OT: Minor Snowfall for Most (except moderate N of 80 towards 84 w/some icing) Sat (2/15) pm, Followed by Heavy Rain for Everyone

[RU848789]

This looks to be a fairly minor snowfall Saturday afternoon/evening for everyone south of 80, as per the NWS snowfall map below, which is showing <1" south of 78 with 1-2" from 78 to 80. However it's showing 2-4" N of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY and there's also the threat of a period of freezing rain when warm air aloft surges north. Any snow should change to rain from south to north Saturday evening with 1" or so of much needed rain for just about everyone in the region through Sunday morning as warm air surges into the area associated with a low taking aim at NJ or just N of us (that's always a warm track even if it starts off cold); temps should reach the 50s SE of 95 towards the coast on Sunday, but it may remain in the low 40s for areas N of 80 towards 84. Extended icing, though, is possible for areas towards and N of 84, i.e., Sussex, the Poconos and the mid-Hudson Valley before the changeover to rain. The first link below for the NWS snowfall map and the 2nd for the AmericanWx discussion.

It should be noted, however that there's a lot of disagreement among the models so far with many of the models showing a bit more front-end snow than the NWS map, i.e., 1-3" from 276/195 to 80 and 2-4" N of 80 (except the Euro, which is quite similar to the NWS forecast and has been doing quite well this winter - did great on Tuesday and on 2/8). Let's see what the 12Z models say before worrying about getting more snow than the NWS is showing. Also, FYI, I'm going to try to keep future weather posts shorter with just the key highlights and not all of the details and model analysis, as it just takes too much time, especially for these mixed precip events, which are so difficult to forecast and have so many possible outcomes for so many locations (we'll see how that works out lol). The pure snow events are way easier to discuss, like Tuesday's.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/31/

 

[bac2therac]

this really is scraping the bottom for a thread

 

[DJ Spanky]

this really is scraping the bottom for a thread

I think we need to start threads for when we think there's gonna be sunshine in February.

 

[bac2therac]

remember the wednesday night event was modelled for a few inches too and then when we got to the event nothing happened...now this event bullish on the models for thump of snow to rain, lets watch it change in the next 48 hours

 

[RU848789]

remember the wednesday night event was modelled for a few inches too and then when we got to the event nothing happened...now this event bullish on the models for thump of snow to rain, lets watch it change in the next 48 hours

Yes, but remember I wasn't even going to start a thread for that one, but you thought someone should, so I did. I was never bullish on that one at all.

 

[RU848789]

This looks to be a fairly minor snowfall Saturday afternoon/evening for everyone south of 80, as per the NWS snowfall map below, which is showing <1" south of 78 with 1-2" from 78 to 80. However it's showing 2-4" N of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY and there's also the threat of a period of freezing rain when warm air aloft surges north. Any snow should change to rain from south to north Saturday evening with 1" or so of much needed rain for just about everyone in the region through Sunday morning as warm air surges into the area associated with a low taking aim at NJ or just N of us (that's always a warm track even if it starts off cold); temps should reach the 50s SE of 95 towards the coast on Sunday, but it may remain in the low 40s for areas N of 80 towards 84. Extended icing, though, is possible for areas towards and N of 84, i.e., Sussex, the Poconos and the mid-Hudson Valley before the changeover to rain. The first link below for the NWS snowfall map and the 2nd for the AmericanWx discussion.

It should be noted, however that there's a lot of disagreement among the models so far with many of the models showing a bit more front-end snow than the NWS map, i.e., 1-3" from 276/195 to 80 and 2-4" N of 80 (except the Euro, which is quite similar to the NWS forecast and has been doing quite well this winter - did great on Tuesday and on 2/8). Let's see what the 12Z models say before worrying about getting more snow than the NWS is showing. Also, FYI, I'm going to try to keep future weather posts shorter with just the key highlights and not all of the details and model analysis, as it just takes too much time, especially for these mixed precip events, which are so difficult to forecast and have so many possible outcomes for so many locations (we'll see how that works out lol). The pure snow events are way easier to discuss, like Tuesday's.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/31/

Well, unless the models are all out to lunch, expect the NWS to increase snowfall forecasts a bit across the board as every model now has at least 2" along and N of 78 with some having 3-5" N of 78 and beyond, prior to any mix/changeover to rain and most of the models now have 1-2" from 276/195 up to 78 and even the Euro has more front-end snow than earlier runs with 2" along 78 and 1" from about New Hope to Perth Amboy. All of any snow that falls will likely be washed away by Sunday morning, except maybe N of 80, but this storm could still be a travel problem for Saturday afternoon/evening for many. But this forecast could change significantly also - the previous two mixed events ended up having more sleet than forecast 24-48 hours in advance and that could happen here too.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Well, unless the models are all out to lunch, expect the NWS to increase snowfall forecasts a bit across the board as every model now has at least 2" along and N of 78 with some having 3-5" N of 78 and beyond, prior to any mix/changeover to rain and most of the models now have 1-2" from 276/195 up to 78 and even the Euro has more front-end snow than earlier runs with 2" along 78 and 1" from about New Hope to Perth Amboy. All of any snow that falls will likely be washed away by Sunday morning, except maybe N of 80, but this storm could still be a travel problem for Saturday afternoon/evening for many. But this forecast could change significantly also - the previous two mixed events ended up having more sleet than forecast 24-48 hours in advance and that could happen here too.

Flying into Newark at 6:30pm on Saturday, this sucks.

 

[rurichdog]

Trenton Snowhole strikes again

 

[RU848789]

Flying into Newark at 6:30pm on Saturday, this sucks.

Well, on the plus side looks like temps will be borderline from 1 pm to 7 pm meaning light to moderate snow might only be accumulating on colder surfaces, not paved ones, at least until sunset and if that's the case airports probably wouldn't be impacted that much.

 

[RU848789]

This looks to be a fairly minor snowfall Saturday afternoon/evening for everyone south of 80, as per the NWS snowfall map below, which is showing <1" south of 78 with 1-2" from 78 to 80. However it's showing 2-4" N of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY and there's also the threat of a period of freezing rain when warm air aloft surges north. Any snow should change to rain from south to north Saturday evening with 1" or so of much needed rain for just about everyone in the region through Sunday morning as warm air surges into the area associated with a low taking aim at NJ or just N of us (that's always a warm track even if it starts off cold); temps should reach the 50s SE of 95 towards the coast on Sunday, but it may remain in the low 40s for areas N of 80 towards 84. Extended icing, though, is possible for areas towards and N of 84, i.e., Sussex, the Poconos and the mid-Hudson Valley before the changeover to rain. The first link below for the NWS snowfall map and the 2nd for the AmericanWx discussion.

It should be noted, however that there's a lot of disagreement among the models so far with many of the models showing a bit more front-end snow than the NWS map, i.e., 1-3" from 276/195 to 80 and 2-4" N of 80 (except the Euro, which is quite similar to the NWS forecast and has been doing quite well this winter - did great on Tuesday and on 2/8). Let's see what the 12Z models say before worrying about getting more snow than the NWS is showing. Also, FYI, I'm going to try to keep future weather posts shorter with just the key highlights and not all of the details and model analysis, as it just takes too much time, especially for these mixed precip events, which are so difficult to forecast and have so many possible outcomes for so many locations (we'll see how that works out lol). The pure snow events are way easier to discuss, like Tuesday's.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/31/

The NWS has increased snowfall amounts to 1-2" starting from a line from about Trenton to Keyport to about 78 and increased snowfall amounts to 2-4" north of 78 to 80 (and NW of 287), generally speaking, as per the discussion below, but still waiting for the updated snowfall map; NWS-NYC did update their map with 1-2" for the southern half of NYC/LI and 2-3" for NENJ (Union up to Bergen), northern NYC/LI, but waiting on the regional map before posting any maps. Will post an updated map when available. Areas N of 80 and especially up towards 84 could get 1/4" of ice accretion on top of several inches of snow and much less rain (but should still get some), as temps will stay colder up there.

Edit - NWS map finally updated showing the snowfall increases across the board.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

To start the day Saturday, a large area of low pressure will be
centered near Oklahoma with the system`s warm front extending well
north and east into Indiana and Kentucky. As the warm front
approaches, expect clouds to quickly lower and thicken with
precipitation developing over the area west to east most likely
through the early to mid afternoon timeframe. This is a slightly
later onset than previous thinking as it will take some time for dry
air in the low levels to become saturated enough for precip. While
the inland track of the low will ultimately put the area on the
system`s warm side, indications are there will be enough cold air at
the onset for a front end "thump" of snow that could affect areas
even as far south as the I-95 corridor. As such, expect that the
urban corridor will see precipitation start as snow Saturday
afternoon with the potential for an inch or two of accumulation
before a change to rain occurs here from south to north through the
late afternoon into the evening. Farther north, there will be
greater concerns for wintry precip lasting further into Saturday
night. Getting up towards the I-78 corridor, expect snow to mix with
and change to sleet and freezing rain into Saturday evening with the
potential for several hours of a wintry mix before an eventual
change to rain. It is this zone and areas northward where 2 to 4
inches of snow and sleet is expected with the potential for a tenth
to a quarter in of ice accretion to follow.

Heading into Sunday, all areas should become rain with rain becoming
more showery in nature as much of the area gets into the system`s
warm sector. This will allow highs to get into the 50s to even some
low 60s across southern parts of the forecast area while our far
northern zones (southern Poconos and NW NJ) will only see highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

 

[WhiteBus]

If the snow is mixed in with the rain Saturday afternoon there is zero chance of anything sticking on anything. Temps aren't going below 35 degrees in Philly or Trenton.

 

[RU848789]

If the snow is mixed in with the rain Saturday afternoon there is zero chance of anything sticking on anything. Temps aren't going below 35 degrees in Philly or Trenton.

Agreed, I'd be very surprised to see much if any accumulating snow south of 276/195 and even north of there to about 78, borderline temps without heavy rates during daylight will make snow accumulation difficult, except on colder surfaces.

 

[bac2therac]

how is it going to stick beyond grassy surfaces with lighter rates and temps forecasted at least for me a few notched over 32.

 

[RU848789]

how is it going to stick beyond grassy surfaces with lighter rates and temps forecasted at least for me a few notched over 32.

Did you read my post right above yours? It's likely only going to accumulate on grass/colder surfaces, especially during daylight, south of 78, where temps are likely going to be 33-34F. Unless a couple of the snowier/colder models are correct, which have temps of 31-32F for much of the time until 7-8 pm. As a snow lover, I don't really care if it doesn't accumulate on paved surfaces - grass is fine for me as I just like seeing snow.

 

[Section124]

North of 84 is still showing 9+ inches on Sunday. Vermont is showing 18-24” depending on location. My ski week in VT is looking great for the week of 2/24. 😃

 

[RU848789]

North of 84 is still showing 9+ inches on Sunday. Vermont is showing 18-24” depending on location. My ski week in VT is looking great for the week of 2/24. 😃

Yep, this is a big storm for the Catskills and every ski resort north of there in NY/New England. And if 2/20 turns out to be a big snowstorm, which is quite possible, you may have picked the best week of the year...

 

[RU848789]

The NWS has increased snowfall amounts to 1-2" starting from a line from about Trenton to Keyport to about 78 and increased snowfall amounts to 2-4" north of 78 to 80 (and NW of 287), generally speaking, as per the discussion below, but still waiting for the updated snowfall map; NWS-NYC did update their map with 1-2" for the southern half of NYC/LI and 2-3" for NENJ (Union up to Bergen), northern NYC/LI, but waiting on the regional map before posting any maps. Will post an updated map when available. Areas N of 80 and especially up towards 84 could get 1/4" of ice accretion on top of several inches of snow and much less rain (but should still get some), as temps will stay colder up there.

Edit - NWS map finally updated showing the snowfall increases across the board.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

To start the day Saturday, a large area of low pressure will be
centered near Oklahoma with the system`s warm front extending well
north and east into Indiana and Kentucky. As the warm front
approaches, expect clouds to quickly lower and thicken with
precipitation developing over the area west to east most likely
through the early to mid afternoon timeframe. This is a slightly
later onset than previous thinking as it will take some time for dry
air in the low levels to become saturated enough for precip. While
the inland track of the low will ultimately put the area on the
system`s warm side, indications are there will be enough cold air at
the onset for a front end "thump" of snow that could affect areas
even as far south as the I-95 corridor. As such, expect that the
urban corridor will see precipitation start as snow Saturday
afternoon with the potential for an inch or two of accumulation
before a change to rain occurs here from south to north through the
late afternoon into the evening. Farther north, there will be
greater concerns for wintry precip lasting further into Saturday
night. Getting up towards the I-78 corridor, expect snow to mix with
and change to sleet and freezing rain into Saturday evening with the
potential for several hours of a wintry mix before an eventual
change to rain. It is this zone and areas northward where 2 to 4
inches of snow and sleet is expected with the potential for a tenth
to a quarter in of ice accretion to follow.

Heading into Sunday, all areas should become rain with rain becoming
more showery in nature as much of the area gets into the system`s
warm sector. This will allow highs to get into the 50s to even some
low 60s across southern parts of the forecast area while our far
northern zones (southern Poconos and NW NJ) will only see highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

NWS updated their forecast snowfall map and nudged accumulations up a bit across the board vs. 4 pm yesterday, with the 1" line now being from about Philly to Belmar, the 2" line being from about New Hope to Perth Amboy and 2-4" from that line to just north of 80 and a bit more north of 80, where there is the risk of 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain before the changeover to rain early on Sunday up there.

Everyone in the region will change over to rain with most of our area that gets 1" or more of snow (south of 80) changing over by early/mid-evening - about 1-1.5" of much needed rain is expected through Sunday afternoon, as per the map below, which should wash away any snow from this storm, especially with temps making it into the 50s by Sunday at noon south of 276/195 and into the 40s north of there up to 84.

Note that travel conditions will likely be challenging N of 78 Sat afternoon/evening with temps in the 30-32F range, while travel conditions south of 78 likely won't be that bad with temps 32-34F, which should limit accumulations to colder surfaces except during periods of heavier snowfall. This is also why I'm not particularly bullish on the snow for this storm: the NWS forecasts 2.5" of snow for Metuchen, but I'll be surprised to make it to even 2".

https://www.weather.gov/phi

 

[T2Kplus20]

this really is scraping the bottom for a thread

+1
Even pathetic for Numbers standards.

 

[DJ Spanky]

This gives me a great idea: could we have the NWS do a map of the tailgating lots at Rutgers along with an Expected Liquid Consumption graphic for each home game?

 

[Doteman]

I appreciate this thread, I have to travel from Piscataway to Brick and back tomorrow afternoon/early evening, keep em coming Numbers.

 

[RU848789]

The 12Z models were fairly similar to earlier runs with some getting snowier, like the Euro and some getting less snowy, like the NAM and the rest fairly similar to previous runs. I don't see anything that would likely cause forecasters/NWS to change their forecasts for snow, appreciably.

 

[WhiteBus]

This gives me a great idea: could we have the NWS do a map of the tailgating lots at Rutgers along with an Expected Liquid Consumption graphic for each home game?

Brilliant idea. I can get a lot of NIL money from this. I can have each lot bid on my presence to help secure the most liquids consumption in any lot I'm in! They must also provide my liquid of choice! $$ 🍺 🍺 🍺

 

[RU848789]

I appreciate this thread, I have to travel from Piscataway to Brick and back tomorrow afternoon/early evening, keep em coming Numbers.

Thanks and I highly doubt any roads other than maybe side streets will have any snow on them (should just be wet) in the Middlesex County area and I can almost guarantee there will be no accumulating snow down in Brick.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Brilliant idea. I can get a lot of NIL money from this. I can have each lot bid on my presence to help secure the most liquids consumption in any lot I'm in! They must also provide my liquid of choice! $$ 🍺 🍺 🍺

Cool, we'll make sure to keep the Black Lot stocked with plenty of mint tea.

 

[WhiteBus]

Cool, we'll make sure to keep the Black Lot stocked with plenty of mint tea.

Ummm the Black Lot will never win with that attitude!! Mint tea? Are you trying to clean the Port-O-Johns??

 

[RU848789]

NWS updated their forecast snowfall map and nudged accumulations up a bit across the board vs. 4 pm yesterday, with the 1" line now being from about Philly to Belmar, the 2" line being from about New Hope to Perth Amboy and 2-4" from that line to just north of 80 and a bit more north of 80, where there is the risk of 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain before the changeover to rain early on Sunday up there.

Everyone in the region will change over to rain with most of our area that gets 1" or more of snow (south of 80) changing over by early/mid-evening - about 1-1.5" of much needed rain is expected through Sunday afternoon, as per the map below, which should wash away any snow from this storm, especially with temps making it into the 50s by Sunday at noon south of 276/195 and into the 40s north of there up to 84.

Note that travel conditions will likely be challenging N of 78 Sat afternoon/evening with temps in the 30-32F range, while travel conditions south of 78 likely won't be that bad with temps 32-34F, which should limit accumulations to colder surfaces except during periods of heavier snowfall. This is also why I'm not particularly bullish on the snow for this storm: the NWS forecasts 2.5" of snow for Metuchen, but I'll be surprised to make it to even 2".

https://www.weather.gov/phi

No noticeable changes in the NWS-Philly snowfall map, but the NWS-NYC cut back a bit on snowfall for NYC/LI and NENJ from Union to Bergen. Not really sure why they cut back a little bit as the models at 12Z and recently 18Z don't seem much different. I will say that my confidence continues to be low in the forecast of snow for my area of ~2" and I'm going to only predict 1.4" for my house tomorrow before the changeover.

Given the low likelihood of accumulation on paved surfaces south of 78 due to borderline temps (33-34F likely during the afternoon/early evening before rising further with the changeover to rain), to me this is still pretty much a non-event south of 78, except maybe west of Clinton where it'll be slightly cooler. Areas along/N of 78 and especially N of 80 to 84 (and NW of 287) in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY will have a more difficult time with snow on roads with temps below 32F (and some freezing rain, especially in far NWNJ/Poconos) until mid/late evening when the changeover to rain starts N of 78 and eventually N of 80 by early Sunday.

 

[BigEastPhil]

No noticeable changes in the NWS-Philly snowfall map, but the NWS-NYC cut back a bit on snowfall for NYC/LI and NENJ from Union to Bergen. Not really sure why they cut back a little bit as the models at 12Z and recently 18Z don't seem much different. I will say that my confidence continues to be low in the forecast of snow for my area of ~2" and I'm going to only predict 1.4" for my house tomorrow before the changeover.

Given the low likelihood of accumulation on paved surfaces south of 78 due to borderline temps (33-34F likely during the afternoon/early evening before rising further with the changeover to rain), to me this is still pretty much a non-event south of 78, except maybe west of Clinton where it'll be slightly cooler. Areas along/N of 78 and especially N of 80 to 84 (and NW of 287) in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY will have a more difficult time with snow on roads with temps below 32F (and some freezing rain, especially in far NWNJ/Poconos) until mid/late evening when the changeover to rain starts N of 78 and eventually N of 80 by early Sunday.

Is there some type of potential big storm for Wednesday/ Thursday?

If so what is preliminary time of when storm starts.

Thanks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I appreciate this thread, I have to travel from Piscataway to Brick and back tomorrow afternoon/early evening, keep em coming Numbers.

Learn to fish:

www.weather.com

All the weather info you need to know. Or just look at your iPhone weather app.

 

[darkcheck]

Learn to fish:

www.weather.com

All the weather info you need to know. Or just look at your iPhone weather app.

That iPhone weather app is pretty accurate

 

[RU848789]

Is there some type of potential big storm for Wednesday/ Thursday?

If so what is preliminary time of when storm starts.

Thanks.

Being discussed in the pattern thread, but will be starting a thread on it tomorrow; likely to start Weds night and go through Thursday. Could be a big one, but too early to forecast that 5 days out.

 

[Postman_1]

 

[jtung230]

Learn to fish:

www.weather.com

All the weather info you need to know. Or just look at your iPhone weather app.

My favorite is that it will tell you no rain while it’s raining outside

 

[RU848789]

No noticeable changes in the NWS-Philly snowfall map, but the NWS-NYC cut back a bit on snowfall for NYC/LI and NENJ from Union to Bergen. Not really sure why they cut back a little bit as the models at 12Z and recently 18Z don't seem much different. I will say that my confidence continues to be low in the forecast of snow for my area of ~2" and I'm going to only predict 1.4" for my house tomorrow before the changeover.

Given the low likelihood of accumulation on paved surfaces south of 78 due to borderline temps (33-34F likely during the afternoon/early evening before rising further with the changeover to rain), to me this is still pretty much a non-event south of 78, except maybe west of Clinton where it'll be slightly cooler. Areas along/N of 78 and especially N of 80 to 84 (and NW of 287) in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY will have a more difficult time with snow on roads with temps below 32F (and some freezing rain, especially in far NWNJ/Poconos) until mid/late evening when the changeover to rain starts N of 78 and eventually N of 80 by early Sunday.

No change in the NWS-Philly snowfall map other than reducing snowfall along/south of 276/195 to <1" (was in the 1"+ range), but the NWS-NYC bumped snowfall amounts for NENJ (Union up to Bergen) and NYC/LI back up to a general 1-3", similar to most of CNJ, so the map looks more consistent across offices. Still think this is overdone for areas south of 78, where I doubt we'll see much if any accumulation on paved surfaces with temps in the 33-34F range; north of 78 could see some snow on the roads. Also, no change in the advisories which are basically for 1-3" of snow plus up to 0.1" of freezing rain for the counties along 78 and for the far NW suburbs of Philly; the advisories are for 2-4" (plus up to 1/4" of freezing rain) for the counties along/N of 80 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY.

Precip has started for EPA and is just starting in NJ (mostly snow, but some rain too until the column cools a bit, at least N of 276/195). Still looking like a changeover to rain by 7-9 pm south of 78 and by midnight from 78 to 80, with some freezing rain (up to 0.1) possible in the higher elevations between 78 and 80. North of 80/NW of 287 in PA/NJ and N of 287 in NY is where we could see 2-4" of snow and up to 1/3" of ice as per the ice map; will even change to rain there sometime in the wee hours. After the changeover, most places should get 1-1.5" of rain (except well NW where more frozen falls).

https://www.weather.gov/phi

 

[Joey Bags]

Sleet line racing north in SEPA, thinking a 3-3:30 PM sleet changeover in Hunterdon and Somerset. These cutter systems always change over earlier than forecast in our climo, never understand how Mt Holly never picks up on this.

 

[29PAS]

Nicely flurrying in lower mid-town Manhattan now.

 

[MadRU]

Light snow here in Linden

 

[DJ Spanky]

Well it started coming down here about 1PM. Just took a really bad fall in the back by the grill as apparently the snowmelt from last night hardened into a solid layer of ice covered over by this snow. I was grilling last night and it wasn't icy at all, so this formed overnight. Took a helluva shot to my upper right back and shoulder. Fun, fun, fun.

 

[RU848789]

Snow started here around 2 pm and we have a coating so far

 

[RU848789]

Surprisingly, we've had consistent light to moderate snow for 90 minutes and as of 3:45 pm we have 1/2" on the ground on colder surfaces and we also have a light coating on our driveway and sidewalks (untreated), whereas any street in town is just wet (we just ran errands and ate downtown). It's 32F, which is a touch colder than forecast and could mean this will overperform (vs. the updated NWS 1.5" forecast for my house; was 2.0" last night and my prediction last night was for an underperformer with 1.4" for my house) unless the warm air moves in more quickly. Sleet/mix line looks to be from about Philly to LBI, so could have several or just a few more hours of snow. It also helps that 75% of our property still had 1/2" or so of snow/sleet/ice cover, which is 32F, enabling an easier start of accumulation.

 

[Joey Bags]

Surprisingly, we've had consistent light to moderate snow for 90 minutes and as of 3:45 pm we have 1/2" on the ground on colder surfaces and we also have a light coating on our driveway and sidewalks (untreated), whereas any street in town is just wet (we just ran errands and ate downtown). It's 32F, which is a touch colder than forecast and could mean this will overperform (vs. the updated NWS 1.5" forecast for my house; was 2.0" last night and my prediction last night was for an underperformer with 1.4" for my house) unless the warm air moves in more quickly. Sleet/mix line looks to be from about Philly to LBI, so could have several or just a few more hours of snow. It also helps that 75% of our property still had 1/2" or so of snow/sleet/ice cover, which is 32F, enabling an easier start of accumulation.

It's actually further north of there, correlation coefficient on DIX radar shows mix about to jump the state border along bucks/hunterdon/mercer counties. Not sure if it his a wall at some point and slows its advance. Snow did hold on longer that I expected by about an hour.