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Heavy Box Rate

2023 7 games: 41%
2024 7 games: 56%

*source: SIS

What do we think the main reasons are here and how do we win games with offense against the competition that is note the bottom 25% or 33% of defenses we will face this year?

I was happy to see against UCLA we tried successfully to target the outside to the field. I think Athan did very well in these spots and would like to see more of that in neutral game scripts.

2021 and 2022 classes

So I am in the belief that this year is just bad luck- too many injuries and things didn't go our way that were like 50/50 chances to begin with. But another issue really has been what is essentially Fran's 2021 and 2022 classes -the two classes that would cover the backups - have hurt us here. I had a whole long writeup but thought a shorter one that would stir debate would be better. 2022 was a little bad luck as well - 3 linemen medically retired and two very productive players from that class are sitting with season ending injuries - but if you go back those two classes especially at key positions like OL and DE are really not there for support on the second and third string. That's why you are seeing more and more of the 2023 and even the 2024 classes are starting to pass over those classes up and getting some playing time.

The small, but big difference, between 4-3 and 6-1

Ok, so we got off to the 4-0 start and things looked really promising. But, that wasn't without drama and if you think back to both the VaTech and Washington games; our defense was exposed. VaTech didnt figure it out until the second half, and it took several stops in the redzone to beat Washington. They moved the ball down the field with relative ease and yes, we stepped up; but they also missed field goals and that game was on the line at the end, so, could have very easily been a loss.

Takes me to Nebraska, where that could have been a critical win and we probably should have won that game. For whatever reason, our defense was outstanding and we missed several opportunities to punch it in for TDS. Throw out Wisconsin, as that was not ever close. Worst game we have played in two years, so a loss either way. We they play UCLA and our offense steps up, but the defense was once again completly lost.

Win a tough road game at Nebraska and play average defense vs. UCLA, and we are 6-1 and the attitude is extremely positive. Unfortunately, that didn't happen and we are 4-3 with our backs against the wall at USC.

I hope that somehow we can get back on track. A win on Friday and the season is back on.

Grabbed The Hi-Rez Version Of The SLAM Ace Dylan Cover...

... downloaded it, resized it in Photoshop to 7.5" x 9" (the viewable space of the frame I had available), added a dummy SLAM barcode, printed it high-quality on glossy 8.5" x 11" photo paper, framed it and hung it up in my home office. Thought y'all might appreciate it. Crappy smartphone photo doesn't do it justice, but in-person it looks pretty dope:

slam-frame.jpg

Response on Ask The Experts Question on Hoops Center Situation

A poster asked about the Center position for basketball, based on the St. John's exhibition. The post asked, amongts other questions:

"3. Finally, the 5 spot. Ogbole is supposed to be providing defense and rebounding and we didn't see much of either last week. Is there a chance Sommerville or Martini starts at the five? Is there any reason for hope here? I feel this is the position that's making our ceiling lower."

I'll chime in (not supposed to respond in the Ask The Experts thread).

First, here is a link, again, to my post mortem on the exhibition, that gives one person's opinion on the game and players: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/post-mortem-on-exhibition-game-one-persons-view.283338/

Second, as a follow-up to that post mortem, I then charted every RU defensive possession vs St. John's and reached some conclusions ... again, just one person's opinion. See this thread: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ge-every-defensive-possession-charted.283494/

Third, especially following up on the thread involving the charting the defense, I concluded that though Ogbole still has a way to go, and maybe has not shown as much improvement yet as the optimistic people like myself had hoped, I DO see signs of improvement from the glimpse we had last season (which is important), and some hope for Ogbole's continued development. No, he is not going to be much on the offensive side - a few put backs, a couple of back-door or transition baskets (he DOES run the floor really well). BUT ... upon a close review of the exhibition, Ogbole was better than I initially thought, and as I said in my thread, I suspect Pikiell will be happier with Ogbole than many of us when he reviews the film.

Specifically, though Ejiofor chewed RU up, most of his 27 points were when Ogbole was NOT in the game. I counted that Ejiofor scored just 4 points when Ogbole was in the game (though the replay I watched from BTN+ missed 2 minutes of game time where St. John's scored 4 points - not sure if Ejiofor had any of those points - nor if Ogbole was in the game). So ... his defense vs Ejiofor was actually just fine. For what that is worth.

20 years in - Greg is who he is

Great man, father figure, builder of programs

As I’ve said countless times, if I had a son who was fortunate enough to earn a division one football scholarship, and even more fortunate to be offered one by this prestigious university, I would love for Greg to Coach him

But he is who he is at the stage, head coach wise
Two decades in, he is not going to change

Coaches D w the best of them
Put an emphasis on special teams
And generally, the guys play extremely hard

But this is big boy Division I football
And unfortunately, the ceiling with this guy is eight wins, especially in the Big Ten

I know were depleted with the injuries, but this season matched up perfectly to make a big run

No Michigan
No Ohio State
No Cult

We’re five years in to his second tenure here, and he had a stent in Tampa as an NFL coach and Ohio State as a defensive coordinator

He said, ample time to learn from elite coaches,, and gravitate towards the modern day college football

Aside from not running his coaches into the ground and berating scouts and media alike, I do not see much change from GS 1.0 to GS 2.0

I am glad we brought him back and truly felt that he was the only man for this monumental rebuild after Ash completely gutted the program

What he’s done done here twice has been nothing short to miraculous, and for that I will always be grateful

But he is not getting us over the hump to that elite level that I truly believe we can compete at

I know it will never happen, but I would love for him to slide into the a AD slot once we have settled on a president

The guy knows how to get things done politically in this toxic climate of New Jersey, and I believe he would be a successful athletic Director overseeing all of the programs that we have

Just my two cents, I don’t know why I’m even getting frustrated because the man is never going to change, and as I’ve said repeatedly here, we’re not going to be elite under him, but given all the hope and build up for the season, it is extremely disappointing nonetheless

FYI - USA Today Pre-Season Coach's Poll

See this link: https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/basketball/ncaab/coaches-poll/2024-2025/2024-10-23

Highest Big Ten team is Purdue, at #13. Indiana is #18, UCLA is #22, Illinois is #24.

RU gets votes, coming in at #27. Michigan State is #30 and Oregon is #31. Other notables on RU's schedule: Alabama #2, Houston (now no longer on the schedule), #4 ... potential Vegas opponents in the other pod: Creighton # 14, Texas A&M #15, San Diego St (2 votes, tied for #41). Others: Princeton (2 votes tied for #41), , Ohio St #37, (tied), Maryland #39, Wisconsin - 1 vote, #46. FYI, St. Johns is right behind RU at #28.
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Coaching vs. Recruiting

I came across an archived ESPN article by Ivan Maisel which I believe is apropo to the discussion of Greg Schiano 2.0 which took place over this weekend. I set forth an excerpt from the article for you consideration:

“The debate of coaching versus recruiting is no debate at all. No one captured why coaching is more important than recruiting better than Jake Gather, the Florida A&M coaching legend some 50 odd years ago. Gather described the ability of Alabama coach Bear Bryant:

‘He could take his’n and beat your’n … and take your’n and beat his’n.’

Coaching is alchemy. Coaching is two-star plus two-star equals more than five-star. Recruiting may be the lifeblood of college football. But coaching is the brains and the heart and the soul of it.

***
Recruits are grapes. Recruiters are farmers. Coaches are winemakers.”

RU-St. John's Scrimmage - Every Defensive Possession Charted

I am not going to list out each ST. John's offensive possession - and therefore each RU's defensive possession. BUT ... I just rewatched the game on BTN+ and charted each of RU's defensive possessions, except TWO or THREE between the 4 min left and the 2 minute left mark (for some reason the BTN+ replay cut out those 2 minutes).

But after charting the game, I am actually more optimistic about the team - and I was generally pleased anyway. There ARE definitely holes to shore up with defensive rebounding, defensive rotations, help defense, etc. ... but the staff has 3 full weeks to continue that coaching and development, plus another 3 weeks of relatively easier games before Las Vegas ... and RU's defensive generally does improve during the course of the season on top of that.

Here are a few takeaways:

1) Ogbole was much better than the average fan will think. I will bet you the coaching staff will evaluate Ogbole's game vs St. Johns very differently and much better than the casual fan. For example, I will note that St. John's Ejiofor scored 19 2nd Half points - but other than the 2 minutes BTN+ did not show (during which St. John's scored 4 points), Ejiofor only scored TWO points when Ogbole was in the game ... that's right ... just 2 points. In the 1st half, Ejiofor scored 6 points total, but just 2 points while Ogbole was in the game ... and that FG was when Derkack got caught covering Ejiafor on a switch: Ejiofor posted, missed, got his own miss and put it back in. So ... when Ogbole was in the game, during his 21 minutes of playing time, Ejiofor scored just 4 points (though he may have gotten 4 more in the 2 minutes missing from the BTN+ replay). Ejiofor DID get some offensive rebounds when Ogbole was in the game, but Ejiofor NEVER scored himself off those offensive rebounds - Ogbole successfully contested and prevented the put back. I am not saying Ogbole is a star. nor that he did not make mistakes. But I am convinced upon charting the game that Ogbole was MUCH better than I thought initially. I would add that Ogbole reliably ran the floor in transition, on both offense and defense - and never got beaten down the floor by his man, and several times beat HIS man down the floor on offensive transition. As a sub-commentary: Ogbole showed more often than not he knew where to be defensively (not perfect, but relatively solid, IMO). Still, Ogbole DOES have a lot to learn - not trying to minimize that.

2) RU's help defense DOES need work ... no surprise with so many new players and with 3 weeks of practice before any real game. The player who MOST needs work is Harper. With all due respect to the star Harper IS, and WILL BE, there were numerous breakdowns in his off-ball defense. These led to back-doors, lack of help defense and several times failure to box out. When defending off the ball, Harper showed a tendency to stand around watching his teammates, rather than focusing on either his man, or the proper position to be for help defense. Fortunately, these things can be taught and learned. The staff will have good film from the St. John's game to show and teach. Bailey also needs work to be taught when and where to help - but he made fewer of those errors than did Harper, and his ridiculous quickness and leaping ability allowed him several times to recover from being out of position to make excellent help plays from the weakside. Derkack was ... oddly frustrating. Spectacular defense both on the ball and at times in help and in transition defense. But ALSO he was slow to get back several times in defensive transition, and several times lost his man on box outs.

3) Post Defense and Overall: Ogbole was by far and away the best of the 3 centers ... Somerville was not as bad as I initially thought (my apologies to my initial impression) - though he did get absolutely schooled on one drop step move by Ejiofor. Martini was ... okay, no better. He could not defend a taller player in the post when he did not get help - like not at all, no resistance. And he regularly got beaten down the court in defensive transition. Sommerville's biggest issue upon charting the game is something that CAN be cured through practice and experience: He actually did not seem to know where he was supposed to be on the court either on offense or defense ... Ogbole and Martini seemed much more in the flow both offensively and defensively.

FYI: RU's biggest issue in the 2nd half was Richmond, who totally controlled the game with getting seemingly every defensive rebounding, triggering transition offense, getting to the rim (where RU actually defended him decently) - opening things up for his teammates. He is that good, if you think about it. Not that Ejiofor did not have a huge 2nd half - he did (though not against Ogbole) ... but Richmond was the catalyst.

Other notes:

a) Harper was not as bad defensively with his 4th foul as I initially thought (though he did paly a bit of matador defense on 2 plays). In a real game he still would have been removed at the 6+ minute mark when he got his 4th foul to be rested until the 4 minute time out.

b) Pikiell had the wrong mix of players on the floor in the last 2 minutes of the game - and it led directly to the key turnover, maybe BOTH key turnovers at the end. The line up was interesting - RU went small: Bailey at the "5", nominally, plus Harper, Williams, Derkack and Davis. But there were several stoppages, and opportunities to sub offense for defense, which Pikiell did not do. There is no doubt Hayes should have been in the game for offense for either Derkack or Davis - probably Davis. Harper's drive where he was stripped (it was 85-86 St. Johns, St. Johns got 2 FT in transition after that to make it 85-88) was partly because Harper lost a fraction of control of his dribble as he drove (can happen sometimes - atypical for Harper, usually), but also partly because Davis was in the corner and the St. John's defender could cheat much more - if Hayes had been in and in the corner instead, perhaps (not for sure) the St. Johns defender can't or won't cheat as much - and not be in a position to strip the ball on the double team. And, the next possession (also after a stoppage, so an offensive sub was possible), Derkack tried to pass the ball to the top of the key as he was doubled - to Davis ... Richmond stole the ball ... Richmond was playing at the foul line, covering both the top of the key and the access pass to Bailey who had smartly cut down the middle to the middle of the lane. Had Hayes been in the game, perhaps Richmond may have had to cheat a little higher towards Hayes, and that would have allowed Drekack to pass to Bailey in the lane instead. Perhaps Derkack should have passed to Bailey anyway - lofting it high up where only Bailey could have caught it, over Richmond. These are all things to learn by the staff and the team.

I am sure I will think of more as people comment.

Why do they need to interview coaches DURING the game?

It's really not fair to the coaches. I understand doing interviews at halftime and at the beginning of the third quarter, but what's the purpose of an interview while the game is being played? It would drive me crazy as a coach, and they are not going to reveal anything informative anyway.

Scarlet Jerry
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