It's always easy to see events as "inevitable" after they've happened.
So I mostly agree with your point -- but wouldn't you agree that having a team in the NY market is one reason why the new TV deal is as good as it is?
The demise of the ACC foretold...
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So I mostly agree with your point -- but wouldn't you agree that having a team in the NY market is one reason why the new TV deal is as good as it is?
I agree RU getting them in the NY market is a positive and made the current deal bigger, but even if the number was $75 million instead of the $100 million being thrown around to make a school “worth adding, that’s a big sell in an increasingly cord cutting world when RU’s biggest revenue factor is monthly cable carriage fees.
Very fair point. No.. they do not do what is in each other's best interests because they are not aligned, as you say.
When the SEC expanded to Texas and Missouri for 2012 I think that forced the B1G TEN's hand into expansion mode. And that is why we are in.. because GS helped turn us into a regular bowl game participant and we all showed up to the bowl games and when independent consultants did all teh math as to where to expand, New Jersey and Maryland won out... got pieces of the NYC, Philly, Baltimore and DC media markets. Access to NYC-NJ corporations and DC politicians and all the B1G TEN alums in that same footprint.
But I think the Big Ten expanded BECAUSE the SEC expanded... and the math that included BTN and FOX as interested parties instead of ABC/ESPN with teh fingers in all the pots and suddenly betting on the SEC... that decided things. And it was a great move for all concerned.
Going back to 2010 just prior to Nebraska being added, Harvey Pearleman (President of Nebraska) was asked what was the end game, 12-14-16 schools? He answered, he saw models with 24 to 27 schools in a conference.
I have believed since then, that the Big 10 will expand to 24 plus schools. I believe that this has been in the works for a long time (the Big 10 is like the Ents from the Lord of the Rings - talk and discuss taking a long time). A national conference with large land grant universities that are AAU and large research institutions. Maryland and Rutgers fit that model. USC and UCLA fit that model. When you look at the universities that they are looking at, they fit that model. Big 10 likes to take their time and integrate the schools into the conference before moving on.
Oh please God turn BC into another UCONN.
the best thing that could happen to the RU is for BC to be left on that island all by themselves when the dust settles
Since in reality RU got in mid contract they probably would have gotten added in time for the next contract anyway, but I remember accounts at the time saying the timeline for the RU/MD additions sped up when the B1G all of a sudden didn’t have to worry about implementing the OOC scheduling thing with the PAC12 they were trying to get going, Basically, they could put the West on the back burner and move East,
Schadenfreude!
Schadenfreude!
Rah Rah Rah!
But, somehow, I think the B1G will decide that inviting all these teams is so costly and they have to give them a better deal than Rutgers got so they will have to lower Rutgers's payout for 100 years to pay for it. ya know.. to get the real Big Ten teams to vote for it.
Their only hope in the long run is the B12, and I just don’t see them making that move for BC and Syracuse.
The B12 could have a nice little “pod” of WVU, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Louisville which works out well for the travel of non-football sports and already has some good rivalries. Why on earth would they add such geographic outliers as BC and Syr?
What analysis is necessary, except to notice that the ACC would blow up like a supernova if they didn’t have a legal document delaying the inevitable until 2036?
Lol if you think the ACC, in its current format and w it’s current schools, is lasting until 2036
Pitt better have a plan because there is no way Pitt survives the next round or rather, will be relegated to single A ball
I think Pitt is a certainty for the B12 when the ACC falls apart. They and Louisville along with Cinn and WVU make a nice geographic grouping with some pre-existing football rivalries and easy scheduling for non-football sports.
Yeah. Cuse and BC on the other hand are f'ed 5 ways to Sunday. They'll be joining Connie in the Big East 2.0 for basketball/Olympic sports and praying they have a spot to park football.
I agree about BC and Cuse, but I think if they are in the Big East for their other sports they are only allowed to be independent in FB.
No doubt. They shouldn't be allowed to park football in a conference without moving basketball and their other sports in that conference. If they go BE 2.0, they'll have to go Indy for football like UConn.
What is ironic, all those years ago, Rutgers was the dead man walking.
Pitt, Syracuse, BC and the rest got saved by the ACC while Rutgers was left high and dry. People laughed at you guys feeling you were screwed. Now Rutgers is living life large and the rest appear headed to dead man walking status.
Ironic.
Pitt, Syracuse, BC and the rest got saved by the ACC while Rutgers was left high and dry. People laughed at you guys feeling you were screwed. Now Rutgers is living life large and the rest appear headed to dead man walking status.
Ironic.
Depending on how much the ACC loses, I could see it be the other way around where a UCF, WVU, and possibly Cincy fit better in the ACC than the B12.
If enough solid teams are left behind the ship is as seaworthy as the B12. Geographically it’s a better fit for WVU and UCF and probably Cincy too.
Where’s the money coming from? ESPN is going to have another round of huge layoffs next week, and the number of cable subscribers will continue to decline over the next decade as older people die off.
ESPN and Fox will view the elimination of 6-8 schools from the top level of college football as a good thing, because that is fewer mouths to feed.
Yes, the number of cable subscribers is dropping fast. But so far streaming services haven't been able to make money. To quote one observer, "we're in an interesting pivot." https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...-2022-cable-pay-subscriber-losses-1235340253/
I could say the same for th B12. The money any network would pay between the 2 is likely similar. Frankly, having presence up and down the eastern seaboard and a little in the midwest is likely more attractive than a Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas centric conference.
It just depends on how much the ACC loses. If UVA/VT/NC State/Miami/Duke/Pitt are all still there then the ACC is as attractive if not more so for a network than the B12.
The comparison isn’t between the ACC and the SEC or B10. The comparison is between the ACC and the B12 and they’re pretty much par. If those schools above are still there then I’d put the ACC in a little in front in terms of tv attractiveness to a network.
The only hope for these schools is the B12 establishing themselves as the solid third conference.
If the B12 drifts down to the same level as the ACC leftovers it doesn’t matter where any of the non-B1G or SEC schools end up because they are all screwed.
Several years before the GOR's expire a new contract with ESPN/ABC and the ACC will be announced.
The financial compensation to the ACC will be close to the SEC/B1G and no one will be leaving.
We can discuss this again and again for the next 10 years until it happens.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
The financial compensation to the ACC will be close to the SEC/B1G and no one will be leaving.
We can discuss this again and again for the next 10 years until it happens.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Who on earth will be joining that God forsaken hell hole to get them on par w the B1G and SEC?
Pitt is an ACC school, so it's natural for you to hope that the ACC lands on its feet. If the ACC becomes unviable (as the Pac-12 might), then the only good options for Pitt will be the Big Ten or SEC, and there's no guarantee PItt would end up in either. But you're certainly right that, barring the dissolution of the GOR, we're not going to know the fate of the ACC for a long while.
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If you are watching the news on TV and they start talking about the financial sector, you must change the channel.
The era of ESPN giving out big money for anything but a handful of premium properties is over already. A decade from now they will have trouble retaining those premium properties, let alone paying big for the ACC.
Two questions.
What is ION?
Is that where the PAC12 is going to end up getting their contract (that, or public access on cable)?
After the B10 and SEC pick off the cream of the crop, what would be left in the ACC, B12, and P12 would have to combine to form a distant 3rd conference.
Lets assume the end-game for the B10 and SEC is 24 teams each.
I see the B10 taking Stanford, Cal, Wash, Oregon, UNC, and UVA to get to 22. That leaves 2 spots left. In no particular order (other than the fact that Notre Dame is 1st on everyone's list) the following schools are under consideration for those last 2 spots: UND, Ga Tech, Pitt, Duke, Oregon St, Wash St, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St (though I am not sure if Iowa is a big enough state to have 2 B10 teams).
I see the SEC taking FSU, Clemson, and Va Tech to get to 19, leaving room for 5 more. There aren't 5 candidates left in the ACC, maybe Miami, NC State, and Lville. So the SEC would need to take some B12 or P12 schools, possibly some from the B10 potential list above.
You can play around with the scenarios, but what would be left in the ACC/B12/P12 is not a compelling conference.
Given what's happened to Purdue in the tournament and against Rutgers the last 2 years, I'm surprised his head hasn't exploded.
