Bac's Update Pecking Order: 3/5

[BigEastPhil]

I don't think Oklahoma should be in...they have been awful down the stretch and teams now know how to defend against Tray Young - who is far from being the next Stephan Curry.

Not so sure on ND being a definite...as since when did VT become a measuring stick....if ND beats Duke tomorrow, I'll change my opinion.

 

[shields]

Oklahoma needs to be out.

 

[DHajekRC84]

..if ND beats Duke tomorrow, I'll change my opinion.

Unfortunately if have to agree..

 

[blockm2]

So @bac2therac
Another question. How can unc at 22 & 9 and 11 &7 in the acc ..a #6 seed. In their tourney be projected as a 2 seed overall in the tourney? Or is that lanardi doing the acc thing ( I can see a lower to mid 3 seed)?

UNC is ranked #5 in RPI and #8 in KenPom and has played the #1 SOS in the country. They are currently 11-7 in Quadrant 1 games which is a crazy number of tough games and while they might be the #6 seed in the ACC it's only because they lost a 4 way way tiebreaker. They have the 3rd best conference record and are pretty clearly the 3rd best overall team in the ACC.

edit: and if you want a website that has the actual team sheet info provided in a similar fashion to what the committee will be using try this one

 

[bac2therac]

updating last night

Syracuse failed to take down UNC to probably lock them in the tourney and now move from in the field to out of the field. Still have a shot when the dust settles and the last group of bubble resumes are compared but as of today I have moved them out.

Louisville got a much needed win by beating FSU albeit as FSU fell from Q1 toQ2...there are still some issues with their resume They are just 5-12 in Q1&2 combined. Could they get in without beating Virginia today? Maybe but like Syracuse that could be a 40/60 proposition. Win today and they are in.,

Notre Dame kept their hopes alive by rallying to defeat Va Tech. They are just 2-8 vs Q1 schools. Beating Va Tech at least keeps them in the game but does not put the in the field. They absolutely need to beat Duke. Is that enough? Could be but I wouldnt necessarily say its a certainty, they are behind Louisville in a few metrics for comparison.

Arizona State loses again. This team is complete trash and its a joke that the NCAA committee does not consider conference mark or how you finish. 8-11 in a weak Pac 12. They are soley riding on wins over Xavier and Kansas non conference,. This is hardly the same team as before but the NCAA treats a game in March just like a game in November. They are probably just in for now but that could change depending on a bid stealer or a school like USC/Utah getting to the Pac 12 finals

Oregon topped Washington State to keep their slim hopes alive. Ducks face a must win with Utah today

Washington is done following another bad loss to Oregon State. Losses mounted at the end of the year for an otherwise blah resume despite the win over Kansas.

Marquette averted disaster by edging out De Paul but now need to take down Villanova to have any of entering the tourney as an at large

Oklahoma...see comments for ASU. This team should not be in the tourney losers of 8 of 10. Lose to OSU for 2nd time this year in Big 12 first round. Lot of quality wins and no bad losses. I will say they are likely safe for now but watch Oklahoma State, if the Cowboys beat Kansas they are likely in as it would mark their 3rd win over the Jayhawks, plus OSU has several metrics that compare well with OU.

Texas moved to all but in status with their win over Iowa State. Thinking they have done enough without having to beat Texas Tech but with the uncertainty with the sheer amount of B12 bubbles I am hesitating to officially call them a lock

Overall it is extremely tight around the bubble right now. Really hard to figure out how to place each school but this is what I think of at this point

IN

1. Texas
2. Butler
3. Providence
4. Kansas State
5. Saint Bonaventure
6. UCLA
7. Baylor
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Louisville
11. Arizona State

OUT

12. Oklahoma State
13. Syracuse
14. Nebraska
15. Penn State
16. Marquette
17. USC
18. Notre Dame
19. Boise State
20. Utah
21. Oregon
22. Mississippi State
23. Washington


Last 4 in: ARIZONA STATE, LOUISVILLE, ALABAMA, OKLAHOMA
Last 4 out: OKLAHOMA STATE, SYRACUSE, NEBRASKA, PENN STATE

 

[shields]

Oklahoma should be out.

 

[bac2therac]

Oklahoma should be out.

I agree...if they factored in how you finish. I would take Oklahoma, Alabama, Arizona State and add in Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Penn State

 

[shields]

Best thing would be let Okie and PSU play the play in game.

 

[blockm2]

Best thing would be let Okie and PSU play the play in game.

the hard part is projecting what you think the committee WILL do versus what they think you SHOULD do. Most people don't exactly agree with the criteria they use and those criteria can change over time.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What if BC loses in the final of the ACC championship?

edit..5 minutes later. scratch that....they'll need a loan to play in CBI. they arent going to beat Clemson

 

[bac2therac]

301 non conference schedule would do them in...if it is truly body of work then no they shouldnt go for getting to ACC finals...at this point they are 2-12 vs Q1 schools..if they lose in the finals that is 4-13, with only 3 Q2 wins...21-15 overall record. I would not put them in but I am sure ESPN would be talking them up

 

[bac2therac]

Louisville falls to Virginia missing an opportunity for a needed feather in their cap win. Going to be a sweating it out for sure. I will say I like their profile better than Syracuse's but if Notre Dame beats Duke today they are going to be in serious trouble.

Kansas State just beat TCU....they are clearly in now...that means just 10 bids are left

 

[bac2therac]

and this is why I love college basketball in March....Bama-A&M....Bama hits shot to go up 2 with 16 seconds, A&M comes down hit a 3 to take lead with 4.3....Bama guy goes end to end with a layup to win the game for Bama and keep their NCAA hopes alive where a loss would have blew up any chance they had for an at large bid.


Bama is now 18-14...they are no lock even with this win....the next loss puts them at 18-15 and thats alot of losses and only 3 games above 500. Last year, Vandy got in at 19-15 with better metrics. I think Bama needs to win one more which means beating Auburn...prove they belong.

 

[StevieB160]

Vandy got in last year to the 8-9 game - got in easily.

 

[bac2therac]

Vandy got in last year to the 8-9 game - got in easily.

Vandy deserved to be in last year but they were way overseeded...should have been 11, 10 at best

Alabama I do not think deserves to be in unless they beat Auburn

 

[DHajekRC84]

I know ND gets in if they beat Duke....whatever. But I saw last night their OOC SOR was like 168? really? and 2-8 Q1... hum.

 

[bac2therac]

Providence has all but locked in with their win over Creighton

Okie State falls to Kansas, there is a case to be made for them especially on a weak bubble but I think they fall short because of that sloppy out of conference SOS

 

[DHajekRC84]

So now we can start hearing why even with this loss ND still belongs.. :grimace::popcorn:

 

[King of S]

Middle Tennessee loses Championship game. They should still be in but another bubble has burst (ND, Syracuse).

 

[DHajekRC84]

So now we can start hearing why even with this loss ND still belongs.. :grimace::popcorn:

ha ha.. Lanardi..who looks like he is sitting in a throne has started already. Did anybody watch them play like crap the first game, beat Va Tech who collapsed, or the beat down tonight? please stop.

according to the analysts there are 103 Tourney Teams per the eye test. [eyeroll]

 

[bac2therac]

Middle Tennessee loses Championship game. They should still be in but another bubble has burst (ND, Syracuse).

Not so fast...losing in the cusa finals is one thing..losing in the quarters to the 9 seed is another. I believe they also have a bad loss to Marshall

 

[King of S]

Not so fast...losing in the cusa finals is one thing..losing in the quarters to the 9 seed is another. I believe they also have a bad loss to Marshall

They are ranked 24th in the country. Do you have them in?

 

[DHajekRC84]

Omg...I can't believe I'm starting to agree with jay bilas on some things. Thought he did good early b1g tourney and his "way too far" comments on the replay reviews of fouls....

 

[bac2therac]

They are ranked 24th in the country. Do you have them in?

AP rankings mean nothing. Its going to be very close. Remember Illinois State last year from MVC...MTSU can easily be left out. It helps that the bubble is terribly weak but why should MTSU go over Nebraska for example.

 

[bac2therac]

Bulter is IN after toppling Seton Hall.

9 spots left.

 

[RUChoppin]

Bulter is IN after toppling Seton Hall.

9 spots left.

We have more conference tourney wins at MSG than SHU has over the last two years. lol

 

[StevieB160]

The "weak bubble" for the 13th consecutive year. A rite of passage in March.

 

[bac2therac]

The "weak bubble" for the 13th consecutive year. A rite of passage in March.

full of bloated power conference toads and sketchy mid majors

 

[G- RUnit]

There’s excellence out there but the bracket guys chose to ignore it. Like a 13-5 B1G Nebraska team? South Dakota at 26-7. Said all along MTSU could lose but bracket guys ignored 24-6 ODU and 22-9 WKU. Boise State is 23-7. 24-9 Belmont? Bracket guys mocking ND with one of best players in country hurt but think nothing of throwing in literally dozen loss Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Cuse, etc. Davidson and San Diego State two of hottest teams in the country nary a peep. PSU getting shafted. Quadrants are stupid. Reward excellence. I would just personally go to 128. Eliminate NIT. One more game and all good teams get in and all conference champions. No real worry about team 129. More TV. More $$$. More betting. Conference tourney results would determine seeding so something to play for. So Purdue and MSU would not recieve a higher bid than conference champion Michigan. Still have rankings, brackets, seedings, conference ratings and fun. Gives the smaller schools a chance. Whole nation would be watching on selection Sunday.

 

[blockm2]

Quadrants are stupid. Reward excellence.

Maybe you could define “excellence” as you think it should be rewarded. I mean South Dakota? They have 1 win against anyone that can be considered decent this year (S Dakota St) but they also have 2 losses to them. They have several other bad losses and no other good wins. You call that excellent??????

How do you think excellence should be measured?

 

[Mr Magoo]

Oklahoma and Arizona State are “in” according to many analysts because of their “body of work”. However, both teams are staggering to the finish line. They say it shouldn’t matter “when”’a team wins or loses (which, by the way, I disagree with).

Why doesn’t this same logic apply to teams like Norte Dame? If it’s truly body of work, then those loses they racked up when Bonzie Colson was out should count just like any others. I don t want to hear they are a “different team” now. You can’t pick and choose the criteria based on the team. By that logic, Oklahoma and ASU are also different teams now. Oklahoma is a one-trick pony that doesn’t play defense and whose freshman Pony has hit a wall and ASU looks like a mess of an old ABA team that just runs up and down the court firing up the first shot from anywhere while Hurley screams at everyone like a lunatic.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The Pac 12 is going to get 4-5 in, to the dismay of a lot of people...Oregon is still alive after last night and i have Arizona, ASU, UCLA and SC in....if Oregon wins the Pac 12 tournament (unlikely but not impossible), it would be 5 and heads would explode.

 

[shields]

Arizona State does not belong.

 

[TDIrish27]

I hope Ok State and Middle Tenn get bids personally.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Give credit to Middle Tenn for scheduling up in the OOC schedule. They played Vandy, Miss, Auburn USC, and Miami but only beat the two weakest...Vandy and Ole Miss.

They also played in a crap league and would up with 7 losses...including Marshall twice ( a good team) and USM when it counted. 7 losses is a lot for a mid-major at-large team.

I don't think they can get any more "on the fence" than they are.

 

[rufeelinit]

A little off topic but what happened with FSU this year? They looked very talented when they played RU earlier this year and had a big guy out injured. Leonard Hamilton seems to "less with more" than most.

 

[blockm2]

Why doesn’t this same logic apply to teams like Norte Dame? If it’s truly body of work, then those loses they racked up when Bonzie Colson was out should count just like any others. I don t want to hear they are a “different team” now. You can’t pick and choose the criteria based on the team.

It isn’t picking and choosing it’s the the official criteria changed to allow the committee to allow for a team having a significant player return from injury and discounting losses while the player was out.

We don’t have to agree with that logic, but it is the way it currently works.

 

[G- RUnit]

Maybe you could define “excellence” as you think it should be rewarded. I mean South Dakota? They have 1 win against anyone that can be considered decent this year (S Dakota St) but they also have 2 losses to them. They have several other bad losses and no other good wins. You call that excellent??????

How do you think excellence should be measured?

So they lost @ Duke, @ TCU and @ UCLA. Two loses to a very good South Dakota State team. That is five of their eight losses in a 26-8 season. That to me is excellence. Give them a shot rather than a 14 loss Alabama team. How are those quadrants helping MTSU? Joke.

 

[blockm2]

So they lost @ Duke, @ TCU and @ UCLA. Two loses to a very good South Dakota State team. That is five of their eight losses in a 26-8 season. That to me is excellence. Give them a shot rather than a 14 loss Alabama team. How are those quadrants helping MTSU? Joke.

So their best quality is losing games? They have zero impressive victories. That is not excellence. You seem easily impressed by beating bad teams.

 

[Mr Magoo]

It isn’t picking and choosing it’s the the official criteria changed to allow the committee to allow for a team having a significant player return from injury and discounting losses while the player was out.

We don’t have to agree with that logic, but it is the way it currently works.

Thanks for clarifying. That makes a little more sense, but I don't agree with it (not that it matters). I'm sure if it wasn't ND, Duke, or a few others, it wouldn't even be discussed. The team would be out, as they should be.