Distribution of Minutes
- Thread starter zebnatto
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I am more interested in the style of play this coming season. Will we become a faster paced team (Offense and Defense)?
If so players will be subbed in and out a lot.
With depth and interchangeable parts it will be interesting. Next year even more so with Young and Mulcahy, plus another TBD.
If so players will be subbed in and out a lot.
With depth and interchangeable parts it will be interesting. Next year even more so with Young and Mulcahy, plus another TBD.
Pace is an interesting question. Good transition basketball is often more about defense and rebounding to start the break than intent offensively. The team had opportunities to break it last year but didn’t due to depth. With this deeper roster, it may be possible, but i would be cautious of wearing out our PGs too much. Additionally, if this roster can get more open looks through passing in the halfcourt, transition play as a focus becomes less necessary.
I think Eugene is playing as close to 40 mins per game as he can without fouling out. Endurance won’t be an issue for him it seems. Geo will be around 32. I think everyone else depends on matchup and performance, a new luxury!
To be clear this is to start the year. By January I only expect us to be going 9 or 10 deep depending who has performed. I doubt we play 11 guys all year (except for foul trouble situations).
On second thought I think you're right, although I see Harper getting more and Mathis getting fewer than you've posted.
These are wild wild stabs. You may be right.
We know Geo and Eugene are constants. Huge variance to all the rest.
We know Geo and Eugene are constants. Huge variance to all the rest.
Coach P's first season only Corey played over 27 mpg. That '16-'17 year, of the 12 scholarship players, 11 averaged over 8 mpg (only Bullock didn't).
Last year the injury to Mike and the disappointing play of Souf necessitated big minutes (29+ each) from Geo, Corey and Issa as there was nowhere else to turn.
I think Coach P prefers a minutes distribution more in line with his first season and barring a rash of injuries I think we'll see a broader distribution of minutes. I expect all 11 scholarship players getting time (all getting 8+ mpg), especially early in the schedule.
Last year the injury to Mike and the disappointing play of Souf necessitated big minutes (29+ each) from Geo, Corey and Issa as there was nowhere else to turn.
I think Coach P prefers a minutes distribution more in line with his first season and barring a rash of injuries I think we'll see a broader distribution of minutes. I expect all 11 scholarship players getting time (all getting 8+ mpg), especially early in the schedule.
FSU took that mentality all the way to the Elite 8 last year. They played 12 guys 10+ minutes a game. Not saying Rutgers has the recruits that Leonard Hamilton has at his disposal but it's something to think about as you're running in fresh guys every few minutes during the heart of the B1G schedule. Could tip some games in their favor just on sheer hustle and energy.
If Geo averages 32 minutes per game, he will be exhausted by the time February rolls around.
Aside from that, I think we have sufficient guard depth to NOT play him so many minutes. The backup "PG"/lead guard will be manned by a combination of McConnell and Kiss, IMO.
Aside from that, I think we have sufficient guard depth to NOT play him so many minutes. The backup "PG"/lead guard will be manned by a combination of McConnell and Kiss, IMO.
Thinking a bit more on this after having read Jerry's Q&A, this is the way I see things:
PG/LG - Baker (28), McConnell (8), Kiss (4) [NOTE: Kiss at LG is really just my own speculation and hedge against McConnell being able to handle the role right out of the box]
SG - Kiss (20), Mathis (20)
WF - Thiam (26), Harper (14)
PF - Omoruyi (28), Carter (12)
C - Carter (12), Johnson (10), Doorson (10), Doucoure (8)
So the total distribution of minutes would be:
- Baker 28
- Omoruyi 28
- Thiam 26
- Kiss 24
- Carter 24
- Mathis 20
- Harper 14
- Johnson 10
- Doorson 10
- McConnell 8
- Doucoure 8
The guy who can upset this apple cart, so to speak, is McConnell. If he shows that he can handle the PG/LG position against good competition, his minutes would increase, probably at the expense of Harper and/or Thiam.
PG/LG - Baker (28), McConnell (8), Kiss (4) [NOTE: Kiss at LG is really just my own speculation and hedge against McConnell being able to handle the role right out of the box]
SG - Kiss (20), Mathis (20)
WF - Thiam (26), Harper (14)
PF - Omoruyi (28), Carter (12)
C - Carter (12), Johnson (10), Doorson (10), Doucoure (8)
So the total distribution of minutes would be:
- Baker 28
- Omoruyi 28
- Thiam 26
- Kiss 24
- Carter 24
- Mathis 20
- Harper 14
- Johnson 10
- Doorson 10
- McConnell 8
- Doucoure 8
The guy who can upset this apple cart, so to speak, is McConnell. If he shows that he can handle the PG/LG position against good competition, his minutes would increase, probably at the expense of Harper and/or Thiam.
Apologies for going all nerd on you......in that year the median minutes for Sanders was 32
Baker 29
McConnell 11
Omoruyi 28
Carter 16
Thiam 20
Harper 16
Kiss 21
Mathis 21
Doorson 15
Johnson 15
Doucoure 8
This is just a guess long before our first game.
McConnell 11
Omoruyi 28
Carter 16
Thiam 20
Harper 16
Kiss 21
Mathis 21
Doorson 15
Johnson 15
Doucoure 8
This is just a guess long before our first game.
In my opinion McConnell has to play more because you’d like to be able to play Geo off the ball a little. If he can give us 15 minutes that would go a long way. Rivals says the kid had offers from West Virginia (Huggins) and VCU (Rhodes) and I like his tape.
We probably need McConnell a bit more than he is ready for, but I’ll wager he is much better in game 31 than he is in game 1. And I think he will be fine in game 1.
Baker 32
Eugene 26
Mathis 24
Kiss 22
Thiam 20
Doucoure 16
Harper 15
McConnell 13
Johnson 11
Doorson 11
Carter 10
This team is long and will defend and rebound. We know that. I’m intrigued.
We probably need McConnell a bit more than he is ready for, but I’ll wager he is much better in game 31 than he is in game 1. And I think he will be fine in game 1.
Baker 32
Eugene 26
Mathis 24
Kiss 22
Thiam 20
Doucoure 16
Harper 15
McConnell 13
Johnson 11
Doorson 11
Carter 10
This team is long and will defend and rebound. We know that. I’m intrigued.
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Without considering garbage time, I think a rotation beyond 9 or maybe 10 is very difficult to manage when involved in competitive basketball games.
Looking at the stats from Stony Brook, Pike routinely played 10 guys (and some years 11) at least 8 minutes a game.
Baker 30
Eugene 26
Mathis 20
Kiss 22
Thiam 24
Doucoure 8
Harper 14
McConnell 12
Johnson 16
Doorson 18
Carter 10
People are underestimating the minutes Doorson will play. He started end of last year and will likely continue to start. Not many starters only play 10 min/game.
Eugene 26
Mathis 20
Kiss 22
Thiam 24
Doucoure 8
Harper 14
McConnell 12
Johnson 16
Doorson 18
Carter 10
People are underestimating the minutes Doorson will play. He started end of last year and will likely continue to start. Not many starters only play 10 min/game.
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I think the take away with these minutes is that we still don't have enough depth. We will be fine with no injuries and if all players are college ready. In a OOC game playing a small team we like to be able to play small. That means 6 guys for potentially 4 spots. I hope again we aren't impacted by the empty roster spot.
Having said that I am not against what we did with Young
Having said that I am not against what we did with Young
I think Harper will play less and Johnson will play more, other than that I agree.
I agree actually. Just tweaked it slightly. Now that it’s final, I’ll send it to Pike :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
He finally had an offseason where he was healthy, I think his endurance should be improved.
Looking a little more deeply at the rotations Pike used his last five seasons at Stony Brook:
2015-16:
Overall: 10 players played at least 26 of 33 games and averaged at least 8.6 min (8 with starts)
Conference: 10 players played at least 12 of 16 games and averaged at least 7.2 min (6 with starts)
2014-15:
Overall: 11 players played in at least 23 of 33 games and averaged at least 7.0 min (9 with starts)
Conference: 9 players played in at least 12 of 16 games and averaged at least 6.8 min (7 with starts)
2013-14:
Overall: 9 played in at least 29 of 34 games and averaged at least 9.2 min (1 more played in 25 games and averaged 5.8) (10 with starts)
Conference: 11 played in at least 11 of 16 games and averaged at least 6.7 min (9 with starts)
2012-13:
Overall: 11 played in at least 24 of 34 games and averaged at least 8.3 min (10 with starts)
Conference: 10 played in at least 13 of 16 games and averaged at least 7.9 min (10 with starts)
2011-12:
Overall: 11 played in at least 21 of 32 games and averaged at least 7.0 min (9 with starts)
Conference: 10 played in at least 14 of 16 games and averaged at least 8.2 min (6 with starts)
Some takeaways:
- It looks like Pike likes going 10-11 deep, but that the last 2-3 guys in the rotation tend to only get between 6.5-8.0 min
- He's not afraid to switch players lower in the rotation into the starting lineup occasionally, especially in non-conference play. Possibly due to injury/matchup, but also possibly to send messages to starters
- He tends to tighten up a bit in conference play, with the lowest guys in the rotation getting fewer minutes than they do in non-conference and fewer guys seeing starts
- He tends to have 4-5 players each year that miss 6-10 games entirely. This may be due to injury/illness, but we also saw this at times at Rutgers, where a guy like Doorson or Sa might not see the floor against certain matchups
2015-16:
Overall: 10 players played at least 26 of 33 games and averaged at least 8.6 min (8 with starts)
Conference: 10 players played at least 12 of 16 games and averaged at least 7.2 min (6 with starts)
2014-15:
Overall: 11 players played in at least 23 of 33 games and averaged at least 7.0 min (9 with starts)
Conference: 9 players played in at least 12 of 16 games and averaged at least 6.8 min (7 with starts)
2013-14:
Overall: 9 played in at least 29 of 34 games and averaged at least 9.2 min (1 more played in 25 games and averaged 5.8) (10 with starts)
Conference: 11 played in at least 11 of 16 games and averaged at least 6.7 min (9 with starts)
2012-13:
Overall: 11 played in at least 24 of 34 games and averaged at least 8.3 min (10 with starts)
Conference: 10 played in at least 13 of 16 games and averaged at least 7.9 min (10 with starts)
2011-12:
Overall: 11 played in at least 21 of 32 games and averaged at least 7.0 min (9 with starts)
Conference: 10 played in at least 14 of 16 games and averaged at least 8.2 min (6 with starts)
Some takeaways:
- It looks like Pike likes going 10-11 deep, but that the last 2-3 guys in the rotation tend to only get between 6.5-8.0 min
- He's not afraid to switch players lower in the rotation into the starting lineup occasionally, especially in non-conference play. Possibly due to injury/matchup, but also possibly to send messages to starters
- He tends to tighten up a bit in conference play, with the lowest guys in the rotation getting fewer minutes than they do in non-conference and fewer guys seeing starts
- He tends to have 4-5 players each year that miss 6-10 games entirely. This may be due to injury/illness, but we also saw this at times at Rutgers, where a guy like Doorson or Sa might not see the floor against certain matchups
Frankly, I don't see Doucore getting only 4-8 minutes per game as many have posted.
The rotation of bigs is something I'm really interested in this year.
Doucoure started 29 games last year and averaged 13 min, and one would expect that experience to carry over into his sophomore campaign - but we really haven't heard his name mentioned a lot over the summer.
Doorson started 4 games last year and also averaged 13 min, but we're hearing noises out the staff that he's much improved, finally healthy, and is looked to as a team leader as a 5th year senior.
But, we also add Johnson to the mix, who the staff has been talking up since the middle of last year. Pike said if he knew how fast he would have progressed, he probably wouldn't have redshirted him, and that he could have been a contributor last year. Over the summer, we've also heard good things about him - which makes me think he'll be a competitor for playing time.
We also can't count out Carter, who may demand more minutes than the <15 that will be left at the PF backing up Omoruyi... and Omoruyi himself, who saw 22 min/g but is billed again as the most improved player, and should very likely see 25+ min this year (maybe even 28-30).
That's also not considering any time we might play going smaller, with Thiam/Harper/Kiss playing the 4.
Lots of bodies competing for not a lot of time, and one of the bigs is likely to see only 6-8 min.
Not a bad list, but if Coach is correct and Gene is our best player, he needs to get more than 25 mpg.
With Eugene minutes 1 thru 25 are probably a lot better than 26 thru 32.
The way I see it....
6 guys for 3.5 spots
5 guys for 1.5 spots
He is in the group with 5 guys. Can he rebound? Can he rim protect? Can he be a source of offense?
I think he can definitely do two of those things and the third he can probably do as well if not better than the others in the group. Especially against man to man teams where he can draw big men away from the rim.
I expect all 6 "non bigs" to be a part of the rotation
I don't expect all 5 bigs to play every game.
At least 1 will be out of the rotation. The rotation could be a game to game rotation. Although I could see Doorson always getting a token 3 minutes at the start of every game if warranted.
My big question when looking at the offensive end.......
What lineup scores more points per possession?
Baker Mathis Kiss Thiam Carter
Baker Mathis Kiss Gene Carter
Take a look at a random B1G team. Most can be guarded with only 1 big. Most are better guarded with 1 big (until a shot goes up at least).
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That’s fair, but I guess I’d ask back to compare those to:
Baker Mathis Kiss Thiam Gene
I am with you on a lot of your posts about the need to have shooting 1-4. I think Eugene can play 5-10 mins at the 5 very effectively, and that his defensive leadership from that spot as well as screen setting can make him effective. It’s why I think Doucore will play very few minutes this year if he doesn’t improve.
That one! Can Eugene and the other 4 DREB enough? I am assuming Carter is a superior rebounder
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