OT: last chance for a bit of snow (3/23)? Warm/less snowy pattern likely thru end of Feb
- Thread starter RU848789
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How so? They were correct on where an inch or more might fall Poconos and higher elevations in NW NJ and had snow showers for most NW of 95 and especially N of 78 with "little or no accumulation" which means a dusting to a coating at most (1/4"), which is about what many got. Nobody outside of the higher elevations in Sussex, NW Morris and NW Warren (and the Poconos) got more than 1/2".
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi
We were in Pompton Plains and it was snowing as we left at 915ishSnow still falling.
First off, he wasn't referring to me, as I'm not a met and secondly, I said, "Maybe an inch on colder surfaces in the higher elevations in the Poconos and NW Sussex and N of 84," where the N of 84 part implies in general, not just for areas not at higher elevations. You know, I actually tried to provide a little bit of detail vs. your incredibly informative "snow tonight" post. The inch or so did extend to the higher elevations in parts of Morris and the rest of Sussex, but then again, I wasn't even trying to make a detailed post - just letting the vast majority of folks know that any snow impact, especially on roads, wasn't happening.
Not sure what the NWS is seeing, but they're calling for 1-2" of snow/sleet late Wednesday into early Thursday for areas N of 78, with <1" towards 95 and nada SE of 95 and S of 195. Their maps came out before today's 12Z runs, in which only the GFS and UK show a couple of inches of snow/sleet, mostly N of 80 with maybe an inch N of 78, while the rest of the models are showing just about all rain, except for the Poconos, far NW NJ and some areas N of 84. There's also some risk for freezing rain NW of 95 (and N of 78) and well inland, especially on Thursday morning as warm air moves in aloft, but with cold surface temps in those locations. Not even worth posting the NWS maps (or starting a thread) IMO, as I would think they'd be reduced with this afternoon's package.
Some indications of a more substantial winter event this weekend for inland areas (and could be huge for the ski resorts in NY/New England, i.e. the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, but probably not the Poconos and maybe on the Catskills - close call on sleet/rain for them) and a small possibility of some snow for the 95 corridor, but the way this winter has gone, in this pattern, rain is much more likely. Just not enough cold air for the 95 corridor and coast for snow...
Some indications of a more substantial winter event this weekend for inland areas (and could be huge for the ski resorts in NY/New England, i.e. the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, but probably not the Poconos and maybe on the Catskills - close call on sleet/rain for them) and a small possibility of some snow for the 95 corridor, but the way this winter has gone, in this pattern, rain is much more likely. Just not enough cold air for the 95 corridor and coast for snow...
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As expected, the NWS significantly cut back on snowfall forecasts for late Weds/early Thurs, with an inch or so of accumulating snow/sleet now confined to areas NW of the 80/287 intersection and north of the Tappan Zee and maybe 1-2" possible in the higher elevations of NW NJ, the Poconos, and generally N of 84. Maybe a coating of sleet/snow a bit N of 78 up to 80 before changing to rain and essentially rain everywhere else and a fair amount of it (1-1.5"). And another 1" or more of rain Friday.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
For this winter, I'm starting to rethink my separate thread for each storm position. With all of these wiffle crap little events, what's the point of a new thread for each one? I don't feel strongly either way.
Maybe a pinned "Fantasy Snowstorm Thread"?
And the NWS cut snowfall amounts for late Weds/early Thursday even more with <1" of sleet/snow, possibly followed by up to 01" of freezing rain now forecast for areas N and W of 80/287 (generally the Poconos/Sussex County, N Morris and NW Passaic) in NJ and N of 287/95 in the Hudson Valley/CT. Areas south of 80 and especially south of 78 (could see a little frozen precip south of 80 but north of 78) should be all rain, with an inch or so falling through Thursday - and another inch or so of rain everywhere through Friday - it's gonna be wet. This is what I had expected the forecast to be yesterday, based on the models. However, the ski resorts in NY/VT/NH/ME should be getting 6-12" of snow or more.
There looks to be a greater chance for wintry precip on Sunday with some models showing a few inches of snow possible, but we've seen this movie before this winter with long range (>5 days out) snow showing up on some models, but not panning out, due to the generally warm pattern; for this event, other models are showing mostly rain or the system mostly missing us out to sea. Worth watching, but not worrying about at this point.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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I kind of like what they've done on 33andrain, with a general thread on winter weather threats in the long range (5-15 days out) for people to speculate on what's coming and the crazy fantasy model runs, with individual storm threads not started until a threat is within 5 days. And for the piddly little events they don't start new threads, but still cover them in the long range thread. Kind of late for this winter, but might do that next winter.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Part of the fun of weather threads is when someone takes one panel from 384 hours out and freaks the eff out (or has a weather-gasm over it)...it is delightful entertainment!!!
It's hilarious to see the gyrations on the weather boards over Day 10-16, let alone Day 6, lol, especially right now with desperation setting in. Do you post on any or at least read sometimes?
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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I don’t...I look at a lot of weather stuff but limit my entertainment mostly to here...I remember a GFS run a few years back that had basically a cat 4 smacking NYC on that last panel and some took it and ran with it...of course it never came to be and changed like 20 times but it was entertaining!:Wink:
NWS put up winter weather advisories for Berks/Lehigh/Upper Bucks/Hunterdon/Somerset for up to 0.1" of freezing rain accretion late tonight into early Thursday morning, with temps likely at or just below freezing at the onset of this coming storm. The advisories are for up to 0.2" of freezing rain for the Poconos/Warren/Morris/Sussex/W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley/interior CT (with a bit of sleet possible too). It's very possible that the southern parts of the advisory counties, i.e., south of 78, will see no freezing rain, plus with the changeover to rain before sunrise on Thursday along and south of 78, impacts should be fairly minimal; north of 78, icing could linger into the morning rush hour and be an issue for untreated roads until 8-9 am.
After that things warm up quite a bit and the entire area should see 1-3" of rain between tonight and Friday morning, with the heaviest of the rain being Thursday night and Friday morning and the 2-3" amounts most likely along and SE of the 95 corridor to the coast. Could be some minor urban and stream flooding. No coastal flooding impacts (or wind impacts) are expected, as this isn't really a nor'easter (track is inland of the coast). FYI, the storm for Sunday is looking likely to mostly miss us out to sea and the warm and probably wet pattern still looks to continue through mid-Feb and possibly beyond that.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Edit: changed thread title from "OT: Coastal Storm for Sat 2/1 a miss; warm and less snowy pattern likely to persist thru mid-Feb" to current title. Really didn't see the need for a new thread for a minor icing event and rain (have mercy on me, lol)...
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70 and hazy with a refreshing breeze in Charleston. Azaleas will be popping soon . Just as I will probably head to the desert where it will be warm and dry .Winter is a Rocky mountain Midwestern New England phenomenon. Just how it should be.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Hey RU#s...it snowed here in San Antonio. It did not stick but the natives freaked!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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I was in a slightly warmer area of the country for this, about 8 months removed from finding an Exit to live off of.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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153. And my origin was Houston, so no blizzard for me!
#12 on the NYC list with 17.7" - one of my favorite storms as a kid (was 15 and used to keep weather records, but only in the winter when it could snow, lol) in SNJ (Gloucester County), as we didn't get any changeover to sleet/rain, as we often did in big storms. I recall getting around 14".
4-8" in swaths of TX/OK, as I'm sure you know - big storm for them...El Paso with over 2", more than DC, Balt or Philly have had this winter...
It's so bad here you are reporting snow in El Paso?? It just not getting better for the snow birds.
Someone needs to make a Punk Rock version of this.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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I think half the city posted videos of flakes falling...though this morning a few cars had about 1/4 inch of graupel and sleet...I made a slush ball!
for a few hours it was much colder here than where my brother is in Rhode Island
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