You mean like 95% of your posts?
In this thread are 10 players listed between 2005-12. That means more than one per year. Yeah.... I'd say it means something.
And sorry you missed the entire point of the thread. I'm not advocating that we should be going for 2 star guys, the point was that the system of predicting talent of 17-18 year old players means jack.
Michigan was LOADED with talent for years, and sucked. Texas arguably had the best recruiting classes in the country, and sucked.
The most important thing is always having a good coach who knows how to find talent and develop it. Schiano was a beast on that front. Time will tell if Ash is.
But your entire statement that 2 stars are lucky to even be contributors on the P5 level... is absolutely destroyed by Boise State's success over the past 15 years. Or for that matter the seasons of Houston, Temple or Memphis last year.
Oh, and Navy seems to do just fine with no star talent. :)
Coaching. Coaching. Coaching.
If you have a problem with one of my other posts here, than feel free to say so. Unless its a stupid joke, I rarely say anything without a reason, so if you think I contribute nothing, make your argument, and I will make mine. And if you catch me, I will be the first to admit it. I didn't mean to attack your post (it wasn't personal), but this argument is made here far too frequently. Pointing to anomalies like the McCourty twins, Boise State and Texas doesn't make the argument, They are a huge exception. On the whole, the star rankings do an incredibly good job of predicting future success pf 17-18 year old players.
So I didn't miss your point, its just that the point is wrong. Even in referencing Rutgers, you claim Schiano was a "beast" at getting 2 stars to the top level, but then you cite 10 players over 7 years. College classes are 25 players or more, annually. So 10 players in 5 years is about 5.5%. In the aggregate, the likelihood of a player excelling at the P5 level is borne out by the recruiting rankings. And yes, a 2 star recruit is highly unlikely to ever be a contributor on a successful P5 school.
Here is a study over 4 years of school success based solely on recruiting ranking. He ranked all the BCS and top independents into 5 levels for 4 years based on their recruiting. The writer actually concludes that no, coaching doesn't matter:
"To describe those results as "compelling" would be selling them short. It's a landslide. On the final count, the higher-ranked team according to the recruiting rankings won roughly two-thirds of the time and [with one exception] every "class" as a whole had a winning record against every class ranked below it every single year...While "one-star" recruiting teams fared slightly better against blue-chip opponents than "two-star" teams, both groups combined managed a grand total of 19 wins over "five-star" opponents in 112 tries. Broadly speaking, the final results on the field broke along a straight line demarcated on signing day."
This is an article showing your likelihood of becoming an all american. It also includes portions of the first article I linked. By comparing recruits from 2008 to 2012:
Odds of Becoming an All-American, by Recruiting Ranking
5–Star: 1 in 4.
Top 100: 1 in 6.
4–Star: 1 in 16.
3–Star: 1 in 56.
2–Star: 1 in 127.
All FBS Signees: 1 in 45.
This
article analyzed 1st round draft picks for 5 drafts from 2009-2014.
5 star prospects made up 1.5% of college football players (about 30 per year), but accounted for 18% of all 1st round picks. That is an incredible ratio. Of the 160 first round picks over the 5 year period:
29 5 star players
64 4 star players
43 3 star
21 2 star
3 unranked.
So although 2 and 3 star guys make up 85% of all college recruits, they account for less draft picks than 4 and 5 star players. Also, it is worth noting that of the 21 2 star guys who made it, 9 played at FCS schools, and likely benefited from lots of playing time.
Here is an article with the 2015 draft numbers, which are just as bad.
Here is an analysis of all draft picks. A 5 star recruit has nearly a 90% chance of being drafted.
"
The average five-star draftee's position in 2015: 77.79.
The average among all four-stars and three-stars: 123.09.
Two-stars and unrated players? 164.3."
But yeah. My point is "absolutely destroyed" by the fact the Boise State under Peterson outperformed.
