Okay everyone grab a cup of java and come on in. Always want to hear suggestions and comments and looking forward to take questions during the day Wednesday.
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the school that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 22 conferences projected as one bid leagues
VERMONT AmerEast
LIBERTY Atl Sun
MONTANA Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
UC IRVINE Big West
HOFSTRA CAA
NORTH TEXAS CUSA
WRIGHT ST Horizon
YALE Ivy
RIDER MAAC
BOWLING GREEN MAC
NC CENTRAL MEAC
NO IOWA MVC
ROBERT MORRIS NEC
MURRAY ST OVC
COLGATE Patriot
FURMAN Southern
SFA Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA ST Summit
LITTLE ROCK Sun Belt
N MEXICO ST WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 14 at large bids leaving 22 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down to the 6 line with that last 6 seed not a lock yet.
1: BAYLOR (Big 12), KANSAS, GONZAGA (WCC), SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2: MARYLAND (Big 10), DUKE, LOUISVILLE (ACC), DAYTON (A10)
3: WEST VIRGINIA, SETON HALL (Big East), AUBURN (SEC), FLORIDA STATE
4: PENN STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, KENTUCKY, BUTLER
5: COLORADO (Pac 12), VILLANOVA, OREGON, IOWA
6: ARIZONA, CREIGHTON, MARQUETTE, ?
Here is the pecking order
LAST 6 SEED
1. (34) ILLINOIS 15-7: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-1, road 4-4, SOS 60
Two straight losses has prevented them from locking in but it would take quite a meltdown to keep them out of the tourney. 3 Big 10 roads highlighted by wins at Michigan and Wisconsin. The sweep over Purdue is looking better and better. The Q2 wins over RU and Michigan are also wins of note. Just one bad loss early vs Miami. Trips to PSU and RU loom so holding serve at home to Sparty tonight will be key to avoiding what could be a 5 game losing skid. Still there are 5 Q1 opportunities left for them to also solidify their seeding.
7 SEEDS
2. (27) LSU 17-6: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 6-1, road 4-3, SOS 12
Tigers went from a possible 4 seed to a projected 7 line with 2 straight losses. No shame in losing to Auburn in OT but losing to previous winless in conference Vandy is pretty inexcusable. Yet overall that is just their first bad loss and while LSU has only 1 Quad 1 win over a NCAA projected school in Rhode Island. They do have an impressive number of Q2 wins of quality over Arkansas, Mississippi State, Florida, and Liberty. The SOS strong and you see that in those quality losses. However it is interesting to note 4 losses to fellow bubbles VCU, USC, Utah State and E Tennessee State. There really is no need for the Tigers to panic yet but there is only one Q1 opportunity at home Kentucky and 3 potential ones on the road.
3. (33) WISCONSIN 14-10: Q1: 7-7, Q2: 1-2, road 3-6, SOS 2
Badgers have some sick Quad 1 numbers. 14 games in total so you see why that sos is 2nd in the country. 7 wins which trumps anyone on the bubble. A sweep of Ohio State, a win at streaking Penn State and a win over Big 10 leader Maryland. Oh and we didnt even get to wins over Marquette and Michigan State. Sure the 10 losses are alot and there is a Q3 loss to New Mexico but this is a really impressive profile. The schedule ends favorably with 4 home games. Take care of business for the most part at home and avoid a landmine this weekend at Nebraska and Badgers will be fine.
4. (22) OHIO STATE 15-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-2, road 3-5, SOS 56
Buckeyes got a needed split of road games last week. Important to go at least 1-1 every week in the Big 10. While OSU may be toward the bottom of the Big 10 standings now, remember its body of work. The early season wins over Kentucky and Nova plus the drubbing of Penn State really stand out. Opportunity to build this resume for seeding await as 5 of the 7 are at home before finishing at MSU. Of all the Big 10 schools, the Buckeyes have the most favorable schedule down the stretch and would not be surprised to see a big rise up the Big 10 standings.
5. (32) MICHIGAN 14-9: Q1: 6-8, Q2: 2-1, road 1-5, SOS 36
Wolverine may find themselves in the bottom 4 of the Big 10 but that does not tell the true story of their resume. The win over Sparty solidified and answered any questions about a possible slide. 6 quad one losses is impressive but none better than a neutral site over Gonzaga, still the only school to knock off the Zags. That along with the MSG win over RU likely negates the negative of the 1-5 road mark. Throw in wins over Creighton, Purdue, and Iowa and the Wolverines look set. While every night is a war in the Big 10, their schedule is relatively easier compared to some others.
8 SEEDS
6. (31) RUTGERS 16-7: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 3-1, road 1-5, SOS 46
Scarlet Knights avoided a devastating Q3 loss to Northwestern on Sunday to remain safely as a 8 seed as of tonight. RU has some really good wins here that are improving each day....SHU and Penn State. Plus the Purdue win is also getting a bounce up as of late. Home wins over Wisconsin and Indiana give RU 6 wins (SFA as well) over NCAA projected schools. The Knights remain unbeaten at home 16-0 and that will serve them well as Illinois, Michigan and Maryland are slated to come to the RAC but the road slate is brutal. They are all Q1 games and the road bugaboo has to be taken care of at some point if the Knights move down the seeding line. The big question everyone asks is how many games does RU need to lock up a bid. Well the answer is we won't know just yet but if they can win at OSU tomorrow and take care of Illinois, the Knights will be on the precipice of making history.
7. (17) TEXAS TECH 16-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 4-1, road: 2-4, SOS 53
Red Raiders are starting to roll now and their profile numbers rising. That in large part to the wins over 2 top 10 NETS Louisville and WVU. Its alot harder to pick up quality wins in a top heavy Big 12 this year so it was important to get that Q2 win over Oklahoma last week. There is just a road trip to OU and finishing with Baylor and Kansas that provide Q1 opportunities. So Tech's job is to just avoid the potential landmines of bad losses that exist and the rest will take care of itself
8. (23) BYU 18-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 4-2, road: 3-5, SOS 33
Cougars riding a great overall NET likely due to their strong sos. Note those are losses to Gonzaga, Kansas and SD St! so no one can say they didn't challenge themselves. The wins over AAC leading Houston is their best. They split with St Mary's and beat bubble Utah State. They have avoided any bad Q3 losses though the losses to Utah, Boise St, and San Fransisco are not exactly a plus either. Key for them is just to avoid the bad losses and remember they will have another shot vs Gonzaga before the year is out.
9. (39) ST MARY'S 19-6: Q1; 2-3, Q2: 5-1, road 5-2, SOS 80
Gaels got wallopped by the Zags but don't hold it too much against them. A split with BYU shows these schools are close in the pecking order but BYU has the advantage sos wise. Their biggest win was at a neutral site of Wisconsin. Note like BYU a win over bubble Utah State which establishes both of them with pretty good advantages over the Aggies going forward. The 40 point neutral site win over bubble ASU starting to look better. There are two quad 3 losses and that may be an issue if the Gaels screw up down the stretch. Note a trip to dangerous Santa Clara followed by a trip to Gonzaga could send their profile down toward last 4 in territory.
9 SEEDS
(29) HOUSTON 19-5: Automatic qualifier from AAC
10. (26) PURDUE 14-10: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-2, road 3-6, SOS 52
Boilermakers resuscitated their hopes with a rousing win over Iowa and a much needed road win at Indiana. The overall loss number is bulky considering the schedule is pretty tough down the stretch but like Wisconsin, PU has built up a substantial number of quality of wins to combat that. In addition to the aforementioned wins, they have the MSU beatdown, Wisconsin and key wins over bubbles VCU and Virginia. How many losses can they sustain. Well obviously they are rueing that Q3 loss to Nebby but thinking is if they can hold serve at home and finish 3-3 (a loss to PSU while I am writing this) even that bloated 17-14 mark puts them on the right side of the bubble.
11. (30) STANFORD 16-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-1, road 2-4, SOS 104
Cardinal loss to Utah qualifies as a Q1 loss but its really not a loss they could afford. To make matter worse they blew a huge lead at Colorado and lost. Now losers of 5 of their last 6. they are hitting a do or die moment. They are pretty light on wins with just 4 Q1/2 total. That Sos of 104 is sketchy as well. Certainly beating Oregon is a plus and another possible NCAA team in Oklahoma but they simply need more. Next up is the Arizona schools who provide opportunities for the needed quality wins and later Q1 opportunities vs Colorado and at Oregon exist.
12. (62) INDIANA 15-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 2-1, road: 1-5, SOS 47
Hoosiers have lost 4 in a row and it is clearly paying a price in their metrics. Still there is a huge drop off from the other 9 seeds upwards and the bottom of the bubble. Indiana basically is the top of the teams who really have work to do. All schools from here on down are living perilously right now. The strengths Indiana has are the quality wins over Michigan State and Ohio State in league and a really good win at Florida State. There is ample opportunity in the last 8 as 6 will be Quad 1 games. This could make their case or end their case. At least there are no bad losses but is the kind of profile where that road mark is going to come into play if they cannot nip it in the bud
10 SEEDS
13. (44) XAVIER 16-8: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 5-2, road 3-4, SOS 31
Muskateers quietly moving up the seeding list and are milking that win over SHU for all its worth, Unfortunately while they have a total of 7Q1/2 wins, a deeper dig shows the next best win is at De Paul and the best OOC win is just UConn. Thats a shaky place to be right now. Its obvious that Xavier will need to gather up some more quality wins with an eye toward Butler/Nova at home. However a two game road swing at Butler and SJU is going to be difficult to navigate. A work in progress.
14. (47) USC 17-7: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 5-0, road 5-4, SOS 59
Trojans have 8 combined Q1/2 wins, yet the only ones over likely tourney teams are LSU and Stanford. Not a lot of meat and now a 3 game losing streak. They have a bad Q3 loss to Temple so they do not want to accumulate any sketchy losses in the Pac 12. They will absolutely have to sweep the Washington schools and perhaps the Arizona schools at home. The good news is they are all at home. Prove it.
15. (49) OKLAHOMA 15-8: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 5-1, road 2-6, SOS 49
The Sooners bounce onto the right side of the bubble with that huge win over WVU. Its their only win over a tourney likely team not counting No Texas. But as big as that win is, their next biggest win is just Minnesota. OU has done well to navigate the mediocrity within the Big 12 thus far and they will need to keep that up. Its likely they will need 2 wins though in their 4 quad 1 opportunity of Bay/Tex Tech and on the road at WVU/Kan to have any secure feelings about being in the field.
16. (45) FLORIDA 14-9: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-3, road 2-5, SOS 38
Gators seem to be sliding out of the field. The loss to Ole Miss qualifies as a Q2 but its a bad loss considering they have another bad loss to another Q2 in name only Missouri. The win over Auburn is a feather in their cap victory for sure but besides that there is only Xavier. The SEC slate isnt going to provide many more opportunities perhaps only 3 left, 2 vs Kentucky and home to LSU. They will likely need to win 2 of those 3 to stay in the field. Note a bubble loss to Utah State will not help.
11 SEEDS
(37) NORTHERN IOWA 19-3: Automatic Qualifier from MVC
17. (54) VIRGINIA 15-7: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 3-2, road 3-4, SOS 54
Cavs almost moving up this list by default as the weak bubble melts around them. No one can take their win over FSU away and that is why they are even here. The win over Arizona State starting to take on a better life. Yet the ACC is so bad this year that even UVA's Quad 1 win over Syracuse is virtually meaningless. Watch the 2 Q3 losses to So Carolina and to BC. They cannot afford any slip ups the many dregs in the ACC. Two road games at Va Tech and Pitt loom before home opportunities to make their case vs Duke and Louisville. Don't know how they can hang on here unless they win one of those.
18. (50) WICHITA STATE 17-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 5-3, road 3-3, SOS 70
Shockers have dropped 3 in a row and that last one at Houston by 33 raises some huge red flags about them going forward. The Q1 wins are not quality. UConn and Oklahoma State two middling teams not going to post season. The better wins are home wins vs bubble VCU and Oklahoma. Unfortunately the AAC is trending downward this year and there is only one legit shot at a quality win when WSU heads to Cincy, its almost a must win as will be trips to Memphis and SMU. Going to be hard for their profile to hold with power 6 conference schools having just more opportunities to gain quality wins.
PLAY IN 11 SEEDS
19. (36) RHODE ISLAND 18-5: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 5-1, road 6-3, SOS 39
Rams have amassed a gaudy record and the overall NET number continues to rise but seriously there is a lack of meat on this resume. Riding solely on sweeping VCU who is my last team projected in the field. The next best win is Alabama and that does do much for this profile which shows a Q3 loss to 230 ranked Brown. The SOS of 39 a big plus showing the ooc losses to Maryland, WVU and LSU but figures to take a hit in the coming weeks. As of this writing they just lost at Dayton so looks like only one quality win opportunity in the rematch between the 2, fail to do that and they really need to make sure they do not have any slip ups to weak sauces in A10 play
20. (53) ARIZONA STATE 15-8: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-2, road 4-3, SOS 29
Sun Devils seem to find themselves in this position every season. Their highlight is the win over Arizona and the win Saturday over USC pushed them into the field. Their other two Q1 losses in Washington and Oregon State are Quad 1 wins in name only. Losses to bubbles St Mary's and Virginia. Limited Q1 opportunities include trips to Stanford and USC and a home game with Oregon. Its likely need 2 of these 3 to remain in the field while also involving the usual Pac 12 landmines.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
21. (48) UTAH STATE 17-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 1-1, road: 2-5, SOS 100
Aggies trying to take care of business after a wobbly start to MVC play which dealt them 2 Q3 losses to UNLV and Air Force. They failed in both chances vs SD St. However in such a year where the bubble is pretty thin they fit in here. Their wins on a neutral court vs LSU and bubble Florida plus a win over CUSA leader North Texas are more solid than most around the mendoza line. Cannot afford a slip to three bottom sucker of the MWC but the biggest landmine awaits when finish the regular season at the Pit in New Mexico. Might be a win and your in game.
22. (35) VCU 17-6: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 2-2, road 4-3, SOS 75
Rams are teetering now despite a strong overall NET mark. Riding on just that win over LSU which is looking less impressive as we head to the end of the season. Beyond that there is the win over fellow A10 bubble Richmond and CUSA leader No Texas. Tough to get around 14 of their 17 wins are to Q3 and 4 schools. Losses to bubbles Purdue, Wichita State and Tennessee. Also swept by URI. A 3 game stretch of at Richmond, Dayton, and at St Louis will make or break them. Obviously the opportunity to beat Dayton is worth several wins but fail to do that, the Rams will need to win every game and get to the A10 finals to lock down a bid.
OUT
23. (55) RICHMOND 17-6: Q1: 2-4. Q2:1-1, road 6-2, SOS 82
Spiders have crawled their way to the last spot out moreso due to the carnage around them rather anything they have woven. The good here were the neutral site win over Wisconsin and a road win over Rhody. Tough to annex quality wins in the A10 so the key for the A10 bubbles is to avoid bad losses and win enough key games. The Spiders lost to both Dayton and VCU earlier in the season and their lone remaining shot will be a home game vs VCU. That is a must win no question asked. Cannot see the A10 getting 4 and they still could get 3, so that matchup is almost an elimination bubble game.
24. (60) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-8: Q1: 3-2, Q2:4-4, road 5-4 SOS 75
Wolfpack have emerged as the lone remaining bubble ACC school after Virginia. Winning at Syracuse does count as a Q1 giving them 3 but in reality its not the type of win that moves the needle. There just is a dearth of wins of note and also 2 Q3 losses. Just Wisconsin and the league win over Virginia so there is a ton of work to do here. It will come down to the 2 Duke games and home matchup with FSU. Three scenerios....win 2 and the Pack probably vault in safely, win 1 and they probably still sit in while sweating it out, lose all 3 and that will be it for them.
25. (39) MINNESOTA 12-11: Q1: 3-10, Q2: 3-1, road 1-8, SOS 21
Based on wins alone Minnesota would be in the field. They certainly have the more quality wins than some projected in the field...Penn State, a sweep of Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan. However when they are barely over 500 with 11 losses, its a huge red flag that will simply keep them out until they can win a few more games than they lose. Not always easy in the rugged Big 10 but the Gophers actually get a little soft stretch upcoming where they can accomplish this goal. Iowa/Indy and then at Northwestern. If Minny can sweep them they position themselves back in the field while adding 2 more quality victories. How the committee views the overall strength of the Big 10 is likely to play a major role in Minnesota's ultimate landing spot.
26. (41) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 18-4: Q:2-1, Q2: 2-2, road 8-3, SOS 104
That win at LSU gives them a shot but in reality they are the faves to win the Southern Conference Tourney. Currently tied with Furman at the top, they will look to avenge an earlier loss to them. I know the NCAA has been kind to one low or mid major every year but that Quad 4 loss to Mercer is inexcusable. Should they lose to Furman or any other regular season game, cannot see how their profile could get them in. Now if they run the table and lose in the tourney final, yes they will be given a shot.
27. (71) UTAH 14-9: Q1:3-6, Q2: 4-1, road 1-6, SOS 52
Utes have a profile that I have seen before and it will drive the committee to pull their hair out. Some stunning quality wins...Kentucky and BYU plus wins over bubbles Stanford and Minnesota. Yet 2 hideous losses to Tulane and Coastal Carolina. So how to balance all that is difficult. The schedule is brutal in the last 7 with games at the Oregon schools, at Stanford, USC and Colorado. Its likely that Utah probably will have to notch a few more Q1 wins. Its certainly possible and the Utes have more upside than most around the bubble because of it.
28. (43) ARKANSAS 16-8: Q1:2-5, Q2:2-3, road 4-5, SOS 32
Razorbacks went from in the field while I was doing this analysis to out of the field with their loss to Tennessee. In fact, Arky is in a freefall since losing in OT to Auburn. The loss last week at Missouri the first nail in the coffin. A win over Indiana is their lone win over a NCAA projected tourney team and that will not get them in. The next best win is sagging Alabama, Moreover too many losses to mediocre SEC schools like the Vols, So Carolina, and Tennessee. Down to 4-7 in the SEC and just 2 Q1 opportunities at Florida and LSU remain and they would need them both. I do not see a form reversal anytime soon
29. (40) ALABAMA 13-10: Q1:1-5, Q2: 3-4, road 3-5, SOS 27
Tide snapped a 3 game skid by rallying to beat Georgia in OT and it probably saved any NCAA hope they had. There is potential here if the Tide can come up big in at least one of their next 2...at Auburn and home to LSU. Bama's feather in their cap win was over Auburn and a sweep would make a statement. Obviously though that's their only Q1 win. There is a win over Richmond and SF Austin as well but its likely they need to do as well as they can vs the medicority in the SEC. There are a couple of warts here..losses to Penn, UNC, Iowa State. The kind of stuff you see on a profile from the last 8 in line.
30. (46) CINCINNATI 15-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 5-0, road 3-5, SOS 33
Margin of error is so thin for the AAC schools. Last week Tulsa was the projected AAC winner and two losses later they are not even on the bubble. Cincy briefly took over as the AAC projected winner but then loss in OT at UConn and now finds themselves out of the field. Bearcats did beat league leading Houston so that is a really good win, but while the road win at Wichita State is nice, the Shockers profile is fading. Elsewhere there is an okay win over Tennessee. The real thing holding Cincy back is the 3 Q3 losses...Colgate, Bowling Green, and Tulane. Its pretty tough to overcome that many unless you have a significant amount of quality wins and Cincy is just lacking there. Still they get WSU and travel to Houston so opportunity to build the resume exists
31. (58) MEMPHIS 17-6: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 5-2, road 4-2, SOS 83
The Tigers profile is rather middling even as their 3 biggest wins are slowly looking better....Cincy, NC State, and Tennessee....but none of those teams are currently projected in the field so right now everything about them screams NIT. They have two bad losses to Georgia and their most recent to USF. Any chance they have rests with games at Cincy, Wichita State and 2 games with Houston. Nothing short of 3 wins in those games keeps them in it and they will need to also take care of business against the average joes in the AAC.
32. (62) TENNESSEE 14-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-3, road 3-4,SOS 36
Vols at least have some life after getting a must win over Arkansas. Light on quality wins..they beat bubble VCU and won at Alabama plus losses to bubbles Cincy and Memphis. Yet it all comes down to their 5 game gauntlet at the end of the year...at Auburn, at Arkansas, Florida, at Kentucky, and Auburn. Win 3 of those games and the Vols will probably have themselves a tourney worthy resume. Might be alot to ask for.
33. (57) PROVIDENCE 13-11: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-0, road 3-5 SOS 25
Not often you find a school with wins at Butler, at Marquette and Creighton in the nether regions of the bubble but such is life for the Friars. It all stems from the awful performance in the non conference slate. 3 Quad losses...Penn, Northwestern, and Charleston but wait it gets worse...a Quad 4 loss to #306 Long Beach State. This just seems like too much to overcome. The Friars only shot is to probably beat SHU and Nova and pass every eye test as the season winds. Its a shame because they have proven during the Big East slate that they are as good as anyone besides SHU.
34. (52) GEORGETOWN 14-10: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, road 3-4, SOS 6
No one can say that the Hoyas did not challenge themselves and that is reflected in the SOS of 6 but a closer inspection of their 7 Q1/2 wins show that the only real quality win of the bunch was Creighton. Not going to make the tourney beating one tournament team even if you lost to 9 of them. Hoyas are consistent in one thing and that is losing to quality teams. I do not think this will change despite them having 5 more chances in the regular season to notch some.
35. (48) MISSISSIPPI STATE 15-9: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 3-1, road 2-5, SOS: 50
Tigers got a beating at Ole Miss by 25 and that probably sealed their fate. Just not enough here and not enough opportunities down the stretch to pick up quality wins. I suppose if they run the table or 6-1 down the stretch they will have a shot but there is only one quad 1 opportunity at fading Arkansas. Right now their best win is Florida. Wins over Arky and Tennessee are rather meh and there are two Q3 losses. Just do not see it here.
LAST 4 IN: VCU, UTAH STATE, ARIZONA STATE RHODE ISLAND
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, MINNESOTA, EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Just some tidbits to leave you with. At the moment, Rutgers profile continues to hold up well. What is so great is no loss from here on out will be considered a bad loss. Its likely RU's profile overall will not vacillate too much even with losses. Potential to move up looms if they win on the road. I currently have RU as the top 8 seed. In the pecking order they are ahead of 16 other schools. A note that after Purdue who is my 2nd 9 seed, there is an enormous drop off in resumes with beef and the closer you get the last 4 in, the profiles are really bare. Just something to keep in my mind as we go forward.
Things to remember
1. body of work, no one can take your quality wins away...Seton Hall and Penn State are GREAT WINS
2. no loss from here on out is a bad loss
3. two additional quality wins "may" just be enough
Please hit me up with your questions
