Week 4 of Bacatology
31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way through the 9 seed line
That takes cares of 28 at larges leaving only 9 open and 21 schools competing for them
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
FOUR SEEDS: Iowa State, Purdue, Arizona, Maryland
FIVE SEEDS: Clemson, Oregon, St Mary’s*, Michigan
SIX SEEDS: UCLA, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisville
SEVEN SEEDS: Illinois, BYU, Kansas, Marquette
EIGHT SEEDS: Memphis*, Connecticut, Gonzaga, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Georgia
TEN SEEDS: Vanderbilt, Utah State, Arkansas, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: Drake*, VCU*, UC San Diego*, Oklahoma
TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/North Carolina, Baylor/Xavier, Liberty*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Yale*, High Point*, Akron*, Lipscomb*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, Troy*, Northern Colorado*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Wofford*, Robert Morris*, Omaha*, Central Connecticut State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, Bryant*, Quinnipiac*/SIUE*, Southern*/American*
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, XAVIER, BAYLOR, INDIANA
FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, DAYTON, BOISE STATE, WAKE FOREST
NEXT 4 OUT: COLORADO STATE, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, SAN FRANCISCO, GEORGE MASON
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
IN
(43) VANDERBILT 20-11: Not sure I would call the Commodores a true bubble team. They appear safe at this point. 5 Quad 1 wins led by wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and at Texas A&M. Throw in wins over Missouri and Ole Miss too. 9-11 vs Q1/2 and 12-11 in Q1/2/3 checks the boxes. The WAB/SOR still good enough at 38/34. However given their first round SEC opponent is in trouble bubble Texas and they have dropped their final 2 which has dinged the overall profile a bit, Vandy would do themselves well to win that game. That is when stuff like the rare air for a an at large 330 SOS non conference comes into play and Vanderbilt are vulnerable to get themselves sucked into the first four grouping with a loss vs Texas....throw in bid stealers and you see the narrow but very unlikely path of them headed to the Crown in Vegas.
(37) UTAH STATE 24-6: Aggies are in pretty good shape. It is just the amount of Mountain West bubbles giving me pause right now to make them a lock. Conference has certainly been controversial the past few years for overall non performance in the NCAA tourney given the amount of bids given. Last year we saw a hint the committee was through with them with some dinged seeding across the board. Still its highly unlikley the Aggies would be the odd man out. Aggies are just 2-3 in Q1 games but both of them on the road..big one at St Marys and other at San Diego State. Q2 is a strong 7-3 putting them 9-6 in Q1/2 with an additional key win over San Diego State. However just 3 wins overall vs the field. Note the loss to Big West AQ UC San Diego. Went 0-2 vs New Mexico and split with two other MVC bubbles Boise and Colorado State. WAB/SOR are all systems go at 36/37 while the SOS is solid enough at 87/111. USU has the 3rd seed and will await the winner of UNLV/Air Force. Obviously a win there makes it academic with a chance to move up a seed line as the tourney progresses. The should be able to sustain a loss there but again a bit uncertain with the bubble swirl from MWC.
(39) ARKANSAS 19-12: Razorbacks got an important Q1 road win at Vandy plus a Q2 home victory over Mississippi State that fortified their resume. Now up to a very good 6-9 in Q1 showing additional wins at Kentucky, Missouri, and non conference over Michigan. Just 2-3 in Q2 but the Q1/2/3 mark is now 12-12 up from a woeful 8-11 a couple weeks ago. Their is a sneaky 7th win vs the field in Q3 vs Lipscomb and a possible 8th with Troy. SOR/WAB moving up to 45/39 and no bad losses. For them its all about avoiding a bad loss as the 9 seed in SEC absorbing another bad loss to 16th seed South Carolina. A loss and things could get western. I can guarantee a win there puts them in the field but cannot guarantee that Arky can avoid the first four. Very tight along the 10s and 11s and perhaps 12s
(51) SAN DIEGO STATE 21-8: Aztecs metrics are a bit of a puzzle. By looking at their resume you would think it should be better. Just 51 overall in the NET and just about the cut line with SOE/WAB 44/42. They have a pair of ginormous non conference wins in Vegas over projected one seed Houston and Creighton. 3-5 in Q1 but a better 5-2 in Q2 shows them completing the sweep of fellow bubble Boise, a key non conference win over UC San Diego plus a win over New Mexico. Split with CSU. Now there is just one blemish a Q3 home loss to UNLV. Yet they are solid 13-8 in Q1/2/3 and with an overall sos of 63 and sparkling non conference sos of 7. One would think with a very solid performance in league combined with their strong OOC performance they should be alright. Still it is hard to beat a team 3 times and that is what the Aztecs need to do as they draw Boise State in their first MWC tourney game. With the Broncs on the wrong side of the bubble, obviously its a more important game for them but can the SDSU sustain a loss there....I would say probably but it becomes hairy if the Broncs end up the MWC AQ. Does this league get 4? Will the Aztecs be relugated to the first four?
(47) OKLAHOMA 19-12: Conference records are not supposed to be considered as a criteria for or against but the Sooners have at least alleviated some concerns. Once just 3-10 in the SEC, they have pushed that mark to 6-12. Still no school has ever received an at large with a conference mark like that so they will be testing history yet the impressiveness of the SEC itself is testing history. OU did manage to take win a big bubble slugfest at Texas that keeps them above the cut line. Conference record aside, this is a NCAA tournament team. The resume says so. 6-10 in Q1 with an impressive trio of non conference wins over Arizona, Michigan, Louisville. That kind of non conference performance is coveted by the selection committee. 10-11 in Q1/2 is very strong. Wins over Mizzou, at Arky, Miss St, Vandy give them a whopping 7 wins vs the field. There is one miscue in Q3 a home loss to LSU that might make the difference between last 4 byes and last 4 in. Matched up with Georgia in the SEC first round and a win there will lock them in. A loss could leave them vulnerable given potential bid stealers but would tend to think they hold on here.
(52) INDIANA 19-12: I continue to stress week after their week there is nothing necessarily strong or even sticks out about the Hoosier profile. It is more about the softness of the bubble around them and more what they have not done wrong. All 12 losses (4-12) are within Q1 so something has to be said for that and the Q1/2/3 mark of 15-12 is going to be better than most around the bubble. Indiana did outlast Ohio State in a true bubble buster game over the weekend but now with the Buckeyes just out of the field, the Hoosiers have just 2 wins vs the field. A really really good one at Michigan State and Purdue at home but its just 2-9 vs the field...7 of their Q1/2 wins are to mediocre also rans and never weres. When Providence is their best OOC win that is a red flag there. The SOR/WAB of 47/44 is just inches above the cut line. Most years a profile like this would need a deep Big 10 tourney run to feel safe. For Indiana a win in their opening round Big 10 vs Oregon will make them a lock and its still about 60/40 they will not even need that one but that would seemingly lock them into a trip to Dayton in the first 4.
(31) BAYLOR 17-13: Do not let that overall NET of 31 fool you, the Bears are not safe. Great try vs Houston but ultimately another loss and that puts them down to 17-13 and that is murky spot historically. Facing a possible 17-14 with a first round loss to Kansas State/Arizona State in the Big 12 tourney would put their bid in serious jeopardy. Michigan got in a few years back at 17-14 and did have a strong sos like the Bears currently at 5/13 so it can happen, its just more the exception than the rule. 5-11 in Q1 but only 3 of those are to in the field schools. Certainly the win over St Johns non conference is the shiny one. The others over Kansas and at Arkansas. 5-1 in Q2 is strong but only WVU is in the field. Yep 10-12 in Q1/2 is strong but 2-1 in Q3 puts them at 12-13...a loss to KSU/ASU shows the bulky loss total a problem would drop it to 12-14. It is a profile that I have seen left out before. The SOR/WAB still working at 39/41 but it has been slipping. The road mark at 3-9 isnt all that hot.
(44) XAVIER 21-10: Muskateers continue to just churn out wins even if they are not of the Q1 variety. That is okay for now. Its the ratchet 2025 bubble and it works. Admittedly 1-8 in Quad 1 games is butt ugly even with the road win at Marquette. Quad 2 though is a strong 8-2 and shows 2 additional wins vs the field over UConn and Creighton. Note wins over bubbles out Wake and Nova. No bad losses and the 5-0 Q3 mark gets them to 14-10 in Q1/2/3 and there is something to be said for the cleanliness. SOR/WAB at 40/46 pretty much in line for where they sit right now in the pecking order. Big East tourney opener for them is Marquette. A win there is likely to be enough. They could sustain a loss but it will be an agonzing Sunday for sure and they will be extremely vulnerable to bid stealers.
40) NORTH CAROLINA 20-12: Tar Heels had their all their marbles game vs Duke and while they kept it close for a while, it ultimately resulted in defeat which leaves them with a unsightly 1-11 Quad 1 mark. I know I hate to do this moving them into the field but welcome to the bubble in 2025. Ultimately maybe a place holder for a probable bid stealer. The Heels certainly played a tough schedule rated 5th OOC but going 1-11 shows you played them, you had your chance and lost. The sole win was UCLA. 7-1 in Q2 makes it better for a 8-11 Q1/2 but do wins over SMU and Dayton move the needle. 14-12 in Q1/2/3 will keep them in contention but that Q3 home loss to Stanford is one they want back. SOR/WAB is just above the cut line at 43/45 for them here. AD Bubba Cunningham is on the selection committee so keep in mind every avenue is going to be taken to get them into field. First up in ACC tourney will be the winner of Pitt/ND followed by quarters with Wake and possible finals vs Duke. Will it matter? Will the committee already made their decision on UNC before the semis? Tough to say.
OUT
(36) OHIO STATE 17-14: Buckeyes got the thrilling overtime win over Nebby in their first bubble game of the week but failed to lock into the field with a win at Indiana in their 2nd and now bounced out of the field. It is simply the bulky loss total at play here. 14 with 15 coming. Not terrible at 6-11 in Q1 with the big road win at Purdue and additional wins in the field vs Maryland and Kentucky. But now with Texas and Nebraska out, its just 3 wns vs field and they were swept by Indiana. 11-14 in Q1/2/3 is a serious red flag. Their resume is not good enough to get in at 17-15 so they absolutely must win their opening Big 10 tourney game vs Iowa and then take down Illinois in the next round. Getting to 18-15 at least gives them a 50/50 shot but winning an additional game possibly against Maryland might lock it up. Then again how long will the committee be paying attention. One round? two?. SOR/WAB of 49/51 is cut below the cut line.
(67) DAYTON 21-9: Not sure any school benefitted more from the weekend bubble action than the Flyers who soared up the pecking order. The Friday win at VCU was huge giving them their 3rd Quad 1 win and 3 win vs the field. 2 very solid wins non conference vs UConn and Marquette are the big ones here. Think that alot of bracketlogists are deep sleeping on them right now. 3-3 in Q1. 4-5 in Q2 for 7-8 in Q1/2 and 14-9 in Q1/2/3 are pretty solid. Perhaps maybe one too many losses in Q2 to the St Bonnies/GWs of the world. The Q3 loss at UMass is unfortunate because without that loss the profile here is not all that different from schools like Indiana and Xavier. The overall NET not good at 67 and the SOR/WAB while improving still lag behind at 55-59. OOC SOS at 55 should be a plus. Still even as they sit 2nd team out its still less than 50/50 that even a trip to the A10 finals and a loss to VCU get them in. Its likely the committee will not sitting around waiting until Sunday for contigency plans.
(45) BOISE STATE 21-9: Broncos had won 9 of 10 heading into the home finale with Colorado State but suffered not a bad loss but a crushing one nonetheless that prevents them from moving into the field. There are a pair of outstanding non conference wins here over Clemson and St Mary's but they make up the only 2 wins in Q1 2-5. Two additional wins vs field vs New Mexico and San Diego State reside in Q2 where the 4-3 gets them up to 6-7 in Q1/2 which admittedly is a bit soft for a bubble school. Q1/2/3 is only 11 and 8 and 10 wins are coming from Quad 4 and that is a red flag. Plus we have not only a Q3 loss to Washington State but now a barely Q4 inexcusable loss to Boston College. Not going to see many or any bubble schools with Q4 losses in or out and its a concern despite those nifty OOC wins. Also concerned about no quality road win and SOR/WAB of 58/55 which puts them clearly out. Broncs draw San Diego State in the Mountain West quarters which is a bigger game for them to win than the Aztecs who have 2 wins already over them. A win there and I suppose a win over the Lobos in the semis can pull them into the field if the committee is still paying attention. A loss likely ends any real hope though they still may find themselves on the last 4 out line due to attrition elsewhere.
(69) WAKE FOREST 21-10: No matter how many times I try to flush the Demon Deacons out of my analysis, they keep finding ways to keep this turd of a resume floating to the soft underbelly that is the 2025 bubble. Wake was waxed by Duke last week in their last shot at a true marquee victory before the ACC tournament. Just 2-7 in Quad 1 highlighted by a non conference win vs Michigan. Q2 sees a better 6-1 that gets them to 8-8 Q1/2 but even there the only win vs field is to barely in the field UNC....2-7 in that catagory. Note the loss to bubble Xavier. The Q3 bad loss to NC State has eeked into Q2 so Wake has just 2 Q3 losses now..to FSU and Virginia. Perhaps with a clean profile one could make a better case. Yet Bubba is going to Bubba, if UNC cannot get in as the ACC 4th perhaps Wake will by hook or crook. Have seen these weak profiles from ACC get in the last several years, low on Q1 wins, just okay in Q1/2 but because they won alot of Q3 games, the committee throws them a bone and at 14-10Q1/2/3 and with to me worrisome is that their SOR/WAB is actually willing at 42/47. Many bracketologists have counted them out but with a possible matchup with UNC looming in the ACC quarters, that could be the play in game for Bubba and his goons.
(54) COLORADO STATE 22-9: Rams got their first Q1 victory of the season on the road at Boise State to keep them in contention. Rams did get the 2nd seed in the Mountain West tourney yet all the metrics and results put them substantially behind all 3 MW bubbles they finished ahead of. An anemic 1-5 in Q1. Just 2-6 vs the field, 2 Q2 wins over Utah State and San Diego State. The Q2 record gets them to 7-8 and they did complete the sweep of Boise There is zero to offer out of conference with a best win of TCU. Unfortunately for the Rams their profile is held down by 2 Q3 losses to Washington and UC Riverside. Perhaps they could overcome one of those but not both given their dearth of quality wins. 11 of 22 wins come from Quad 4 and the SOR/WAB still sluggish at 56/54. Yet as 2nd seed in the Mountain West tourney, they are playing just as well as anyone right now and will be a legit threat to win the whole thing. They get Nevada/Fresno winner in the quarters to set up a possible matchup with Utah State. A win there and trip to the finals will definitely boost their metrics and push them closer but think they fall short though.
(59) NEBRASKA 17-14: In a mere 3 weeks, Nebraska went from the 8/9 game to not only out of the NCAA tournament but out of the Big 10 tourney as well. About stunning a freefall you will ever see in college hoops. There is season is over. There are no games to be played before Selection Sunday and the committee knows that. Nebby will be up on the board for consideration, discussed and left behind. Metrics have sunk across the board, NET down to 59, SOE/WAB screams no at 61/57. It is a shame too because the Huskers do have 5 wins vs the field....4 of them in Q1...at Oregon, at Creighton, Illinois, UCLA and Indiana. 5-10 in Q1 and 9-12 in Q1/2 would have been workable. But they have 2 Q3 losses...Rutgers just a whisper from Q2 but a bad loss nonetheless and Minnesota, also a Q2 loss to USC which isnt far from Q3 but maybe worst of all with so much on the line this week, first with the loss to OSU and then the committee saw them lose at home albeit a Q2 Iowa by 15 in a listless performance in a game they had to have. No school has made it as an at large being 3 games under 500 and Nebby will not be the first.
(42) TEXAS 17-14: Horns scored an important Quad 1 road game earlier in the week to put them right on the cut line but could not pull of a bubble buster game at home vs Oklahoma and now find themselves in serious trouble. Up to 14 losses and that means 15 is around the corner. 5-10 vs Q1 is not bad considering they have 5 wins vs the field in there...Kentucky, at MSU, Tex A&M, Mizzou and at OK. However 3-4 in Q2 leaves them 8-14 in Q1/2 and just 5-13 vs the field, alot of losses. Non conference has nothing of note with the best win being St Joe's and an embarrassing 285 OOC SOS. SOR/WAB continue to slide at 57/52. At just 10-14 in Q1/2/3, it is no bueno territory for the Longhorsn as they would have to pull of 3 SEC tourney wins (Vandy, TexA&M, Tenn) to fix that and the committee is not waiting around for the Longhorns as a 14th SEC school to show up and play make an at large resume in 3 days.
(49) SMU 22-9: Looks like the odd man out from the ACC. Still in consideration because they went 11-0 in Q3 and there is something to be said for a supposed power 5 conference school going 17-9 in Q1/2/3 games. Yet at 0-4 in Q1, 0-5 vs teams in the field, 0-6 vs top 5 acc schools, a 288 OOC SOS where their best win was SEC bottom feeder LSU and their best overall win was at mediocre Pitt, its hard to make a case for the Mustangs. Even a deep run to the ACC finals which could get them Q1 wins over Clemson and Louisville and 25 wins likely will not be enough simply because the committee will not be paying attention for a resume to be built in 4 days.
OTHERS
(62) UC IRVINE 26-5: The GOOD: Q1 road win over UC San Diego, 14-3 on road, SOR/WAB; 54/51 at least merits consideration. The BAD: one win and just one game vs field, ooc sos of 210, 2 Q3 losses to Cal Northridge and Duquense, 22 of 26 wins are Q3/4, overall NET of 62 not good for a mid major school on the bubble. Some bracketologists are making a push for them as an at large but to me just one win over UC San Diego is just not enough here. Certainly a legit shot at winning the Big West Tourney but the Tritons are the ones with the legit at large chances not the Anteaters.
(53) VILLANOVA 18-13: The GOOD: 4 wins vs the field...St Johns, Marquette, UConn, Xavier. 12-12 in Q1/2/3. The BAD: Q4 loss to Columbia sticks out like a sore thumb. In addition 2Q3 losses to Virginia and Georgetown, 2-7 in Q1, 214 OOC SOS, SOR/WAB: 63/72. The Columbia loss blows up the resume. Even a trip to the Big East finals will not get it done as the committee will have long closed the book on them.
(64) SAN FRANCISCO 23-8: The GOOD: No loss outside of Q1/2, wins over St Marys and Boise State, SOR/WAB: 52/50 is not all that far off the cut line The BAD: 1-5 in Q1, 4-8 in Q2, 11 wins in Q4 alone and a whopping 19 of 23 in Q3/4. Meet Gonzaga in WCC semis so a win there to reach the WCC final will be a metric boost but while they inch closer, they are still likely to fall short so they might as well just be a bid stealer and win the whole damn WCC tourney.
(74) GEORGE MASON 23-7: The GOOD: tie for regular season A10 title (albeit 2nd seed), SOR/WAB of 53/56 puts them in consideration at least. The BAD: 1-3 in Quad 1, no wins vs field , 18 out of 23 wins in Q3/4, 2 Q3 losses to Duquense, East Carolina, awful Q4 loss to Central Michigan. On the board but will not make it out of the committee
31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way through the 9 seed line
That takes cares of 28 at larges leaving only 9 open and 21 schools competing for them
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
FOUR SEEDS: Iowa State, Purdue, Arizona, Maryland
FIVE SEEDS: Clemson, Oregon, St Mary’s*, Michigan
SIX SEEDS: UCLA, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisville
SEVEN SEEDS: Illinois, BYU, Kansas, Marquette
EIGHT SEEDS: Memphis*, Connecticut, Gonzaga, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Georgia
TEN SEEDS: Vanderbilt, Utah State, Arkansas, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: Drake*, VCU*, UC San Diego*, Oklahoma
TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/North Carolina, Baylor/Xavier, Liberty*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Yale*, High Point*, Akron*, Lipscomb*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, Troy*, Northern Colorado*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Wofford*, Robert Morris*, Omaha*, Central Connecticut State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, Bryant*, Quinnipiac*/SIUE*, Southern*/American*
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, XAVIER, BAYLOR, INDIANA
FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, DAYTON, BOISE STATE, WAKE FOREST
NEXT 4 OUT: COLORADO STATE, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, SAN FRANCISCO, GEORGE MASON
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
IN
(43) VANDERBILT 20-11: Not sure I would call the Commodores a true bubble team. They appear safe at this point. 5 Quad 1 wins led by wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and at Texas A&M. Throw in wins over Missouri and Ole Miss too. 9-11 vs Q1/2 and 12-11 in Q1/2/3 checks the boxes. The WAB/SOR still good enough at 38/34. However given their first round SEC opponent is in trouble bubble Texas and they have dropped their final 2 which has dinged the overall profile a bit, Vandy would do themselves well to win that game. That is when stuff like the rare air for a an at large 330 SOS non conference comes into play and Vanderbilt are vulnerable to get themselves sucked into the first four grouping with a loss vs Texas....throw in bid stealers and you see the narrow but very unlikely path of them headed to the Crown in Vegas.
(37) UTAH STATE 24-6: Aggies are in pretty good shape. It is just the amount of Mountain West bubbles giving me pause right now to make them a lock. Conference has certainly been controversial the past few years for overall non performance in the NCAA tourney given the amount of bids given. Last year we saw a hint the committee was through with them with some dinged seeding across the board. Still its highly unlikley the Aggies would be the odd man out. Aggies are just 2-3 in Q1 games but both of them on the road..big one at St Marys and other at San Diego State. Q2 is a strong 7-3 putting them 9-6 in Q1/2 with an additional key win over San Diego State. However just 3 wins overall vs the field. Note the loss to Big West AQ UC San Diego. Went 0-2 vs New Mexico and split with two other MVC bubbles Boise and Colorado State. WAB/SOR are all systems go at 36/37 while the SOS is solid enough at 87/111. USU has the 3rd seed and will await the winner of UNLV/Air Force. Obviously a win there makes it academic with a chance to move up a seed line as the tourney progresses. The should be able to sustain a loss there but again a bit uncertain with the bubble swirl from MWC.
(39) ARKANSAS 19-12: Razorbacks got an important Q1 road win at Vandy plus a Q2 home victory over Mississippi State that fortified their resume. Now up to a very good 6-9 in Q1 showing additional wins at Kentucky, Missouri, and non conference over Michigan. Just 2-3 in Q2 but the Q1/2/3 mark is now 12-12 up from a woeful 8-11 a couple weeks ago. Their is a sneaky 7th win vs the field in Q3 vs Lipscomb and a possible 8th with Troy. SOR/WAB moving up to 45/39 and no bad losses. For them its all about avoiding a bad loss as the 9 seed in SEC absorbing another bad loss to 16th seed South Carolina. A loss and things could get western. I can guarantee a win there puts them in the field but cannot guarantee that Arky can avoid the first four. Very tight along the 10s and 11s and perhaps 12s
(51) SAN DIEGO STATE 21-8: Aztecs metrics are a bit of a puzzle. By looking at their resume you would think it should be better. Just 51 overall in the NET and just about the cut line with SOE/WAB 44/42. They have a pair of ginormous non conference wins in Vegas over projected one seed Houston and Creighton. 3-5 in Q1 but a better 5-2 in Q2 shows them completing the sweep of fellow bubble Boise, a key non conference win over UC San Diego plus a win over New Mexico. Split with CSU. Now there is just one blemish a Q3 home loss to UNLV. Yet they are solid 13-8 in Q1/2/3 and with an overall sos of 63 and sparkling non conference sos of 7. One would think with a very solid performance in league combined with their strong OOC performance they should be alright. Still it is hard to beat a team 3 times and that is what the Aztecs need to do as they draw Boise State in their first MWC tourney game. With the Broncs on the wrong side of the bubble, obviously its a more important game for them but can the SDSU sustain a loss there....I would say probably but it becomes hairy if the Broncs end up the MWC AQ. Does this league get 4? Will the Aztecs be relugated to the first four?
(47) OKLAHOMA 19-12: Conference records are not supposed to be considered as a criteria for or against but the Sooners have at least alleviated some concerns. Once just 3-10 in the SEC, they have pushed that mark to 6-12. Still no school has ever received an at large with a conference mark like that so they will be testing history yet the impressiveness of the SEC itself is testing history. OU did manage to take win a big bubble slugfest at Texas that keeps them above the cut line. Conference record aside, this is a NCAA tournament team. The resume says so. 6-10 in Q1 with an impressive trio of non conference wins over Arizona, Michigan, Louisville. That kind of non conference performance is coveted by the selection committee. 10-11 in Q1/2 is very strong. Wins over Mizzou, at Arky, Miss St, Vandy give them a whopping 7 wins vs the field. There is one miscue in Q3 a home loss to LSU that might make the difference between last 4 byes and last 4 in. Matched up with Georgia in the SEC first round and a win there will lock them in. A loss could leave them vulnerable given potential bid stealers but would tend to think they hold on here.
(52) INDIANA 19-12: I continue to stress week after their week there is nothing necessarily strong or even sticks out about the Hoosier profile. It is more about the softness of the bubble around them and more what they have not done wrong. All 12 losses (4-12) are within Q1 so something has to be said for that and the Q1/2/3 mark of 15-12 is going to be better than most around the bubble. Indiana did outlast Ohio State in a true bubble buster game over the weekend but now with the Buckeyes just out of the field, the Hoosiers have just 2 wins vs the field. A really really good one at Michigan State and Purdue at home but its just 2-9 vs the field...7 of their Q1/2 wins are to mediocre also rans and never weres. When Providence is their best OOC win that is a red flag there. The SOR/WAB of 47/44 is just inches above the cut line. Most years a profile like this would need a deep Big 10 tourney run to feel safe. For Indiana a win in their opening round Big 10 vs Oregon will make them a lock and its still about 60/40 they will not even need that one but that would seemingly lock them into a trip to Dayton in the first 4.
(31) BAYLOR 17-13: Do not let that overall NET of 31 fool you, the Bears are not safe. Great try vs Houston but ultimately another loss and that puts them down to 17-13 and that is murky spot historically. Facing a possible 17-14 with a first round loss to Kansas State/Arizona State in the Big 12 tourney would put their bid in serious jeopardy. Michigan got in a few years back at 17-14 and did have a strong sos like the Bears currently at 5/13 so it can happen, its just more the exception than the rule. 5-11 in Q1 but only 3 of those are to in the field schools. Certainly the win over St Johns non conference is the shiny one. The others over Kansas and at Arkansas. 5-1 in Q2 is strong but only WVU is in the field. Yep 10-12 in Q1/2 is strong but 2-1 in Q3 puts them at 12-13...a loss to KSU/ASU shows the bulky loss total a problem would drop it to 12-14. It is a profile that I have seen left out before. The SOR/WAB still working at 39/41 but it has been slipping. The road mark at 3-9 isnt all that hot.
(44) XAVIER 21-10: Muskateers continue to just churn out wins even if they are not of the Q1 variety. That is okay for now. Its the ratchet 2025 bubble and it works. Admittedly 1-8 in Quad 1 games is butt ugly even with the road win at Marquette. Quad 2 though is a strong 8-2 and shows 2 additional wins vs the field over UConn and Creighton. Note wins over bubbles out Wake and Nova. No bad losses and the 5-0 Q3 mark gets them to 14-10 in Q1/2/3 and there is something to be said for the cleanliness. SOR/WAB at 40/46 pretty much in line for where they sit right now in the pecking order. Big East tourney opener for them is Marquette. A win there is likely to be enough. They could sustain a loss but it will be an agonzing Sunday for sure and they will be extremely vulnerable to bid stealers.
40) NORTH CAROLINA 20-12: Tar Heels had their all their marbles game vs Duke and while they kept it close for a while, it ultimately resulted in defeat which leaves them with a unsightly 1-11 Quad 1 mark. I know I hate to do this moving them into the field but welcome to the bubble in 2025. Ultimately maybe a place holder for a probable bid stealer. The Heels certainly played a tough schedule rated 5th OOC but going 1-11 shows you played them, you had your chance and lost. The sole win was UCLA. 7-1 in Q2 makes it better for a 8-11 Q1/2 but do wins over SMU and Dayton move the needle. 14-12 in Q1/2/3 will keep them in contention but that Q3 home loss to Stanford is one they want back. SOR/WAB is just above the cut line at 43/45 for them here. AD Bubba Cunningham is on the selection committee so keep in mind every avenue is going to be taken to get them into field. First up in ACC tourney will be the winner of Pitt/ND followed by quarters with Wake and possible finals vs Duke. Will it matter? Will the committee already made their decision on UNC before the semis? Tough to say.
OUT
(36) OHIO STATE 17-14: Buckeyes got the thrilling overtime win over Nebby in their first bubble game of the week but failed to lock into the field with a win at Indiana in their 2nd and now bounced out of the field. It is simply the bulky loss total at play here. 14 with 15 coming. Not terrible at 6-11 in Q1 with the big road win at Purdue and additional wins in the field vs Maryland and Kentucky. But now with Texas and Nebraska out, its just 3 wns vs field and they were swept by Indiana. 11-14 in Q1/2/3 is a serious red flag. Their resume is not good enough to get in at 17-15 so they absolutely must win their opening Big 10 tourney game vs Iowa and then take down Illinois in the next round. Getting to 18-15 at least gives them a 50/50 shot but winning an additional game possibly against Maryland might lock it up. Then again how long will the committee be paying attention. One round? two?. SOR/WAB of 49/51 is cut below the cut line.
(67) DAYTON 21-9: Not sure any school benefitted more from the weekend bubble action than the Flyers who soared up the pecking order. The Friday win at VCU was huge giving them their 3rd Quad 1 win and 3 win vs the field. 2 very solid wins non conference vs UConn and Marquette are the big ones here. Think that alot of bracketlogists are deep sleeping on them right now. 3-3 in Q1. 4-5 in Q2 for 7-8 in Q1/2 and 14-9 in Q1/2/3 are pretty solid. Perhaps maybe one too many losses in Q2 to the St Bonnies/GWs of the world. The Q3 loss at UMass is unfortunate because without that loss the profile here is not all that different from schools like Indiana and Xavier. The overall NET not good at 67 and the SOR/WAB while improving still lag behind at 55-59. OOC SOS at 55 should be a plus. Still even as they sit 2nd team out its still less than 50/50 that even a trip to the A10 finals and a loss to VCU get them in. Its likely the committee will not sitting around waiting until Sunday for contigency plans.
(45) BOISE STATE 21-9: Broncos had won 9 of 10 heading into the home finale with Colorado State but suffered not a bad loss but a crushing one nonetheless that prevents them from moving into the field. There are a pair of outstanding non conference wins here over Clemson and St Mary's but they make up the only 2 wins in Q1 2-5. Two additional wins vs field vs New Mexico and San Diego State reside in Q2 where the 4-3 gets them up to 6-7 in Q1/2 which admittedly is a bit soft for a bubble school. Q1/2/3 is only 11 and 8 and 10 wins are coming from Quad 4 and that is a red flag. Plus we have not only a Q3 loss to Washington State but now a barely Q4 inexcusable loss to Boston College. Not going to see many or any bubble schools with Q4 losses in or out and its a concern despite those nifty OOC wins. Also concerned about no quality road win and SOR/WAB of 58/55 which puts them clearly out. Broncs draw San Diego State in the Mountain West quarters which is a bigger game for them to win than the Aztecs who have 2 wins already over them. A win there and I suppose a win over the Lobos in the semis can pull them into the field if the committee is still paying attention. A loss likely ends any real hope though they still may find themselves on the last 4 out line due to attrition elsewhere.
(69) WAKE FOREST 21-10: No matter how many times I try to flush the Demon Deacons out of my analysis, they keep finding ways to keep this turd of a resume floating to the soft underbelly that is the 2025 bubble. Wake was waxed by Duke last week in their last shot at a true marquee victory before the ACC tournament. Just 2-7 in Quad 1 highlighted by a non conference win vs Michigan. Q2 sees a better 6-1 that gets them to 8-8 Q1/2 but even there the only win vs field is to barely in the field UNC....2-7 in that catagory. Note the loss to bubble Xavier. The Q3 bad loss to NC State has eeked into Q2 so Wake has just 2 Q3 losses now..to FSU and Virginia. Perhaps with a clean profile one could make a better case. Yet Bubba is going to Bubba, if UNC cannot get in as the ACC 4th perhaps Wake will by hook or crook. Have seen these weak profiles from ACC get in the last several years, low on Q1 wins, just okay in Q1/2 but because they won alot of Q3 games, the committee throws them a bone and at 14-10Q1/2/3 and with to me worrisome is that their SOR/WAB is actually willing at 42/47. Many bracketologists have counted them out but with a possible matchup with UNC looming in the ACC quarters, that could be the play in game for Bubba and his goons.
(54) COLORADO STATE 22-9: Rams got their first Q1 victory of the season on the road at Boise State to keep them in contention. Rams did get the 2nd seed in the Mountain West tourney yet all the metrics and results put them substantially behind all 3 MW bubbles they finished ahead of. An anemic 1-5 in Q1. Just 2-6 vs the field, 2 Q2 wins over Utah State and San Diego State. The Q2 record gets them to 7-8 and they did complete the sweep of Boise There is zero to offer out of conference with a best win of TCU. Unfortunately for the Rams their profile is held down by 2 Q3 losses to Washington and UC Riverside. Perhaps they could overcome one of those but not both given their dearth of quality wins. 11 of 22 wins come from Quad 4 and the SOR/WAB still sluggish at 56/54. Yet as 2nd seed in the Mountain West tourney, they are playing just as well as anyone right now and will be a legit threat to win the whole thing. They get Nevada/Fresno winner in the quarters to set up a possible matchup with Utah State. A win there and trip to the finals will definitely boost their metrics and push them closer but think they fall short though.
(59) NEBRASKA 17-14: In a mere 3 weeks, Nebraska went from the 8/9 game to not only out of the NCAA tournament but out of the Big 10 tourney as well. About stunning a freefall you will ever see in college hoops. There is season is over. There are no games to be played before Selection Sunday and the committee knows that. Nebby will be up on the board for consideration, discussed and left behind. Metrics have sunk across the board, NET down to 59, SOE/WAB screams no at 61/57. It is a shame too because the Huskers do have 5 wins vs the field....4 of them in Q1...at Oregon, at Creighton, Illinois, UCLA and Indiana. 5-10 in Q1 and 9-12 in Q1/2 would have been workable. But they have 2 Q3 losses...Rutgers just a whisper from Q2 but a bad loss nonetheless and Minnesota, also a Q2 loss to USC which isnt far from Q3 but maybe worst of all with so much on the line this week, first with the loss to OSU and then the committee saw them lose at home albeit a Q2 Iowa by 15 in a listless performance in a game they had to have. No school has made it as an at large being 3 games under 500 and Nebby will not be the first.
(42) TEXAS 17-14: Horns scored an important Quad 1 road game earlier in the week to put them right on the cut line but could not pull of a bubble buster game at home vs Oklahoma and now find themselves in serious trouble. Up to 14 losses and that means 15 is around the corner. 5-10 vs Q1 is not bad considering they have 5 wins vs the field in there...Kentucky, at MSU, Tex A&M, Mizzou and at OK. However 3-4 in Q2 leaves them 8-14 in Q1/2 and just 5-13 vs the field, alot of losses. Non conference has nothing of note with the best win being St Joe's and an embarrassing 285 OOC SOS. SOR/WAB continue to slide at 57/52. At just 10-14 in Q1/2/3, it is no bueno territory for the Longhorsn as they would have to pull of 3 SEC tourney wins (Vandy, TexA&M, Tenn) to fix that and the committee is not waiting around for the Longhorns as a 14th SEC school to show up and play make an at large resume in 3 days.
(49) SMU 22-9: Looks like the odd man out from the ACC. Still in consideration because they went 11-0 in Q3 and there is something to be said for a supposed power 5 conference school going 17-9 in Q1/2/3 games. Yet at 0-4 in Q1, 0-5 vs teams in the field, 0-6 vs top 5 acc schools, a 288 OOC SOS where their best win was SEC bottom feeder LSU and their best overall win was at mediocre Pitt, its hard to make a case for the Mustangs. Even a deep run to the ACC finals which could get them Q1 wins over Clemson and Louisville and 25 wins likely will not be enough simply because the committee will not be paying attention for a resume to be built in 4 days.
OTHERS
(62) UC IRVINE 26-5: The GOOD: Q1 road win over UC San Diego, 14-3 on road, SOR/WAB; 54/51 at least merits consideration. The BAD: one win and just one game vs field, ooc sos of 210, 2 Q3 losses to Cal Northridge and Duquense, 22 of 26 wins are Q3/4, overall NET of 62 not good for a mid major school on the bubble. Some bracketologists are making a push for them as an at large but to me just one win over UC San Diego is just not enough here. Certainly a legit shot at winning the Big West Tourney but the Tritons are the ones with the legit at large chances not the Anteaters.
(53) VILLANOVA 18-13: The GOOD: 4 wins vs the field...St Johns, Marquette, UConn, Xavier. 12-12 in Q1/2/3. The BAD: Q4 loss to Columbia sticks out like a sore thumb. In addition 2Q3 losses to Virginia and Georgetown, 2-7 in Q1, 214 OOC SOS, SOR/WAB: 63/72. The Columbia loss blows up the resume. Even a trip to the Big East finals will not get it done as the committee will have long closed the book on them.
(64) SAN FRANCISCO 23-8: The GOOD: No loss outside of Q1/2, wins over St Marys and Boise State, SOR/WAB: 52/50 is not all that far off the cut line The BAD: 1-5 in Q1, 4-8 in Q2, 11 wins in Q4 alone and a whopping 19 of 23 in Q3/4. Meet Gonzaga in WCC semis so a win there to reach the WCC final will be a metric boost but while they inch closer, they are still likely to fall short so they might as well just be a bid stealer and win the whole damn WCC tourney.
(74) GEORGE MASON 23-7: The GOOD: tie for regular season A10 title (albeit 2nd seed), SOR/WAB of 53/56 puts them in consideration at least. The BAD: 1-3 in Quad 1, no wins vs field , 18 out of 23 wins in Q3/4, 2 Q3 losses to Duquense, East Carolina, awful Q4 loss to Central Michigan. On the board but will not make it out of the committee
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