'm also very afraid we frittered away all the advantages gained from the early travel ban from China and are about to see an Italy-like outbreak in the next few day in multiple locations, probably mostly driven by population density, which is why I fear for cities like NYC/LA etc.

My son has a bunch of young friends in NYC, Hoboken, etc. and said very few of them are even thinking about this situation, even with the SOE. Maybe they all think only old people will get sick (some truth to that, but some younger people got sick and died in China).

As you said (and you, me, and others have been saying), not having mass testing in place and appropriate medical supplies/training in place and public plans for what to do are all just unacceptable in what is supposed to be an advance society. So, let's rely on spring as a strategy, hoping this is seasonal like influenza (it probably is, but that's taking just a huge risk). Yeah.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MADHAT1
This could be our ill-prepared future in parts of the US (including the megalopolis from Boston to DC), unless Spring saves us, which I doubt, since we're likely only about 2 weeks behind Italy. Based on these boards and Facebook, where I post similar info, I don't really think people know that this is a real possibility here soon, especially with cases in nearby NYC/suburbs jumping up very quickly.
 
Last edited:
Didn't realize you could get test results in as little as 10 minutes at those drive thru testing stations in South Korea.

From the article:

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3
 
Didn't realize you could get test results in as little as 10 minutes at those drive thru testing stations in South Korea.

From the article:

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

Yep and they're far safer for people being tested and the medical personnel conducting the tests. It's starting to become unconscionable that the USA is not doing more with regard to testing, ensuring supplies for the public and for medical personnel, and readying plans for quarantines. All we keep hearing is excuses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MADHAT1
Yep and they're far safer for people being tested and the medical personnel conducting the tests. It's starting to become unconscionable that the USA is not doing more with regard to testing, ensuring supplies for the public and for medical personnel, and readying plans for quarantines. All we keep hearing is excuses.
Yea it's an inventive way of getting people tested and safer too but the speed of results (10 min) is quite surprising. I thought they were just taking samples and results would be given later..10 mins is rapid.
 
Didn't realize you could get test results in as little as 10 minutes at those drive thru testing stations in South Korea.

From the article:

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3


Unfortunately the CDC bungled testing, because they didn't want the simple and fast test the WHO recommended - the test S Korea uses.

No the CDC wanted to test for three diseases at a time (and took days to report results) and they botched the tests.

Don’t Test, Don’t Tell: The Bureaucratic Bungling of COVID-19 Tests

"Now that doesn’t mean that you can’t screw up the coronavirus test if you really set your mind to it. And in fact, that’s exactly what the CDC did in January, when they rejected the World Health Organization’s proposed test panel for SARS-CoV-2 (the official name for this particular novel coronavirus which causes the disease COVID-19) in favor of a gold-plated test panel of the CDC’s own design. After all, why just test for SARS-CoV-2 when you could also test for other SARS and MERS"
viruses? Unfortunately, with complexity came error, and these initial CDC triple-test kits had a flaw in one of the multiple tests, ruining the entire test. Now the CDC is producing a solo test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but this fiasco set us back weeks in test-kit supply.

So if it’s not a difficult or expensive test to make, why are so many countries pursuing a policy of Don’t Test, Don’t Tell? The answer, of course: to maintain a political narrative of calm and competence."

Throw the CDC is with the all the other agencies that are run by turkeys and that dont work anymore

https://quillette.com/2020/03/06/dont-test-dont-tell-the-bureaucratic-bungling-of-covid-19-tests/
 
  • Like
Reactions: AntiG
Along with being the absolute best in the world at controlling the outbreak (mostly because they are blocked from being part of the WHO, so they developed their own far more stringent protocols), Taiwan has successfully completed development of a 10 minute test strip for the Wuhan virus.

Hopefully our governments work closely together in order to prevent a disaster here.

https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002270013 (older article from when the trial runs were announced)
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/3092628 (successful completion, this one will need to be translated)
 
Last edited:
Yea it's an inventive way of getting people tested and safer too but the speed of results (10 min) is quite surprising. I thought they were just taking samples and results would be given later..10 mins is rapid.

It's hard to find details, but I believe South Korea is using a serological test, which is rapid; probably similar to a home pregnancy test. The CDC seems to prefer a genetic test (PCR) to test for three different virus genes. PCR based tests take several hours (I would say 3-6 hours minimum).

From my personal knowledge (not citing any actual data on the Covid-19 tests, since I can't find any), the PCR test would be expected to be far more sensitive than the serological test. The PCR test, however, must be done in a lab setting by an experienced technician, whereas the serological test can be run by anyone. I would expect that the PCR test will generate more false positives, while the serological test will have many false negatives.

So the choices are a test that misses lots of positive people, but is fast and can be done anywhere, by anyone, or a test that is more sensitive, but takes many hours and requires a lab setting.

A little like the Kobayashi Maru
 
From a Bloomberg article a few days ago:

Highly contagious and manifesting in some with little or no symptoms, the coronavirus has the world struggling to keep up. But when it comes to containing the epidemic, one country may be cracking the code -- by doubling down on testing.

South Korea is experiencing the largest virus epidemic outside of China, where the pneumonia-causing pathogen first took root late last year. But unlike China, which locked down a province of more than 60 million people to try and stop the illness spreading, Korea hasn’t put any curbs on internal movement in place, instead testing hundreds of thousands of people everywhere from clinics to drive-through stations.

It appears to be paying off in a lower-than-average mortality rate. The outbreak is also showing signs of being largely contained in Daegu, the city about 150 miles south of Seoul where most of the country’s more than 5,700 infections have emerged. South Korea reported the rate of new cases dropped three days in a row.

It’s an approach born out of bitter experience.

An outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015 killed 38 people in South Korea, with a lack of kits to test for the MERS pathogen meaning infected patients went from hospital to hospital seeking help, spreading the virus widely. Afterward, the country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

When the novel coronavirus emerged, that system allowed regulators to collaborate quickly with local biotech companies and researchers to develop testing kits based on a genetic sequence of the virus released by China in mid-January. Firms were then granted accreditation to make and sell the kits within weeks --a process that usually takes a year.

In a short space of time, South Korea has managed to test more than 140,000 people for the novel coronavirus, using kits with sensitivity rates of over 95%, according to the director of the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine.

Testing widely has meant South Korea knows where its infections are centered, and so far they’ve been able to keep them largely contained with outbreaks beyond Daegu in the minority. In the capital Seoul, home to 10 million people, there have only been 103 infections.

The emphasis on diagnosis is also being credited with helping patients get treatment early, bringing the mortality rate from the virus to under 1% -- below every other affected country save Singapore, where the outbreak is on a much smaller scale.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
This is coming from complete ignorance of the subject matter.. but if a fast test can be made that favors false positives over false negatives.. you then should to a two-tier testing process.

Fast test shows positive.. possibly false.. move that person to the longer test queue

You'll need fewer of the lab-type-tests
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUevolution36
Re: South Korea... I had a call Thursday night with colleagues from Seoul. They said everyone is confined to working from home and rarely / go outside. There might not be martial law rules like China but people are at least behaving in that way (be it corporate guidance, normal risk aversion, etc.)
 
Re: South Korea... I had a call Thursday night with colleagues from Seoul. They said everyone is confined to working from home and rarely / go outside. There might not be martial law rules like China but people are at least behaving in that way (be it corporate guidance, normal risk aversion, etc.)
That's the simplest way to reduce transmission rates. We've been in near lockdown for a week, given we're close to old and my wife has some respiratory issues as does our son, who also has the immunoglobulin issues and he can take all his RU grad school classes on line - better safe than sorry, we think.

And even though I would be more risk-taking, since I rarely get sick, I don't want to even become an asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carrier and infect them. I can also mostly work from home (only working 8 hrs/wk post-retirement) - my biggest issue is going to be the NCAAs. I absolutely want to go and they don't want me to - and it's possible it won't matter if they don't let fans in anyway.

We go out a few times a week late at night (less people) to stock up and we decon well when we get back (person-to-person is still a much more likely infection route vs. surfaces), as needed and still go for walks and such. , as there should be no risk from that.

Think it's going to be a few more weeks like this, at least, as we're just about to see cases skyrocket in the NYC/NJ area, as we're already up to 515 US cases, including 89 in NY and now 6 in NJ - it's inevitable with the number we have now, the lack of testing (we're flying blind with no data), and the lack of direction people have gotten, as people re generally doing nothing different. And then we'll see quarantines, panic, hoarding and lots of finger-pointing and, unfortunately, lots of sick people and deaths.

If folks really want to see what's going on, the Johns Hopkins dashboard is superb. Shows every country on the map and one can zoom in and see how many in how many hotspots, including how many infected, recovered, deaths, etc. It's really well done.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Repeating the end of my last long post, as I didn't want it to get lost. If folks really want to see what's going on, the Johns Hopkins dashboard is superb. Shows every country on the map and one can zoom in and see how many in how many hotspots, including how many infected, recovered, deaths, etc. It's really well done.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Looks like crap on a phone though. Need to look at it on a PC.
 
From a Bloomberg article a few days ago:

Highly contagious and manifesting in some with little or no symptoms, the coronavirus has the world struggling to keep up. But when it comes to containing the epidemic, one country may be cracking the code -- by doubling down on testing.

South Korea is experiencing the largest virus epidemic outside of China, where the pneumonia-causing pathogen first took root late last year. But unlike China, which locked down a province of more than 60 million people to try and stop the illness spreading, Korea hasn’t put any curbs on internal movement in place, instead testing hundreds of thousands of people everywhere from clinics to drive-through stations.

It appears to be paying off in a lower-than-average mortality rate. The outbreak is also showing signs of being largely contained in Daegu, the city about 150 miles south of Seoul where most of the country’s more than 5,700 infections have emerged. South Korea reported the rate of new cases dropped three days in a row.

It’s an approach born out of bitter experience.

An outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015 killed 38 people in South Korea, with a lack of kits to test for the MERS pathogen meaning infected patients went from hospital to hospital seeking help, spreading the virus widely. Afterward, the country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

When the novel coronavirus emerged, that system allowed regulators to collaborate quickly with local biotech companies and researchers to develop testing kits based on a genetic sequence of the virus released by China in mid-January. Firms were then granted accreditation to make and sell the kits within weeks --a process that usually takes a year.

In a short space of time, South Korea has managed to test more than 140,000 people for the novel coronavirus, using kits with sensitivity rates of over 95%, according to the director of the Korean Society for Laboratory Medicine.

Testing widely has meant South Korea knows where its infections are centered, and so far they’ve been able to keep them largely contained with outbreaks beyond Daegu in the minority. In the capital Seoul, home to 10 million people, there have only been 103 infections.

The emphasis on diagnosis is also being credited with helping patients get treatment early, bringing the mortality rate from the virus to under 1% -- below every other affected country save Singapore, where the outbreak is on a much smaller scale.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

Yep, SK looks to be the leader in how to combat this virus. While they have the 2nd largest outbreak in the world, due to not closing the border with giant trade partner China in the early weeks of the outbreak, they've since done an incredible job responding to the situation. They currently have 7314 infections (out of over 160,000 tests done, by far, the most, so they know where they have issues), but only 50 deaths for a mortality rate of about 0.7%, so far, as opposed to 2-5% in other countries, including 5.0% in Italy with also about 7300 infections, and 4.0% in the US.

In addition, early detection leads to early treatment, which is likely part of the reason their death rate is so low - although population age is helping there too, as SK has less elderly than Italy, for example. And while infection rates are climbing rapidly in Italy and elsewhere, SK's number of new cases has slowed in the past several days, reporting around 400-500 per day as opposed to Italy reporting over 1200 per day (with both having ~7400 cases). Of course, some of the low mortality rate is simply statistical, since SK has "found" a lot more positive results, relatively speaking, than other countries, so the denominator is larger (in theory, the actual mortality rate should be close to a constant everywhere if people are testing/measuring similarly).
 
Sobering interview with Dr. Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, basically saying we need to start locking things down now in many places or else face a major epidemic and reactive quarantines, like in Italy. Things are very likely about to start getting very difficult around these parts.

DR. GOTTLIEB: Well, we have an epidemic underway here in the United States. There's a very large outbreak in Seattle. That's the one we know about, probably one in Santa Clara or maybe other parts of the country, other cities. And so we're past the point of containment. We have to implement broad mitigation strategies. The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion in this country. We'll get through this, but it's going to be a hard period. We're looking at two months probably of difficulty. To give you a basis of comparison, two weeks ago, Italy had nine cases. Ninety-five percent of all their cases have been diagnosed in the last 10 days. For South Korea, 85 percent of all their cases have been diagnosed in the last 10 days. We're entering that period right now of rapid acceleration. And the sooner we can implement tough mitigation steps in places we have outbreaks like Seattle, the- the lower the scope of the epidemic here.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-march-8-2020/

And if anyone doubts what I've been saying about the US likely following Italy's trajectory and being where they are in 1-2 weeks, just have a look at this graphic, which shows how eerily close the US progression has been for the past week or so, compared to the early days of the outbreak in Italy. That's why I've been saying the US will likely have 5000+ cases in another week or so. So, please, start thinking about taking some precautions if you haven't already - even if you might not get sick (especially if younger), you could become a carrier and infect friends and family around you.

88286586_10218410956059258_607050183695400960_o.jpg
 
Sobering interview with Dr. Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, basically saying we need to start locking things down now in many places or else face a major epidemic and reactive quarantines, like in Italy. Things are very likely about to start getting very difficult around these parts.

DR. GOTTLIEB: Well, we have an epidemic underway here in the United States. There's a very large outbreak in Seattle. That's the one we know about, probably one in Santa Clara or maybe other parts of the country, other cities. And so we're past the point of containment. We have to implement broad mitigation strategies. The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion in this country. We'll get through this, but it's going to be a hard period. We're looking at two months probably of difficulty. To give you a basis of comparison, two weeks ago, Italy had nine cases. Ninety-five percent of all their cases have been diagnosed in the last 10 days. For South Korea, 85 percent of all their cases have been diagnosed in the last 10 days. We're entering that period right now of rapid acceleration. And the sooner we can implement tough mitigation steps in places we have outbreaks like Seattle, the- the lower the scope of the epidemic here.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-march-8-2020/

And if anyone doubts what I've been saying about the US likely following Italy's trajectory and being where they are in 1-2 weeks, just have a look at this graphic, which shows how eerily close the US progression has been for the past week or so, compared to the early days of the outbreak in Italy. That's why I've been saying the US will likely have 5000+ cases in another week or so. So, please, start thinking about taking some precautions if you haven't already - even if you might not get sick (especially if younger), you could become a carrier and infect friends and family around you.

88286586_10218410956059258_607050183695400960_o.jpg

Basically....if you wait till it's too late, it's too late.

Wait till they start ramping up the testing. Case counts are going to soar.
 
Basically....if you wait till it's too late, it's too late.

Wait till they start ramping up the testing. Case counts are going to soar.
It's almost already too late - it's about to get bad out there in many ways. While this isn't the Andromeda Strain or the 1918 Flu Pandemic, it's much worse than a regular flu season, for mortality rates and serious complications, especially for those over 65, even if total deaths will likely be well less than any flu season, because I assume we're about to embark on major interventions shortly, which should at least prevent that, and we're going to see some major impacts in the US shortly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ashokan
Stock trading halted after Dow drops 7.3% at the opening today. While I've been pushing hard to see people and governments becoming more proactive, I'd be happy to see this not become as serious as I think it's going to be, especially in high population density locations, where transmission rates will clearly be greater.

The issue I have is testing and interventions. If we don't test and put in place social distancing and other interventions, it's going to get pretty bad, IMO, whereas I think this will likely be "manageable" if we start doing a much better job of responding and being proactive, but my fear is we haven't seen a lot of that yet.

The good news is worldwide deaths are still way below influenza levels (almost 4000 deaths now vs. 300K-600K by flu in a typical year), but that's only been with very aggressive interventions in places like China and now other countries. Without those interventions, this could potentially kill more people than the flu and greatly stress the health care system as serious complication rates are also greater than the flu (like mortality rates are). Tough times ahead...
 
Stock trading halted after Dow drops 7.3% at the opening today. While I've been pushing hard to see people and governments becoming more proactive, I'd be happy to see this not become as serious as I think it's going to be, especially in high population density locations, where transmission rates will clearly be greater.

The issue I have is testing and interventions. If we don't test and put in place social distancing and other interventions, it's going to get pretty bad, IMO, whereas I think this will likely be "manageable" if we start doing a much better job of responding and being proactive, but my fear is we haven't seen a lot of that yet.

The good news is worldwide deaths are still way below influenza levels (almost 4000 deaths now vs. 300K-600K by flu in a typical year), but that's only been with very aggressive interventions in places like China and now other countries. Without those interventions, this could potentially kill more people than the flu and greatly stress the health care system as serious complication rates are also greater than the flu (like mortality rates are). Tough times ahead...

Today's stock crash is not entirely due to the Coronavirus, though that Black Swan crashing through our collective windshield surely destabilized things. The oil markets and Treasury markets are in free-fall. The Saudis have gone rogue against OPEC and are flooding the market with cheap oil, crashing prices. American shale producers are going to be wiped out by the end of the day. Institutions that were "long oil" were pantsed and have to liquidate holdings to stay afloat.

Oh, and it is rumored that there is a coup underway in Saudi Arabia as no one has seen the King in weeks and the princes are starting to "off" each others' families.

Not a fun day. Put your helmets on.
 
Today's stock crash is not entirely due to the Coronavirus, though that Black Swan crashing through our collective windshield surely destabilized things. The oil markets and Treasury markets are in free-fall. The Saudis have gone rogue against OPEC and are flooding the market with cheap oil, crashing prices. American shale producers are going to be wiped out by the end of the day. Institutions that were "long oil" were pantsed and have to liquidate holdings to stay afloat.

Oh, and it is rumored that there is a coup underway in Saudi Arabia as no one has seen the King in weeks and the princes are starting to "off" each others' families.

Not a fun day. Put your helmets on.
Yep, Russia vs. the Saudis is probably not a good thing. And the plunge in oil is going to hurt many here in the US at a time we don't need that. Market has recovered a bit - "only" down 5.2% now.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT