OT: The OFFICIAL EMU @ RU Weather Thread: Lock It Up for Gorgeous - mild, mostly sunny, and dry

[RU848789]

The pattern for most of next week is quite warm, although it should cool down to somewhat below normal temps by next weekend (normal is 80/58F for high/low temp), i.e., temps in the low/mid-70s. The big question is rain and a possible predecessor rain event (PRE) prior to Irma actually reaching our latitude. Some models show the fetch of moisture and possibly heavy rain well out ahead of Irma streaming into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by next Saturday, while other models don't show any PRE or at least not until next Sunday or Monday (when the storm starts approaching our latitude).

So, the precip forecast is very much up in the air and not worth much discussion yet. Let's hope we get lucky and Irma recurves out to sea (quite possible still, although a US landfall is also quite possible now), so we can have a dry game and not have to live through another significant hurricane impacting our area. Stay tuned.

 

[bac2therac]

yep good luck...models have been trash in the mid to long range this year so no one has any clue right now...check back Wednesday

 

[RU848789]

yep good luck...models have been trash in the mid to long range this year so no one has any clue right now...check back Wednesday

Models were superb for the first game and were superb for Harvey. You need to stop posting opinions as if they're facts or else show your work. Your derogatory comments about weather models are growing tiresome.

 

[G- RUnit]

No weather forecast is accurate this far out. Pass.

 

[bac2therac]

Models were superb for the first game and were superb for Harvey. You need to stop posting opinions as if they're facts or else show your work. Your derogatory comments about weather models are growing tiresome.

because 5 days ago the forecast for Saturday was SUNNY....7 days ago the forecast for Friday was Harvey remnants...I can go back to some other weekends that were muffed up in the past few weeks...I can go back to this Tuesday's rain which was being forecast on Sunday as a 30% chance of showers but turned into an all day soaker the night before

point is the models have not been all that accurate in the medium range

 

[e5fdny]

Thank you, @RU848789. ;)

Much better.

 

[RocktheRac]

5 days ago today was supposed to be sunny and nice......its not. Sunday was supposed to be nice but looks like showers. I'm waiting for the change on Monday to rain. These 5 day forcasts are worth crap.

 

[bac2therac]

5 days ago today was supposed to be sunny and nice......its not. Sunday was supposed to be nice but looks like showers. I'm waiting for the change on Monday to rain. These 5 day forcasts are worth crap.

agree....as Numbers should know we work outside so we are religiously following forecasts days in advance to plan our schedules so its not like we are making this stuff up, we are seeing forecasts that get changed all the time in medium range....the fact that he is butthurt that he has to defend weather models and mets on a non weather board is quite odd. That I didnt even disagree with his original post which actually falls in line with my thinking is quite telling that he wants to pick a fight

 

[RU848789]

Weather for Saturday is looking a bit more optimistic, as a front should come through by late Thursday, leaving high pressure in control through the weekend with dry conditions currently forecast and slightly cooler-than-normal temps in the mid-70s on Saturday. Still 6 days out, so this could change, but it's looking pretty good right now. Also, Irma isn't expected to impact this area (assuming it comes this way) until at least the Monday/Tuesday after the game - and models aren't showing any predecessor rain event before Irma on the weekend, as couple had shown 1-2 days ago. NWS discussion is below - note they also comment on Irma and the futility of models for hurricanes 8-9 days out.

Sprawling high pressure builds into the region by the weekend.
Kept the forecast dry with slowly warming temperatures during
this period. Given the large spread with the track of Irma from
the 12Z model suite (CMC takes Irma into the OH/TN Valleys after
skirting the FL coast; GFS into the Carolinas; ECMWF recurves
Irma out to sea after possibly glancing the Outer Banks), this
example serves as a reminder to take a particular operational
run with a grain of salt at this time scale. Accuracy at
predicting tropical cyclone tracks beyond the long-range period
is simply nowhere close to such an application.

 

[RU848789]

Thank you, @RU848789. ;)

Much better.

We aim to please, lol...

 

[RU848789]

agree....as Numbers should know we work outside so we are religiously following forecasts days in advance to plan our schedules so its not like we are making this stuff up, we are seeing forecasts that get changed all the time in medium range....the fact that he is butthurt that he has to defend weather models and mets on a non weather board is quite odd. That I didnt even disagree with his original post which actually falls in line with my thinking is quite telling that he wants to pick a fight

As I said in the UW weather thread to similar comments by you, of course 5 day forecasts are sometimes wrong - I don't think many around here talk more about forecast uncertainty than I do - my main point, which your anecdotes aren't relevant to, is that there's no evidence they're worse lately than they were a year or two ago.

And we know that, in general, forecasts keep getting better as the models and the fundamental science improve. As I've posted before, 5-day forecasts today are as accurate as 3-day forecasts were in 2005 (but they're certainly not perfect, especially on precip, which is harder to get right than temps).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...nce-Says-Weather-forecasts-improve-radar.html

 

[DJ Spanky]

As I said in the UW weather thread to similar comments by you, of course 5 day forecasts are sometimes wrong ....

Duh, that's why they call them forecasts!

1. to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance:

I swear, some of you have such thick skulls that if you fall off of a boat, you must bob upside down in the water.

 

[redlinehw]

Why is everyone so hostile

 

[Abro1975]

Where are the Euro model pics ? You guys are slipping.

 

[RU848789]

Where are the Euro model pics ? You guys are slipping.

 

[RU848789]

Weather for Saturday is looking a bit more optimistic, as a front should come through by late Thursday, leaving high pressure in control through the weekend with dry conditions currently forecast and slightly cooler-than-normal temps in the mid-70s on Saturday. Still 6 days out, so this could change, but it's looking pretty good right now. Also, Irma isn't expected to impact this area (assuming it comes this way) until at least the Monday/Tuesday after the game - and models aren't showing any predecessor rain event before Irma on the weekend, as couple had shown 1-2 days ago. NWS discussion is below - note they also comment on Irma and the futility of models for hurricanes 8-9 days out.

Sprawling high pressure builds into the region by the weekend.
Kept the forecast dry with slowly warming temperatures during
this period. Given the large spread with the track of Irma from
the 12Z model suite (CMC takes Irma into the OH/TN Valleys after
skirting the FL coast; GFS into the Carolinas; ECMWF recurves
Irma out to sea after possibly glancing the Outer Banks), this
example serves as a reminder to take a particular operational
run with a grain of salt at this time scale. Accuracy at
predicting tropical cyclone tracks beyond the long-range period
is simply nowhere close to such an application.

Almost a lock for a gorgeous day on Saturday with cooler than normal highs in the low 70s and lots of sunshine and low humidity. There's no rain in the "official" NWS forecast, but in the discussion there is talk of a small chance of a brief, very light shower or two in the wake of the trough/cold front that will have passed through. If that materializes, it would very likely only be nuisance level rain (<0.05"), but it's far more likely to remain dry.

Next weekend...High pressure builds into and north of the
region this coming weekend, with probably dry weather and cooler
than average temperatures. There appears to be a fly in the
ointment that we`ve tried to account for. Some models are
spitting out very minor amounts of showers here and there. This
is apparently in response to the cold trough aloft leaving a
piece behind to form a closed low aloft near Long Island. Its
not yet the predominant 500 MB solution but I thought needed to
be accounted for. Therefore...you`ll note a chance of showers in
ne PA and nw NJ Satur"day" and sprinkles along the coasts Sat
night. Lets just say that I`m not certain whether it will be a
dry weekend and I could easily see a LOW aloft developing as
hinted by the UKMET and EC.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[Degaz-RU]

Seems like Friday through Monday are forecast as sunny/partly sunny, which I assume means there's little chance of a miss for Saturday, as the weather looks good both before and after. Looks like a perfect day for football (sunny, high in low 70s).

 

[RU848789]

Almost a lock for a gorgeous day on Saturday with cooler than normal highs in the low 70s and lots of sunshine and low humidity. There's no rain in the "official" NWS forecast, but in the discussion there is talk of a small chance of a brief, very light shower or two in the wake of the trough/cold front that will have passed through. If that materializes, it would very likely only be nuisance level rain (<0.05"), but it's far more likely to remain dry.

Next weekend...High pressure builds into and north of the
region this coming weekend, with probably dry weather and cooler
than average temperatures. There appears to be a fly in the
ointment that we`ve tried to account for. Some models are
spitting out very minor amounts of showers here and there. This
is apparently in response to the cold trough aloft leaving a
piece behind to form a closed low aloft near Long Island. Its
not yet the predominant 500 MB solution but I thought needed to
be accounted for. Therefore...you`ll note a chance of showers in
ne PA and nw NJ Satur"day" and sprinkles along the coasts Sat
night. Lets just say that I`m not certain whether it will be a
dry weekend and I could easily see a LOW aloft developing as
hinted by the UKMET and EC.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Lock it up for a gorgeous early fall day on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies, cooler than normal temps (highs around 70F), low humidity, light winds, and no chance of rain. The discussion (and the models) now no longer even mention any possibility of a brief spritz or two. Enjoy.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Almost had a heart attack on the way home tonight - coming up 287N, it started pouring south of and through Morristown.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I also drove through the heavy rain earlier, but, it's out of here and will be dry and nice tomorrow for the game

 

[RU848789]

Another great forecast by the NWS. Absolute stunner of a day. Awesome tailgate. Putrid game. Don't want to even talk about it, so I'll limit my posts to this one and the ongoing thread on Irma.

Peeking ahead for the weather for what could be our only win of the year, based on today's performance (can't believe I typed that after how good I felt after the UW game - hopefully, this is just frustration, as I do believe we're better, but just sucked tonight), things are looking decent, i.e., seasonably warm with highs in the mid-70s (normal is 77/55F for high/low), but there is a chance for a couple of showers from the remnants of Irma.