Weather for RU @ MD: will be seasonable and dry (updated 11/23)

RU848789

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Models are literally all over the place for Saturday in the DC/Balt area, with some showing a nice day and some showing moderate to heavy rain and almost every model has shown major changes from run to run over the last 24 hours. The official NWS forecast is for partly cloudy and dry with seasonable temps, i.e., a high in the mid-50s (average high/low is 54/36F on 11/26 in College Park), but their forecasters discussion mentions the very high uncertainty around the possibility of low pressure system with rain moving across the area. We're simply going to need more time to see how the pattern unfolds. So far, we haven't had any rain of consequence in any game this year, but that may end. We'll see. Would be nice to end the season with a win...

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/
 

Knight Shift

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Models are literally all over the place for Saturday in the DC/Balt area, with some showing a nice day and some showing moderate to heavy rain and almost every model has shown major changes from run to run over the last 24 hours. The official NWS forecast is for partly cloudy and dry with seasonable temps, i.e., a high in the mid-50s (average high/low is 54/36F on 11/26 in College Park), but their forecasters discussion mentions the very high uncertainty around the possibility of low pressure system with rain moving across the area. We're simply going to need more time to see how the pattern unfolds. So far, we haven't had any rain of consequence in any game this year, but that may end. We'll see. Would be nice to end the season with a win...

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/
IMO, heavy rain may help Rutgers and keep Taulia at bay. But if the Chesapeake Bay rises, that could help the Terrapins.
 
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RUinPinehurst

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Tickets going for $5 on Stubhub. Very common for RU-MD on Rivalry week.
Rain and chill in forecast. Holiday weekend. Anemic "rivalry" angle. All that equates to an empty stadium. $5 tickets are not enough. Free concessions wouldn't even help.
 

wheezer

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Accuweather has the bulk of the rain Friday
Hopefully we get lucky and just a passing shower if that
 

RU848789

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Accuweather has the bulk of the rain Friday
Hopefully we get lucky and just a passing shower if that
Most 1-2 sentence forecasts 4-5 days out can't include the level of detail available to understand the level of uncertainty and confidence in a forecast. The NWs also has a forecast of some rain on Friday and clearing on Saturday, but the NWS forecaster discussion really shows the huge model uncertainty in that forecast, as I mentioned last night. If one reads this, confidence in a dry Saturday is pretty low.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
943 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21/00Z global model suite did not show any improvement in model
spread with respect to the forecast for the end of the week. Global
models show a trough digging across the Rockies and central part of
the country Wednesday, but begin to diverge greatly after that with
the latest GFS still showing a trough cutting off over ern NM/W TX
and the ECMWF showing a more progressive trough moving across the
Mid-South, OH Valley, mid-Atlc, and Northeast by the end of the
week. The Canadian, which in previous runs had shown a scenario
similar to the ECMWF, has now joined the GFS showing the trough
becoming cutoff near El Paso, TX. On the other hand, the ECMWF which
looked more amplified in previous runs, now looks less amplified,
but also slower, and less intense with sfc low development over the
Northeast at the end of the week. The Euro has also been the most
consistent model showing a phased trough, while the GFS has shown a
lot of volatility from run to run. In summary, all of these imply a
large degree of uncertainty heading into next weekend. WPC
preference is to lean more on the more phased trough and a strong
system impacting the mid-Atlc and Northeast next weekend. Hopefully,
global models will come into better agreement in the next day or
two. If the ECMWF scenario eventually turns out correct, we could be
looking a period of strong winds Saturday. Temperatures look to
remain on the mild side into early next week.
 

Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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Most 1-2 sentence forecasts 4-5 days out can't include the level of detail available to understand the level of uncertainty and confidence in a forecast. The NWs also has a forecast of some rain on Friday and clearing on Saturday, but the NWS forecaster discussion really shows the huge model uncertainty in that forecast, as I mentioned last night. If one reads this, confidence in a dry Saturday is pretty low.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
943 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21/00Z global model suite did not show any improvement in model
spread with respect to the forecast for the end of the week. Global
models show a trough digging across the Rockies and central part of
the country Wednesday, but begin to diverge greatly after that with
the latest GFS still showing a trough cutting off over ern NM/W TX
and the ECMWF showing a more progressive trough moving across the
Mid-South, OH Valley, mid-Atlc, and Northeast by the end of the
week. The Canadian, which in previous runs had shown a scenario
similar to the ECMWF, has now joined the GFS showing the trough
becoming cutoff near El Paso, TX. On the other hand, the ECMWF which
looked more amplified in previous runs, now looks less amplified,
but also slower, and less intense with sfc low development over the
Northeast at the end of the week. The Euro has also been the most
consistent model showing a phased trough, while the GFS has shown a
lot of volatility from run to run. In summary, all of these imply a
large degree of uncertainty heading into next weekend. WPC
preference is to lean more on the more phased trough and a strong
system impacting the mid-Atlc and Northeast next weekend. Hopefully,
global models will come into better agreement in the next day or
two. If the ECMWF scenario eventually turns out correct, we could be
looking a period of strong winds Saturday. Temperatures look to
remain on the mild side into early next week.
This is the latest from the NWS as of 10:20 a.m. :

Friday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 

RUScrew85

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Models are literally all over the place for Saturday in the DC/Balt area, with some showing a nice day and some showing moderate to heavy rain and almost every model has shown major changes from run to run over the last 24 hours. The official NWS forecast is for partly cloudy and dry with seasonable temps, i.e., a high in the mid-50s (average high/low is 54/36F on 11/26 in College Park), but their forecasters discussion mentions the very high uncertainty around the possibility of low pressure system with rain moving across the area. We're simply going to need more time to see how the pattern unfolds. So far, we haven't had any rain of consequence in any game this year, but that may end. We'll see. Would be nice to end the season with a win...

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/

How bad do you wish you were in Buffalo for 6 feet?
 
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RU848789

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This is the latest from the NWS as of 10:20 a.m. :

Friday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
That's why those 1-2 liners are useless. The Euro and UK are dry for all day Saturday and those are the best two models, but they're not always right - the GFS and CMC both show some showers from late morning through the afternoon (not a deluge, but more than nuisance amounts, i.e., 0.1-0.2"). Still too early to make a call on this one.
 
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RU848789

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That's why those 1-2 liners are useless. The Euro and UK are dry for all day Saturday and those are the best two models, but they're not always right - the GFS and CMC both show some showers from late morning through the afternoon (not a deluge, but more than nuisance amounts, i.e., 0.1-0.2"). Still too early to make a call on this one.
Good news for those attending. The models finally have come into good agreement on Saturday being a very nice day in the DC/Balt area, with seasonable temps (highs in the low/mid 50s after morning lows in the upper 30s) and dry conditions, with sunshine early, but increasing clouds as we go through the afternoon. Any rain should hold off until at least after sunset and probably until late evening.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While models disagreed significantly a couple of days ago, model
guidance continues to be in much better agreement today. A cutoff
low will slowly be moving from Texas towards our area on Saturday.
Surface high pressure overhead and upper level ridging ahead of the
approaching low will bring dry conditions and possibly a break in
cloud cover Saturday morning. As the low moves to our west over the
Great Lakes, the associated cold front will move overhead bringing
increased rain chances. There still remains some uncertainty around
the timing of the event with the ECMWF being several hours faster
than the GFS. The ECMWF has rain entering the area Saturday night
while the GFS has rain entering the area later Sunday morning. The
NBM is similar to the GFS with highest POPs during the day on
Sunday. Following the frontal passage, winds will be quite strong
gusting 30-40 mph out of the west. Skies will remain cloudy along
the Allegheny front, but there may be breaks of sun east of the Blue
Ridge.
 
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RU848789

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No major change in the forecast; the one minor change is that it now looks like the high will be near 60F on Saturday - should be fantastic weather for the finale, making us 12 for 12 this year on weather, at least.

I'm here in DC right now with my wife, visiting her sister, who lives near the National Zoo and it's been a stunningly gorgeous day here in DC (got here around 10 am to beat the traffic) with temps around 60F right now. Spent most of the day at the National Gallery, which is great if you like art. Just checked into the St. Gregory Hotel, which is sweet and eating dinner soon at Chef Geoff's, which my SIL says is great. We'll see. I even got "approval" to go to a bar to watch the US-England match, while they do some shopping tomorrow. Couldn't swing the game, though, since we have dinner plans back in NJ with our son and his SO.
 
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retired711

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No major change in the forecast; the one minor change is that it now looks like the high will be near 60F on Saturday - should be fantastic weather for the finale, making us 12 for 12 this year on weather, at least.

I'm here in DC right now with my wife, visiting her sister, who lives near the National Zoo and it's been a stunningly gorgeous day here in DC (got here around 10 am to beat the traffic) with temps around 60F right now. Spent most of the day at the National Gallery, which is great if you like art. Just checked into the St. Gregory Hotel, which is sweet and eating dinner soon at Chef Geoff's, which my SIL says is great. We'll see. I even got "approval" to go to a bar to watch the US-England match, while they do some shopping tomorrow. Couldn't swing the game, though, since we have dinner plans back in NJ with our son and his SO.
I used to live on Connecticut Avenue right across from the Zoo. It is a lovely area. I myself prefer the older wing of the National Gallery to the new one, but both are wonderful. Have you gone to the Phillips Collection near Dupont Circle? There is a lot of great art to see there, including Renoir's Luncheon of the Boating Party. Enjoy the rest of your visit! Go Rutgers!!
 
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RU848789

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I used to live on Connecticut Avenue right across from the Zoo. It is a lovely area. I myself prefer the older wing of the National Gallery to the new one, but both are wonderful. Have you gone to the Phillips Collection near Dupont Circle? There is a lot of great art to see there, including Renoir's Luncheon of the Boating Party. Enjoy the rest of your visit! Go Rutgers!!
We did selected tours of the old and the new wings and both were great, as was the sculpture garden across the way. Just read a bit about the Phillips Collection and it's now on the list of things to do tomorrow, thanks, especially given Renoir's Luncheon of the Boating Party, which just so happens to be one of our favorites in another form - Seward Johnson (Robert Wood Johnson's grandson) did an amazing sculpture recreation of the painting, which is one of the centerpieces at Grounds for Sculpture in Hamilton, NJ. If you've never been to GFS, it's worth a visit, including a stop at Rats, one of the best restaurants in NJ, which is built next to a pond that has been made into a homage of Monet's Waterlillies and Japanese Bridge.

2560px-Pierre-Auguste_Renoir_-_Luncheon_of_the_Boating_Party_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg
 

retired711

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We did selected tours of the old and the new wings and both were great, as was the sculpture garden across the way. Just read a bit about the Phillips Collection and it's now on the list of things to do tomorrow, thanks, especially given Renoir's Luncheon of the Boating Party, which just so happens to be one of our favorites in another form - Seward Johnson (Robert Wood Johnson's grandson) did an amazing sculpture recreation of the painting, which is one of the centerpieces at Grounds for Sculpture in Hamilton, NJ. If you've never been to GFS, it's worth a visit, including a stop at Rats, one of the best restaurants in NJ, which is built next to a pond that has been made into a homage of Monet's Waterlillies and Japanese Bridge.

2560px-Pierre-Auguste_Renoir_-_Luncheon_of_the_Boating_Party_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg
Are you familiar with the dispute over Seward Johnson's father's will? The father sought to disinherit his children and leave his estate to a Polish immigrant maid he had recently married. The father's opinion of his children is unprintable -- one child had a taste for threesomes. The children challenged the will. The case was settled out of court. The maid moved back to Poland and was the richest person there at the time of her death.
 

RU848789

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Are you familiar with the dispute over Seward Johnson's father's will? The father sought to disinherit his children and leave his estate to a Polish immigrant maid he had recently married. The father's opinion of his children is unprintable -- one child had a taste for threesomes. The children challenged the will. The case was settled out of court. The maid moved back to Poland and was the richest person there at the time of her death.
Yeah, I recall reading about it a few years back - just another data point showing that money doesn't guarantee happiness. I know not everyone in the art world loves his work, but my wife and I both love it and also like the fact that he founded and nurtured GFS from a small start-up to the great collection it is now. Plus the gardens, within which the sculptures sit, are superb, too.
 

retired711

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Yeah, I recall reading about it a few years back - just another data point showing that money doesn't guarantee happiness. I know not everyone in the art world loves his work, but my wife and I both love it and also like the fact that he founded and nurtured GFS from a small start-up to the great collection it is now. Plus the gardens, within which the sculptures sit, are superb, too.
Yes, one critic has called his work "kitsch." I was not aware that he has had such involvement with the Gardens, which are a wonderful part of NJ's cultural scene.
 
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