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OT: Official 2022 NY Mets Season And Post Season Thread

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Rest of season……+ 1.5
1 game in hand

Mets off Monday and Thursday
Braves off Thursday

Mets……. …. Braves
Mia 2…. ….. @ Nats 3
@ ATL 3. …. METS 3
Nats 3. …. @ Mia 3
 
Oh well. Phillies held up their end, more or less. We wanted at least a split and we got that. We wanted to sweep in Oakland and did not. In MLB a three game sweep against anybody is hard.

The goal is still to be up 2 going into Atlanta. It is still possible. We have a win in the bank that they still have to get. No guarantee that they will.

And of course everyone will be watching the track of Hurricane Ida.
 
Oh well. Phillies held up their end, more or less. We wanted at least a split and we got that. We wanted to sweep in Oakland and did not. In MLB a three game sweep against anybody is hard.

The goal is still to be up 2 going into Atlanta. It is still possible. We have a win in the bank that they still have to get. No guarantee that they will.

And of course everyone will be watching the track of Hurricane Ida.
Nailed it- the win in the bank is huge. What we need to do is win these two in Mia…
We do that and good chance we are up 2 going into the Braves Series.
 
Nailed it- the win in the bank is huge. What we need to do is win these two in Mia…
We do that and good chance we are up 2 going into the Braves Series.
Good chance? How? Wish I was as optimistic as you that the Nats are gonna win one of the 3 games against the Braves. I think the Braves will sweep just as we should have swept Oakland.
 
Good chance? How? Wish I was as optimistic as you that the Nats are gonna win one of the 3 games against the Braves. I think the Braves will sweep just as we should have swept Oakland.
As good of a chance as Oak winning one on us. Phil’s winning 2 on them

a 3 game sweep is tough…always
 
Good chance? How? Wish I was as optimistic as you that the Nats are gonna win one of the 3 games against the Braves. I think the Braves will sweep just as we should have swept Oakland.
Let's talk math.

What would you say is the likelihood of the Braves winning any given game at Washington this week? 75%? Remember they are without Strider and are holding Fried back.

If so, the likelihood of their taking three in a row is .75^3 = 42%. That they lose at least one is more likely than not.

Sweeping a three game series is hard.
 
As good of a chance as Oak winning one on us. Phil’s winning 2 on them

a 3 game sweep is tough…always
Sure it COULD happen. That's why they play the games. But I wouldn't say there's a good chance. Washington will easily lose over 100 games. Being swept has been the norm for them. They were 4-15 vs the Marlins this season. They won one at Atlanta last week. Should it happen again I'd be more than ecstatic. Provided we don't let the Marlins beat us.
 
Let's talk math.

What would you say is the likelihood of the Braves winning any given game at Washington this week? 75%? Remember they are without Strider and are holding Fried back.

If so, the likelihood of their taking three in a row is .75^3 = 42%. That they lose at least one is more likely than not.

Sweeping a three game series is hard.
It’s funny- Braves had that great run to bring the gap from over 10 to 1/2 game. I think the first got it to 1/2 game almost a month ago. Maybe 3 weeks.
and for a strange reason, it sometimes feels like everyone is acting like they are still out playing us. Since the first time they closed it to 1/2 game, we have actually outplayed them…just saying
These series for both teams are where we need to force the Braves to ‘win’ the extra game they have.
 
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Fan dual currently has odds to win the NL East as:
Mets -380
Braves +300

No idea how it’s that lopsided
 
Fan dual currently has odds to win the NL East as:
Mets -380
Braves +300

No idea how it’s that lopsided
I think in big part that the extra game they have most likely needs to be a win plus, we have the tie breaker by just winning 1 of the 3 games remaining with them.
everytime we win, even if they win, it gets very much harder for them to do it.
And, it isn’t like our Mets are barely hanging on- we are playing very well.
 
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Tie breaker essentially has Mets up 2 in the loss column if and only if Mets take at least one in Atlanta
Basically we control our own destiny. One thing we know the Braves can do is dominate the bottom feeders. The winning teams not so much. That's why we have the lead. So it will be up to us to keep that trend going next weekend.
 
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If I was Cohen I would think long and hard about breaking back to resign deGrom with his performance in big games and how many starts you get from him each year.
Cohen has an unbreakable bank. The question is not how far can he go. The question is how far will he go.

The benchmark contract is out there - Scherzer's $130MM over three years (player opt-out after two), AAV of $43.3MM. DeGrom will likely want a higher AAV, just because. The question is will teams be willing to go the third year.

My prediction: deGrom signs with somebody for three years at $45MM per. The third year is a club option which automatically vests (or maybe converts to a player option) based on his attaining predefined innings targets in his first two years.

That's what I think he'll get. The question is, from whom?
 
Cohen has an unbreakable bank. The question is not how far can he go. The question is how far will he go.

The benchmark contract is out there - Scherzer's $130MM over three years (player opt-out after two), AAV of $43.3MM. DeGrom will likely want a higher AAV, just because. The question is will teams be willing to go the third year.

My prediction: deGrom signs with somebody for three years at $45MM per. The third year is a club option which automatically vests (or maybe converts to a player option) based on his attaining predefined innings targets in his first two years.

That's what I think he'll get. The question is, from whom?
deGrom is 3 years younger than Scherzer so while the AAV might be the benchmark not sure he will agree to only a 3 yr deal. He might want 5.
 
deGrom is 3 years younger than Scherzer so while the AAV might be the benchmark not sure he will agree to only a 3 yr deal. He might want 5.
here is our advantage in a way for deGrom as well- he will be opting out but if he didn't we would be on the hook for about 35mil anyway- so, in a way, we are only increasing our payroll by 10 mil per year to keep him and other teams need to dig deep for a net new 45 mil contract.
 
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here is our advantage in a way for deGrom as well- he will be opting out but if he didn't we would be on the hook for about 35mil anyway- so, in a way, we are only increasing our payroll by 10 mil per year to keep him and other teams need to dig deep for a net new 45 mil contract.
Not really. If Jake does not opt out, his 2023 contract would be for $30.5MM - of which $12.5MM is deferred until 2038! So the cash layout is only $18MM. However, the full $30.5MM counts for luxury tax purposes.

Of Jake's 5 year $137.5MM contract, $52.5 is deferred 15 years. So the present value is significantly less. How BVW got Jake to sign that is unclear to me.
 
Not really. If Jake does not opt out, his 2023 contract would be for $30.5MM - of which $12.5MM is deferred until 2038! So the cash layout is only $18MM. However, the full $30.5MM counts for luxury tax purposes.

Of Jake's 5 year $137.5MM contract, $52.5 is deferred 15 years. So the present value is significantly less. How BVW got Jake to sign that is unclear to me.
Ok- fair enough but it is still an 18 mil already. So 45 becomes 27 new rather than a team that has to come up with 45.
 
deGrom is 3 years younger than Scherzer so while the AAV might be the benchmark not sure he will agree to only a 3 yr deal. He might want 5.
I think the absolute most he gets is three years with a vestable club option for a fourth. I really don't know how robust a market there will be for his services. Most teams are priced out of that market to begin with. Of those that are not, his injury history will be a concern.
 
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I think the absolute most he gets is three years with a vestable club option for a fourth. I really don't know how robust a market there will be for his services. Most teams are priced out of that market to begin with. Of those that are not, his injury history will be a concern.
I could see a 4 yr with an option on the 5th. Will be interesting and you are certainly 100% correct not that many teams will be in the market for him. If Yanks lose Judge maybe they throw something crazy out there also even though from all reports is that deGrom wants to head out of NY.
 
I could see a 4 yr with an option on the 5th. Will be interesting and you are certainly 100% correct not that many teams will be in the market for him. If Yanks lose Judge TO US maybe they throw something crazy out there also even though from all reports is that deGrom wants to head out of NY.
I haven't heard anyone close to deGrom say he wants out of NY. He wants out of his contract.

And I had to help out with your Judge comment lol
 
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I haven't heard anyone close to deGrom say he wants out of NY. He wants out of his contract.

And I had to help out with your Judge comment lol
There's a lot of rumblings he would like to play closer to home which is why the ATL rumor is out there. Texas was a new one I saw this weekend. He could just be playing the leverage game so we'll see how he pitches and go from there.
 
There's a lot of rumblings he would like to play closer to home which is why the ATL rumor is out there. Texas was a new one I saw this weekend. He could just be playing the leverage game so we'll see how he pitches and go from there.
I could understand Atl but they have not seemed to be willing to part that type of money. Why Jake may go- closer to home and they still give him a great shot at a WS championship.

Texas- that could only be for money if he went there. I really do think it will be important for Jake to get his money, have a real opportunity to get to the WS NEXT year and be somewhere his "legacy" continues.
 
A different question with other FA's- does anyone think one of the other big name SS's would be willing to play 3B or 2B? McNeil could easily be a LF and Escobar either at 3B or 2B...
 
A different question with other FA's- does anyone think one of the other big name SS's would be willing to play 3B or 2B? McNeil could easily be a LF and Escobar either at 3B or 2B...
Sign Devers and move Baty to LF. McNeil stays at 2B. Escobar is a bench bat. Nimmo probably walks.
 
Dammit Devers isn't a FA until after next season but my point still stands for that year.
 
Sign Devers and move Baty to LF. McNeil stays at 2B. Escobar is a bench bat. Nimmo probably walks.
have you sort of ignored his last 100 AB's...
And he has a career that he has had up to 38 HR and 118 RBI- and GG level fielding?
If we have his glove- we can't have the type of start we had here but he is far from a bench bat.

It is funny, I had thought Devers at first too but realized he wasnt a FA...but, would they take an Escobar or McNeil with a prospect for him?
 
have you sort of ignored his last 100 AB's...
And he has a career that he has had up to 38 HR and 118 RBI- and GG level fielding?
If we have his glove- we can't have the type of start we had here but he is far from a bench bat.

It is funny, I had thought Devers at first too but realized he wasnt a FA...but, would they take an Escobar or McNeil with a prospect for him?
No I haven't but 100 ABs doesn't make a season. He's only signed to a 2 year deal and is getting older. I expect him to be more of the same for the first 4 months of the season next year.

Naa Boston wouldn't do that. I'm not trading McNeil either. Baty will have 3B next year so we'll see how he does. Depending on that could always then move him to LF and sign Devers in FA.
 
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