Really good write-up by DT/WxRisk, which he titled, "Why This Winter Has Sucked for the Eastern US." He goes through the various "teleconnection patterns" that heavily influence our winter weather in this area and shows how the teleconnections which favor mild and less snowy conditions for our area (+EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO - these are all fairly well explained in the link) have been in place since early December and look to remain in place for at least the next 2-3 weeks as I mentioned above.
As he readily admits, his winter forecast has already busted, as has the winter forecast for many pros and amateurs who try to do these (I still think pattern forecasts beyond a few weeks are useless). And in places like the weather boards, where most "forecasters" (even the pros) have a bias towards snow, the majority of winter forecasts are more often for snowy than not snow, so in a winter like this, most of these forecasters get it wrong.
Briefly, this teleconnection combination leads to a persistent ridge (high pressure) in the jet stream over Alaska with resulting clockwise flow driving the jet stream down into the western 1/3 of the CONUS, establishing a deep and persistent trough (low pressure) in the jet stream over the western half of the CONUS, bringing in cold air for the western half of the US (the cold air is to the north of the jet stream) and lots of snow, as a result. The jet stream then jogs back up well to the northwest of our area, forming another ridge over the SE CONUS and the clockwise flow around that brings generally warmer than normal SW flow to our area.
Now, every day isn't like this, but most days are, leading to warm and less snowy conditions, overall, for the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. It can still snow, usually in overrunning events, where a cold front comes through and then moisture runs up and over the cold air from the SW, leading to snow to rain (or just rain) for the big cities and coast with snow to mix well inland and all snow typically only north of 84 or even 90, which is why places like Albany and parts of interior NY/New England have had above average snowfall, as they can be warmer than normal (which is still usually below 32F) and still get snow.
So, it's unlikely we'll see much if any snow through mid-February (with next Friday still having some shot at snow to rain) and it's possible the pattern will persist through the end of the month. However, it's rare for a pattern like this to persist for an entire winter, so March could end up being colder/snowier than normal, as has often been the case in recent years. That's not a forecast, though - we'll just have to see.
Changed the thread title from "OT: Coastal Storm for Saturday, 2/1 (now looks to miss us - out-to-sea)" to current title...
