To a degree, but generally I think it is overrated as a predictor. OSU was not humiliated against Oregon in Oct. They lost by 1 point with multiple lead changes. Talent is more important. I’m not a gambler but I pay attention to Las Vegas. There is a reason OSU has consistently been one of two or three teams favored to win the NC throughout the season. Most talent evaluators think they have the most talented roster in college football.
A team with sparse talent can wallop a more talented team under certain circumstances.
Indeed what makes the upset work is that the talented team is sleepwalking thinking they have the win locked..
I learned that lesson in high school when my weak team beat an undefeated team favored (NYT) to win title.
Before the game I (captain) told team that we were playing a team of rich kids (they were) that thought we were ghetto trash.
I said we needed to go out kick their butts.
Alas even I was shocked about what my scrubby team went and did.
Before 1st was even over, our "special ed" 170lb DT benching 310, broke the ribs of Harvard bound, All-County QB.
Everything snowballed after that as we pushed them up and down the field and stuffed their offense like they = JV.
We only won three games that year
It taught me why politicians can easily use resentment to get votes.
As for RU, the beatdown UConn gave RU in 2011 was example of sleepwalking team expecting a win (and share BE title)
From first series, UConn (4-6) was manhandling an RU team (8-3) that would lose 40-22 (RU getting 12 points in 4thQ)
Same thing happened at SU playing Marrone for first time.
I'm sure Oregon felt good coming into today's game but OSU was primed for revenge
RU v UConn 2011
Game summary of the Connecticut Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights NCAAF game, final score 40-22, from November 26, 2011 on ESPN.
www.espn.com