TKR guys are way too harsh on Gavin

[rutgersal]

Minnesota had an All-B1G WR in Daniel Jackson
Receptions: 59 = 4th ; Receiving yards: 831 = 3rd; Receiving touchdowns: 8 TDs = 3rd in BiG.

RU had nobody like that.

Washington, J Jackson and Semaj Morgan = 1 TD each.
Long, Paterson, Langan and Bowman had 0 TDs
RB Ja'shon Benjamin had 1 TD
Ian Strong and RB Aaron Young had 2 TDs each
Dremel had 3 TDs and none after September and Wagner game.

Take away the 3 RB TDs and the WRs were good for what 7 TDs ?
That's one less than Minn's Jackson - the whole RU WR room.
That's not all Gavin's fault since the RU guys couldn't catch in traffic or claim jump passes

Daniel Jackson and Aireontae Ersery named All-Big Ten Offense

Four Gophers were also named All-Big Ten Honorable Mention

www.thedailygopher.com

I’ve been arguing similar for a while now. Some have qb tunnel vision and the the qb did miss a number of opportunities,
but you also have to consider the lack of talent in our WR Corp when it comes to our passing struggles. We had an inordinate amount of pass breakups and we would not have had as many if someone like Daniel Jackson was in our WR Corp. there was no true WR1, though the kids did their best, and Dremel was our most productive receiver with 35 catches and more than 400+ yards receiving. Miami gave him blanket coverage and he only ended up with one catch. Our kids lack ball skills, especially the ability to make contested catches.

What we really need are difference makers like Carroo, Sanu, and Britt and not just contributors like what we have. Hopefully someone already on the roster can develop into one, or Miller can be that guy.

 

[Eagleton96]

I’ve been arguing similar for a while now. Some have qb tunnel vision and the the qb did miss a number of opportunities,
but you also have to consider the lack of talent in our WR Corp when it comes to our passing struggles. We had an inordinate amount of pass breakups and we would not have had as many if someone like Daniel Jackson was in our WR Corp. there was no true WR1, though the kids did their best, and Dremel was our most productive receiver with 35 catches and more than 400+ yards receiving. Miami gave him blanket coverage and he only ended up with one catch. Our kids lack ball skills, especially the ability to make contested catches.

What we really need are difference makers like Carroo, Sanu, and Britt and not just contributors like what we have. Hopefully someone already on the roster can develop into one, or Miller can be that guy.

I watched every throw from both quarterbacks yesterday, heaven help me. What you are saying just doesn’t ring true.

 

[ashokan]

I’ve been arguing similar for a while now. Some have qb tunnel vision and the the qb did miss a number of opportunities,
but you also have to consider the lack of talent in our WR Corp when it comes to our passing struggles. We had an inordinate amount of pass breakups and we would not have had as many if someone like Daniel Jackson was in our WR Corp. there was no true WR1, though the kids did their best, and Dremel was our most productive receiver with 35 catches and more than 400+ yards receiving. Miami gave him blanket coverage and he only ended up with one catch. Our kids lack ball skills, especially the ability to make contested catches.

What we really need are difference makers like Carroo, Sanu, and Britt and not just contributors like what we have. Hopefully someone already on the roster can develop into one, or Miller can be that guy.

RU WRs are weak at contested balls.
Wimst has to hit them isolated or not at all
He can hit them in the hands and they cant close the deal when opposition is tight

 

[willisneverrana43]

The kid found a way to win 7 games and they act like he’s Chris Laviano.

Also in their latest podcast they talk about how Kaliakmanis is way better than Gavin if you account for adjusted pass rate (which accounts for dropped balls) because Kaliakmanis is at 66%, only to find out that Gavin’s adjusted rate is at 57%

Not that massive of a difference fellas.

I have no idea whether the adjusted pass rate of these two QBs means as much as they attribute to it. But, setting that analysis aside, I do know that the difference between a QB completing 57% and 66% of his passes is big.

 

[rutgersal]

I have no idea whether the adjusted pass rate of these two QBs means as much as they attribute to it. But, setting that analysis aside, I do know that the difference between a QB completing 57% and 66% of his passes is big.

57% vs 66% doesn’t tell you much because it’s apples vs oranges, because the aptitude of the WR Corps is different, as previously discussed in this thread. IE the stat doesn’t account for pass breakups.

It would tell you something if there wasn’t a material difference between the WR Corps, but that isn’t the case here, as Daniel Jackson is an All Big Ten WR. We don’t have an All Big Ten WR.

Once we get the kids in camp, and they compete, then we can have a meaningful comparison because all the supporting variables will be same, with the only difference being the QBs.

Both quarterbacks have warts and both need to be developed. Furthermore, We are still in the process of building an effective WR Corp. I think had Athan played for Rutgers, his completion percentage would have been sub 50%.

This year will probably be a development year for the passing game, as the receivers and quarterback continue to work to get better. I found the Minnesota fan opinions of Athan particularly illuminating, but nevertheless, everyone starts with a blank slate in my book. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be expecting these guys to throw for 2500+ yards, because such expectations would be unfair, as they are not finished products. We certainly have potential but whether we have performance remains to be seen.

Hopefully, by ‘25 we can have a 3K passer, because the kids will be sufficiently developed, both QBs and WRs.

 

[ashokan]

Both quarterbacks have warts and both need to be developed. Furthermore, We are still in the process of building an effective WR Corp. I think had Athan played for Rutgers, his completion percentage would have been sub 50%.

Indeed.

Its easy to think WRs are just a pair of hands running a preset route and waiting for QB to deliver a ball to him like his mom putting a birthday cake in front of him when he was 8.

There's a lot of cat/mouse between DBs and WRs
Good WRs know how to get open more and they can catch half-baked throws while locking out DBs
The linked vid is of Stephon Gilmore explaining what goes on between DBs and receivers and its very insightful

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I watched every throw from both quarterbacks yesterday, heaven help me. What you are saying just doesn’t ring true.

I’m with you Eagleton. No more stat posts from me. I defer to the film. All you have to do is watch and it should be clear to anyone that for now, AK is the better passer - receiver corp talent notwithstanding. The standout difference on the film is that AK’s throws are placed well enough to routinely give receivers (whatever their talent level) the opportunity to pick up yards post reception. This alone is huge and tells me we’ve raised our floor significantly (completion rate aside Wimsatt would have to a) fix this issue in his game and b) also earn the green light to attempt to make reads and adjust plays post snap more often to have a chance of winning the competition). These are important areas where based on the film it seems to me that AK has a comfortable lead.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Also - One other point on Gavin’s perceived “edge” in the running game to keep in mind. There’s a good chance Kirk’s starting point in assessing AK’s running ability will be based on his 2022 output while playing for him (not his 2023 numbers). Think about it - if your the OC, wouldn’t your natural starting bias be more driven by what you observed while the QB played for you half a season than his output in a different system?

 

[Eagleton96]

57% vs 66% doesn’t tell you much because it’s apples vs oranges, because the aptitude of the WR Corps is different, as previously discussed in this thread. IE the stat doesn’t account for pass breakups.

It would tell you something if there wasn’t a material difference between the WR Corps, but that isn’t the case here, as Daniel Jackson is an All Big Ten WR. We don’t have an All Big Ten WR.

Once we get the kids in camp, and they compete, then we can have a meaningful comparison because all the supporting variables will be same, with the only difference being the QBs.

Both quarterbacks have warts and both need to be developed. Furthermore, We are still in the process of building an effective WR Corp. I think had Athan played for Rutgers, his completion percentage would have been sub 50%.

This year will probably be a development year for the passing game, as the receivers and quarterback continue to work to get better. I found the Minnesota fan opinions of Athan particularly illuminating, but nevertheless, everyone starts with a blank slate in my book. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be expecting these guys to throw for 2500+ yards, because such expectations would be unfair, as they are not finished products. We certainly have potential but whether we have performance remains to be seen.

Hopefully, by ‘25 we can have a 3K passer, because the kids will be sufficiently developed, both QBs and WRs.

Fair post. And the coaching staff has done their job to try and upgrade the WR corps. And similarly they should be trying to upgrade the QB room.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

57% vs 66% doesn’t tell you much because it’s apples vs oranges, because the aptitude of the WR Corps is different, as previously discussed in this thread. IE the stat doesn’t account for pass breakups.

It would tell you something if there wasn’t a material difference between the WR Corps, but that isn’t the case here, as Daniel Jackson is an All Big Ten WR. We don’t have an All Big Ten WR.

Once we get the kids in camp, and they compete, then we can have a meaningful comparison because all the supporting variables will be same, with the only difference being the QBs.

Both quarterbacks have warts and both need to be developed. Furthermore, We are still in the process of building an effective WR Corp. I think had Athan played for Rutgers, his completion percentage would have been sub 50%.

This year will probably be a development year for the passing game, as the receivers and quarterback continue to work to get better. I found the Minnesota fan opinions of Athan particularly illuminating, but nevertheless, everyone starts with a blank slate in my book. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be expecting these guys to throw for 2500+ yards, because such expectations would be unfair, as they are not finished products. We certainly have potential but whether we have performance remains to be seen.

Hopefully, by ‘25 we can have a 3K passer, because the kids will be sufficiently developed, both QBs and WRs.

And once again I blow up your BS because you don't actually look for the information and pull stuff from your rear:

PBUs against each offense in 2023:
RU - 34
Minn - 38

First it was dropped balls until it was shown that Minny receivers dropped more, now it's PBUs but once again that's a false narrative.

What's next on the Save St. Gavin agenda people?

 

[RUTGERS95]

RU WRs are weak at contested balls.
Wimst has to hit them isolated or not at all
He can hit them in the hands and they cant close the deal when opposition is tight

that's not a contested ball issues, that's a shitty route issue. he cuts that in 2 steps like he's supposed to and he catches that ball

 

[RUTGERS95]

all this nonsense about the the WRs. Gav had trouble hitting our guys and if he doesn't, the numbers are much better and this isn't a discussion. Some of you want to blame the bow & arrow when it's the indian behind it.

the irrational defense of Gav is mind boggling.

 

[rutgersfan1766]

all this nonsense about the the WRs. Gav had trouble hitting our guys and if he doesn't, the numbers are much better and this isn't a discussion. Some of you want to blame the bow & arrow when it's the indian behind it.

the irrational defense of Gav is mind boggling.

You might be as dumb as Christopher Columbus with that first comment and there are people here defending a QB that's never even taken a snap for Rutgers. If that's not mind boggling idk what is.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Minny media guys are much harsher on AK in my opinion. When you look at his 7 losses - 2 of them were against Michigan and OSU who literally nobody beat.

So they lost 5 other games. In one of them - Purdue scored 49 points on over 350 rushing yards. No QB was overcoming that.

He led NW to a 31-10 Q4 lead and played an excellent game overall. Again - that loss is on the D - not his fault.

Outside of the last drive in the Illinois game (which wouldn’t even have happened if Minny stops them on 4th and 11) - he had a very good game in that one too.

He didn’t play that poorly vs Wisky either other than a desperation interception he threw when the game was all but over (that’s probably what the commentators remember though).

So really - he had one truly bad outing against UNC outside of Michigan / OSU.

 

[Eagleton96]

You might be as dumb as Christopher Columbus with that first comment and there are people here defending a QB that's never even taken a snap for Rutgers. If that's not mind boggling idk what is.

I’ve been arguing similar for a while now. Some have qb tunnel vision and the the qb did miss a number of opportunities,
but you also have to consider the lack of talent in our WR Corp when it comes to our passing struggles. We had an inordinate amount of pass breakups and we would not have had as many if someone like Daniel Jackson was in our WR Corp. there was no true WR1, though the kids did their best, and Dremel was our most productive receiver with 35 catches and more than 400+ yards receiving. Miami gave him blanket coverage and he only ended up with one catch. Our kids lack ball skills, especially the ability to make contested catches.

What we really need are difference makers like Carroo, Sanu, and Britt and not just contributors like what we have. Hopefully someone already on the roster can develop into one, or Miller can be that guy.

After having watched every pass from Wimsatt this past season, and from AK, I think you are being way to harsh on the WRs. I saw our WRs bringing just as many, if not more, of the actual catchable balls. And many many awesome catches. Please stop being so negative to our WRs and blaming them for everything.

 

[NickRU714]

After having watched every pass from Wimsatt this past season, and from AK, I think you are being way to harsh on the WRs. I saw our WRs bringing just as many, if not more, of the actual catchable balls. And many many awesome catches. Please stop being so negative to our WRs and blaming them for everything.

It is a little funny to see the comments:

"Stop bashing Gavin. We won 7 games including a bowl. He's not as bad as people are saying.
It's the WRs that suck. Blame them. It's their fault."

Those WRs were good enough to win the same 7 games including a bowl.....

 

[rutgersfan1766]

Minny media guys are much harsher on AK in my opinion. When you look at his 7 losses - 2 of them were against Michigan and OSU who literally nobody beat.

So they lost 5 other games. In one of them - Purdue scored 49 points on over 350 rushing yards. No QB was overcoming that.

He led NW to a 31-10 Q4 lead and played an excellent game overall. Again - that loss is on the D - not his fault.

Outside of the last drive in the Illinois game (which wouldn’t even have happened if Minny stops them on 4th and 11) - he had a very good game in that one too.

He didn’t play that poorly vs Wisky either other than a desperation interception he threw when the game was all but over (that’s probably what the commentators remember though).

So really - he had one truly bad outing against UNC outside of Michigan / OSU.

Every Minny guy I talked to said Gavin was better than Athan. They're HS coaches in MN.

It's closer battle than people think.

 

[Eagleton96]

It is a little funny to see the comments:

"Stop bashing Gavin. We won 7 games including a bowl. He's not as bad as people are saying.
It's the WRs that suck. Blame them. It's their fault."

Those WRs were good enough to win the same 7 games including a bowl.....

And the thing is, the ire against GW stems from the many times we have seen him badly miss, badly, an open receiver.

And I did not see MN's receiver Jackson making a lot of circus catches honestly. I did see Dremmel and Jaquae Jackson making some amazing catches.

 

[jtung230]

And the thing is, the ire against GW stems from the many times we have seen him badly miss, badly, an open receiver.

And I did not see MN's receiver Jackson making a lot of circus catches honestly. I did see Dremmel and Jaquae Jackson making some amazing catches.

I would love to have WR Jackson from Minn.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

That's not all Gavin's fault since the RU guys couldn't catch in traffic or claim jump passes

Umm.. what "jump ball" passes were there to claim? 10 feet over their heads or 10 feet out of bounds or, occasionally, perfectly thrown ropes.

I did notice the new guy throws catchable flairs and dinks and dunks, but rarely in the best spot for YAC. We really need YAC with him. Of course, we didn't even get the C.. the CATCH.. with many of our guy's short throws.

Was it the Temple game we we saw a few PERFECT flare routes to RBs with both Benjamin and Brown? getting huge gains on well-thrown balls where they could get max YAC? Why can't we find someone who can do that regularly? Monangai should produce stacked boxes that will allow for a flanker-type to get outside for that kind of thing... we need to hurt defenses who stack up against Monangai. We cannot continue to just run it anyway.. we almost blew the bowl game doing that.

Look at this.. it is beautiful...


and later..



Wimsatt CAN do it... why he doesn't is anyone's guess. My personal belief is lack of discipline in little things.. like footwork.. reads.. he might know where he wants to go with he ball.. but doesn't make allowances to look off the defense before the throw.. stuff like that. Maybe if we called more runs for him off a good fake to Monangai that might trigger something positive in him.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Umm.. what "jump ball" passes were there to claim? 10 feet over their heads or 10 feet out of bounds or, occasionally, perfectly thrown ropes.

I did notice the new guy throws catchable flairs and dinks and dunks, but rarely in the best spot for YAC. We really need YAC with him. Of course, we didn't even get the C.. the CATCH.. with many of our guy's short throws.

Was it the Temple game we we saw a few PERFECT flare routes to RBs with both Benjamin and Brown? getting huge gains on well-thrown balls where they could get max YAC? Why can't we find someone who can do that regularly? Monangai should produce stacked boxes that will allow for a flanker-type to get outside for that kind of thing... we need to hurt defenses who stack up against Monangai. We cannot continue to just run it anyway.. we almost blew the bowl game doing that.

Look at this.. it is beautiful...

View embedded media

and later..

View embedded media

Wimsatt CAN do it... why he doesn't is anyone's guess. My personal belief is lack of discipline in little things.. like footwork.. reads.. he might know where he wants to go with he ball.. but doesn't make allowances to look off the defense before the throw.. stuff like that. Maybe if we called more runs for him off a good fake to Monangai that might trigger something positive in him.

Huh? Did we watch the same film. I observed the complete opposite. The stat gurus could probably pull the numbers to verify but it seemed to me that a large percentage of AK’s yards were picked up on post catch runs. Very few throws outside the ones that were completed in tight coverage didn’t go for extra yards. He may not have the prettiest looking short throw but his receivers picked up yards after catching them.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

Huh? Did we watch the same film. I observed the complete opposite. The stat gurus could probably pull the numbers to verify but it seemed to me that a large percentage of AK’s yards were picked up on post catch runs. Very few throws outside the ones that were completed in tight coverage didn’t go for extra yards. He may not have the prettiest looking short throw but his receivers picked up yards after catching them.

That happens when you deliver balls on time. Something our QB has always struggled with for some reason even with clean pockets.

 

[rutgersal]

And once again I blow up your BS because you don't actually look for the information and pull stuff from your rear:

PBUs against each offense in 2023:
RU - 34
Minn - 38

First it was dropped balls until it was shown that Minny receivers dropped more, now it's PBUs but once again that's a false narrative.

What's next on the Save St. Gavin agenda people?

The only BS is between your ears.
I don’t think you understand that information is the analysis of the data.

Opponents broke up Rutgers passes 36 times, not 34 times, as shown below. So the difference was de minimis. What’s more important is that Daniel Jackson owned 35% of all Minnesota completions as he had 59 catches, 68% more than our leading receiver. And he also owned 43% of Minnesota passing yardage, a significant chunk. His receiving yardage was nearly double our leading receivers.



Rutgers Stats

 

[RUforlife]

Just think we have 9 more months of this debate before the first game. Aren't we the lucky ones.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The only BS is between your ears.
I don’t think you understand that information is the analysis of the data.

Opponents broke up Rutgers passes 36 times, not 34 times, as shown below. So the difference was de minimis. What’s more important is that Daniel Jackson owned 35% of all Minnesota completions as he had 59 catches, 68% more than our leading receiver. And he also owned 43% of Minnesota passing yardage, a significant chunk. His receiving yardage was nearly double our leading receivers.



Rutgers Stats

I don’t disagree with you on Jackson. He’s definitely a factor on long ball receptions. Gavin might have an edge over AK on design play throws down field to a specific receiver all else equal. This is evident in his excellent first series drive output. We scored on our first drive 9 times I think and it would’ve been 10 if not for the fumble. We scored in that one on our second drive. It’s the read adjustments and the shorts where Gavin struggles most though and I don’t think the receiver corp talent is a factor in this. His ball placement and speed is just plain off. Either too much zip or the ball is thrown in a way where the receiver can’t stay on their feet to pick up more yards. Far too often.

AK looks comfortable in the shorts and laterals. It may not always be a pretty spiral (kind of like with Vedral) but he appears reliable in this part of his game. When you have RBs like Kyle and Sam available to throw to on short routes this aspect of the game could really expand for us. I see a lot of potential there. I don’t know why Gavin struggles so much with these throws but until he proves otherwise it’s hard to count on him taking a big leap on this.

 

[rutgersal]

I don’t disagree with you on Jackson. He’s definitely a factor on long ball receptions. Gavin might have an edge over AK on design play throws down field to a specific receiver all else equal. This is evident in his excellent first series drive output. We scored on our first drive 9 times I think and it would’ve been 10 if not for the fumble. We scored in that one on our second drive. It’s the read adjustments and the shorts where Gavin struggles most though and I don’t think the receiver corp talent is a factor in this. His ball placement and speed is just plain off. Either too much zip or the ball is thrown in a way where the receiver can’t stay on their feet to pick up more yards. Far too often.

AK looks comfortable in the shorts and laterals. It may not always be a pretty spiral (kind of like with Vedral) but he appears reliable in this part of his game. When you have RBs like Kyle and Sam available to throw to on short routes this aspect of the game could really expand for us. I see a lot of potential there. I don’t know why Gavin struggles so much with these throws but until he proves otherwise it’s hard to count on him taking a big leap on this.

This type of analysis is accurate and constructive. Gavin has a lot of work ahead of him and let’s see where he ends up. I agree that his biggest opportunity is being able to hit the short routes consistently with proper ball placement so that the player has an opportunity to make a play.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Huh? Did we watch the same film. I observed the complete opposite. The stat gurus could probably pull the numbers to verify but it seemed to me that a large percentage of AK’s yards were picked up on post catch runs. Very few throws outside the ones that were completed in tight coverage didn’t go for extra yards. He may not have the prettiest looking short throw but his receivers picked up yards after catching them.

Did you watch every throw or his highlights?

He has the same issue that Vedral had in putting the ball in bad spots making receivers stop to make the catch. Sure, just like Wimsat, you can point to throws that go perfectly well.. but I was shocked how a new QB pickup did NOT look all that dominating throwing the ball.

I guess we shall see. My preference is to see vastly improved QB play no matter who that QB is. I do not think AK is accurate on the long ball but neither is GW. I do think GW has all the ability to become a very good QB.. but that he has not done so with all this experience is not a good sign for the future. We did need a new QB option and I hope AK is it.. but I am not convinced. Both can improve this offseason (as well as others) and we'll see what happens.

Watch his next 2 throws here.. both short completions.. 41:32 in in case the cue link doesn't work. I could find bad throws but this is what I am talking about.. wide open short routes where target has to jump or stop and reverse field to catch and run. Do you think that is how those routes are practiced? And, yes, this is better than GW has done and might even be better than what Vedral did on short routes. But I want to see targets not have to break stride at all.

 

[RUforlife]

This type of analysis is accurate and constructive. Gavin has a lot of work ahead of him and let’s see where he ends up. I agree that his biggest opportunity is being able to hit the short routes consistently with proper ball placement so that the player has an opportunity to make a play.

Are you talking about our QB Gavin "Winsatt"?

 

[Knight Shift]

This chart ranks All FBS QBs with at least one attempt.

AK is about 10% higher than GW on catchable balls thrown for a similar depth of target. GW is very low, he is one of six QBs below 60%. For those complaining about the TKR guys being too harsh, consider this. @mb5789 @Richard Schnyderite

FWIW-don't know what to make of this:

 

[jtung230]

This chart ranks All FBS QBs with at least one attempt.

AK is about 10% higher than GW on catchable balls thrown for a similar depth of target. GW is very low, he is one of six QBs below 60%. For those complaining about the TKR guys being too harsh, consider this. @mb5789 @Richard Schnyderite

View embedded media

FWIW-don't know what to make of this:

View embedded media

I’m not sure that’s similar depth. GW is where Penix jr is and clearly top 5% of college football in depth of target. Lower percentage than check down throws.

 

[Knight Shift]

I’m not sure that’s similar depth. GW is where Penix jr is and clearly top 5% of college football in depth of target. Lower percentage than check down throws.

9 yards (27 feet) vs 10 yards (30 feet) is not a similar depth?
GW is also 15% lower than Penix.

Let me ask my statistician better half to do a linear regression analysis on how much the 3 yards vs the 10% miss difference means. Let me be clear- not trying to knock GW down in any way. I follow Parker Fleming on Twitter. He is a stats nerd. I could be wrong, but he has zero bias or interest in AK and GW and who starts next year.

You can reply to Parker Fleming on X if you like.

 

[jtung230]

9 yards (27 feet) vs 10 yards (30 feet) is not a similar depth?
GW is also 15% lower than Penix.

Let me ask my statistician better half to do a linear regression analysis on how much the 3 yards vs the 10% miss difference means. Let me be clear- not trying to knock GW down in any way. I follow Parker Fleming on Twitter. He is a stats nerd. I could be wrong, but he has zero bias or interest in AK and GW and who starts next year.

You can reply to Parker Fleming on X if you like.

View embedded media

It might not seem like much but that chart tells a different story. It’s like 3rd and 1 vs 3rd and 2. Just one additional yard but changes % to convert 1st down by a lot.

 

[Knight Shift]

I’m not sure that’s similar depth. GW is where Penix jr is and clearly top 5% of college football in depth of target. Lower percentage than check down throws.

Here is some more. I will admit, I'm a bit out of my element here. I had to look up EPA (thought it had to do with gas mileage 😜 ). By the EPA stat alone, neither of them are very good. Gavin is ranked lower in EPA/Attempt. But for comparison, Penix' EPA is 157.4. Jaden Daniels' EPA is 183.1. Note this is through 10 games. You will also note that GW is between Penix and Athan in ADOT. AK and GW are separate by 0.5
yards--- not much.

As I have said before, a lot of this is somewhat meaningless with different receivers, different opponents, etc. One thing to note is AK was pressured and sacked a good bit more than GW. Throw that into the soup for the linear regression analysis, and it tells you absolutely nothing?

I'm not sure, but I think I can glean from these stats that Penix is the best QB among these three?

: cfb-graphs.com

www.cfb-graphs.com

@mb5789 @Richard Schnyderite

 

[ashokan]

9 yards (27 feet) vs 10 yards (30 feet) is not a similar depth?
GW is also 15% lower than Penix.

Let me ask my statistician better half to do a linear regression analysis on how much the 3 yards vs the 10% miss difference means. Let me be clear- not trying to knock GW down in any way. I follow Parker Fleming on Twitter. He is a stats nerd. I could be wrong, but he has zero bias or interest in AK and GW and who starts next year.

You can reply to Parker Fleming on X if you like.

View embedded media

Zone defenses change every 5-10 yards up the field
The 10 yd line is about where LBs and DBs change off main responsibilities.
That's where the slot guys make a living playing the cracks in the zone.
Wimsatt liked to his throw to guys crossing the field and near the "middle hole" where they can be alone between zone specific defenders

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Did you watch every throw or his highlights?

He has the same issue that Vedral had in putting the ball in bad spots making receivers stop to make the catch. Sure, just like Wimsat, you can point to throws that go perfectly well.. but I was shocked how a new QB pickup did NOT look all that dominating throwing the ball.

I guess we shall see. My preference is to see vastly improved QB play no matter who that QB is. I do not think AK is accurate on the long ball but neither is GW. I do think GW has all the ability to become a very good QB.. but that he has not done so with all this experience is not a good sign for the future. We did need a new QB option and I hope AK is it.. but I am not convinced. Both can improve this offseason (as well as others) and we'll see what happens.

Watch his next 2 throws here.. both short completions.. 41:32 in in case the cue link doesn't work. I could find bad throws but this is what I am talking about.. wide open short routes where target has to jump or stop and reverse field to catch and run. Do you think that is how those routes are practiced? And, yes, this is better than GW has done and might even be better than what Vedral did on short routes. But I want to see targets not have to break stride at all.

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I’m not saying the ball is perfectly placed but having to jump a little and then take off is still a massive upgrade from either a) not completing the pass at all because the ball is thrown so hard it’s uncatchable or b) so poorly placed that the receiver has to lose his footage and fall down to catch it. Unfortunately, Gavin’s shorts fell into these categories more often than not.

I’m not sure exactly what Gavin’s issue is with these throws but he hasn’t yet figured them out. Those throws are about taking what the D gives you and finding a receiver with space in front of them. They aren’t design plays. I’ll even double down on my statement before - it’s possible we finished with a top 25ish first drive of the game point conversion rate (if that stat exists) in FBS. I mean, how many teams could there be that scored on their first drive in 9 out of 13 games? That’s really solid. We made it to the red zone in the Temple game too before the fumble. Gavin is pretty reliable at design plays. We knew this from the throw he made in 2021. His problem is everything else.

 

[rutgersal]

This chart ranks All FBS QBs with at least one attempt.

AK is about 10% higher than GW on catchable balls thrown for a similar depth of target. GW is very low, he is one of six QBs below 60%. For those complaining about the TKR guys being too harsh, consider this. @mb5789 @Richard Schnyderite

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FWIW-don't know what to make of this:

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Chart missing context, but this demonstrates why good quarterbacks don’t want to come here. Crappy job with little support, yet you will be judged harshly against quarterbacks in better situations. We hadn’t had good OL play in 9 years, till this year. Now we have to upgrade the WR and TE Corp.

I have a strong hunch that this is why McCord didn’t come here, and he’s in Syracuse instead.

 

[Kbee3]

Chart missing context, but this demonstrates why good quarterbacks don’t want to come here. Crappy job with little support, yet you will be judged harshly against quarterbacks in better situations. We hadn’t had good OL play in 9 years, till this year. Now we have to upgrade the WR and TE Corp.

I have a strong hunch that this is why McCord didn’t come here, and he’s in Syracuse instead.

Are you saying that Ajani Sheppard and AJ Surace are not good quarterbacks ?
They came here.

 

[rutgersal]

Are you saying that Ajani Sheppard and AJ Surace are not good quarterbacks ?
They came here.

They are good quarterbacks, who were overlooked as recruits. Ajani is a two star while AJ is a three star.

But they are not on the level as four star Drew Allar, who is Penn States starting quarterback. This is the caliber of prospect we will be able to land once we fix the WR and TE talent, much in the same way we landed four star Tom Savage.

We should start hitting up California for quarterbacks, especially now that we’ll be playing USC and UCLA semi-regularly. Rather than gym, football players do something football related.

 

[satnom]

57% vs 66% doesn’t tell you much because it’s apples vs oranges, because the aptitude of the WR Corps is different, as previously discussed in this thread. IE the stat doesn’t account for pass breakups.

It would tell you something if there wasn’t a material difference between the WR Corps, but that isn’t the case here, as Daniel Jackson is an All Big Ten WR. We don’t have an All Big Ten WR.

Once we get the kids in camp, and they compete, then we can have a meaningful comparison because all the supporting variables will be same, with the only difference being the QBs.

Both quarterbacks have warts and both need to be developed. Furthermore, We are still in the process of building an effective WR Corp. I think had Athan played for Rutgers, his completion percentage would have been sub 50%.

This year will probably be a development year for the passing game, as the receivers and quarterback continue to work to get better. I found the Minnesota fan opinions of Athan particularly illuminating, but nevertheless, everyone starts with a blank slate in my book. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be expecting these guys to throw for 2500+ yards, because such expectations would be unfair, as they are not finished products. We certainly have potential but whether we have performance remains to be seen.

Hopefully, by ‘25 we can have a 3K passer, because the kids will be sufficiently developed, both QBs and WRs.

I haven’t looked up but do you know when was the last time a Kirk C offense had a 2,500+yd passer?

GO RU

 

[rutgersal]

I haven’t looked up but do you know when was the last time a Kirk C offense had a 2,500+yd passer?

GO RU

I assume it was 2019, as that was the year it was mentioned he had two 1K receivers.