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Bac's Update Pecking Order: 3/5

recapping last night

Louisville sits and waits right on top of the bubble after the loss to Virginia

Notre Dame loses to Duke and just does not have the resume to get in

Butler last second heroics beat Seton Hall and punch their dance ticket

Providence outlasts Creighton to all but clinch a spot

Marquette falls to Nova and I think they really needed that win

Alabama won a buzzer beater over A&M that they absolutely had to have but they may need to bea Auburn to stay in the field

Mississippi State kept their slim hopes alive by beating LSU...they need to reach the SEC finals and that will start with beating Tennessee in the quarters today

Middle Tennessee State became the first of the projected autobid conference champs from one bid leagues to loss...that a bad loss considering So Miss has a rpi of 205 and it was the quarters not the finals. They sit in the last 2 in, last 2 out line

Kansas State punched their ticket for sure by knocking off TCU

Texas falls to Texas Tech, they still look very good, would leave them just short of a lock...they have slight seperation over the other Big 12 bubbles

Oklahoma State fails to knock down Kansas for a third time...sitting right there, some good things and some bad things..tough call

Baylor falls to WVU and with all the bubbles so tightly packed they are in a very precarious situation right now, could go either way

Utah is done after losing to Oregon, the Ducks meanwhile keep their hopes alive but really think they have to win it all to get a bid, USC up next.

USC took care of Oregon State to take are of business but absolutely must beat Oregon today, I do not think the profile can sustain a loss here

UCLA looked good in a win over Stanford, Bruins may have an ever so slight edge on the other Pac 12 bubbles right now...Arizona up next, of course win locks them in, a loss sends them near to the cut line

Boise State falls to Utah State, with 8 losses and combined with MTSU loss, Broncs really are finished...NIT bound



Projecting just 9 open spots left....feel the first 2 are all but locks but will play things conservaitve for now, 3 and 4 have some seperation from the rest, I think 5 through 16 are incredibly tightly packed..,not much differentiating them. Going to be very hard to get this field of 68 right now...lots of meh bloated resumes around the bubble. Now this list will end up getting "scrubbed" on Selection Sunday when the dust settles and the bubble teams remaining are then grouped against each other


IN

1. Texas
2. Providence
3. UCLA
4. St Bonaventure
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
7. Louisville
8. Middle Tennessee State
9. Baylor

OUT

10. Oklahoma State
11. Arizona State
12. USC
13. Syracuse
14. Nebraska
15. Penn State
16. Marquette
17. Notre Dame
18. Mississippi State
19. Boise State
20. Oregon
21. Utah
22. Washington



LAST 4 IN: BAYLOR, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, LOUISVILLE, ALABAMA
LAST 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, ARIZONA STATE, USC, SYRACUSE
 
A little off topic but what happened with FSU this year? They looked very talented when they played RU earlier this year and had a big guy out injured. Leonard Hamilton seems to "less with more" than most.
It is about coaching. Saw them play Virginia. Almost one but lost due to coaching and undisciplined play (related to coaching). Some bonehead moves like FSU down 2 shooting foul shots and they have no one on the foul lanes. Could not come up with a reason why you would do that.
 
wow Alabama down 10 at half, backs against the wall goes on a ridiculous run to blow out top seed Auburn...likely securing their bid but with Georgia and Miss State still lingering in the SEC tourney, I will stop short of saying definite.
 
Good night to more than four B1G teams. I believe that ship has sailed.
 
Wtf is wrong with Bruce pearl.? He seems to be on the edge an awful lot lately. Apparently had on after the on court confrontation with a bama coach.
 
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Providence takes down Xavier in OT...Friars have punched their dance ticket...only 8 spots left

bid steal alert....San Diego State up big on Nevada 25-11....I have been noticing the Aztecs late season surge, this team is for real. If Nevada goes down they will get selected as an at large....that will steal a bid and it might mean that St Marys may get thrown back near the cut line and Middle Tennessee's spot is in jeopardy as well
 
I agree that Nevada will probably get an at-large bid but how the heck did that team win 27 games. They look absolutely terrible against SD State (currently down 33). They look like a small jump-shooting team that can’t shoot and doesn’t play D. Maybe it’s just a bad game but their best win is against Rhode Island, I believe. Their RPI is a very high 12. I think they are in, but I just don’t see it.
 
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So now we can start hearing why even with this loss ND still belongs.. :grimace::popcorn:

Unbelievable. Bracket boy now has ND as the first team out. They lose big and advance per this shrill. Wow.
 
I agree that Nevada will probably get an at-large bid but how the heck did that team win 27 games. They look absolutely terrible against SD State (currently down 33). They look like a small jump-shooting team that can’t shoot and doesn’t play D. Maybe it’s just a bad game but their best win is against Rhode Island, I believe. Their RPI is a very high 12. I think they are in, but I just don’t see it.

I think they are a small jump-shooting team that can shoot but didn't shoot well today
 
It might be Louisville, ND and Cuse all on the outside looking in with the Mountain West getting 2....The question is whether the Pac 12 actually gets 4 (Arizona, ASU, UCLA, USC).

I have ASU, USC in and Baylor Cuse/ND out.....only question is whether Alabama going 1-1 in the next 2 days (vs Kentucky and potentially the SEC Final), is enough to bump Louisville....That would be a lot of ACC pedigree getting chopped down....

On a separate note, I know it's not super popular but people keep talking about the NIT as if its some sort of minor league tournament....

Your NIT teams could be Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Maryland, Penn State, Nebraska, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Georgia, LSU, Boise State, BYU, among some others I can't think of at the MAC, AAC, Conf USA etc.

That's a competitive field of teams (At least to me it is)....There is a lot of ground to make up to be on the bubble line.
 
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Wow Thought MTSU and Nevada could lose on this thread. Can Rhode lose and I would be three for three?
 
Providence takes down Xavier in OT...Friars have punched their dance ticket...only 8 spots left

bid steal alert....San Diego State up big on Nevada 25-11....I have been noticing the Aztecs late season surge, this team is for real. If Nevada goes down they will get selected as an at large....that will steal a bid and it might mean that St Marys may get thrown back near the cut line and Middle Tennessee's spot is in jeopardy as well

@bac2therac While on the surface Nevada losing to SDSU is a bad thing for the ASU's of the world stealing a bid. ASU crushed SDSU in the beginning of the year so that adds another impressive win to their strong non-conference resume.
 
@bac2therac While on the surface Nevada losing to SDSU is a bad thing for the ASU's of the world stealing a bid. ASU crushed SDSU in the beginning of the year so that adds another impressive win to their strong non-conference resume.


its a Q2 win now...thats okay but nothing to move the needle ...more striking on their resume is their lack of winning in a mediocre league....USC and UCLA at home, alot of conference losses. It will be close. Their OOC wins rate favorably compared to Cuse and UL who also do not have much on their resume
 
recapping yesterday

Alabama routs Auburn to reach the SEC semis, I am going to go ahead and put them in as a lock given what is beneath them here

Providence tops Xavier in OT to reach the Big East finals and have locked themselves in

Mississippi State lost a close one to Tennessee to end any flickering hope the Bulldogs had

UCLA takes Arizona to overtime before falling. Bruins sit on the last 4 in line....65/35 shot of going

USC knocks off Oregon to reach the Pac 12 finals vs Arizona. Trojans have a great overall rpi of 33 but seriously lack stuff on their resume..went 0-4 vs ASU/Ariz/UCLA, their big wins of the year are only to N Mex St and Middle Tenn St..their Q1 and Q2 wins are not as impressive as they seem filled with Pac 12 mediocrity. I would say they might as well beat Arizona as they sit right on the bubble.

St Bonaventure stayed good by beating Richmond, a win today vs Davidson should be good enough for them but if not, its going to be scary for them and they better hope Rhody wins today as well.

Nevada falls to San Diego State and will be stealing a bid from the at large pool, a lock to be invited...not good news for the bubble


Updated Pecking Order

IN

1. St Bonaventure
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. St Mary's
5. UCLA
6. USC
7. Louisville

OUT

8. Oklahoma State
9. Baylor
10. Arizona State
11. Syracuse
12. Middle Tennessee State
13. Nebraska
14. Penn State
15. Marquette
16. Notre Dame


I would say that St Bonaventure and Texas have some seperation and OU still looks safe. St Mary's, UCLA, and USC are better than 50/50...but its that last spot..Louisville where there is not much seperating them at all from a grouping that goes down to Syracuse. I think those last 5 schools are fighting for that one spot. I think the way things turned out with Nevada stealing a bid from the bubble, Middle Tennessee State's prospect dropped dramatically as only so many mid majors are given a bid and it might be capped at two....St Mary's went from lock status to back onto the bubble because of Nevada's loss. A bid stealer from the A10 like Davidson or St Joes might take that bid away from the Gaels. Nebraska and Penn State hopes continue to ride on the selection committee looking at something other than what the official criteria is. I have seen that happen before so that is their hope but certainly playing the Big 10 tourney last week has certainly had an impact because those schools are just not being talked about with their games so far in the past.


LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, USC, UCLA, ST MARY'S
LAST 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, BAYLOR, ARIZONA STATE, SYRACUSE
 
@bac2therac

Who are your 1 seeds right now? Does Xavier stay a 1 with loss to providence?

Can Cincy or UNC take a 1 with a tournament championship?
 
Cincy and URI both pull it out

only potential bid stealer out there right now is Davidson who will meet St Bonaventure in the A10 semis
 
and St Bonaventure goes down to Davidson in A10 semis. So the Bonnies wait...they better hope URI wins tomorrow and not Davidson because that will move the Bonnies very close to the cut line..but it might be St Mary's that gets tossed in that case
 
why should St Bonaventure get in over Nebraska. The Bonnies were 14-4 to Nebby 13-5...A10 was 11th rated conference to Big 10 6th. STB beat URI, Buffalo, and Syracuse. Nebraska beat Michigan and Penn State

Bonnies have 2 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss to Niagara. Nebby has a Q3 loss to Illinois
 
Haven't seen St Bonny play until a little today but if Davidson wins, St Bonny is out as there is no way the A-10 will have 3 bids. If St Bonny is up for a bid, Davidson would have snatched it from a conference foe if it wins tomorrow. Schmitt at St Bonny is a real good coach...sort of like Tim Cluess....both who do the most with their talent and at difficult places to recruit - but can't seem to move ahead to bigger conferences. Wonder if Hurley leaves, would Cluess be a candidate at URI?
 
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