BACATOLOGY: 2/13 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[bac2therac]

Would mean we'd be in Birmingham, wonderful.

Lunardi has us as an 8 today as well.

yeah Palm has us a 10...9th team in. Matrix has us a 6 as of last night but I think that ticks downward definitely as more update

would not be shocked that with a loss at Wisconsin, we show up in a few last 4 ins...especially Palm....I think we are still above that easily even with a loss at Wisconsin.

 

[RU23]

We matchup well with Wiscy and need to beat them…Hepburn and the frosh should be in hell against our big guards. Crowl typically does nothing against Cliff. Wahl will have his way but Caleb and Aundre need to limit him

 

[kcg88]

FAU losing to Middle Tennessee but they're in position to absorb a loss plus another in the C-USA tournament and still get an at large.

 

[kcg88]

Florida Atlantic does take the loss, but it's only Q2. Maybe drops them from the 9 to the 10 line but not in danger.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Last 2 years only 2 teams made the NCAA tournament with a wins above bubble that was negative

Last year RU
Year before Utah State

Right now RU is a -0.6

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Last 2 years only 2 teams made the NCAA tournament with a wins above bubble that was negative

Last year RU
Year before Utah State

Right now RU is a -0.6

What is “wins above bubble”

 

[rubjk]

What is “wins above bubble”

YUSAG Bracketology | Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group

sports.sites.yale.edu

 

[kcg88]

Arizona State loses (Q2) at home to Colorado.

Memphis up on UCF in the second half but playing without Kendric Davis for at least the rest of the game.

 

[fluoxetine]

YUSAG Bracketology | Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group

sports.sites.yale.edu

They didn't even have us in the first 16 teams out? Pretty big miss.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

They didn't even have us in the first 16 teams out? Pretty big miss.

Eddie Jordan couldn’t have been too happy

 

[fluoxetine]

Wait now I'm confused. I don't think that link is for last season.

 

[rubjk]

Wait now I'm confused. I don't think that link is for last season.

It is. I posted it for the definition of wins against bubble, didn’t even notice the rest.

 

[fluoxetine]

It is. I posted it for the definition of wins against bubble, didn’t even notice the rest.

It's not; they have North Carolina as a one seed. Looks like 2019 maybe (I realize this isn't the point of the post)

 

[bac2therac]

Florida Atlantic does take the loss, but it's only Q2. Maybe drops them from the 9 to the 10 line but not in danger.

They can't afford another one regular season for a possible at large

 

[kcg88]

Memphis pulls a rabbit out of their hat. With some helps from the refs swallowing their whistles as they chased around UCF trying to create a turnover down by 1 with the shot clock off. They managed to scoop it and score and win the game.

 

[bac2therac]

Arizona State loses (Q2) at home to Colorado.

Memphis up on UCF in the second half but playing without Kendric Davis for at least the rest of the game.

Never liked the ASU resume..in the grand scheme they have those 3 big games to end the regular season to play their way in

 

[kcg88]

PAC 12 going as expected with Utah down 15 at Arizona, their last regular season chance at a haymaker to enter the picture. USC very easily handling business against terrible Cal.

 

[bac2therac]

St Marys really struggled in the 2nd half, fortunate that time ran out for San Diego

Iowa is OFFICIALLY locked in now

 

[bac2therac]

Kennesaw State now takes over as the AQ from the Atlantic Sun by knocking off Liberty

 

[bac2therac]

Hartford played their last game as a D1 program tonight losing to Merrimack

 

[bac2therac]

Its bullshit that Stonehill playing in its first year and in first place in the Northeast Conference is not eligible due to transition rules

Merrimack also not eligible due to transition in the Northeast conference, one more year to go for them

 

[bac2therac]

Maryland is probably jockeying with RU on the 8 line right now. Its close. Maryland has the cleaner profile and better ooc schedule and actually has a ooc win...Miami that RU does not have. RU has the better win at Purdue. Tight but both may be slightly ahead of Michigan State. Terps do have a shot at rising to 7 or even 6 with a strong finish.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

We matchup well with Wiscy and need to beat them…Hepburn and the frosh should be in hell against our big guards. Crowl typically does nothing against Cliff. Wahl will have his way but Caleb and Aundre need to limit him

I agree with this.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Maryland is probably jockeying with RU on the 8 line right now. Its close. Maryland has the cleaner profile and better ooc schedule and actually has a ooc win...Miami that RU does not have. RU has the better win at Purdue. Tight but both may be slightly ahead of Michigan State. Terps do have a shot at rising to 7 or even 6 with a strong finish.

Preach baby preach! Are we in?! Can we afford a dump in Wisconsin? If so, what next?

 

[bac2therac]

loss to Wisconsin probably has RU straddling 9/10

 

[bac2therac]

Unbelievably RU is still a 6 in the matrix wow

mainly coming from the older brackets of people who dont update daily..otherwise the newer brackets have RU anywhere from 7-10 on average

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Unbelievably RU is still a 6 in the matrix wow

I don't know how that is possible but I will take your word for it. I know you make the best picks around here historically.

 

[bac2therac]

its only because some havent update, seeing more 8, 9 on average

 

[kcg88]

(Friday, 10:30) New Mexico (49%) at San Jose State - A very loseable game for a Lobos squad that's now lost four in a row and five of six. They've got two Q1 games after this that need to split but they can't get caught looking forward.

(12:00) Rutgers at Wisconsin - Honestly going to call this one a Double Bubble Special because with a loss Rutgers would be squarely in the bubble range. So not assigning a percentage.

(12:00) Seton Hall (15%) at UConn - Seton Hall has nine Big East wins but only one is over a team rated in the top 85... that would be a one point win over UConn. They badly need to add some heft to their resume. If they don't win this one they might need to go 3-0 the rest of the way.

(12:00) Texas Tech at West Virginia - Somehow a Double Bubble Special. If Texas Tech won this game both would be 15-12. Mountaineers have the far better resume with wins over PItt and Auburn but Tech would at least be drawing live.

(1:00) Tennessee at Kentucky (64%) - Another rematch of an upset. Kentucky turned their season around by winning at Tennessee but they're not out of the woods yet. A season sweep of the Vols would be a big feather.

(2:00) Florida at Arkansas (72%) - Razorbacks have dropped two straight and still have road games at Alabama and Tennessee remaining. They can't afford to lose at home to Florida who lost their best player with a broken hand.

(2:00) Oklahoma State (37%) at TCU - Horned Frogs are scuffling without Mike Miles and if they lose this one then we can start discussing what happens in the (still unlikely) event they lose out. But the Cowboys would get their 17th win here and all but clinch a spot in the field.

(2:00) Wake Forest (24%) at Miami - The Demon Deacons are hanging around. The big knock on their profile is a 1-6 record in Q1 games. This one and their next one (at NC State) are both Q1. At a minimum they need to split these.

(3:30) Mississippi State (62%) at Ole Miss - The Bulldogs had won five straight before falling at home to fellow bubbler Kentucky. Now they've got to go on the road to their rival to try and rebound. A win doesn't do much but a loss is costly.

(5:00) Pittsburgh (42%) at Virginia Tech - This win would basically lock up the Panthers provided they don't do something dumb and lose to Georgia Tech. Like the Hokies did on Wednesday. VT has taken two awful losses to GT and BC... I suppose there is a case they're a bubble team too if they can win out but we'll give the number to Pitt here.

(6:00) Utah at Arizona State (56%) - The Sun Devils have been playing terrible basketball lately. Since starting 15-3 they've had a four-game losing streak and now in their last four they're 2-2 with two home losses and two road squeakers over bad teams. Their profile is fading fast and yet with three Q1 games to finish the year after this one (all on the road) they remain technically alive.

(6:00) Texas A&M (48%) at Missouri - The Aggies meanwhile are as hot as anyone and will try for another Q1 win to keep putting their two Q4 losses in the rearview mirror.

(7:00) Clemson (84%) at Louisville - The Tigers took out their frustrations with a 40-point thrashing of Florida State last time out. They'll need that same energy against Louisville who at least has not fully quit on the season. They just played Virginia very tight. Needless to say a loss by Clemson here just about does it.

(8:00) Nevada at Utah State - Double Bubble Special. Utah State is on life support despite their NET (again: zero Q1 wins, two Q4 losses just isn't going to get consideration). This will only be Q2 at this time but Nevada is close enough that it could age well. The Wolf Pack are in much better shape and a Q1 loss here doesn't really hurt them much. Their final four games after this are against non-tournament teams so they just need to tread water. Wouldn't be surprised to see a convincing USU win because they should be playing a lot harder.

(8:00) Michigan State at Michigan (54%) - Going to be an emotional game for the Spartans and that was before you add in the rivalry element. The Wolverines need to go 4-1 in their final five to have a shot and none of them are easy.

(9:00) Penn State (78%) at Minnesota - Penn State saved their season with a home win over Illinois last time out. Now they get to catch their breath and prepare for a final push.

(10:00) Stanford at USC (75%) - Trojans rebounded from a horrible loss at Oregon State by demolishing Cal, but now it's back to facing teams with a pulse.

17 games. Three double bubble specials. In the other 14, we've got 7.6 expected wins for the bubble.

Off the board: Oklahoma plays at Texas. If they win that then they'll be back above .500 and we can start including them again. Auburn at Vanderbilt. Tigers are safe enough for now.

Look ahead: With the NFL over Sundays get a little more exciting. But only a little. Memphis has their first shot at Houston. Oregon has to play at feisty Washington State. North Carolina goes on the road in a rivalry game at NC State. Boise State hosts a solid UNLV squad. And Iowa and Northwestern battle for Big 10 seeding.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You need to contact Tootsie Roll (they own Double Bubble) and see if you can get sponsored.

 

[bac2therac]

So just going to take a rough look, not a complete scrub of where the seeding may stand heading into the weekend.....

Let me first say the 7 through the first 9 right now is INCREDIBLY CLOSE. Like razor thin margins. That is 9 schools oh so close where it is hard to separate. So these schools could fall anywhere on these seeds including RU. Cases can be made for or against. Other bracketologists may weight things differently. I see Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State very very tight right now. While RU has the best win, Maryland has better metrics, MSU has better schedule stuff. All have tossup games this weekend that may provide some answers. Just becomes so schools are hot like Maryland and some cold like Rutgers, I do not want to overcorrect. Its still body of work.

A loss by Rutgers at Wisconsin would be a Q1 loss. Its not a bad loss per see. However RU would now be down to 16-11 and a not so good 9-11 in Q1/2/3. Depending on other results, RU could even stay an 8 but they also could fall down as low as 10, even 11. Wisconsin could move to a 10 or even 9 with a win. They likely could sustain a loss but may fall into the last 4 in.

I am more bullish on seeding with Pitt tending to put aside their warts because they have great wins AND because they are the AQ from the ACC as of today they get an extra nudge in seeding. That could change. A huge impact game for them at Va Tech on Saturday that wouldnt move them up but could possibly drop them down considerably



7 SEEDS

• MISSOURI
• ILLINOIS
• DUKE
• PITT

8 SEEDS

• RUTGERS
• AUBURN
• MICHIGAN STATE
• MARYLAND

9 SEEDS

• PROVIDENCE
• OKLAHOMA STATE
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE
• ARKANSAS

10 SEEDS

• WEST VIRGINIA
• TEXAS A & M
• NEVADA
• FLORIDA ATLANTIC

11 SEEDS

• MEMPHIS
• WISCONSIN
• KENTUCKY
• BOISE STATE
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• USC

FIRST 4 OUT

• NORTH CAROLINA
• CLEMSON
• PENN STATE
• OREGON

NEXT FOUR OUT

• SETON HALL
• NEW MEXICO
• CHARLESTON
• WAKE FOREST

 

[bac2therac]

Florida Atlantic drops down to a 10 seed for me. They cannot sustain another regular season loss and then lose in the CUSA tourney IMO.

However I think its still more than likely that if they win the rest of their conference games and take a loss in the CUSA tourney they will get a bid HOWEVER in that case they almost assuredly wind up in the first four game in Dayton.

Southern Miss was blown out by 31 last night by South Alabama. Their at large hopes were extinguished. Dangerous team but need to win the Sun Belt.

Charleston is up to 25-3 with two more regular season games left. If they lose in the Colonial tourney and finish 28-4 that is a gaudy win total. Will be considered.

Oral Roberts will be an interesting case. They have been running through the Ohio Valley and NET is solid despite falling some spots last night. Would also be considered with a loss in their tournament.

I see no chance for more than one bid out of the Atlantic 10.

I predict one zombie school not on the last 8 out will make a late run for a bid.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If Wisconsin beats RU. I’d have to think they would be right next to each other

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I predict one zombie school not on the last 8 out will make a late run for a bid.

Wont be New Mexico state

 

[bac2therac]

If Wisconsin beats RU. I’d have to think they would be right next to each other

yes

RU still has the win at Purdue that they hope to milk forever....thats why I dont like Purdue losing last night.

Wisky is suffering from a bad NET that could limit their seeding. However their sos is way better than RU both overall and OOC. Plus they dont have 2 Q3 losses

I really hope Pike can find someone that can figure out how to schedule without it being ranked 300 plus every year. Yes it matters

 

[RU23]

So just going to take a rough look, not a complete scrub of where the seeding may stand heading into the weekend.....

Let me first say the 7 through the first 9 right now is INCREDIBLY CLOSE. Like razor thin margins. That is 9 schools oh so close where it is hard to separate. So these schools could fall anywhere on these seeds including RU. Cases can be made for or against. Other bracketologists may weight things differently. I see Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State very very tight right now. While RU has the best win, Maryland has better metrics, MSU has better schedule stuff. All have tossup games this weekend that may provide some answers. Just becomes so schools are hot like Maryland and some cold like Rutgers, I do not want to overcorrect. Its still body of work.

A loss by Rutgers at Wisconsin would be a Q1 loss. Its not a bad loss per see. However RU would now be down to 16-11 and a not so good 9-11 in Q1/2/3. Depending on other results, RU could even stay an 8 but they also could fall down as low as 10, even 11. Wisconsin could move to a 10 or even 9 with a win. They likely could sustain a loss but may fall into the last 4 in.

I am more bullish on seeding with Pitt tending to put aside their warts because they have great wins AND because they are the AQ from the ACC as of today they get an extra nudge in seeding. That could change. A huge impact game for them at Va Tech on Saturday that wouldnt move them up but could possibly drop them down considerably



7 SEEDS

• MISSOURI
• ILLINOIS
• DUKE
• PITT

8 SEEDS

• RUTGERS
• AUBURN
• MICHIGAN STATE
• MARYLAND

9 SEEDS

• PROVIDENCE
• OKLAHOMA STATE
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE
• ARKANSAS

10 SEEDS

• WEST VIRGINIA
• TEXAS A & M
• NEVADA
• FLORIDA ATLANTIC

11 SEEDS

• MEMPHIS
• WISCONSIN
• KENTUCKY
• BOISE STATE
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• USC

LAST 4 OUT

• NORTH CAROLINA
• CLEMSON
• PENN STATE
• OREGON

NEXT FOUR OUT

• SETON HALL
• NEW MEXICO
• CHARLESTON
• WAKE FOREST

*First 4 Out.

Fantastic stuff, can’t disagree with any of this.

Michigan is the easy answer for a team with the talent/schedule to make a run. Unfortunately, we’re on that schedule.

Beat Wiscy.

 

[bac2therac]

Wont be New Mexico state

my guess is Vanderbilt

 

[bac2therac]

*First 4 Out.

Fantastic stuff, can’t disagree with any of this.

Michigan is the easy answer for a team with the talent/schedule to make a run. Unfortunately, we’re on that schedule.

Beat Wiscy.

looking grim for them if they do not beat Michigan State on Saturday

 

[Booty Maximus]

Don’t disagree with any of it all. But the lingering doubt remains that if you’re not good in your conference all season long perhaps you don’t deserve in. Just food for thought. The outrageously high metrics for 5th place in Big East UConn and yet one game ahead of Seton Hall for 6th. Puzzling.

I'm not sure how you quantify that though? With unbalanced conference scheduling, you can't even compare conference records within the same conference. Just sticking with "overall body of work" is the only answer.

 

[MiloTalon13]

Hartford played their last game as a D1 program tonight losing to Merrimack

Significant for us because Gavin Griffiths' mom and dad played/met there.