ADVERTISEMENT

Caleb McConnell Draft Analysis - from The Athletic

Doctor Worm

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Feb 8, 2002
27,812
19,539
113
The Athletic did a detailed analysis on their Top 75 draft prospects. Conveniently, McConnell was #75. This would project him as a third round draft pick, which unfortunately is not a thing.

They did a lengthy analysis on McConnell, which I think can be summarized thus: If he somehow develops a jump shot, he'll be in the NBA. If he doesn't, he won't.
 
The Athletic did a detailed analysis on their Top 75 draft prospects. Conveniently, McConnell was #75. This would project him as a third round draft pick, which unfortunately is not a thing.

They did a lengthy analysis on McConnell, which I think can be summarized thus: If he somehow develops a jump shot, he'll be in the NBA. If he doesn't, he won't.
G-League to improve game, Europe an option
 
don't expect him to get drafted, but I see him playing in the G league next year. With some scoring consistency, he'll get a chance.
 
The Athletic did a detailed analysis on their Top 75 draft prospects. Conveniently, McConnell was #75. This would project him as a third round draft pick, which unfortunately is not a thing.

They did a lengthy analysis on McConnell, which I think can be summarized thus: If he somehow develops a jump shot, he'll be in the NBA. If he doesn't, he won't.
Link please.
I know its behind a pay wall but i can't find it on athletic site
 
In the not too distant future the best shooting coaches will be among the highest paid coaches in basketball get one of the best and it’s a competitive advantage
 
I think he can do it. I don’t know what it is about his shot, but it always looks like he’s pushing it/short-arming it. He just needs to get confidence in it and let it fly.
 
The Athletic did a detailed analysis on their Top 75 draft prospects. Conveniently, McConnell was #75. This would project him as a third round draft pick, which unfortunately is not a thing.

They did a lengthy analysis on McConnell, which I think can be summarized thus: If he somehow develops a jump shot, he'll be in the NBA. If he doesn't, he won't.
Yep, good summary - would love to see him improve his shot, since we know he plays good enough D.
 
His path to the NBA is as a 3 and D player. The NBA covets those type of players. The problem is that he does not have a reliable jumper at this time. He needs to develop that in a place like the G league.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rokodesh
His path to the NBA is as a 3 and D player. The NBA covets those type of players. The problem is that he does not have a reliable jumper at this time. He needs to develop that in a place like the G league.
If he has not developed a reliable 3-point shot by this point, I don't see that suddenly developing in the G League.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MiloTalon13
Link please.
I know its behind a pay wall but i can't find it on athletic site
A fairly easy Google search should bring the link up. You need a password to open or download the file but if you subscribe to The Athletic you'll be able to read the preview and get the password.
 
A fairly easy Google search should bring the link up. You need a password to open or download the file but if you subscribe to The Athletic you'll be able to read the preview and get the password.
Thanks. I was looking for a top 75, but it's top 100, lol.
 
I think he can do it. I don’t know what it is about his shot, but it always looks like he’s pushing it/short-arming it. He just needs to get confidence in it and let it fly.
Honestly I think with the amount of effort and energy he put into his defense he just didn't have the legs to be a consistent shooter.
 
How many guys get that comment?
If he could shoot he’d be in the NBA
I hope it happens for Caleb but that’s a relatively common thing to hear
 
How many guys get that comment?
If he could shoot he’d be in the NBA
I hope it happens for Caleb but that’s a relatively common thing to hear

It is - but remember, these scouting reports are focused on projecting best case scenario upside. What Caleb has going for him is literally the polar opposite. I’m not saying he’s going to get drafted, or even end up with a 2 way deal, but the thing is, when you get to those later second round picks and two way contracts - the decision isn’t always about what goes into those scouting reports. There could be a utility role for Caleb today on a roster with major defensive holes. He’s good enough for that right now whereas plenty of guys forecasted to be picked ahead of him need development to be able to help an NBA team even though the scouting report is more bullish on their max potential.
 
His vertical, form and release was never the same after his back surgery.

But his 3P% fell off his sophomore year, prior to the back surgery.

Prior to his first game, he had to have foot surgery over the summer. He came into his freshman season shooting .357 with the line at 20' 9". That year he suffered a hip injury, and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum and sports hernia in the off-season.

As a sophomore, he shot .280 with the line pushed back to 22' 1.75". In the offseason, he slipped two discs in his back and had to have surgery.

As a junior, he missed the first 11 games of the season, and came back shooting .204 for the remainder of the year.

As a senior, he shot .271 after his first healthy offseason, which was more in line with his sophomore year shooting at the current 3pt-line distance prior to his back injury. In the subsequent offseason, he suffered a knee injury.

As a 5th year, he missed the first 3 games still rehabbing his knee, and came back to shoot .203

***

His one good season from range was with an arc that was 15.75" closer than it was his next four years. One or two steps inside the line, he still had a good mid-range shot - but those "toe the line" threes as a freshman were only worth 2 points the rest of his college career.

The NBA line is even further back at 23' 9", another 19" farther than the NCAA line. It would be difficult for McConnell to suddenly start hitting consistently at that distance.
 
Last edited:
If he has not developed a reliable 3-point shot by this point, I don't see that suddenly developing in the G League.
Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot when he came into the league. Technique can be learned. He'll get a chance somewhere.
 
Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot when he came into the league. Technique can be learned. He'll get a chance somewhere.

Over his first 5 seasons, Leonard's progression went .205 at 18 (20'9"), .291 at 19 (20'9"), .376 at 20 (23'9"), .374 at 21 (23'9"), and .379 at 22 (23'9").

McConnell's progression went .357 at 18 (20'9"), .280 at 19 (22'2"), .204 at 20 (22'2"), .271 at 21 (22'2"), and .203 at 22 (22'2").

I don't think there's really a comparison there.

I think McConnell will get a chance somewhere - but expecting him to become a "3 and D" guy is asking a lot. He's a mid-range jumper guy, and that's a shot that doesn't have much of a home in the NBA these days.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doctor Worm
They moved the line back
Yes, but the line moving back had nothing to do with the awkward shooting technique from the side of his head that he displayed this year. I wonder if whomever is responsible for him shooting that way is the same person designing our inbounds plays - LOL.
 
Look at it this way.
RHJ hasn't shot well enough or consistent enough in the G-League o get a steady job in the NBA yet and he is miles ahead of Caleb.

Yes, outliers happen - like Kawhi. But they are still outliers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MiloTalon13
I'll take a crack at McConnell's shooting issue. Maybe the type of defense he plays taxes his physical abilities at 100% and he has nothing left for his shot. This goes to practice too.. maybe he trains his body hard to go hard on D but doesn't save anything for shooting practice.

All athletes have different.. uh.. "gas tanks" and different "build". Maybe once he worked hard to not get pushed around out there he lost his smoothness in shooting. Maybe if he never did that he wouldn't have been a defensive star. Maybe some imaginary athlete would have more.. uhh.. leeway to do both.

I wish him luck of course.
 
Yes, but the line moving back had nothing to do with the awkward shooting technique from the side of his head that he displayed this year. I wonder if whomever is responsible for him shooting that way is the same person designing our inbounds plays - LOL.

I believe one of the first things RHJ said upon starting NBA Draft training in 2022 was fixing his jump shot and raising his release.
Something many of us pointed out going back to his "I'm returning" IG video in summer 2021.
Seems to be a theme?

Wish I could find where he said that.
 
But his 3P% fell off his sophomore year, prior to the back surgery.

Prior to his first game, he had to have foot surgery over the summer. He came into his freshman season shooting .357 with the line at 20' 9". That year he suffered a hip injury, and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum and sports hernia in the off-season.

As a sophomore, he shot .280 with the line pushed back to 22' 1.75". In the offseason, he slipped two discs in his back and had to have surgery.

As a junior, he missed the first 11 games of the season, and came back shooting .204 for the remainder of the year.

As a senior, he shot .271 after his first healthy offseason, which was more in line with his sophomore year shooting at the current 3pt-line distance prior to his back injury. In the subsequent offseason, he suffered a knee injury.

As a 5th year, he missed the first 3 games still rehabbing his knee, and came back to shoot .203

***

His one good season from range was with an arc that was 15.75" closer than it was his next four years. One or two steps inside the line, he still had a good mid-range shot - but those "toe the line" threes as a freshman were only worth 2 points the rest of his college career.

The NBA line is even further back at 23' 9", another 19" farther than the NCAA line. It would be difficult for McConnell to suddenly start hitting consistently at that distance.

I agree. But for his realistic possibilities in the NBA - improving 3-PT shooting isn’t much of a factor. He’d be coming in as a defensive spark for short stretches to ground a team. Mainly he needs to polish up his midrange game (that’s where he can keep defenses honest), how he finishes in transition, and sort out his FT issues (he’s a good career shooter but struggled down the stretch). Those are areas he can realistically still improve with dedicated professional training. He has a real chance to become a solid utility player. He must be able to convert though on points turning defense into offense. That’s the key for him.

There was a bunny fast break lay up off a steal that he missed in the G-league camp. That kind of thing can’t happen often if he’s going to carve himself a role. He must become more dependable on those.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: RUChoppin
In the not too distant future the best shooting coaches will be among the highest paid coaches in basketball get one of the best and it’s a competitive advantage
It's amazing that it took so long for NBA teams to put shooting coaches on their staffs. It's equally amazing that more college programs haven't done it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MiloTalon13
But his 3P% fell off his sophomore year, prior to the back surgery.

Prior to his first game, he had to have foot surgery over the summer. He came into his freshman season shooting .357 with the line at 20' 9". That year he suffered a hip injury, and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum and sports hernia in the off-season.

As a sophomore, he shot .280 with the line pushed back to 22' 1.75". In the offseason, he slipped two discs in his back and had to have surgery.

As a junior, he missed the first 11 games of the season, and came back shooting .204 for the remainder of the year.

As a senior, he shot .271 after his first healthy offseason, which was more in line with his sophomore year shooting at the current 3pt-line distance prior to his back injury. In the subsequent offseason, he suffered a knee injury.

As a 5th year, he missed the first 3 games still rehabbing his knee, and came back to shoot .203

***

His one good season from range was with an arc that was 15.75" closer than it was his next four years. One or two steps inside the line, he still had a good mid-range shot - but those "toe the line" threes as a freshman were only worth 2 points the rest of his college career.

The NBA line is even further back at 23' 9", another 19" farther than the NCAA line. It would be difficult for McConnell to suddenly start hitting consistently at that distance.
If he needed back surgery after that season then he had an injury that season. He has a shot because he was a 2 time defender of the year. How that translates we don’t know but we should all be rooting for him. I know I am.
 
If he needed back surgery after that season then he had an injury that season. He has a shot because he was a 2 time defender of the year. How that translates we don’t know but we should all be rooting for him. I know I am.
He hurt his back after the season was over, per articles written at the time.
 
It's amazing that it took so long for NBA teams to put shooting coaches on their staffs. It's equally amazing that more college programs haven't done it.
Yup. I think every staff has a guy who they’d say is their shooting coach but it’s one of many responsibilities and they don’t dig as deep as a dedicated coach would
Get team 3 pt and FT percents up just a smidge and that’s huge
 
He hurt his back after the season was over, per articles written at the time.
Yeah right. Every 19 year old kids gets back surgery the first time they injure it. I remember reading this was a lingering problem but whatever the case may be, it’s none of our business. I’m still rooting for.Caleb. He did a lot for RU Hoops.
 
Yup. I think every staff has a guy who they’d say is their shooting coach but it’s one of many responsibilities and they don’t dig as deep as a dedicated coach would
Get team 3 pt and FT percents up just a smidge and that’s huge
The San Antonio Spurs have had a dedicated shooting coach for awhile. Kawhi Leonard went from a bad 3 point shooter to being an excellent one. Granted, not every bad shooter is going to turn into Steph Curry, but you can at least turn a bad shooter into someone who can knock down open shots on a somewhat consistent basis.
 
Yeah right. Every 19 year old kids gets back surgery the first time they injure it. I remember reading this was a lingering problem but whatever the case may be, it’s none of our business. I’m still rooting for.Caleb. He did a lot for RU Hoops.
His own words:

“I was about to come back to school (in July) and I was playing basketball and got bumped real hard,” he said. “It turned out I had two slipped discs in my back, L3 and L5, and had a bulge in L4.”

Entirely possible this was a developing problem before then, but he pointed to a single event between his sophomore and junior years.
 
Last edited:
The San Antonio Spurs have had a dedicated shooting coach for awhile. Kawhi Leonard went from a bad 3 point shooter to being an excellent one. Granted, not every bad shooter is going to turn into Steph Curry, but you can at least turn a bad shooter into someone who can knock down open shots on a somewhat consistent basis.

How many guys in the NBA consistently knock down 3s that were bad shooters over 4 years of. College?
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT