OT: New Jersey Devils '17-18 thread.......
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Not sure we'll have the choice. Schneids got hurt in a mad scrum early in the 3rd. His leg got twisted around and looked like he hyperextended his knee a little bit there. He had some trouble getting back up and moving around for a bit afterwards. Hopefully, he's just sore tomorrow and some treatment will get him well enough for game 4. The kid was on fire tonight, except for that second goal which I'm sure he'd want another shot at.
I have enough hockey knowledge to know they aren't beating TB four out of five games, Very few series result in sweeps so I probably shouldn't have said that. Nice that they came out juiced for their first home game in years but don't be fooled. This series was lost when they failed to get a win in Tampa. I can see this series going like the 2003 series Devils vs TB only the shoes are on the other feet. I'd be very surprised (and pleased) if this series is 2-2 after Wednesday.
Maybe. But the odds of that happening went from 90% to 80%. So you got that going for you...
When you are a road team, it doesn't matter whether you win Game 1, 2, 5, or 7. They all count the same! Take care of home ice and steal one road game. If the Devils win again tomorrow night, they are taking the series in 6!
Saying this was a mismatch wasnt correct either. The Devils outplayed them 2 games in a row. Kincaid was bad Saturday but the Devils were the team playing better.
If they hold serve at home, they just have to steal one out of the remaining two on the road. Right now, winning game 4 is all that matters.
I don't understand your doom and gloom mindset. Yes, Tampa is the better team and going down 2-0 was bad, but they are only trailing the series by one game now, so it doesn't matter that after two games it was 2-0 instead of 1-1. If they won a game in Tampa but lost last night, the odds of winning the series would be the same as they are now. They don't need to win four out of five anymore, now it is three out of four, and if they win tomorrow the task at hand becomes two out of three for both teams.
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I didn't get that feeling at all when i watched and i'm usually a fair observer of such things. I also don't blame kinkaid for game 2. i mean did you see that own goal? That was atrocious, devils D was horrendous. People look to the stat line and look at shots, but peppering a goal with low probability 1st look shots, vs higher probabability second and third rebound attempts is night and day difference. I'll take 25 shots with 2nd and 3rd attempts, vs 50 first time shots with the goalie having a clear view of the puck.
Nope, at least not historically.
Down 1-2, but winning game 3 at home: 20% to win.
Down 1-2, but losing game 3 at home: 28% to win.
Probabaly due to holding serve favors the home team slightly more.
I think you are a stats guy - there’s some good stuff here: https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi
I think there might be other factors contributing to the 8% difference. I really don't think it matters which games you won and lost. It's a 2-1 series now no matter how you slice it, and either way the odds are going to change drastically after Game 4, it will either be much more even or much more lopsided.
I’m sure there are millions of butterfly in Borneo factors, I.e. who knows how Schneider’s jock itch will affect the series.
Again, historically, it does matter when games were won.
Eh I say correlation does not equal causation. Just because the percentages aren't the same doesn't mean who win which games was a factor.
Sure it does, that’s exactly the point. This is emperical historical data.
Although maybe Moose went a bit overboard on the the over stuff, his inference was 100% correct, the devs would have been better off splitting in TB. Historically speaking of course.
And in no way is any of this determinant. It's just odds and fun. Until someone wins 4, there's always hope...
I get that it is historical data, but what I'm saying is that it doesn't mean the Devils would have been better off winning Game 2 and then losing Game 3. There are statistics for everything, but that doesn't mean they are all good indicators of what will happen. Like I said, correlation is not the same as causation. It is a 2-1 series regardless of what order the win and two losses came in. There is no reason that it would have any effect on the rest of the series. You could pull up statistics on how often the underdog wins a series when it rains on Tuesday, but that is also just data and is not an indicator of what will happen.
Let's say the Devils win tomorrow and the series ends up tied at 2. Would it still matter that they were down 2-0 at one point? Of course not. Even within an individual game, say a team goes down 2-0 and they score the next goal. Is their 2-1 deficit any worse than if it was 1-1 and they gave up the third goal? No, it is 2-1 either way.
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I root for the Reds, Bengals and Rutgers football so you can see why I might be a little jaded. Let’s hope the Devils can get a win tomorrow
I don't think what you are saying is completely true. If, for example, two teams are evenly matched, the most 'likely' probabilistic outcome after 3 games is alternating wins to 2-1. On the other hand if one team is better than the other, (say 66% likelihood of winning) then it is more likely to see that team win 2 or even 3 games in a row. So, I suspect there is causation here... Looking at all series over time, when a team loses the first two games in a row, even if they win the third, they are probably a bit more likely to lose the series than a team that won the middle game but lost the other two, silly as it sounds.
That said, in this case I can say with certainty that the Devils will win out....4-2 Devils.
Even so, that is more an explanation of the past than an indicator of what will happen next. It doesn't back up the statement that the Devils would have somehow been in a better position winning Game 2 and losing Game 3.
Agreed. And this is exactly what the historical data, based on literally hundreds of playoff series, says.
In all this, the key word is “probably”. There are no absolutes.
28 teams, including the 2000 Devils, have come back from 3-1 series deficits. They're only down 2-1, and have arguably outplayed Tampa in much of the series. Late start in the first two games, kind of let themselves get dug in a hole in both games. Game 3, they came out fired up, skating hard, and doing all the little grinding things that get you wins. Didn't pay off in the first, but kept at it, and won the game. Do that again in game 4. That's it. Make it a best of 3. They've beaten this team 3 times this year. Johansson is back, Cory got off the Scheid and has played great, and the guys are fired up. This is a series again. God knows what will happen, but they're in the thick of it, and I couldn't ask for more.
The amount of talent in the NHL is amazing. The speed and skill of these teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh really shows in the playoffs. The Devils are going to need more speed and talent to get to the next level.
Speaking of hockey. How about Pittsburgh running over the Flyers like they are a HS hockey team. Pittsburgh is so much quicker and talented than Philly.
Sidney Crosby is insane. It is amazing how one 1st overall pick in the lottery can have such an impact on a team and create billions in economic activity to the city of Pittsburgh.
Sidney Crosby is insane. It is amazing how one 1st overall pick in the lottery can have such an impact on a team and create billions in economic activity to the city of Pittsburgh.
He was at last night's game painted up like that and he tweeted out that no one recognized him.
Crosby is a generational talent, no doubt. But, IIRC, the Penguins sandbagged quite a bit, and landed Crosby, Malkin and Fleury all within a 4-5 year timeframe. Not taking away from Crosby, but any player requires some supporting cast members. I can't prove my theory, but as a Ranger fan (we had a great shot in that lottery and missed), I guarantee we would have found a way to turn Crosby into a bust; some success, but not like he's had in Pittsburgh. I'm still confused how they've been able to stay under the cap these last few years.
Maybe we can steal 1 more game, but this series is over. Those of you saying the devils have been out playing TB for large parts of the series...i just have no clue what you are watching. TB is the superior team and deserve the series. Good building block year for the devils and looking forward to next year.
You’re right, it’s a young team, and this is just the beginning. No reason to be disappointed if they get knocked out, but a lot of reasons to be excited about the next few years.
With that said, I was hopeful and thought they had a shot at making a run. They finished the season very strong, and won games all season against tough teams (especially Tampa). I thought perhaps they would surprise some people.
Well Lemieux is the owner over there and he basically just repeated what they did with him.
Just win game 5. Get the series back to NJ.
I wouldn't say they "sandbagged," they were just that bad. Things were going so poorly for them that they almost ended up being sold and moved to Hamilton. They got Fleury by trading for Florida's first overall pick, and since Crosby's draft year was after the lockout, they based that lottery over I think the prior five years instead of just one year, and every team had a chance (some more than others of course) at landing the first pick.
They drafted first or second overall for four years straight- Fleury (1), then Malkin (2), then Crosby (1) then Jordan Staal (2). The Pens are one of the reasons the draft lottery was adjusted.
Interestingly, after Crosby in 2005, the Pens have just one of their first round picks left. Staal they traded to Carolina for the #8 pick in 2012 (Derrick Pouliot) who was traded for a 4th and a bag of pucks a few years later. Their 07 first rounder was a bust that was a throw in for the Armstrong/Hossa trade, '08 they didn't pick until the 4th round, '09 first rounder Despres was traded to the Ducks for Ben Lovejoy in '12, '10 was Beau Bennett, we all know how that worked out, '11, Joe Morrow, traded in his first AHL season to Dallas for Brendan Morrow, '12 they had 2, Pouliot from Carolina's pick and Maatta who is actually with the team today. From '13 on, the only first round pick they had was in '14, this kid Kapanen who was part of the Kessel trade. The other 4 first rounders were all traded away.
They have a couple more years left as a good team, then it will be time to pay the piper. The cupboard is bare.
I was just pointing out that they didn't acquire these players by losing on purpose. They were just a genuinely bad team. The same goes for the Blackhawks, they were abysmal in the mid-2000s and then along came Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, etc. Meanwhile, the Oilers were in a similar situation but just can't seem to turn all of their first overall picks into success on the ice.
Actually, they were the reason it was created in the first place when they (allegedly) tanked a bunch of games in order to draft Lemieux. Of course NJ was the runner up in that race. We got Kirk Mueller at #2.
Kirk Muller was a boss. Not super Mario, but #9 was my fave as a kid.
I don't disagree with your point, I just thought it was interesting what they have done since then, in that they have bartered every semblance of building for the future for the sake of winning now. At this point, I think after they take care of the Flyers, they will be very surprised when they run into either Tampa or Boston. Both teams are far deeper than they are and I really don't see them getting out of the second round. At this point I see them having a limited window of 3 years or so as their top stars age and they just don't have the talent in the farm system to bring up. I'm only even giving them that window because Crosby and Malkin are as good as they are, because even now their depth on the big roster just isn't there anymore.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see if trading away their future puts them back where they were before Crosby and Malkin came along. Even if it does, I think you could say it was worth it to win those Cups.
If the Devils want to go deep into the playoffs they’re going to have to replace Baldi. They have some good young talent but you wouldn’t know it watching this game or series. Baldi has failed to prepare his team for the rigors of playoff hockey. And don’t give this horse sh!t about how they will learn from this experience and go deep next year. Nothing is guaranteed. Ask the Islanders
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