One of the few times I think you are at least near the truth. We don't know, and it is very doubtful (to me) that any program is going to go from 6 wins to 20 in one season. It doesn't mean I don't think they will be a lot better, but my highest realistic expectation would be nearer to just over .500, although I could be proved wrong.
That said, what I do think:
- What I watched on the court the few games I saw RU on TV wasn't anything resembling RU basketball under CVS and barely resembled basketball. Sort of like the football team when Terry Shea? was the coach. I suspected that the chewing out of players constantly when they came off the court had to do with what they were not doing on the court.
- Because I didn't see chemistry, didn't see a lot of team play, and saw some showboating, I'm going to suggest that at least one and possibly 2 of the players that left were not expected to be significant contributors next season - plus of course the 2nd Jeune.
- Tyler's health is a concern, true, but no real reason to think she won't be her old self. Clearly, there is an expectation that the folks who were sitting out this year are going to be the starters next year - as has been reported in supposedly reliable publications, so I don't think we can 100% compare to prior transfers. How good they actually are remains to be seen, my guess is one is capable of being really, really good, one is good and one is capable of contributing, but that is only a guess from reading the "press".
To be hugely optimistic about next season - Sweet 16, 20+ wins, etc. is a real stretch, I think. But to believe that a winning record, a better product on the court and all that are not unreasonable. To expect another season like the last one is, IMO, just wrong.