ADVERTISEMENT

Weather for WSU @ RU: Warm w/Light Showers Possible/Likely

RU848789

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
63,561
42,429
113
Metuchen, NJ
Looks like a very uncertain pattern into the weekend with warm conditions and at least moderate chances for showers. This forecast is likely to remain uncertain until close to game time. After another very warm week, a series of frontal systems is slated to affect this area late in the week with it being possible we'll see a stalled front Friday into Saturday with impulses riding up along it. If we see a stall and a shortwave or two rotating through our area, it would likely be warm and muggy with some showers and t-storms. However, it's also possible a secondary front comes completely through the area by Saturday, triggering showers early, but leading to clearing and cooler conditions for gametime. Not worth trying to elaborate much more, as the forecast will certainly change a few times over the next several days.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/
 
Just watched the second half of the WSU vs Portland State game. Did not really see how the rain was too great a deciding factor in WSU's loss. Still all about blocking and tackling and turnovers. I like our chances.
 
I'd rather have wind than rain to stop a passing game. Rain sometimes helps the receiver because they know when they are going to make a cut and in which direction. Of course harder for all to run in the rain so it does throw timing off,
 
I vote for rain. They can't stop the run in dry weather, wet just makes it even harder.
 
Today's models are showing a faster progression of frontal systems with the last one looking like it will come through early Saturday. If that occurs, any showers should be over by late Friday night or maybe very early (before 9 am) Saturday, leaving the rest of the day under clearing skies and warm temps around 80F. Let's hope that forecast holds (although we really do need the rain, so hope for that on Thursday/Friday), but we're still 6 days out, so can't lock it up yet.
 
Thanks.......just don't want rain......the Wisky game was brutal last year..and though it cleared up for the PSU and Michigan games - the rain made it havoc for the tailgates and game prep, etc
 
  • Like
Reactions: Newbrunfus
mikershoein said:
There Washington state- doesn't it rain 300 days a year there
Click to expand...

Actually not at all. Pullman WA is in SE WA and is not that far from having desert conditions. Pullman only receives about 20" of rain per year (desert level is typically <10"/year) vs. the 40"+ in the NYC/NJ area (and in Seattle, which is no wetter than here - just cloudier with more days of rain but not more rain).

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/pullman/washington/united-states/uswa0356
 
This is one of those forecasts that looks great on the surface, as all of the "official" forecasts are showing warm and dry conditions for Saturday, but the uncertainty level is still pretty high, with model disagreement on how the frontal systems evolve. This is where one needs to look at the NWS discussions to glean further details (see excerpts from the AFD below). Still hoping for it to be dry, but some showers cannot be ruled out at this point, although no models are calling for washout levels of rain.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BIT OF A SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THIRD SYSTEM, MAKING THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD PUSH THE HUMID AIR OFF THE COAST. EVEN
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

WE WILL FORECAST GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE FLUCTUATING
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IF CERTAIN TRENDS CONTINUE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
So, this afternoon's model runs have come into better agreement on the main front pushing through our area by Friday afternoon/evening, with some potentially heavy rain on Thursday. Behind the front it will be warm (low 80s) and dry with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels should be tolerable - conditions look to be very similar to this past Saturday. Not especially hot, except when you're in the sun all day. And the next low pressure system bringing potential for some rain looks to reach us on Sunday. Since we're still 5 days out and there's possible precip within 18 hours on either side of the tailgates/game, I wouldn't say we're 100% locked up for a dry game, but we're close (enough to take the slight chance of showers out of the thread title).
 
#s I would still be a bit guarded about this weekend especially with another wave for Sunday possibly...plus given the dry begets dry and how rain events have underperformed the past few months, I am even skeptical on Thursdays forecast. I will feel much better when we get to Friday

One thing though it will be very warm again...yeah low 80s doesn't sound hot but as you said when you are in the stadium it is absolutey brutal...see yesterday
 
the NWS introduced a 30% chance of showers for Saturday mainly to cover their bases as the front is just off shore. Most likely we will have a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds and temps around 80 but will not be ready to lock it in until possibly Friday.
 
bac2therac said:
the NWS introduced a 30% chance of showers for Saturday mainly to cover their bases as the front is just off shore. Most likely we will have a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds and temps around 80 but will not be ready to lock it in until possibly Friday.
Click to expand...

They introduced that 30% chance of showers for "Saturday Night" which is after 6 pm, not for Saturday, in general, but they also qualified the statement by saying the chance of showers is for after 9 pm. They've been carrying a "slight chance" (~20%) of showers during the day on Saturday in their tabular forecasts for a couple of days now, without mentioning that chance in the official forecast, which is why I said we're not 100% locked up for a dry day. But a dry day is the way I'd be right now. And even if there were a shower or two very late in the day, the precip would be very light, i.e., <0.05", which would probably feel nice after a warm day in the sun.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=233&map_y=80#.Ve-LHRHBzGf
 
bac2therac said:
#s I would still be a bit guarded about this weekend especially with another wave for Sunday possibly...plus given the dry begets dry and how rain events have underperformed the past few months, I am even skeptical on Thursdays forecast. I will feel much better when we get to Friday

One thing though it will be very warm again...yeah low 80s doesn't sound hot but as you said when you are in the stadium it is absolutey brutal...see yesterday
Click to expand...

True... but big difference between a noon kickoff and 3:30 kickoff. Much lower sun angle, especially by the 2nd half.
 
RU848789 said:
They introduced that 30% chance of showers for "Saturday Night" which is after 6 pm, not for Saturday, in general, but they also qualified the statement by saying the chance of showers is for after 9 pm. They've been carrying a "slight chance" (~20%) of showers during the day on Saturday in their tabular forecasts for a couple of days now, without mentioning that chance in the official forecast, which is why I said we're not 100% locked up for a dry day. But a dry day is the way I'd be right now. And even if there were a shower or two very late in the day, the precip would be very light, i.e., <0.05", which would probably feel nice after a warm day in the sun.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=233&map_y=80#.Ve-LHRHBzGf
Click to expand...

Interesting turn of events. The NWS in Philly has put the 30% chance of showers (and t-storms) in their daytime forecast for Saturday for P-way/Central Jersey, while the NWS in NYC has the daytime hours being dry with no chance of rain for neighboring locations, like Staten Island and Union County. Several other sources in the local media are calling for dry conditions on Saturday during the day (with showers in the evening), but the NWS putting that 30% chance of showers into the forecast is certainly enough of a reason to put the "slight chance of showers" back in the thread title. Let's hope the showers hold off until after the game.
 
RU848789 said:
Interesting turn of events. The NWS in Philly has put the 30% chance of showers (and t-storms) in their daytime forecast for Saturday for P-way/Central Jersey, while the NWS in NYC has the daytime hours being dry with no chance of rain for neighboring locations, like Staten Island and Union County. Several other sources in the local media are calling for dry conditions on Saturday during the day (with showers in the evening), but the NWS putting that 30% chance of showers into the forecast is certainly enough of a reason to put the "slight chance of showers" back in the thread title. Let's hope the showers hold off until after the game.
Click to expand...

Kind of odd that the NWS office forecast discrepancy continues. Philly office calling for 0.1-0.2" of rainfall in the 7 am to 7 pm timeframe in most of Central Jersey (first graphic below), whereas the NYC office is calling for no measurable rain during that same timeframe for neighboring locations, like Staten Island and Union County (2nd graphic). Most other weather sources are aligned with the NYC office. Temps will be near 80F, so any light rain showers shouldn't put as much of a damper on as they would if it were 50F.

Plotter.php


Plotter.php
 
I told you guys I wouldn't be confident in this forecast until the Thursday event happened and we got to Friday. That Sunday system wants to move in quicker but besides that the aimass will be humid and unstable and that could trigger a shower during the day. Overall we should be okay but could have a showeror two around greater chances in the eveing
 
My first post about this remaining uncertain until close to gametime looks prescient. Still significant discrepancy among the NWS offices and other major weather outlets. NWS Philly still calling for 0.1-0.2" of rain during tailgating and the game (with more possible in t-storms), while the NWS in NYC is still only calling for <0.1" of rain before 8 pm for very nearby areas - can see it in the updated graphics above (which are "live"). Most other media outlets just calling for a slight chance of showers before Saturday evening.

NWS-NYC discussion makes a great point about the GFS being the outlier in bringing the precip in faster than the other models, i.e., during Saturday afternoon. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Personally, I'd be surprised to see much rain before 6 pm based on what I've seen so far, and even 0.1 or 0.2" of rain when it's 75-80F, shouldn't bother people too much. Since I'll be on vacation in OC for this game and since rain may actually help us against WSU (they certainly did poorly in the rain last week), maybe I'll root for rain, lol.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS
ITS ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
QUEBEC BY LATE MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OR
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY WEST OF NYC.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
well yesterday they weren't calling for anything more than isolated and look what happened in some places, I do think there is somewhat covering off bases given yesterdays event and that todays event is performing.

you say .1 of rain is nothing but believe me any rain during tailgating or the game is a total buzzkill for 99% of us
 
bac2therac said:
well yesterday they weren't calling for anything more than isolated and look what happened in some places, I do think there is somewhat covering off bases given yesterdays event and that todays event is performing.

you say .1 of rain is nothing but believe me any rain during tailgating or the game is a total buzzkill for 99% of us
Click to expand...

bac - as I've said dozens of times, predicting summertime mesoscale convection/t-storms with regard to location and intensity is essentially impossible. That's why forecasters always use the "30% chance of showers and t-storms with 0.1-0.25" of rain possible, except higher amounts possible in localized thunderstorms" language. It's because they know the general macroscale conditions (heat, vertical movements of air, shear, etc.) will exist, but the science is not good enough yet to pinpoint when and where these storms will hit.

That's why you often get locations with 1" of rain and almost no rain a town or two away. This doesn't happen in the colder months (far less energy in the atmosphere). Having said that, the macroscale conditions are more energetic/juicier today (and yesterday) than they'll be on Saturday afternoon, so the likelihood of heavy, local rains is less and the likelihood of many or most places being dry is greater.

And while 0.1" of rain can be a buzzkill for some, it's certainly less of a buzzkill when you're not also shivering due to the cold and it simply won't be cold on Saturday.
 
Unfortunately the models keep speeding things up...we might be ok for tailgates but during the game could be questionable
 
#s you are going to have to do a better job at updating for the peanut gallery...they keep posting in a separate thread
 
RU848789 said:
bac - as I've said dozens of times, predicting summertime mesoscale convection/t-storms with regard to location and intensity is essentially impossible. That's why forecasters always use the "30% chance of showers and t-storms with 0.1-0.25" of rain possible, except higher amounts possible in localized thunderstorms" language. It's because they know the general macroscale conditions (heat, vertical movements of air, shear, etc.) will exist, but the science is not good enough yet to pinpoint when and where these storms will hit.

That's why you often get locations with 1" of rain and almost no rain a town or two away. This doesn't happen in the colder months (far less energy in the atmosphere). Having said that, the macroscale conditions are more energetic/juicier today (and yesterday) than they'll be on Saturday afternoon, so the likelihood of heavy, local rains is less and the likelihood of many or most places being dry is greater.

And while 0.1" of rain can be a buzzkill for some, it's certainly less of a buzzkill when you're not also shivering due to the cold and it simply won't be cold on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Word.
 
RU848789 said:
My first post about this remaining uncertain until close to gametime looks prescient. Still significant discrepancy among the NWS offices and other major weather outlets. NWS Philly still calling for 0.1-0.2" of rain during tailgating and the game (with more possible in t-storms), while the NWS in NYC is still only calling for <0.1" of rain before 8 pm for very nearby areas - can see it in the updated graphics above (which are "live"). Most other media outlets just calling for a slight chance of showers before Saturday evening.

NWS-NYC discussion makes a great point about the GFS being the outlier in bringing the precip in faster than the other models, i.e., during Saturday afternoon. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Personally, I'd be surprised to see much rain before 6 pm based on what I've seen so far, and even 0.1 or 0.2" of rain when it's 75-80F, shouldn't bother people too much.
Click to expand...

Still major discrepancy between the NWS in Philly (close to 1/4" of rain forecast from 2-8 pm Sat) vs. the NWS in NYC for neighboring locations (<0.05" of rain from 2-8 pm), as you can see in the graphics from my earlier post above, which are live. More media outlets favoring the drier forecast. Going to be a close call. I'm siding with the drier forecasts, especially for the tailgates, since I haven't been that impressed with the Philly discussions (they've had some turnover) - and this is not wishcasting, as I won't be at the game.
 
Philly office now saying 60% chance of showers (including possible T-storms) after 2:00 pm. Not looking good for that "dry" prediction, numbers.

Thank goodness it will be warm.
 
Looking like the outlier (NWS-Philly) may end up being right, as the NWS-NYC office forecast and some other media outlet forecasts have moved towards a wetter/earlier solution, although WCTC still holding off on any rainfall until about halftime of the game and Craig Allen thinking we won't see any showers until near sunset (7 pm). Regardless, showers now looking more likely for the game, although tailgates should still be dry to mostly dry. Rainfall amounts are still forecast to be light (0.1" or so) up through the end of the game. Heavier rain is forecast for the evening and overnight.
 
Last edited:
its all about timing, if this system continues to speed up like has been the trend we could have some wet times. if it slows down a bit, we skate free

Everyone go find your ponchos
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

RU848789

Weather for RU @ NE: Dry and Hot (but not humid) and Breezy

Replies
27
Views
2K
Rutgers Football
RU848789
RU848789
RU848789

Weather for RU @ MSU: Mostly Cloudy, Cold and Likely Breezy/Windy with a Few Flurries Possible

Replies
19
Views
802
Rutgers Football
beaced
B
RU848789

OT: Minor to Moderate Snowfall for Most Fri Night/Sat morning; then a frigid few days

Replies
131
Views
5K
Rutgers Football
RU848789
RU848789
RU848789

OT: Update on SoCal Weather

Replies
47
Views
3K
Rutgers Football
Caliknight
Caliknight
RU848789

Weather for UW @ RU: Should be warm, cloudy and mostly dry, but a few sprinkles/light showers are possible

Replies
125
Views
8K
Rutgers Football
RU848789
RU848789
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back