A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Not the meteorological point of my post...April snows, while annoying are mostly pointless in NJ
OT: last chance for a bit of snow (3/23)? Warm/less snowy pattern likely thru end of Feb
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Last night's NAM was certainly overdone, as suspected, but now we have fairly good model consensus on a 2-4/3-6" event for much of inland SC, central/eastern NC and SE VA, with some areas possibly getting up to 8" of snow from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Impressive storm for the SE. DT's map seems fairly reasonable and the only one I could easily find for the whole region.The generally warm, progressive (flow from the Pacific to here, without major troughs bringing in cold air) pattern looks to continue through the end of February, although there are signs of a possible pattern change in 9-10 days towards a colder pattern with some chances of snow, although we've seen several "false alarms" at 9-10 days out already this winter, so not worth banking on yet.
And here's the real kick in the head for the snow-starved northeast (except for northern NY/New England, which are doing fine, but skiers don't go there as much when it doesn't snow in the big cities): some models are showing a major snowstorm for parts of NC/SC and SE VA late Thursday into Friday. The latest NAM is below and the GFS is similar, but the Euro/UK aren't on board, so this is not a done deal yet, but if it happens, it would be a major story.
After a couple of cold/dry days, we're back to warmth this weekend and most of next week, although there's a small chance of some wintry weather next Thursday, especially inland, but way too far out to forecast anything and the way this winter is going, it'll likely not deliver. Might be some colder conditions by late Feb/early March, but then the clock is ticking on snow for this area as the seasons start to change.
Edit: changed the thread title from "OT: Freezing Rain N/W Tonight (2/5) then lots of rain; warm/less snowy pattern likely thru mid-Feb" to the current title.
And some have moved to the Carolinas for milder winter weather.[roll]Last night's NAM was certainly overdone, as suspected, but now we have fairly good model consensus on a 2-4/3-6" event for much of inland SC, central/eastern NC and SE VA, with some areas possibly getting up to 8" of snow from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Impressive storm for the SE. DT's map seems fairly reasonable and the only one I could easily find for the whole region.
After a couple of cold/dry days, we're back to warmth this weekend and most of next week, although there's a small chance of some wintry weather next Thursday, especially inland, but way too far out to forecast anything and the way this winter is going, it'll likely not deliver. Might be some colder conditions by late Feb/early March, but then the clock is ticking on snow for this area as the seasons start to change.
Edit: changed the thread title from "OT: Freezing Rain N/W Tonight (2/5) then lots of rain; warm/less snowy pattern likely thru mid-Feb" to the current title.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
You know it's been a bad snow season when we're getting in-depth analysis of a Maybe Storm happening 500 miles away.
Next up - A full breakdown of conditions in Eagle, Alaska!
lol...lazy? Not really. Suffering from paralyzing snow deprivation depression? Guilty as charged.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
I should post the video of the snowfall here in San Antonio...it wasn’t much by NJ standards but I made several slush balls out of it
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
I should post the video of the snowfall here in San Antonio...it wasn’t much by NJ standards but I made several slush balls out of it
need some Paxil?
I've actually "chased" snowstorms a few times in the past, driving up to NW NJ to find the rain/snow line and then going well beyond that to see the serious snow. Did that one time in '92, iirc, when it was pouring rain in all of CNJ, but the snow/rain line was reported to be near Netcong, where 80/206 meet and sure enough that's about where it was. I then drove about 10 miles north of there, through ever increasing snow depth, until I got to Newton, where there was close to a foot on the ground and 206 was becoming pretty dicey. I then loaded up the hatchback with snow, drove home, and then made a snowman on the hood of my wife's car (the rain had mostly stopped by then) and she thought that was very romantic, so I was "rewarded" well, lol.
For now, I just went back to work at ~10 hrs/week at my old company, working as a consultant of sorts on some of the "special projects" I was working on right before I left (and being paid very nicely for it), so I don't have total freedom, lol. It's kind of cool, though, to go back and get at least a bit of that social interaction, which I always liked, but also not being the "owner" of these problems allows me to leave it behind, instead of the old days, where I'd still be working/emailing while at home after 50-60 hrs/week at work. We'll see how much I like it a few months from now, but for now, it's pretty, pretty good.
And lately, I would've had to go way north to find the snow and I do intend to do that one of these days, but would rather do it for a monster lake-effect snowstorm and they just haven't been that impressive this winter up there, so will likely have to wait for next winter. On the message boards there are dozens of people who "chase" winter storms, although not nearly as many who chase hurricanes or tornadoes.
It has been snowing in Asheville since 10 am. All city and county schools closed today. My office is closing at 2. The grass is now covered with the white stuff
Soon to be a Netflix documentary staring Metuchen’s top meteorologist!
I doubt you'll see daytime snow accumulations on paved surfaces with the higher sun angle and temps just above freezing - unless you get very heavy rates, which aren't forecasted. Further east towards the coast, the transition to snow will be mostly after dark, so the indirect sunlight won't be an issue and accumulations could be 2-4/3-6" in parts of eastern NC/SE VA. That's more than they get in most winters in some of those locations (especially near the coast).
Hugo. It made landfall in South Carolina. I stopped in Salisbury, MD and topped off the tanks, then went as far as Carolina Beach, NC before turning around.
It wasn't all that spectacular, really. I was hoping that I could visualize some of the structure, but from 10,000' and about 120 miles from the center the outer bands were basically just... ya know... clouds. Winds at 10k were maybe 40 to 50 knots. Some turbulence, but no worse than your average hot summer day.
Yep, could imagine that - and Hugo was an incredible storm (strongest ever north of FL in the Atlantic Basin) and had numerous tornadoes to the N/NE of the center, so probably going much closer could've been pretty dangerous from a convection/turbulence perspective. A for effort at least...
The disadvantage being, of course, the lack of altitude. A proper turbine-powered aircraft and you can get up on top of it, and get a lot closer. In a piston single you're basically just running into shitty weather until the weather gets shitty enough to be an annoyance.
I needed the bragging rights, since I was less than 10 years removed from my stint at Keesler, AFB. I knew a couple of guys who flew with the 53rd WRS and they were always mouthing off.
I was in Charleston for 5 weeks. I had 80 degrees. I had 25:degrees. I had sweet southern days . I had a lot of clouds and some rain. In Oxford Mississippi now freezing my ass off. On to Arkansas. Cold there. On to New Mexico.. Really cold there. Scottsdale? Nice .70's .San Diego? Well you know that one.:Sly:
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Cold is so relative...it is 47 here in SA but raining some and windy...to the natives, that’s parka time...mittens, gloves, scarves and hats...my NY winter snow blood has yet to thin out enough...so I’m still in shorts...a second Texas summer should change that
I'm from Norfolk originally, so seeing social media posts from friends down there about the snow are pretty funny after 15 years of NJ winters under my belt.
C'mon, man up and take that thing right into the eye of the hurricane, just like Colonel Duckworth did in 1943 in the first ever plane flown into a hurricane off the coast of Galveston on purpose (and on a bet with a Brit) - it was a single engine plane, lol. All kidding aside, I had never actually read about this guy before - great story!
https://www.cdispatch.com/opinions/article.asp?aid=60542
I did a 2 week TDY at Keesler in July the year after Camille and am not sure how anyone could stand it down there. Talk about oppressive!
I was spared the worst - I got there the first week in October and left the 3rd week in June. The weather weirdness wasn't anywhere near as bad as Lackland from August to October. There was one day, right before the end of Basic Training, where we woke up to snow and by mid-afternoon it was over 90. That place is f*cked up.
Fortunately, never went to Lackland. Keesler weather was much worse than Tyndall. My other USAF weather experiences were just fkn cold!
Sorry, but I needed a break from 24/7 CV2. Last chance, probably, for snow this season, on Monday 3/23. We're still 4 days out, but seeing decent model consensus on some accumulating snow not too far NW of the 95 corridor (3-4+") and maybe an inch or two even from Philly to NYC. Problem is we've seen this movie a few times this winter, where something looks promising and the threat dies or more likely becomes rain, given the warm pattern and dominant storm track being inland, bringing warm air and rain to us.
Not worth a new thread yet, since it could be nothing or very little, especially with daytime snow in late March, which often means white rain. Given that there's some hope that spring will help blunt the coronavirus, this is the first time in memory where I'm rooting for warmth and sunshine over snow. Alert the media. But I won't complain if we get a one-day cold snap with a few inches of snow that melts quickly.
On the bright side, it could hit 80F tomorrow in some places...with some thunderstorms possible
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Not worth a new thread yet, since it could be nothing or very little, especially with daytime snow in late March, which often means white rain. Given that there's some hope that spring will help blunt the coronavirus, this is the first time in memory where I'm rooting for warmth and sunshine over snow. Alert the media. But I won't complain if we get a one-day cold snap with a few inches of snow that melts quickly.
On the bright side, it could hit 80F tomorrow in some places...with some thunderstorms possible
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
