Greg with all due respect my brother , a 40 year resident of Scottsdale Arizona , had two of his family tested just within 2 weeks... did not relate anything about difficulty getting tested... said the hospital rush and positives were down as well as the number of fatalities ... so maybe , maybe not?
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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curious as to what the wait for results was after each test? thx
I posted on having clear, effective and trustworthy communications being critical to success in fighting a pandemic. Do you think we've had that? Many don't and without getting deeply into all the politics of it, if people like Fauci, Collins, Slaoui, and other top scientists are on board with a vaccine approval, then I'll be and I would hope all politicians would be, but if it looks like corners are being cut for political reasons, then I won't be and to not think that's a possibility is being naive. My preference would be for every politician to keep quiet about vaccines and wait for the data, but I won't hold my breath.
Why the Trump brand is toxic for a vaccine | Editorial
What’s needed is absolute fair play, to enhance public confidence. Yet we’re getting exactly the opposite.www.nj.com
This is from nj.com . A few days ago somebody posted about communications. But, the massive opposition to the current gov. continues to undermine any message. Kamala Harris said similar to the nj.com article. How doe this help if we have a vaccine come out and people mistrust it ?
Hawaii has definitely contained their outbreak with the number of cases now declining. They should still be in the bottom 2-3 in deaths per capita (along with Alaska and Wyoming) when this wave is over.
More on how many scientists missed the mark.
we have a VP gaslighting, care to address that...are they saying J&J and Pfizer are in on this wild conspiracy theory...and let me be straight here...its Q level
you are a liar, you have no receipts...exposed again for lying just as you came back from your banning...maybe you will get reported again
what is laughable by Camela is that the same friggin vaccine would be used by their administration if they won..what dopes, they are gaslighting a vaccine during a pandemic, that is a new low
Nope you say it everyday. Go run to the mods again little tattle tale.
World Bank Document Lists COVID-19 Program Ending in March 2025
The World Bank’s COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program documents, marked “For Official Use Only,” identify the Bank’s COVID-19 program as ending in March 2025, more than four years away from our current date (read page 1 of 60). The program’s start date was April 2020. The World...
nationalfile.com
Can anyone explain why COVID-19 tests/apparatus would have been produced in 2017 and 2018 when the virus wasn’t even sequenced until late 2019/early 2020? What am I missing here?
The site I linked to is a little dubious/biased but they do link to the world bank report which is what I’m focused on.
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It's kinda funny how these guys praise those socialists. I thought Venezuela was the socialist example of the day.
Weren't you and your brother bitching about people walking by you while cutting lawns back in April?
Have been struggling with the Oak Ridge paper (that the Medium article above is based on) and another paper by a couple of prominent cardiologists, which just came out in the journal Circulation (by the American Heart Association), which seems somewhat complementary, but somewhat contradictory to the Oak Ridge one. And on top of that, there's a recent commentary in JAMA, by some Dutch doctors, saying the "cytokine storm" (over-inflammation reaction from the immune system), which many have said is key to the death spiral in many patients, doesn't really occur in COVID patients, which kind of supports the Oak Ridge paper, but is not in complete agreement with the Circulation paper (although they weren't investigating the inflammatory part of the system). Clearly, there's still some confusion out there amongst the medical experts on what exactly is going on with COVID, especially at the cellular level and how that impacts macro-level patient outcomes.
I think what the Oak Ridge folks are saying is that there is an incredibly complex cascade of effects once the virus enters both lung and vascular endothelial cells, via the ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzymes) pathway, eventually leading to wild swings in the RAS system (renin-angiotensin system), which induce similar effects in the related bradykinin system, leading to "bradykinin storms" featuring massive buildup of bradykinin in the body, leading to many of COVID's deadly effects. At one point, they do say, “the pathology of Covid-19 is likely the result of Bradykinin Storms rather than cytokine storms,” which had been previously identified in Covid-19 patients, but that “the two may be intricately linked.” They also mention that this can lead to increased production of hyaluronic acid (HLA, a molecule that can trap 1000X its weight in water) in the lungs. forming a "hydrogel," and according to the paper, once this happens, “it’s like trying to breathe through Jell-O.”
The Circulation paper makes the case that while COVID is obviously a respiratory disease, at its heart (pun intended) it's more of a microvascular disease: "We propose that severe COVID-19 is a microvascular disease in which coronavirus infection activates endothelial cells, triggering exocytosis, a rapid vascular response that drives microvascular inflammation and thrombosis." This paper goes through a ton of clinical data on progression of the disease, especially in blood vessel epithelial cells, host to countless ACE2 receptors, and talks about how that can lead to the "cytokine storms" and ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome), but due to the underlying vascular issues. I would imagine "bradykinin storms" which are part of the vascular system would be consistent with their research (it's just not a detail they looked into, I think).
The Dutch paper was aimed specifically at trying to measure cytokines for patients in the "cytokine storm" phase of severe COVID disease, but their findings were that they didn't really see highly elevated levels of cytokines. As per the authors, "The results from this study show that COVID-19 is not characterized by a cytokine storm....the severe disease observed in critically ill COVID-19 patients is therefore not explained by strongly elevated levels of inflammatory proteins in the blood. This means that critically ill COVID-19 patients likely will not benefit from specific anti-cytokine therapies." Obviously, there are all kinds of systemic effects leading to serious illness and death in many COVID patients, but maybe those aren't driven by a cytokine storm.
I'll admit confusion here. Might be time to "phone a friend," lol. Maybe one of our medical/immunology folks can help make more sense of this (and correct any major errors I might have above). @LETSGORU91 @93RUDoc @RUfubar @UMRU?
A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm
Gene expression analysis reveals a novel, integrated molecular mechanism for much of the pathogenesis of COVID-19 that provides therapeutic intervention points that can be addressed with existing approved pharmaceuticals.elifesciences.org
Does the COVID-19 cytokine storm exist? - Research may have an impact on the chances of success of a specific treatment
4 September 2020www.radboudumc.nl
Not a one-size-fits-all disease. Not all have typical cytokine release syndrome or storm. Differing immune responses give different disease trajectories and implications for treatment. The immune system seems to be confused and not only is there different storms at different times but different other tornadoes and cyclones are coming in all different times. These are the gurus out of Yale who have defined 3 phenotypes of disease
Longitudinal analyses reveal immunological misfiring in severe COVID-19 - Nature
A longitudinal analysis of immune responses in patients with moderate or severe COVID-19 identifies a maladapted immune response profile linked to severe disease.
www.nature.com
From the wiki page (with citations) on Levitt. Nobody believes those China numbers, which have to be at least 5-10X greater, so that prediction sucked and most of his other forecasts haven't been so hot either, especially his prediction of 10 total deaths in Israel (over 1000 and counting) and his most recent gak in predicting on 7/25 that COVID would be over in 4 weeks and deaths would be below 170K.
In March, the Los Angeles Times reported that Levitt correctly forecasted in February that the COVID-19 pandemic in China would soon peak and that China would end up with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths from COVID-19.[41] However, it has been noted that Levitt actually made a number of predictions, including incorrect forecasts, in February about China's COVID-19 trajectory[42], including one on February 7, 2020 claiming that "by 14-Feb. we will have reached 95% of the eventual death count of 928".[43] Levitt also has stated his belief that achieving natural herd immunity to the virus is possible[44] and has spoken against lockdown orders.[45]
Levitt also wrongly predicted that Israel would suffer no more than 10 COVID-19 deaths[46]. On July 25, 2020, Levitt predicted that COVID-19 in the United States would be over "in 4 weeks with total reported deaths below 170,000".[47] However, this prediction about the reported death count also ended up being wrong as the number of reported deaths from COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 170,000 on August 16, 2020, only 3 weeks after Levitt's prediction.[48]
Michael Levitt - Wikipedia
And calling this a "bad flu?" Seriously? A bad flu is 60-70K deaths not 193K and likely to be at least 300K by the time we have a vaccine. Also, his comment of a 0.04-0.05% population fatality ratio regardless of lockdown is just nuts. That would be 165K in the US, which isn't far off the current number, although it'll be at least 2X off soon; however, that would be 55K in Japan, where 1357 have died so far and the same is true in many other countries. He also thought we'd do better than China back on 3/25. So tell my why we should listen to Levitt, in general. Doesn't mean he's wrong that science has not always been a shining example during COVID, but I think he's focusing on the bad and not the good, especially the the great worldwide collaborations on research into how COVID impacts the body and on developing new treatments and vaccines.
Thanks - nice paper - seriously complex stuff...Not a one-size-fits-all disease. Not all have typical cytokine release syndrome or storm. Differing immune responses give different disease trajectories and implications for treatment. The immune system seems to be confused and not only is there different storms at different times but different other tornadoes and cyclones are coming in all different times. These are the gurus out of Yale who have defined 3 phenotypes of disease
Longitudinal analyses reveal immunological misfiring in severe COVID-19 - Nature
A longitudinal analysis of immune responses in patients with moderate or severe COVID-19 identifies a maladapted immune response profile linked to severe disease.
Excellent epidemiological analysis of how Hong Kong responded to and contained its COVID outbreak from February through May. Textbook approach, utilizing aggressive testing, combined with tracing/isolating and augmented by distancing (including selected shutdowns of some activities at times) and very high levels of masking. Hong Kong did experience a 2nd wave this summer, but they're back down to baseline again, after following similar procedures. Overall, they have about 650 cases/1MM (about 30X less than the US) and 13 deaths per 1MM, which is about 45X less than the US.
Only because they were entering my space while eating lunch or when we were exiting the truck on desolate roads when they had access to avoid us.
To be fair I do recall your post last week linking that NYT Opinion piece trashing Trump on "communications". Without getting deeply into all the politics of it, it's hardly a surprise this is now a talking point for the Dems.
Great video by the Times showing what effective COVID communications looked like in many countries and what confusing, ineffective communications have looked like in the US. Fairly obvious rules of communications that we used to practice very well in past disasters - just not now - build trust, know your audience, and think long term. It's really not difficult - we just haven't done it yet.
Opinion | The Three Rules of Coronavirus Communication (Published 2020)
While the United States was creating confusion with its virus messaging, the rest of the world got creative.www.nytimes.com
The quote from Harris on the vaccine is an example to back up my reply on the communications issues. While the administration has not been clear. The resistance from the opposition has clouded any messages from the start. With the first opposition to the China flight ban, to the HCQ fiasco, to even calling for reporters not report on the news conferences. The opposition has been fighting each thing the administration stated from the start. You cannot have clear communications in this fractured political environment. And the fault lies on both sides.
Just a point I’ve noticed regarding gyms. I live in northern Virginia and they opened gyms in early June. For most of June/early July, very few gym goers wore masks. Slowly, they became more and more commonplace to the point that now, everyone wears masks all the time (except while doing cardio). I have lots of friends in Jersey, and it seems that very few are wearing masks at the gyms. Obviously it varies greatly depending on the gym‘s management and culture. But I hope and assume the same trend will occur in Jersey as happened in VA, with mask-wearing becoming more of a societal norm. Needs to happen fast with fall quickly approaching.
Curious...you believe the HK numbers but not China's?
So here's a science question that you and certain others have not commented on yet: with US PCR testing at 37-40 cycles of amplification, driving virus levels in their samples up 100-1000 times as high as the German standard, do you still believe US case and fatality chicomvirus numbers can be fairly compared to other countries?
It’s the rule in NJ.
It’s also why I continued to freeze my gym membership as long as the mask thing is required.
When does he extend his edict and when does the next shutdown start ? I would guess by next week perhaps Tuesday ... Wednesday... but what is with that number 5 from 2 month’s ago and last week two from June as well... does he give his typical “we’re going by the science” quote...Why has it taken Johns-Hopkins to give a more definitive accounting of covid19 recovered patients ...the number has been around 34 k for several weeks but we sure get the “ 196 k tested positive... it logically should be double at minimum... and probably many more... I know... Science...
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This guy said deaths would be 170,000 at most and said Israel was cured of Corona months ago, meanwhile they have had their worst of the outbreak this month. He has been consistently wrong.
Similar to why Congress changed the bankruptcy laws in 2006? Did they know the 2008 car wreck was coming?World Bank Document Lists COVID-19 Program Ending in March 2025
The World Bank’s COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program documents, marked “For Official Use Only,” identify the Bank’s COVID-19 program as ending in March 2025, more than four years away from our current date (read page 1 of 60). The program’s start date was April 2020. The World...
Can anyone explain why COVID-19 tests/apparatus would have been produced in 2017 and 2018 when the virus wasn’t even sequenced until late 2019/early 2020? What am I missing here?
The site I linked to is a little dubious/biased but they do link to the world bank report which is what I’m focused on.
Thought this was interesting.
Study on a superspreading event, Sturgis. This would be the largest studied superspread event and a cause for the current South Dakota epidemic and other states.
Study on a superspreading event, Sturgis. This would be the largest studied superspread event and a cause for the current South Dakota epidemic and other states.
. What does the “ Science “ say ? ... on a side note the governor did put at least a temporary stop to removal of the American Flag from the overpasses of the Turnpike...Tom Feeney NJ Turnpike media needs a tuneup...think he once worked at the Star Liar ?
No they said RT is up to 1.10 which according to the governor means covid is spreading how is the RT increasing every day when cases are decreasing please someone explain this to me!!!
Pretty soon we’ll find another group of deaths from March and April.
Rt is on a lag by about 5 days. Because cases today we're less than yesterday, and yesterday was lower than the day before, and 2 days ago was lower than three days ago, Rt will drift down to 1.0 in the next 3/4 days. As long as we fluctuate in a range of 250/350 cases a day, Rt will bounce on either side of 1.0. At this level of cases per population in NJ, Rt is too sensitive and should be ignored.
the Sturgis piece by the Guardian based on some academic study about 250K cases being linked to the rally is the epitome of fake news.
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