GAME 29 PENN STATE: Flubbing the last line of the movie

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am as big of a Rutgers Basketball fan as 99.9% of people here.......

Based on the incomplete data I have the addition of Mulcahy and Young doesn't move the needle. I wouldn't expect B1G coaches or whoever votes on preseason polls to view our incoming class as a positive, might be a negative.

 

[whofrewdatmataRU13]

I am as big of a Rutgers Basketball fan as 99.9% of people here.......

Based on the incomplete data I have the addition of Mulcahy and Young doesn't move the needle. I wouldn't expect B1G coaches or whoever votes on preseason polls to view our incoming class as a positive, might be a negative.

Let me get whatever you're on

 

[RUChoppin]

I am as big of a Rutgers Basketball fan as 99.9% of people here.......

Based on the incomplete data I have the addition of Mulcahy and Young doesn't move the needle. I wouldn't expect B1G coaches or whoever votes on preseason polls to view our incoming class as a positive, might be a negative.

The biggest thing we have going for us in perception heading into next season is that we return essentially the entire team. Over 90% of the minutes played this year should be returning (barring transfers, of course), including 94% of the scoring. The question is whether the addition of Young/Mulcahy/Doucoure to this roster outweighs the loss of Doorson.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The biggest thing we have going for us in perception heading into next season is that we return essentially the entire team. Over 90% of the minutes played this year should be returning (barring transfers, of course), including 94% of the scoring. The question is whether the addition of Young/Mulcahy/Doucoure to this roster outweighs the loss of Doorson.

That is what i hang my hat on.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Let me get whatever you're on

Realism. Logical thinking.

What was Texas on when they recruited over Young?
What were other schools on when they didn't see Mulcahy as a point guard?

Young will/should provide much needed depth in the backcourt.
Mulcahy will/should give us much needed minutes at the backup point guard.

Very important! Will make big contributions to the program.

Expecting these 2 to move the needle a lot next year isn't realistic.

 

[RUChoppin]

That is what i hang my hat on.

The script will also be largely flipped on the youth vs. experience dynamic. This year, only 35% of our minutes came from upperclassmen, and 38% came from freshmen. Next year, I'd imagine 50% or more of our minutes will come from upperclassmen (Baker, Omoruyi, Young, Kiss, Carter, Thiam) and closer to 10% will come from freshmen.

 

[goru7]

How can you you see nothing from Penn State and Illinois. Both programs are big threats to RU moving up the standings

Unless Chambers replaces Stevens, who accounts for a majority of their scoring and their go to guy whodeserves serious condsideration for First team all Big 10, and Reeves, who is First Team all defense, we will and have already equaled or will pass them next year .
Illinois is coming back to earth and unlikely Giorgi will ever have another game like he had against us, and Coach I think was stubborn not to double him. Their other recruits besides Ayo are not better than our freshman. So I already see us equal to them and will pass them as well. If we played them tomorrow on a neutral court we would win. Last night Indiana made their defense look silly bad yesterday. We happened to have one of our best offensive performances against them. I doubt they will be stopping us any time soon.

 

[kcg88]

A lot depends on what happens with Lamar Stevens and Ayo Dosunmu. We'll see who goes pro and who doesn't.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Right now based on http://www.barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10

4 Michigan
8 Michigan State
9 Purdue
13 Wisconsin
20 Maryland
34 Penn state
39 Minnesota
42 nebraska
43 Iowa
45 Ohio state
50 Indiana
51 Illinois
71 Rutgers
73 Northwestern

That's what we are viewed at right now......you can debate the merit of all of this, but point spreads have been pretty darn right on what kenpom and bartrovik says all year.

 

[RUChoppin]

Looking at the roster next year:

Starters:
Baker - Should improve. After now having a full season running the point, he should be more adept from the start of his junior season in that role.
Mathis - Should improve. Had a slow start to begin his true frosh year, but was the consistent starters since game 12.
Harper - Should improve. Also started slower, but became the consistent starter in game 14 and has been coming on really strong the last 5+ games.
Omoruyi - May improve. How high is his ceiling as a senior?
Johnson - Should improve. A full year of live reps plus another S&C offseason should help, and bigs tend to play more in control as they get older. Biggest challenge is limiting fouls to stay on the court, and playing more aggressively on offense.

Overall, I think our starting 5 is going to be a better unit heading into next year than it was this year, and should improve as the season progresses.

Backups:
McConnell - Should improve. Has been consistently improving throughout the year, and an offseason of practice and S&C should help further.
Carter - Should improve. Had some trouble getting up to the speed of the game earlier in the year, and is still trying to figure out how to fit in defensively. An off season of practice should help with both.
Kiss - Should improve. He's been a better player over the last 5-10 games, especially defensively, but in limited
Thiam - A question mark. No idea what to expect next year, but as of right now I wouldn't expect him to see many minutes.

I think this year's bench guys will overall be better next year than the were this year.

Newcomers:
Doucoure - Comparison here should be as a replacement for Doorson, and I would think he'd be a step back from what Doorson brought this year defensively. I'd expect Johnson would pick up a portion of Doorson's minutes, but Doucoure will probably see a lot of them, too. Remains to be seen what the redshirt year has done for his development.
Young - A question mark. Hear he's quick and good defensively, and may be able to get into the paint.
Mulcahy - A question mark until we see him play at the college level, but all indications point to him being a good distributor.

While I don't think Doucoure is going to give us what Doorson gave us this year, the sum of these three parts could very well be more than what we're losing in Doorson. If we could pick up a grad transfer big, too, that'd be great.

All signs are pointing up for next year, and I'd imagine (if the season ended today) that we'll be picked in the 8-11 range in the preseason conference voting, and that kenpom will start us better than 80 going into the season.

 

[goru7]

A lot depends on what happens with Lamar Stevens and Ayo Dosunmu. We'll see who goes pro and who doesn't.

Reeves is graduating and Stevens coming off of his monster year should go pro. But even if he doesn’t,we played 2 even games with them and after Stevens and Watkins goes the year after , I do not see Chambers has replaced them with anyone on the roster that can fill their shoes or their respective positions.
Ayo is really good but like all freshman inconsistent. He was terrible last night against Indiana as they guarded him. The rest of that Illinois team is good but not great. Underwood is a tremendous recruiter and a good coach but I do not see them leaping to the 1-5 spots in the Big 10 any time soon.

 

[kcg88]

The Big Ten is almost certainly going to take a step back next year.

Michigan and Michigan State will be good, like always.

Purdue and Wisconsin should be good but Edwards and Happ are such huge parts of those teams that they'll be different, at least.

Minnesota loses Murphy and Indiana loses Morgan (and Langford obviously). Those are two more huge pieces, even though Indiana brings in another 5-star.

Maryland will be good but they could lose Smith and Fernando.

Iowa brings back everybody... but they stink right now. Their ceiling looks like 12-8.

Ohio State is absolutely brutal without Kaleb Wesson and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes pro considering this suspension. He's proven he can hit 3-pointers this year, he might just be over college.

Nebraska and Northwestern both project to be quite bad considering their best players are seniors and they're not very good this season.

Penn State and Illinois have the Stevens and Dosunmu questions.

IMO 9-11 is a base starting goal for us next season. Any worse than that would be a letdown.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Question marks in my mind (in order)
1. Eugene staying/getting healthy
2. Mathis consistency
3. Back up center--Shaq Carter?

 

[goru7]

The Big Ten is almost certainly going to take a step back next year.

Michigan and Michigan State will be good, like always.

Purdue and Wisconsin should be good but Edwards and Happ are such huge parts of those teams that they'll be different, at least.

Minnesota loses Murphy and Indiana loses Morgan (and Langford obviously). Those are two more huge pieces, even though Indiana brings in another 5-star.

Maryland will be good but they could lose Smith and Fernando.

Iowa brings back everybody... but they stink right now. Their ceiling looks like 12-8.

Ohio State is absolutely brutal without Kaleb Wesson and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes pro considering this suspension. He's proven he can hit 3-pointers this year, he might just be over college.

Nebraska and Northwestern both project to be quite bad considering their best players are seniors and they're not very good this season.

Penn State and Illinois have the Stevens and Dosunmu questions.

IMO 9-11 is a base starting goal for us next season. Any worse than that would be a letdown.

Good analysis ! The best freshman group I saw this year was Maryland, Purdue, Indiana with Rutgers , Penn State , Illinois and Minnesota having nice pieces that will get better next year. But as you say ,, if Ayo goes pro, or the 2 Maryland bigs go ,that changes their team drastically although I loved every other freshman Turgeon brought in . Minnesota with Gabe Kalschal and Atoure were fantastic but losing Murphy and if Coffey goes pro hurts them. Ohio State has some good freshman but they were very inconsistent like most freshman but the chemistry or whatever is going on there with Wesson has turned them into a dumpster fire.

 

[RUChoppin]

Question marks in my mind (in order)
1. Eugene staying/getting healthy
2. Mathis consistency
3. Back up center--Shaq Carter?

There will be 20-30 minutes available at the 4/5 after Omoruyi/Johnson, and while some will likely be taken by Harper playing the 4, I have to imagine both Doucoure and Carter see time at the 5.

Both Doucoure/Carter are 6-9, 245... with Doucoure as a RS Soph and Carter as a Senior. Carter spent most of this year as the second biggest guy on the court behind Doorson/Johnson, but did see some time as the primary big. Doucoure spent most of his time on the court as the primary big, with Freeman/Omoruyi as the secondary big.

 

[Rutgers25]

The Big Ten is almost certainly going to take a step back next year.

Michigan and Michigan State will be good, like always.

Purdue and Wisconsin should be good but Edwards and Happ are such huge parts of those teams that they'll be different, at least.

Minnesota loses Murphy and Indiana loses Morgan (and Langford obviously). Those are two more huge pieces, even though Indiana brings in another 5-star.

Maryland will be good but they could lose Smith and Fernando.

Iowa brings back everybody... but they stink right now. Their ceiling looks like 12-8.

Ohio State is absolutely brutal without Kaleb Wesson and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes pro considering this suspension. He's proven he can hit 3-pointers this year, he might just be over college.

Nebraska and Northwestern both project to be quite bad considering their best players are seniors and they're not very good this season.

Penn State and Illinois have the Stevens and Dosunmu questions.

IMO 9-11 is a base starting goal for us next season. Any worse than that would be a letdown.

9-11 and 17-13 overall is a good baseline goal. This would put us on the bubble but probably on the outside looking in barring a run in the conference tournament.

Agree that anything worse would be a let down. Pressure will start to pick on Pike next year for sure.

 

[bac2therac]

Unless Chambers replaces Stevens, who accounts for a majority of their scoring and their go to guy whodeserves serious condsideration for First team all Big 10, and Reeves, who is First Team all defense, we will and have already equaled or will pass them next year .
Illinois is coming back to earth and unlikely Giorgi will ever have another game like he had against us, and Coach I think was stubborn not to double him. Their other recruits besides Ayo are not better than our freshman. So I already see us equal to them and will pass them as well. If we played them tomorrow on a neutral court we would win. Last night Indiana made their defense look silly bad yesterday. We happened to have one of our best offensive performances against them. I doubt they will be stopping us any time soon.

do you think these programs are just sitting there not bringing anyone in. I think the Big 10 will still be a bear next year to move up in. Northwestern and Nebraska look to be struggling as programs right now but the other 12 are not. PSU/Ill/RU are all in similar spots for next season. I would not count on Iowa and Minny dropping down, Iowa brings back alot as well, Pitino has recruits lined up and they still have returning talent. Indiana is a big threat. OSU could go either way next year.

dont dismiss Giorgie like that, he is just a frosh every bit as good as our freshmen

 

[bac2therac]

Question marks in my mind (in order)
1. Eugene staying/getting healthy
2. Mathis consistency
3. Back up center--Shaq Carter?

I am not a fan of Shaq Carters play of late....in the Penn State game he was abused and overmatched in the little time he played. Also was pretty bad vs OSU. He is going to have to step it up...and unlike others I am not hopeful about Doucoure...that spot is somewhere that Pike needs a recruit

 

[bethlehemfan]

I am not a fan of Shaq Carters play of late....in the Penn State game he was abused and overmatched in the little time he played. Also was pretty bad vs OSU. He is going to have to step it up...and unlike others I am not hopeful about Doucoure...that spot is somewhere that Pike needs a recruit

Time will tell but I think Doucoure may surprise. I do agree with getting another big

 

[Scarlet83]

the Caleb and Kiss combination is disaster and should never be out there.

With at least one HUGE exception. Caleb, Kiss and the other non-starters played AWESOME in the first half against Minnesota. I think they had a 9-0 or 11-0 run to take us from a small deficit to a nice lead.

 

[RUonBrain]

Agree that anything worse would be a let down. Pressure will start to pick on Pike next year for sure.

I disagree.

Pressure from who?

AD?
No

Fans?
What are fans going to do? Demand he be fired? Boycott games? Boo?

 

[bac2therac]

its not pressure in that he is going to be fired or booed

but.....any honeymoon is over. He will be judged on wins and losses. Losing games like Penn State will matter more. Losing games to awful programs like Fordham will be judged very harshly. Greater expectations next year means more pressure to win. I am not heaping NCAA aspirations for the program next year like some are but no doubt year 4 becomes a year where it is fair to criticize more intensely

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

There will be 20-30 minutes available at the 4/5 after Omoruyi/Johnson, and while some will likely be taken by Harper playing the 4, I have to imagine both Doucoure and Carter see time at the 5.

Both Doucoure/Carter are 6-9, 245... with Doucoure as a RS Soph and Carter as a Senior. Carter spent most of this year as the second biggest guy on the court behind Doorson/Johnson, but did see some time as the primary big. Doucoure spent most of his time on the court as the primary big, with Freeman/Omoruyi as the secondary big.

this all concerns me. I do think there is a good chance we finally go small and have a decent amount of Harper as a 4th perimeter player.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

With at least one HUGE exception. Caleb, Kiss and the other non-starters played AWESOME in the first half against Minnesota. I think they had a 9-0 or 11-0 run to take us from a small deficit to a nice lead.

If that was the game twice Pike played the entire 2nd team then yes.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

its not pressure in that he is going to be fired or booed

but.....any honeymoon is over. He will be judged on wins and losses. Losing games like Penn State will matter more. Losing games to awful programs like Fordham will be judged very harshly. Greater expectations next year means more pressure to win. I am not heaping NCAA aspirations for the program next year like some are but no doubt year 4 becomes a year where it is fair to criticize more intensely

Not disagreeing with you......but i hope not. This really is a tough rebuild or build.

Let me ask you a question........give me your probability we make tournament based on what you know now.......

1. '19-'20
2. '20-'21
3. '21-'22

I don't want to get killed by the usually suspects, but the highest fro me might be next year #1. Gun to my head I put that at 20-25% right now.

Tough conference. Pike might ultimately get it done with guys that aren't on our radar. Baker and Eugene are the bridge to respectability.

 

[bac2therac]

1. 19-20: 25%

2. 20-21: 40%

3. 21-22: 50%

cannot put anything above 50% because for starters, its been 28 years...secondly and most importantly I do not know what recruits are being brought in for 21 and 22. Obviously 21 hinges on will there be someone to replace Eugene and a guy that will replace Baker after 21. Two big ifs and that is why I still feel as strongly as I did before that Pikiell must land a STRONG CLASS in 2020.

if it takes 6 years to make the NCAA tourney so be it...I can see 17-13/10-10 next year and then 18-12/10-10 being on the bubble and falling short.....year 6 21-9/12-8

It is going to be interesting to see how Pike schedules next season...that to me tips the hand on whether he thinks this is a NCAA team next season

 

[kcg88]

The last scholarship for 2019 (plus I still think one opens up) is so important. And obviously the 2020 class.

 

[bac2therac]

and I love the strong core of freshmen that is why I am so optimistic for 21-22, they are seniors if they all stick together....even though sometimes you end up losing one, who knows.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I may be overrating Eugene, but I think he is going to be VERY difficult to replace.

 

[bac2therac]

he will be but such is life in college basketball program...recruit recruit recruit

 

[RUChoppin]

Recruiting bigs for the 2020 class is going to make or break the long term development. In 2020-21, right now our bigs consist of Johnson and Doucoure, both RS Jrs. We need at least two bigs (6-8+, 240+) in the 2020 class that are able to step in as freshmen and perform at a high level.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

and I love the strong core of freshmen that is why I am so optimistic for 21-22, they are seniors if they all stick together....even though sometimes you end up losing one, who knows.

I'm hoping 1 or 2 of our Frosh are good enough to leave early for the pros before '21-22. That would be good problem to have imo.