COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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I could write volumes on this but I won't. But I will hit a few highlights, just off the top of my head...
- We know a ton now about the virus and its evolution and what it does to infect patients via the spike protein and the ACE pathway to get into lung/endothelial cells.
- We know a lot more about the infection progression, medically, and what that means with regard to contagiousness at each point in the progression. We also know a lot more about which groups and conditions are risk factors for more severe disease/death.
- We've made some progress with treatments, although slower than we should have, largely due to the unnecessary preoccupation with ineffective HCQ. But at least now know that remdesivir and tocilizumab have some medical beneift, as does convalescent plasma, and we know a lot more about how to procedurally treat patients who become severely ill.
- We're likely going to have much more effective antibody cocktail treatments in 2-3 months, plus some vaccines by the end of the year.
- No way would we have come close to having antibody cocktails 8 months after virus discovery and vaccines 11 months after discovery, even 10-15 years ago, and 30 years ago, we wouldn't have even had antibody treatments and a vaccine would've taken 3+ years.
- As an aside, we only need 60% to get the vaccine to come very close to herd immunity, which is somewhere between 55-80%, assuming we have ~5% already infected.
- We know far more now about how the virus is transmitted and how that can be stopped - we actually knew much of that pretty well by the end of February, but failed to follow our own pandemic playbook. Shame on us now if we don't all mask up and social distance from here on out, though - if we do that and continue with strong testing (and improve tracing/isolating), we can keep transmissions/deaths quite low but we need better leadership to make that happen.
The Fox article is simply a hit piece. NY had 1 case and had run <10 tests by 3/4, so there was zero warning of the coming tidal wave of cases, since the Federal Government completely bungled testing - and retrospective analyses showed NYC alone likely had 10,000 cases by 3/1! NY didn't hit 1000 tests per day until 3/13, when it should've been running 10,000 tests per day. So yeah, NY (and NJ, which was in a very similar boat) responded later than we could have, but most of that is due to flying blind into a pandemic. I have criticized Cuomo, DeBlasio and Murphy for not issuing stay at home orders by about 3/15, instead of 4-5 days later, as they had enough info to close by about 3/15. But the hatchet job in that article about PPE/medical supplies is way, way off base - that was all supposed to be the responsibility of the Feds, not the states, as the Feds are supposed to plan for a national response to a national security threet.
If we all work masks and practiced social distancing and had testing/tracing/isolating in place starting in late February, we likely could have avoided much of the first wave without shutdowns of whole chunks of the economy, as several other countries did. The shutdowns were implemented because we didn't do any of these other things and they were effective, but it was using a sledgehammer to kill an ant.
No idea who Boomer is but that truly was my first ever post on this or any Rutgers-related thread. I didn't go to Rutgers but someone forwarded me links to this thread a couple of months ago and I found much of the content useful. I have been on here about once every day to catch up on updates I didn't get elsewhere. It has been sad to see the degradation in posts recently. I really don't see how blaming or praising any political party on this thread adds any value. I mean it's not as if ANYONE is persuasive with their "he's an idiot", or "he was wrong", or "you're a moron" posts.
@RUBOB72, I agree that science and the authorities haven't yet distinguished itself in terms of COVID-19. And that there have been ugly and even perhaps politically motivated, shameful episodes. But apart from those, everything else is as should be expected because that is EXACTLY how science works! It doesn't provide miracles without the work of the scientific army, which in itself takes time unless one gets very lucky. Vaccines, for example, need long-term safety data which requires one key ingredient in addition to scientific progress. The phrase "long-term" tells you what that is - TIME!
And Mr. Sports Fan, I assume what made my post "terrible" was either your mistaken assumption that I was someone else with whom you have an adversarial relationship, or perhaps simply that I didn't heap praise on what you posted? Sad either way. Oh well. I honestly was hopeful that I didn't come across as taking "sides" in your blame game. The only sides I am on are that of "virus cure-finder", "virus treatment enabler", and "virus economic impact reducer". Sometimes these are in conflict but the answer isn't black or white. Neither shut everything down forever nor open everything up now is right. We need to be balanced and nuanced on all sides but this forum doesn't enable and honestly these types of fora aren't designed for that.
My reason for coming on here was to find updates on both the scientific side and the news side, which I did for a while. I hope that will continue and the asinine blame game noise go away. If not, I will have to work harder to get what I used to get here. No worries. My life will go on just fine. (BTW, I'm a retired businessman/entrepreneur with a scientific Ph.D. who did life sciences research and later ran a multi hundred million $ business. So I have lived on all "sides" of these issues and can at least appreciate them from the seat of a scientific researcher and separately a business person managing a P&L and real-live people. Still, I'm no coronavirus expert).
I’m not impressed nor should we be. The simple fact is the scientific community has not handled this well . As an entrepreneur with a PhD. ( wonderful) you should offer your services to the government . Agree to disagree is not a bad thing... it at one time was what made this country great. I would suggest you take all of your expertise and head for the country of CHAZ now up and running in Seattle Washington... another city with supposed highly educated entrepreneurs ... as one retired tycoon to another enjoy the sports board ... it is one of the best until CHAZ invades New Brunswick NJ
Good post. This thread has gone off the rails. Anyone who solely watches Fox News or CNN should stop posting your nonsense here.
Absolutely spot on #’s but we are still at square #1 and a long way from getting to where one can say positive progress has been made... People want to hear this...” we have several therapeutics which will prevent the type of loss of life which we have seen with covid19” ... We all get it , this is something new , it is deadly and we will probably see multiple waves in the next year. . People are tired of getting double messages passed their way by our highly educated professional science fraternity... scientists needed to call out exactly what experiments were going on regarding virus building in the USA and in China... when I hear that another 150 to 250 k (or more) could die in this country I don’t see how the medical / scientific professions can BS and continue to make excuses. We even have this gem... Something along these lines...I don’t trust China but I don’t want us to totally remove ourselves from our mutual cooperation with regards to a vaccine. Now this from a highly educated PhD . with patents and connections to pharmaceutical powers.Then we get some troll who only comes on here once and awhile and doesn’t agree with the asinine political drivel. Well guess what it has always about politics ... from everyone... People would prefer to have someone say ... we don’t have the answers nor are we close to a vaccine... but we will have them sooner than later .
You don’t have to be watching CNN or Fox to understand... we have a long way to go and some are happy about that scenario happening.
Was really hoping this virus was gonna f*ck off with the warmer weather and people half ass attempting to social distance and wash their hands. But some of these news reports got me worried.
So what is the science that says the protests have led to spikes in AZ, Florida and Texas but not New York, PA, Mass, and NJ
If those states start taking this seriously I think we are still OK. But they do need to wake up.
Don't forget MSNBC.
Though if you only watched Brett Baier I think you'd be in a good spot.
Yup, they better do that soon. Turning the direction of this virus is like turning the titanic, not a canoe.
I keep hearing from the experts how important masks are, yet I keep hearing these states are just not wearing them.
It's an annoyance, but relative to deaths or shut downs? Need better leadership expressing their importance.
Fear monger at it again.
My thought has been Murphy is focusing on getting our #'s as low as possible in order to move fwd while keeping things under control.
But we better have the contact tracing in place. I feel whether his handling of this is viewed as a success or a failure hinges upon this.
But we better have the contact tracing in place. I feel whether his handling of this is viewed as a success or a failure hinges upon this.
Some people do need to wake up to reality.
So as not to make this strictly a Red state "2nd wave", California is leading the charge in new cases.
I'm one who thought the heat/humidity would help but unfortunately not as much as we'd like if you're not taking other precautions.
Cases in hot/humid India are still growing and hospitals are getting pushed towards capacity from what I've read.. I think it's passed UK as #4 in # of cases now and they're not even testing so well there. It's obviously very dense and hygiene isn't great everywhere so easier for spread. Not sure how good they are about masks either, using them properly even if they have them.
But I believe they are better in terms of recovery rates and death rates. So makes me wonder if the heat/humidity might be somewhat helpful in transmission but also maybe in lowering the viral load a person may get allowing or better chance of survival and recovery. Heat/humidity helps but it seems not a silver bullet in itself unfortunately. It started in their part of the world and it's taken a while to get a foothold possibly due to the heat/humidity but eventually without other measures the weather alone isn't enough to stop spread.
These states at their so called worse are actually closer to NJ best. Death rates are no where near NJ.
drunk data hater. Why should the data scare people if it's nothing to worry about?
The concern is that their cases are starting to take off, positive rates are creeping up and hospitalizations are starting to creep up. Some states are starting to cancel elective surgeries. TBD if deaths follow.
I don’t think anyone is fear mongering or in panic mode. But data is data and things could escalate quickly. Definitely worth keeping an eye on and posting about.
Not drunk clown. Actually worked a long day and haven't had a full brew yet. You must be hitting the booze 24/7 in your mom's basement or underground bunker.
you're allergic to data, you just cry in your store because data triggers you.
Hospitalizations and deaths are now the real number to look at. Unfortunately most states don't report cured or nor do they report how long the stays in hospitals. There are increasing hospital rates but because they were empty. 2 months ago unless you were in really bad shape they said stay at home. Now they need beds filled for $ reasons. So they are accepting more
No you cherry pick your data. I look at all of it not just to support the doom and gloom crap. You get your rocks off reporting meaningless spikes because that is agenda. To bad for you they shut down two CE boards because you no longer have a forum to rage.
Too*, learn english, and I am happy they shut it down. You cherry pick what you say. Show me the post where I said we can't leave our house until a vaccine. I called you out on it last night. You didn't link the post, and stopped responding. We know why. You don't even know that masks work, you deny it. Numbers corrects you on it daily, about outside transmission. You also claimed the virus is coming to the end of its cycle. You just made that up, you had no idea what you were talking about. I expect just like last night you won't show me the post where I said we shouldn't go outside until there is a vaccine.
I didn't respond last night because I work everday and actually have to go to bed. In the last 12 hours you have 29 posts or likes on this thread alone. Must be boring in mom's bunker. Keep the fear mongering alive.
One study saying a virus mutation has made it more infectious...the mutation gives them more spike proteins and makes the spikes more stable. Bright side is the mutation wouldn’t affect the development of a vaccine and hasn’t made the virus more lethal.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/coronavirus-mutations-scripps-gene/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/coronavirus-mutations-scripps-gene/index.html
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