OT-SNOW FRIDAY-FIRST DAY OF SPRING 2-4" (Maybe 6"?) NORTH OF I-78
- Thread starter Knight Shift
- Start date
Then don't look at the medium range models for mid-next week or for early April. :>)Originally posted by West Point Knight:
****ing sucks! Just when all the snow was finally gone...
this snow will be gone by Saturday afternoon if not sooner, what are you going to do with it, eat it or put in a petri dish, whats the point
Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78
I wouldn't expect much change to the NWS snowfall maps/predictions in their ~4 pm package today - I assume they'll continue with the advisories (advisories are for 3" or more of snow being likely) and not move to warnings, as achieving the 6" or more of snow warning criterion is not a high probability. I don't expect road conditions to be horrible during the 10 am to 4 pm timeframe, due to the March sun angle and lack of really high intensity snowfall rates - roads could get worse after 4-5 pm, with less insolation and dropping temps, if the intensity remains decent.
Today's models largely continue advertising at least a 2-4" event for almost everyone (except close to the coast, where more rain and more melting of any falling snow will occur), with 3-6" easily possible, especially along and NW of I-95 (and north of about Philly) and anywhere north of 78, including all of NE NJ/NYC/LI. This event is borderline enough, though (with surface temps around 32F), that it would not take a major shift in the storm track or actual levels of cold air tomorrow to lead to slightly warmer temps and much less snow - that's the risk in most late March storms.
I wouldn't expect much change to the NWS snowfall maps/predictions in their ~4 pm package today - I assume they'll continue with the advisories (advisories are for 3" or more of snow being likely) and not move to warnings, as achieving the 6" or more of snow warning criterion is not a high probability. I don't expect road conditions to be horrible during the 10 am to 4 pm timeframe, due to the March sun angle and lack of really high intensity snowfall rates - roads could get worse after 4-5 pm, with less insolation and dropping temps, if the intensity remains decent.
Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78
AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED...EARLIER IN THE SOUTH...LATER IN THE
NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH SUPPORT A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH
OF THE D CANAL...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IS
FORECAST IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR LESS THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF THE D CANAL AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE PHILADELPHIA EXURBS AND CENTRAL
NJ...AND 4 TO 6 FURTHER NORTH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. SEVERAL ISSUES TO
CONSIDER...HOWEVER...IN DETERMINING THE IMPACT FROM THIS SNOW EVENT.
FIRST IS THE ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN IN COMBINATION WITH THE FACT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH FAVORS LESS SNOW. SECOND IS THE
TEMPERATURE OF PAVED SURFACES VS. GROUND TEMPERATURES. BOTH HAVE
BEEN HEATED BY THE SUN IN RECENT DAYS (WHERE THERE ISN`T AN EXISTING
SNOW COVER). AUTOMATIC SENSORS INDICATE ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THIS WOULD
FAVOR LESS ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD REDUCE ADVERSE
TRAVEL IMPACTS. BARE GROUND AND UNTREATED SURFACES, HOWEVER, ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE SNOW WITH A FASTER COOL-DOWN RATE.
THIRD...THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE THAT OCCURS. FOURTH
IS HOW HIGH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GO AND HOW FAST. ONE OR TWO
DEGREES EITHER WAY COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THIS EVENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT THE STARTING TIME HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONE HOUR
SOONER TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER 12Z GFS RUN. THERE COULD
VERY WELL BE SOME AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78 THAT RECEIVE A BIT
MORE SNOW (IN THE WARNING CRITERIA), BUT IMPACT-WISE THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO BE A WARNING EVENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED...EARLIER IN THE SOUTH...LATER IN THE
NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WHICH SUPPORT A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH
OF THE D CANAL...THEN A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IS
FORECAST IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR LESS THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF THE D CANAL AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE PHILADELPHIA EXURBS AND CENTRAL
NJ...AND 4 TO 6 FURTHER NORTH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. SEVERAL ISSUES TO
CONSIDER...HOWEVER...IN DETERMINING THE IMPACT FROM THIS SNOW EVENT.
FIRST IS THE ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN IN COMBINATION WITH THE FACT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH FAVORS LESS SNOW. SECOND IS THE
TEMPERATURE OF PAVED SURFACES VS. GROUND TEMPERATURES. BOTH HAVE
BEEN HEATED BY THE SUN IN RECENT DAYS (WHERE THERE ISN`T AN EXISTING
SNOW COVER). AUTOMATIC SENSORS INDICATE ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THIS WOULD
FAVOR LESS ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD REDUCE ADVERSE
TRAVEL IMPACTS. BARE GROUND AND UNTREATED SURFACES, HOWEVER, ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE SNOW WITH A FASTER COOL-DOWN RATE.
THIRD...THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS WHERE THAT OCCURS. FOURTH
IS HOW HIGH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GO AND HOW FAST. ONE OR TWO
DEGREES EITHER WAY COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THIS EVENT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT THE STARTING TIME HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONE HOUR
SOONER TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER 12Z GFS RUN. THERE COULD
VERY WELL BE SOME AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78 THAT RECEIVE A BIT
MORE SNOW (IN THE WARNING CRITERIA), BUT IMPACT-WISE THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO BE A WARNING EVENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78
Doesn't look like there will be much snow before about 7-8 am, so the morning rush should be ok (except maybe towards Trenton/Philly, where snow should start by 6 am), even though temps will be in the upper 20s early. Snow is heaviest between about 9 am and 7 pm for most of the area (and especially around 11 am to 4 pm) and temps near I-95 will likely be in the 31-35F range (colder NW/warmer to the SE), so I still think major roads are mostly wet, except during periods of heavier snow.
Greatest risk for travel issues is likely to be after about 5 pm, if we have heavier snow at that point (temps may still be just above 32F then, but the sun will be much less of an issue) - and it doesn't take much to disrupt a Friday night commute - even just reduced visibility from falling snow can do that. Well N/W of I-95, it will likely be
NWS increased snowfall forecasts again for at least Middlesex/Mercer, which went from 1-3" to 2-5" and Somerset/Hunterdon and the NW Philly suburbs are included in that swath also. Monmouth/Ocean are listed at 1-3", as some mixing with rain is expected and slightly warmer temps will mean more snow melts as it falls; counties north of 78 are 4-6" in PA and NJ and NYC/LI/NE NJ are all 3-6". No warnings, as expected.
Doesn't look like there will be much snow before about 7-8 am, so the morning rush should be ok (except maybe towards Trenton/Philly, where snow should start by 6 am), even though temps will be in the upper 20s early. Snow is heaviest between about 9 am and 7 pm for most of the area (and especially around 11 am to 4 pm) and temps near I-95 will likely be in the 31-35F range (colder NW/warmer to the SE), so I still think major roads are mostly wet, except during periods of heavier snow.
Greatest risk for travel issues is likely to be after about 5 pm, if we have heavier snow at that point (temps may still be just above 32F then, but the sun will be much less of an issue) - and it doesn't take much to disrupt a Friday night commute - even just reduced visibility from falling snow can do that. Well N/W of I-95, it will likely be
Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78
No. 4 inches of snow will not cripple the state.
No. 4 inches of snow will not cripple the state.
Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78
He has been exceedingly busy with work, so perhaps that's what's delaying the updates. That or the latest models aren't looking good for snow - I've noticed that slows the pace of the updates too. LOL
The update a few posts further up from #s was also his last email update. Unusual just prior to a snowstorm to not get an update at 3am or so, at least via email.
He has been exceedingly busy with work, so perhaps that's what's delaying the updates. That or the latest models aren't looking good for snow - I've noticed that slows the pace of the updates too. LOL
Oh, man, I am in serious trouble - I completely forgot to stop at the store last night and pick up a few gallons of milk and some loaves of bread. God, I hope we can survive this storm - I guess we'll be rationing food once I get home.
temps are 32-35 across the region, light snow has begun in western and southern portions of New Jersey, temps will fall slightly as the precip gets going
The real question is how much actually sticks to pavement. People hear 3-6 inch amounts and they freak out because they think that's what will be on roads and sidewalks but in this case that will likely not be true. Those amounts are strictly for grassy surfaces and car tops. Now there will be a heavier period of snow at some point today and its going to accumulate even on pavement and walks. How much it does is still unclear. A rise in temp of a degree or two can make a big difference. This storm will fight the sun angle later this afternoon so what might accumulate earlier in the storm might not accumulate by later in the afternoon
This is going to be a lot about nowcasting and observations. Some will make out better than others. I would expect main roads and highways to be mainly wet, side roads and sidewalks could have issues later. Thank god this storm isn't happening at night. Looks like this should be the last one. Rapid melting on Saturday. We get to warm into the 50s next week after a cold Sunday and maybe Monday where we struggle with temps
The real question is how much actually sticks to pavement. People hear 3-6 inch amounts and they freak out because they think that's what will be on roads and sidewalks but in this case that will likely not be true. Those amounts are strictly for grassy surfaces and car tops. Now there will be a heavier period of snow at some point today and its going to accumulate even on pavement and walks. How much it does is still unclear. A rise in temp of a degree or two can make a big difference. This storm will fight the sun angle later this afternoon so what might accumulate earlier in the storm might not accumulate by later in the afternoon
This is going to be a lot about nowcasting and observations. Some will make out better than others. I would expect main roads and highways to be mainly wet, side roads and sidewalks could have issues later. Thank god this storm isn't happening at night. Looks like this should be the last one. Rapid melting on Saturday. We get to warm into the 50s next week after a cold Sunday and maybe Monday where we struggle with temps
we have had very light snow for almost 2 hours here in Belle Mead..no accumulation yet, not even on grass or cars...in the past 10 minutes its coming down a little heavier so expecting to seem some stickage soon to the grass and perhaps pavement as the snow gets heavier. I would think 12-6 look like the brunt of this system
Mt Holly has upped snowfall totals on their map to 4-6 for most of NJ expanding it down all the way through Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington
Snow is falling heavily at the Camden campus, but very little of it is sticking on paved surfaces.
Snow not sticking to roads, driveways, sidewalks except for brick pavers in Hillsborough. These are the first to catch accumulating snow.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
I really thought Belle Mead was a shore town (it has shore-ish sounding naem)...had to look it up...my Jersey Geography...bad!
Benny!! Were you thinking Belmar?Originally posted by West Point Knight:
I really thought Belle Mead was a shore town (it has shore-ish sounding naem)...had to look it up...my Jersey Geography...bad!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Originally posted by Knight Shift:
Originally posted by West Point Knight:
I really thought Belle Mead was a shore town (it has shore-ish sounding naem)...had to look it up...my Jersey Geography...bad!
Snowing heavily in Hillsborough at 12:30. During the past 10 minutes my driveway and walks becoming snow covered. Roads getting slushy on my street. Time to go out salting. i think this area will get more sticking to roads. looks like plowing mode by rush hour as we are in a heavy band. Also temps have fallen to 32 from 34 in 2 hrs.
This post was edited on 3/20 12:37 PM by RocktheRac
This post was edited on 3/20 12:37 PM by RocktheRac
snow sticking only to grassy surfaces and car tops here...picked up a quick 1/4 inch in just 15 minutes.
moderate snow now.....a bit over a half inch on grassy surfaces...just begin to stick a little to outer edges of pavement
expect some moderate to heavy snow bands from now until late this afternoon where we pick up the bulk of our snow
should be an inch an hour accumulations during this period so watch for rapidly changing road conditions during the heaviest snow periods
expect some moderate to heavy snow bands from now until late this afternoon where we pick up the bulk of our snow
should be an inch an hour accumulations during this period so watch for rapidly changing road conditions during the heaviest snow periods
I dumped milk and eggs on the sidewalks and parking lot here in Woodbridge, and the snow is not sticking. You are screwed without the milk and eggs.
a bit over an inch here on grass and car tops...sidewalks getting covered in spots...parking lot still wet
some areas to the north in somerset county are sticking better
1-3 inches being reported in se pa, southern nj and Trenton area
some areas to the north in somerset county are sticking better
1-3 inches being reported in se pa, southern nj and Trenton area
Definitely more snow further south you go. Went to do some salting in Bridgewater and lots were just wet. Went to Somerville/Raritan lots slushy. Then came back to Hillsborough and there is about 1 inch on driveways and side roads.
