Stats
| 2023 | Gavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks) | Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks) |
| Completion Percentage | 47.8% | 52.7% |
| Adjusted Completion Percentage | 58.0% | 66.2% |
| Big Time Throws | 7 (2.4% of throws) | 13 (4.2% of throws) |
| Drops | 14 (9.7%) | 25 (13.9%) |
| Average Time to Throw | 2.8 seconds | 2.98 seconds |
| Pressures | 78 (25.5% of dropbacks, 4.8% of pressures attributed to QB) | 112 (32.7% of dropbacks, 12.2% of pressures attributed to QB) |
| % of Pressures Turned into Sacks | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| Sacks | 14 (4.6% of dropbacks) | 22 (6.4% of dropbacks) |
| Scrambles | 18 (5.9% of dropbacks) | 26 (7.6% of dropbacks) |
| Rushing (sacks count against in CFB) | 122 carries (73.8% designed run rate) for 488 yards and 9 TDs | 74 carries (35.1% designed run rate) for 94 yards and 2 TDs |
| 1st Downs | 84 (27.5% of dropbacks) | 97 (28.4% of dropbacks) |
| Turnover Worthy Plays | 8 (2.5% of dropbacks) | 16 (4.5% of dropbacks) |
| 2022 | Gavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks) | Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks) |
| Completion Percentage | 44.1% | 54.1% |
| Adjusted Completion Percentage | 56.8% | 61.5% |
| Big Time Throws | 3 (2.0% of throws) | 4 (3.4% of throws) |
| Drops | 11 (14.7%) | 4 (6.3%) |
| Average Time to Throw | 2.96 | 2.85 |
| Pressures | 56 (33.7% of dropbacks, 14.6% of pressures attributed to QB) | 49 (37.4% of dropbacks, 10.5% of pressures attributed to QB) |
| % of Pressures Turned into Sacks | 23.2% | 14.3% |
| Sacks | 13 (7.8% of dropbacks) | 7 (5.3% of dropbacks) |
| Scrambles | 7 (4.2% of dropbacks) | 13 (9.9% of dropbacks) |
| Rushing (sacks count against in CFB) | 40 carries (50% designed run rate) for 63 yards and 0 TDs | 34 carries (41.2% designed run rate) for 140 yards and 1 TD |
| 1st Downs | 35 (21.1% of dropbacks) | 44 (33.6% of dropbacks) |
| Turnover Worthy Plays | 8 (4.6% of dropbacks) | 4 (2.9% of dropbacks |
| 2023 Passing Depth | Gavin Wimsatt (306 dropbacks) | Athan Kaliakmanis (342 dropbacks) |
| Deep | 9/32 (28.1%, 28.1% adj) for 278 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT | 18/44 (40.9%, 50% adj) for 510 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs |
| Intermediate | 34/87 (39.1%, 42.5% adj) for 553 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs | 32/79 (40.5%, 48.1% adj) for 518 yards, 6 TDs and 5 INTs |
| Short | 79/115 (68.7%, 75.7% adj) for 749 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT | 84/125 (67.2%, 78.4% adj) for 757 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs) |
| Behind LOS | 9/16 (56.3%, 75% adj) for 57 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT | 21/24 (87.5%, 91.7% adj) for 51 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs |
| 2022 Passing Depth | Gavin Wimsatt (166 dropbacks) | Athan Kaliakmanis (131 dropbacks) |
| Deep | 5/25 (25%, 30% adj) for 165 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs | 7/20 (35%, 35% adj) for 267 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs |
| Intermediate | 14/36 (38.9%, 47.2% adj) for 221 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs | 21/41 (51.2%, 56.1% adj) for 376 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs |
| Short | 30/50 (60%, 66% adj) for 330 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT | 26/36 (72.2%, 77.8% adj) for 265 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT |
| Behind LOS | 15/21 (71.4%, 81.0% adj) for 27 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs | 6/7 (85.7%, 85.7% adj) for 38 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs |
Analysis
There are a LOT of numbers and statistics laid out above, but I think it's helpful to have everything relevant laid out to compare the two players.Let's start with possibly the most argued about topic of the board the past few weeks, completition percentage. Neither Gavin Wimsatt or Athan Kaliakmanis were particularly accurate in either 2022 or 2023. Kaliakmanis was still quite a bit more accurate than Gavin when taking into account additional factors like pressure rate and drops in 2023.
Both Athan and Gavin saw improvements in both raw completion percentage and adjusted completition percentage from 2022 to 2023. But when looking into the numbers, that should've been expected for Gavin Wimsatt for a number of reasons. He saw his pressure rate drop (33.7% to 25.5%) and his drop rate fall (14.7% to 9.7%), which was due largely due to a vastly improved OL and due to Gavin improving his pocket presense (went from 14.8% of pressure attributed to him in 2022 to just 4.8% of pressures atrributed to him in 2023, 23.2% of pressures turned into sacks in 2022 to just 17.9% in 2023, sack rate from 7.8% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023 and his turnover worthy plays go from 4.6% to 2.5%). Gavin also went from 2.96 second time to throw to 2.8 seconds. Gavin also went from having essentially no help in the run game to the B1G leading rusher in Kyle Monangai.
Meanwhile, Athan saw his pressure rate fall slightly (37.4% to 32.7%) whille his drop rate skyrocketed (6.3% to 13.9%). Some of this can be attributed to small sample size, but it's clear the quality of pass catcher dropped for Minnesota, along with a drop in OL play. Athan saw his sack rate rise (5.3% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023), his rate of pressures turning into sacks jump (14.3% in 2022 to 19.8% in 2023), his time to throw going from 2.85 seconds to 2.98 and his turnover-worthy play rate go from 2.9% to 4.5%. Athan also went from having a 2x B1G rushing leader (Mohamed Ibrahim) to not having a RB break 600 yards in 2023.
There's also an intangible factor that can't be overlooked. Athan led Minnesota to four 4th Q comebacks in his career to Gavin's one in the same number of starts (17). Additionally, Minnesota trusted Athan to at least attempt to make comebacks, while Rutgers essentially surrendered when down late in games. This could be more of an indictment on coaching than the player, but still is worth highlighting.
Watch this game and tell me when Gavin has ever looked this good, especially considering the circumstances (4th career start as a RS FR in a night game in Madison for a bit rivalry game)
It's pretty clear that Athan Kaliakmanis will put the ball into harm's way more than Gavin Wimsatt will. But with that, comes far more big plays. Gavin had a big-time throw rate of 2% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023 while Athan had a 3.4% big-time throw rate in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023.
Passing Depth
Where Athan truly separates from Gavin is in the passing depth numbers, particularly the deep passing numbers. Athan was one of the best deep ball passers in the B1G in 2023 (only JJ McCarthy and Kyle McCord were better), while Gavin ranked 2nd to last (only behind Nebraska's Heinrich Haarberg). This was also a big jump for Athan from 2022 (35% adj on deep passes in 2022 to 50% adj in 2023) with a big jump in volume (20 attempts to 44) with Gavin seeing his deep passing numbers drop (30% adj to 28.1% adj) on similar volume (25 in 2022 to 32 in 2023).
Rushing
I know a lot has been made about Gavin's rushing prowess compared to Athan. Gavin had a designed run rate of 50% (20 rushes) in 2022 and 73.8% (90 rushes) in 2023 compared to Athan's 41.2% (14 rushes) in 2022 and 35.1% (26 rushes) in 2023. Some of those runs were massive plays for Gavin (IU run and VT run come to mind), but there were far more runs the defense was set up expecting. This led to stacked boxes which hurt the run game more than helped it.
Designed runs do not extend plays or create something out of nothing, it's a play that is set up for a QB to run which limits the improvisational/big play element of most QB runs. Athan has a significantly higher scramble rate than Gavin, with a 9.9% scramble rate in 2022 and a 7.6% rate in 2023 compared to Gavin's 4.2% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023.
Additionally, Gavin 4 of his 9 rushing TDs from 1 yard yard and 7 of 9 came from inside the 7 yard line despite having the B1G leading rusher in the backfield. Kyle Monangai only had 7 TDs on the season, with only 2 out of 7 of those TDs coming from inside the 10 yard line.
Closing
Based on all the data, I'd say that Gavin has made significant strides in pocket presence from 2022 to 2023. He's taken far fewer sacks and has put the ball in harm's way less often than Athan. But Athan is the better QB. He's demonstrated far more ability in the passing game, both statistically and through the eye test.
Athan somehow made significant strides in many areas in 2023 despite a drastically WORSE situation from 2022 to 2023, while Gavin only made very small improvements in most areas despite a drastically BETTER situation from 2022 to 2023.
Athan makes far more big throws and is more accurate, despite less help both along the OL and pass catchers. I think if we had Athan in 2023 there's no doubt we would have had more wins, between 7-9 in my opinion. If Kirk Ciarocca wants him, I'm all for it. I trust him and Greg in their decision on this. I have little doubt that if Athan transferred here he would win an open QB competition.
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